2022 - State of the Recruiting Class thread

[Luckylucci]

For the past few months, I've been reading articles on The Athletic and listening to ISD podcasts stating that ND now has a renewed focus on recruiting with the big boys and that the strategy is paying off. Has this success been overstated? I see that our class is #2 right now and that's awesome, but the average recruit ranking is more or less the same that it has been the past ten years or so.

A couple things from me.

1. It depends on how we close. Landing Sneed, Williams, Merriweather, Pope, Morrison, Nwankpa, Schrauth, and Wagner would go a long way in improving that. And, if that doesn't happen, how many of those do we get? None of those are unrealistic at the present.

2. Due to Covid I still think there is a delay in ratings/rankings updates but I think it's clear ND is firmly in more of these battles even if those ratings don't reflect it. Bama wanted Moore, just at S. Bellamy had offers from OSU, LSU, and Clemson. Maybe he wasn't a take by all but they still offered. That's more than a lot of our previous DB's can say. Walker has offers from Bama and LSU but for DB. Darren Agu was offered by Bama before ND. And, that's just to name a few. If we land the above prospects I think this class will be as good as any of the Kelly era. Whether the ratings system gives Moore the proper bump into a respectable grade. Or, Sneed gets his rightful place as arguably the top LB in the country, is really outside of their control. But, they are getting guys that others want and/or have identified.

 

[Cackalacky2.0]

For the past few months, I've been reading articles on The Athletic and listening to ISD podcasts stating that ND now has a renewed focus on recruiting with the big boys and that the strategy is paying off. Has this success been overstated? I see that our class is #2 right now and that's awesome, but the average recruit ranking is more or less the same that it has been the past ten years or so.

We are #2 right now but Alabama isnt even the top 10...meaning multiple teams will jump us once theri classes are fully signed. We will end up a little better that we have been. I predict a 8-12 class once everyone is signed. Our recent yearly team scores put us around an average 12-13.

 

[Dale]

A class average around 92 should be the goal regardless of where that slots us ranking wise since the class size differentiates a lot at that point. That would be a upgrade of the 89-90 we’ve turned recently. A 55% BCR lines up with getting a 90 in that regard in some ways, the high three stars counteracting the Top 200 type guys. Only way to change that is A) More Top 50 types instead of just Top 200 and B) less three stars.

 

[NDPhilly]

I think the offer list of the 3 stars in this class are substantially better than usual. Our lowest rated commit is Amorion Walker who had committable offers from Bama, LSU, and Michigan. Darren Agu (rated 87) has offers from Bama, PSU, Auburn, FSU, Miami etc... Jayden Bellamy and Devin Moore have even better offer lists. That's what separates this class so far - going up and winning against big time programs even for the lower rated players in this class.


The only commits w/o 4 star offer lists IMO are Hinish, Craig, and Raridon - Excluding Zeigler bc he committed so early.

 

[Cackalacky2.0]

A class average around 92 should be the goal regardless of where that slots us ranking wise since the class size differentiates a lot at that point. That would be a upgrade of the 89-90 we’ve turned recently. A 55% BCR lines up with getting a 90 in that regard in some ways, the high three stars counteracting the Top 200 type guys. Only way to change that is A) More Top 50 types instead of just Top 200 and B) less three stars.

Right. Bama and OSU will have a BCR this cycle over 80%. Clemson a little less I think but still in the hihg 70's. ND has been around 50-55% under Kelly.

 

[Dale]

Right. Bama and OSU will have a BCR this cycle over 80%. Clemson a little less I think but still in the hihg 70's. ND has been around 50-55% under Kelly.

and we’re at 61% right now. So ignore the addition of Sneed, Williams etc for the time being if let’s say 3 of the current three star group get bumps that quickly is 78% (!!)

That group is Moore, Bellamy, Raridon, Craig, Walker, Agu, Hinish

 

[RDU Irish]

I am dumb, what is BCR?

I think NIL will get us an initial bump in talent. If not now then when? ND is playing that card pretty aggressively so if we can capitalize and back it up with results (NIL results not just on the field) we could be witnessing a level up moment for ND recruiting.

 

[NDIrish88]

Blue chip rate

 

[Rogue219]

The laughable bad takes and ignorance is getting out of hand.

The world isn't imploding because we lost a guy who isn't near the top of our boards. Christ. R-E-L-A-X.

This is a tale as old as time.

 

[WilliamWallace]

Not sure where to put this, and apologies if already posted. It appears ND has picked up a new offensive recruiting coordinator. Could help us in landing a RB committed else where.

Either way here’s the article I found at ND Insider,

https://www.ndinsider.com/story/spo...-aid-offensive-recruiting-analyst/7917714002/

 

[BrownerandFry]

and we’re at 61% right now. So ignore the addition of Sneed, Williams etc for the time being if let’s say 3 of the current three star group get bumps that quickly is 78% (!!)

That group is Moore, Bellamy, Raridon, Craig, Walker, Agu, Hinish

While that is very very intriguing for the 2022 class, it will be in 2023 the the Blue Chip Ratio really takes off. We often start slow, but Keeley and Vernon are a nice start.

We can dream of adding Rhett, Bowen, Tate and the rest....

Now with Dre Brown the whole cadre is in place.

There is one interesting anomaly. It appears that none of the five best recruiters on on the offensive side:

one might surmise it
is Freeman/ Elston
Mickens
Oleary (early returns, the Decision Desk is not yet making a call)
and Brian Polian

(McNulty is really hard to call. He seems nearly perfect so far)

Yet, if we close with Schrauth, Wagner, Williams and Merriweather, that would be quite a haul.

The offseason project is clear: Have the offensive recruiting staff catch up to the competence of the defensive recruiting staff.
Polian could be a wild card here.

But it's a simple meeting for Kelly to host;

all hands in the room. All egos checked at the door.

And always, always look forward rather than back.

Fix the problem, not the blame..

 

[tussin]

While that is very very intriguing for the 2022 class, it will be in 2023 the the Blue Chip Ratio really takes off. We often start slow, but Keeley and Vernon are a nice start.

We can dream of adding Rhett, Bowen, Tate and the rest....

As someone who has been here for 10+ years now, it's always "wait till next year's class." Also have to disagree that we often start slow, our early commits are always high 4-stars (usually o-line prospects).

We are recruiting well right now, but I'll believe an elite class when I see one on NSD.

 

[Cackalacky2.0]

As someone who has been here for 10+ years now, it's always "wait till next year's class." Also have to disagree that we often start slow, our early commits are always high 4-stars (usually o-line prospects).

We are recruiting well right now, but I'll believe an elite class when I see one on NSD.

99 percent of the time I’d agree but the 23 class is shaping up to be able to one NDs best all time classes simply because so many elite recruits have some sorting ND connection or affinity and Freeman has shown he is capable so far of closing. Can the O close too? It has the makings of a top 3-5 class. Maybe LL, Dale or Crus can back me down a bit?

 

[Irish du Nord]

99 percent of the time I’d agree but the 23 class is shaping up to be able to one NDs best all time classes simply because so many elite recruits have some sorting ND connection or affinity and Freeman has shown he is capable so far of closing. Can the O close too? It has the makings of a top 3-5 class. Maybe LL, Dale or Crus can back me down a bit?

Not that this hasn't happened before ('21 class comes to mind), but our O-Line board for '23 looks very promising.

 

[Dale]

For the past few months, I've been reading articles on The Athletic and listening to ISD podcasts stating that ND now has a renewed focus on recruiting with the big boys and that the strategy is paying off. Has this success been overstated? I see that our class is #2 right now and that's awesome, but the average recruit ranking is more or less the same that it has been the past ten years or so.

It is now up to 91 post Sneed, while we have sat 89 - 90 pretty consistently. So the question becomes very easy. Even without updates, which I think majority would say should net positive, do they land the guys they have on their board now and see that only creep higher or do they have to expand the board and see it pull down?

 

[NDIrish88]

It is now up to 91 post Sneed, while we have sat 89 - 90 pretty consistently. So the question becomes very easy. Even without updates, which I think majority would say should net positive, do they land the guys they have on their board now and see that only creep higher or do they have to expand the board and see it pull down?

I'd imagine it would creep higher or at the very least, stay flat to what it is now.

 

[NDdomer2]

It is now up to 91 post Sneed, while we have sat 89 - 90 pretty consistently. So the question becomes very easy. Even without updates, which I think majority would say should net positive, do they land the guys they have on their board now and see that only creep higher or do they have to expand the board and see it pull down?

Agu decommit also raises our average.

I like looking at average but there's something to be said for quantities as well. I think every single one of us was happy to have him in the class.

There's currently an over reaction to offensive recruiting right now. Not being and the level the defense is currently doesn't mean it's "bad".

Plenty of time for them to finish strong as well.

I think some perspective is always nice. Tommy is in his second year (first real on campus recruiting as OC due to covid) after the previous OC almost caused a mutiny.

Meanwhile, we hired the hottest young DC commodity on the market after our previous two best two DCs.
​​​​​​
I think it's understandable for the Defense to be steps ahead.

 

[Trait Expectations]

It is now up to 91 post Sneed, while we have sat 89 - 90 pretty consistently. So the question becomes very easy. Even without updates, which I think majority would say should net positive, do they land the guys they have on their board now and see that only creep higher or do they have to expand the board and see it pull down?

We expect a number of players to have healthy bumps: Gobaira, Mickey, Sneed, Moore, Morrison, A. Walker, Ty Chan and potentially others.

We should be considered the favorites for two WRs in the .9500 range. We are in the mix/near the top for some highly rated defensive players: Kanu, Lucas, Moss (less so), Nwankpa

We have a chance to add Schrauth and a lower possibility to add one of Wagner or Rice (very low).

Each of those mentioned players would raise the average a good deal and many of our current commits should see small to large bumps in ratings. I don't think I'm being a homer with the players I listed above. I'll be shocked if we don't finish above a .9100 average, especially considering we're not looking at adding any special teams players.

 

[Whiskeyjack]

Agu decommit also raises our average.

I like looking at average but there's something to be said for quantities as well. I think every single one of us was happy to have him in the class.

There's currently an over reaction to offensive recruiting right now. Not being and the level the defense is currently doesn't mean it's "bad".

Plenty of time for them to finish strong as well.

I think some perspective is always nice. Tommy is in his second year (first real on campus recruiting as OC due to covid) after the previous OC almost caused a mutiny.

Meanwhile, we hired the hottest young DC commodity on the market after our previous two best two DCs.
​​​​​​
I think it's understandable for the Defense to be steps ahead.

It's a little more than that. Despite coming in with the reputation of a 4-vert spread guru who could "manufacture offense" at will, Kelly's hallmark at ND has been defense. With the sole exception of Van Gorder, all of his DC hires have been good, and our consistency on that side of the ball is what has given us such a high floor recently. So while I'm thrilled about Freeman's hire and his apparent prowess on the recruiting trail, he's taking something we were already good at and bringing it to the next level.

For comparison, here's how Kelly's ND offenses have ranked:

'10 - 61st
'11 - 26th
'12 - 25th
'13 - 37th
'14 - 25th
'15 - 8th
'16 - 44th
'17 - 13th
'18 - 28th
'19 - 25th
'20 - 17th

Only one elite unit, two that might be described as "acceptable" for where we want this program to be, and eight that are not remotely close to good enough for us to compete with 'Bama and Clemson. It's our offense that needs a transformative coordinator, and thus far, Rees hasn't shown me anything to indicate he's going to be that guy. Love him for a lot of reasons, not least of which is the way he allowed us to smoothly and efficiently transition away from Chip Long. But the concern over our offense isn't just "Freeman > Rees on the recruiting trail".

 

[benneboy]

It's a little more than that. Despite coming in with the reputation of a 4-vert spread guru who could "manufacture offense" at will, Kelly's hallmark at ND has been defense. With the sole exception of Van Gorder, all of his DC hires have been good, and our consistency on that side of the ball is what has given us such a high floor recently. So while I'm thrilled about Freeman's hire and his apparent prowess on the recruiting trail, he's taking something we were already good at bringing it to the next level.

For comparison, here's how Kelly's ND offenses have ranked:



Only one elite unit, two that might be described as "acceptable" for where we want this program to be, and eight that are not remotely close to good enough for us to compete with 'Bama and Clemson. It's our offense that needs a transformative coordinator, and thus far, Rees hasn't shown me anything to indicate he's going to be that guy. Love him for a lot of reasons, not least of which is the way he allowed us to smoothly and efficiently transition away from Chip Long. But the concern over our offense isn't just "Freeman > Rees on the recruiting trail".

It's still too early to make that call one way or the other, but according to your stats he put together the 3rd best statistical season in the decade in his first season as the OC. He did so with a piecemeal wr core.

Now we'll have to see if he can do it with a piecemeal offensive line. If he can match last year's production, or somehow exceed it, I'd think we'd have to be pretty happy about that.

 

[Whiskeyjack]

It's still too early to make that call one way or the other, but according to your stats he put together the 3rd best statistical season in the decade in his first season as the OC. He did so with a piecemeal wr core.

Chip Long gave Kelly his 2nd best statistical season in 2017, but we all saw how that turned out.

Now we'll have to see if he can do it with a piecemeal offensive line. If he can match last year's production, or somehow exceed it, I'd think we'd have to be pretty happy about that.

As an alum who's fandom only really began in 2002 with O'Leary's resume scandal, I've been "pretty happy" since 2010. But ND fans are legitimately excited about Freeman's defense. Wish I could say the same for Rees' offense. That's where we really need the help.

 

[Dale]

Chip Long gave Kelly his 2nd best statistical season in 2017, but we all saw how that turned out.



As an alum who's fandom only really began in 2002 with O'Leary's resume scandal, I've been "pretty happy" since 2010. But ND fans are legitimately excited about Freeman's defense. Wish I could say the same for Rees' offense. That's where we really need the help.

To play devils advocate, we haven’t seen “Freeman’s defense”. We’ve seen Freeman’s recruiting.

 

[Whiskeyjack]

To play devils advocate, we haven’t seen “Freeman’s defense”. We’ve seen Freeman’s recruiting.

That's fair, but I'm not making a "stone cold lock of the century... of the week" style prediction that Freeman is going to be our Brent Venables, take us to the promised land, and eventually replace Kelly. It could happen, but that's besides the point.

Some are suggesting that fans are being too hard on Rees in light of Freeman's recent recruiting success. The point of my post was to explain: (1) that anxiety about the trajectory of our offense is well-founded; and (2) that Rees hasn't done much to relieve that anxiety. For a 1st year OC, he definitely over-performed. But we need a lot of help on that side of the ball, and I'm not confident Rees can do what needs to be done there yet. Hope I'm wrong.

 

[NorthDakota]

Chip Long gave Kelly his 2nd best statistical season in 2017, but we all saw how that turned out.



As an alum who's fandom only really began in 2002 with O'Leary's resume scandal, I've been "pretty happy" since 2010. But ND fans are legitimately excited about Freeman's defense. Wish I could say the same for Rees' offense. That's where we really need the help.

TIL that Whiskeyjack is likely only around 40 years old.

 

[Whiskeyjack]

TIL that Whiskeyjack is likely only around 40 years old.

37, bruh. I'm not officially "old" for three more years.

 

[BobbyMac]

To play devils advocate, we haven’t seen “Freeman’s defense”. We’ve seen Freeman’s recruiting.

As a Miami alum, I've seen all of his defenses I need to see. We've got a 4 year track record at Chili Tech, we had nothing on Tommy when we inherited him.

 

[Dale]

That's fair, but I'm not making a "stone cold lock of the century... of the week" style prediction that Freeman is going to be our Brent Venables, take us to the promised land, and eventually replace Kelly. It could happen, but that's besides the point.

Some are suggesting that fans are being too hard on Rees in light of Freeman's recent recruiting success. The point of my post was to explain: (1) that anxiety about the trajectory of our offense is well-founded; and (2) that Rees hasn't done much to relieve that anxiety. For a 1st year OC, he definitely over-performed. But we need a lot of help on that side of the ball, and I'm not confident Rees can do what needs to be done there yet. Hope I'm wrong.

You say Rees outperformed as a first year OC and Rees by his own quotes is extremely knowledgeable in the modern game and knows what needs to change. The two things that are uncertain are A) Implementing said changes B) recruiting.

On A) we will have to see. Not much more can say on that.

On B) The 2021 class recruited at a 69% BCR with a Top 100 QB and 2 Top 150 WRs. The 2022 class, if we assume Williams and Merriweather (certainly a big if still), in 2022 that # would be at 70% at that point with again 2 Top 150 WRs. Not bad eh?

Now A is fair to be skeptical about and B, there is some question on process and projecting what that process will lead to in the future, but there’s stuff there to also see a continued improvement

 

[Pops Freshenmeyer]

It's still too early to make that call one way or the other, but according to your stats he put together the 3rd best statistical season in the decade in his first season as the OC. He did so with a piecemeal wr core.

Now we'll have to see if he can do it with a piecemeal offensive line. If he can match last year's production, or somehow exceed it, I'd think we'd have to be pretty happy about that.

For me, though, style matters. If ND puts together another good offense but does it without opening up the passing game I won’t be excited about it. If they want to swing for the fences they need to develop tools to challenge defenses that they can’t just out-talent in the trenches.

 

[Whiskeyjack]

You say Rees outperformed as a first year OC and Rees by his own quotes is extremely knowledgeable in the modern game and knows what needs to change. The two things that are uncertain are A) Implementing said changes B) recruiting.

On A) we will have to see. Not much more can say on that.

On B) The 2021 class recruited at a 69% BCR with a Top 100 QB and 2 Top 150 WRs. The 2022 class, if we assume Williams and Merriweather (certainly a big if still), in 2022 that # would be at 70% at that point with again 2 Top 150 WRs. Not bad eh?

Now A is fair to be skeptical about and B, there is some question on process and projecting what that process will lead to in the future, but there’s stuff there to also see a continued improvement

Did I give you the impression that I'm freaking out about our offensive recruiting?

 

[Dale]

Did I give you the impression that I'm freaking out about our offensive recruiting?

No. Didn’t think I conveyed a tone of less than calm, just expressing a possible opposite view point. It is the “state of the recruiting class” thread.