2016 Presidential Horse Race

[EddytoNow]

...totally false. Come on Eddy.

It is well known that Mrs. Clinton benefits from media silence, and events in the news other than her....NOT TRUMP. TRUMP has thrived on attention...constant attention.

I know you hate Trump like I hate Lucifer...but what you've just said is inaccurate. People have been bitching since Trump got in that he seems like Teflon. He is not held to account on his statements....now had you said that he will not expand his following because of the things he says...yea.

But his numbers aren't going to drop over any of it either....if that were the case the things he's said, coupled with the intentional misrepresentation in the press of the things he said would have caused that already. The press has successfully put a rope around him, and stopped his growth...adding pence will tighten that rope, but lets not act like Trump is the one who generally benefits from disasters in the news...

I'll concede that Clinton benefits from distractions in the news, as well. Trump's poll numbers seem to be stuck at 38-40%, no matter what happens. When Clinton has a little momentum she creeps up to 45-47%. When her numbers slip, she falls down to the 40% range. Hillary has had a bad couple of weeks news wise, and Trump's numbers remained pretty stable over that time. If Trump can't get a bump in his own numbers when Hillary is down, when can he?

Either way we are in for a troublesome four years. I can't see either candidate getting to 50%, which means there will be more people unhappy with the results than there will be celebrating. I'm going to choke the first time I hear either candidate say he or she has a mandate to do anything.

 

[ND NYC]

Trump improving in key battleground state polls in PA, OH, VA and FL.

always seems to come down to a few states doesn't it?

 

[NorthDakota]

The juxtaposition between Trump and Pence's beliefs set them up terribly for debates. As you said, social issues will become the topic of choice. In which case, one or the other will have a stance that is easily attackable.

LGBT issues? Trump actually has been pretty fair and non offensive in this regard (probably the only thing), but then he has Pence talking about conversion therapy. Doh.

Muslims? Pence didn't support the divisive comments of late... Unfortunately his running partner coined them. Doh

Immigration? Pence supports amnesty, Trump wants to build a huge Trump Wall. Doh.

If it does go economic in debate...

Free Trade? Pence is an unpolegetic supporter of NAFTA. Trump says he'll terminate the agreement. Doh.


How does this possibly work out for them. It's a terrible pairing.

Perhaps the Donald is showing that he can work with someone who doesn't always agree with him.

 

[RDU Irish]

If foreign affairs are a fuster cluck right now why doesn't our former Secretary of State take any blame? Instead it is touted as "experience"? Well Bernie Madoff has "experience" as an investment advisor - would anyone in their right mind take that as a reason to trust him with their money?

 

[phgreek]

If foreign affairs are a fuster cluck right now why doesn't our former Secretary of State take any blame? Instead it is touted as "experience"? Well Bernie Madoff has "experience" as an investment advisor - would anyone in their right mind take that as a reason to trust him with their money?

My head was bobbin, and I laughed...so true from my chair.

 

[phgreek]

I'll concede that Clinton benefits from distractions in the news, as well. Trump's poll numbers seem to be stuck at 38-40%, no matter what happens. When Clinton has a little momentum she creeps up to 45-47%. When her numbers slip, she falls down to the 40% range. Hillary has had a bad couple of weeks news wise, and Trump's numbers remained pretty stable over that time. If Trump can't get a bump in his own numbers when Hillary is down, when can he?

Either way we are in for a troublesome four years. I can't see either candidate getting to 50%, which means there will be more people unhappy with the results than there will be celebrating. I'm going to choke the first time I hear either candidate say he or she has a mandate to do anything.

yea...he has a rope around him, and he can't grow...and I think all pence did was make it so the never Trumpers admit now they are going to vote for him...we all know they are, by and large, because the alternative is Lucifer.

I do know there are GOP women pulling for Lucifer...all I can say is...hope you like continuing to make 75% of what men make ...cause thats what it was in Lucifer's State department... sometimes you need to scratch your head at people. Trump is a meanie, Hillary tells me what I want to hear...well YEA!

Still hoping for an unforeseen miracle...but from my chair it comes down to someone who says some vile things, or someone who says some nice things, but has largely done some vile things...and yea I agree, no one will like the outcome if it is Trump or Lucifer.

 

[NDgradstudent]

You seem like an intelligent fellow, so I'm guessing you can do math. And you probably realize that Dems don't need to win a majority of white Catholics to help their cause, nor do Republicans need to win a majority of Latinos. But those are demographic groups large enough that you can't afford to get trounced among them. And that's where Trump is heading among many demographic groups other than white men.
You can say Bush "pandered excessively" and still only got 40% of the Latino vote (actually 44% in 2004, a high water mark for Republicans), but he would have had a hard time winning states like Florida and Colorado if he'd ignored them (or worse) and only got 20-30% (Romney got 27%). That gets more true every four years. Likewise there are still white Catholics in places like Pennsylvania and Michigan who'll vote for a Democrat if they feel respected, but won't if they feel insulted over their religion. They can be the difference between winning and losing a big state. And that's how you win the White House, by winning over enough of the middle, not by rallying a shrinking base of angry white people.

I wasn't talking about what Democrats "need" to do. I was pointing out that the idea that someone like Tim Kaine will appeal to white Catholics is absurd.

The 44% figure has been discredited. Even if it were true, though, what is the GOP supposed to do with a group of voters where the best the GOP candidate can possibly do is to lose them by 12 points? Keep importing more of them? I can see why you and other liberals want to keep importing these people; they are not so much "undocumented" immigrants as unregistered Democrats. The mystery is why so many foolish Republicans go along with the plan.

 

[NorthDakota]

If foreign affairs are a fuster cluck right now why doesn't our former Secretary of State take any blame? Instead it is touted as "experience"? Well Bernie Madoff has "experience" as an investment advisor - would anyone in their right mind take that as a reason to trust him with their money?

Happy you being that up. If we are doing so badly in this department, how can our experts be taken seriously if they rag on Donald?

 

[GoIrish41]

I wasn't talking about what Democrats "need" to do. I was pointing out that the idea that someone like Tim Kaine will appeal to white Catholics is absurd.

The 44% figure has been discredited. Even if it were true, though, what is the GOP supposed to do with a group of voters where the best the GOP candidate can possibly do is to lose them by 12 points? Keep importing more of them? I can see why you and other liberals want to keep importing these people; they are not so much "undocumented" immigrants as unregistered Democrats. The mystery is why so many foolish Republicans go along with the plan.

Undocumented immigrants don't vote.

 

[phgreek]

Undocumented immigrants don't vote.

and you know that based on their ID numbers...? Sorry had to...

 

[NDgradstudent]

A guy that supported "conversion therapy" for homosexuals and was one of the faces of the recent rash of lgbt legislation.

I'm sure working-class Ohioans are really going to care about that. That is an obsession of the liberal gentry, and nobody else.

If Kaine is picked by Hillary, he will also get absolutely obliterated in vp debates.

Those do not matter much, and they certainly won't matter this year. On the other hand, a Trump-Clinton debate would be RATINGS GOLD!!!

 

[kmoose]

Undocumented immigrants don't vote Republican.

FIFY......

 

[NDgradstudent]

Undocumented immigrants don't vote.

Not yet. The whole point of the Democrats' immigration policy (which is basically to have no borders) is to bring in people who will eventually vote. For them.

 

[pkt77242]

Declassified 9/11 pages show ties to former Saudi ambassador
Not sure where to put this.

 

[BGIF]

Undocumented immigrants don't vote.

... nor do cemeteries, Mickey Mouse, or other sources of Acorn registered voters.


Goebbels wished he had you 80 years ago.

 

[GoIrish41]

Not yet. The whole point of the Democrats' immigration policy (which is basically to have no borders) is to bring in people who will eventually vote. For them.

Yeah. I mist have missed my last cloak and dagger Democrat meeting where that was explained. It's a long game I guess. Sneak into the country, hide I. The shadows for a decade or so, have a child and wait 18 years to swing an election. The DEMS are going to own Washington in in 2044. Can't wait!

 

[Buster Bluth]

Declassified 9/11 pages show ties to former Saudi ambassador
Not sure where to put this.

On the front page of every newspaper in America, for starters.

I wonder, if Americans knew this in 2002 or so, would war have been avoidable?

But this should maybe go to the foreign policy thread? But then again the candidates will certainly have to respond. I'm beyond interested to see how they play it. Clinton has known this since it was written, Trump..well, he's Trump.

 

[BGIF]

On the front page of every newspaper in America, for starters.

I wonder, if Americans knew this in 2002 or so, would war have been avoidable?

But this should maybe go to the foreign policy thread? But then again the candidates will certainly have to respond. I'm beyond interested to see how they play it. Clinton has known this since it was written, Trump..well, he's Trump.

... yet continued to take "donations" to the Foundation.

 

[Buster Bluth]

... yet continued to take "donations" to the Foundation.

Exactly.

 

[NDgradstudent]

Yeah. I mist have missed my last cloak and dagger Democrat meeting where that was explained. It's a long game I guess. Sneak into the country, hide I. The shadows for a decade or so, have a child and wait 18 years to swing an election. The DEMS are going to own Washington in in 2044. Can't wait!

I wouldn't expect you to be at the meeting. If you actually don't think about the electoral implications of mass immigration, you're the only person who doesn't.

Illegal aliens are hardly in the shadows. They speak at congressional hearings, berating Americans for not forgiving them quickly enough for breaking our laws.

 

[Buster Bluth]

Not yet. The whole point of the Democrats' immigration policy (which is basically to have no borders) is to bring in people who will eventually vote. For them.

Sure. but then that street would go two ways.

The whole point of the Republicans' immigration policy is to stop growing the coalition of the opposing party.

More specifically they'd like to work themselves into position to win over the inherently conservative Latinos, but that's tough to do considering their base blames Mexicans for being left behind by the global economy.

 

[NDgradstudent]

More specifically they'd like to work themselves into position to win over the inherently conservative Latinos, but that's tough to do considering their base blames Mexicans for being left behind by the global economy.

The GOP has won the "conservative" Hispanics. The GOP wins 35% of Hispanics. It is not going to win many more, certainly not among the new immigrants who are unlikely to vote for the party that opposes redistribution/racial preferences and supports English. Hispanics speaking English at home are much more likely to be Republican than those who speak Spanish at home. New immigrants are much more likely to depend upon handouts, not speak English, etc. This is apparently news to many GOP politicians, but then there is reason the GOP is the stupid party.

The whole point of the Republicans' immigration policy is to stop growing the coalition of the opposing party.

That's true. The GOP basically finds American voters adequate as they are now. The Democrats prefer to import new ones more amenable to their policies in an effort to transform the country, as Labour attempted to do in the UK. As one of the Labour advisors under Blair, Andrew Neather, admitted several years ago:

"Earlier drafts [of government immigration policy] I saw also included a driving political purpose: that mass immigration was the way that the Government was going to make the UK truly multicultural. I remember coming away from some discussions with the clear sense that the policy was intended – even if this wasn't its main purpose – to rub the Right's nose in diversity and render their arguments out of date."

As Brecht joked, the government, finding the voters objectionable, sought to dissolve the people and elect a new one.

 

[woolybug25]

Question: Is there a more morally corrupt person on this board than gradstudent? I honestly feel sad for him at this point that he is such a shitty human being that he is oblivious to his broken moral compass.

I would add, that I don't want board members to be too entrenched in his comments though, and this is me just throwing an olive branch out. He has no life experiences, he has no children, he has no concept of life outside of what his family has given him. He thinks because he has had opportunities and morally corrupt people telling him how life goes, that he understands the world. But he doesn't know what anyone outside his social level understands, he is incapable of empathy. He thinks, honestly mind, that he has moral high ground. I don't dislike him.... I feel sorry him.

@grad - I sincerely hope that you do something in your life that stretches your horizons. I hope you meet people that have drastically different point of views simply because their life is so much more differently than you. I get it... You're for all intent and purposes a kid... an entitled adult kid... but I honestly hope that you eventually see things that make you see the world from a different lense. It doesn't have to be lense that is mine or even one I agree with... Just one that isn't as shallow and myopic as the one you currently hold.

You're obviously an intelligent guy... But you're also as stupid as the day is long.

 

[EddytoNow]

Sure. but then that street would go two ways.

The whole point of the Republicans' immigration policy is to stop growing the coalition of the opposing party.

More specifically they'd like to work themselves into position to win over the inherently conservative Latinos, but that's tough to do considering their base blames Mexicans for being left behind by the global economy.

Or they'll pass legislation intended to limit voting opportunities of the poor and working class by limiting opportunities for registration, creating long lines in heavily Democratic areas on election day to discourage voting, restricting absentee voting, etc. If all groups vote, the Republicans lose big time.

The policy should be that every American citizen is eligible to vote on their 18th birthday period, and we should all be able to vote through the mail, online, or on a National Holiday created so that everyone has time to get to the polls. Why are the Republicans afraid of all citizens showing up at the polls and voting? It's because that would spell the end of the Republican Party.

 

[zelezo vlk]

Question: Is there a more morally corrupt person on this board than gradstudent? I honestly feel sad for him at this point that he is such a shitty human being that he is oblivious to his broken moral compass.

I would add, that I don't want board members to be too entrenched in his comments though, and this is me just throwing an olive branch out. He has no life experiences, he has no children, he has no concept of life outside of what his family has given him. He thinks because he has had opportunities and morally corrupt people telling him how life goes, that he understands the world. But he doesn't know what anyone outside his social level understands, he is incapable of empathy. He thinks, honestly mind, that he has moral high ground. I don't dislike him.... I feel sorry him.

@grad - I sincerely hope that you do something in your life that stretches your horizons. I hope you meet people that have drastically different point of views simply because their life is so much more differently than you. I get it... You're for all intent and purposes a kid... an entitled adult kid... but I honestly hope that you eventually see things that make you see the world from a different lense. It doesn't have to be lense that is mine or even one I agree with... Just one that isn't as shallow and myopic as the one you currently hold.

You're obviously an intelligent guy... But you're also as stupid as the day is long.

If this is you offering an olive branch, I don't want to see how you offer war.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G900A using Tapatalk

 

[NDgradstudent]

Question: Is there a more morally corrupt person on this board than gradstudent? I honestly feel sad for him at this point that he is such a shitty human being that he is oblivious to his broken moral compass.

I would add, that I don't want board members to be too entrenched in his comments though, and this is me just throwing an olive branch out. He has no life experiences, he has no children, he has no concept of life outside of what his family has given him. He thinks because he has had opportunities and morally corrupt people telling him how life goes, that he understands the world. But he doesn't know what anyone outside his social level understands, he is incapable of empathy. He thinks, honestly mind, that he has moral high ground. I don't dislike him.... I feel sorry him.

@grad - I sincerely hope that you do something in your life that stretches your horizons. I hope you meet people that have drastically different point of views simply because their life is so much more differently than you. I get it... You're for all intent and purposes a kid... an entitled adult kid... but I honestly hope that you eventually see things that make you see the world from a different lense. It doesn't have to be lense that is mine or even one I agree with... Just one that isn't as shallow and myopic as the one you currently hold.

You're obviously an intelligent guy... But you're also as stupid as the day is long.

I'm glad you're taking such an interest in my life, but I don't know what you are talking about. I've never claimed to be the smartest, or most moral, or most experienced, etc., person on IE. Certainly, in graduate school, someone with conservative opinions such as myself meets plenty of people with different "life experiences" and opinions. This is even true at ND, which has far more conservative students than the typical university.

As for my youth, there's not much to say other than that you do not criticize other young posters in this way if they agree with you. So my offense is that I do not agree with you.

What I do think I do is express my opinions and attempt to support them with argument and evidence. I can't think of an instance where I engaged in an ad hominem attack upon another poster here on IE. You, however, have launched ad hominem attacks upon me twice in the past day. So who is behaving like a child?

 

[GATTACA!]

I'm glad you're taking such an interest in my life, but I don't know what you are talking about. I've never claimed to be the smartest, or most moral, or most experienced, etc., person on IE. Certainly, in graduate school, someone with conservative opinions such as myself meets plenty of people with different "life experiences" and opinions. This is even true at ND, which has far more conservative students than the typical university.

As for my youth, there's not much to say other than that you do not criticize other young posters in this way if they agree with you. So my offense is that I do not agree with you.

What I do think I do is express my opinions and attempt to support them with argument and evidence. I can't think of an instance where I engaged in an ad hominem attack upon another poster here on IE. You, however, have launched ad hominem attacks upon me twice in the past day. So who is behaving like a child?

Hilarious coming from the guy that was asking for decorum and calling people mouth breathers at the same time in the Nice thread the other day. Not a day later and he's calling you morally corrupt and a shitty human being.

Guess you gotta just agree with Wooly or deal with being a shitty person.

 

[dshans]

Stop.

Please just stop.

I feel more and more compelled to weigh in on matters political.

I am a raging, fucking liberal; but prefer to occasionally poke and make subtle stabs.

Civil discourse is a good and valuable thing. While I am loathe to undertake the depth of "research"others have done, I have my opinions, educated or otherwise.

Seemingly endless argument on an otherwise innocuous board is tedious and unnecessarily time consuming.

I do read all posts, but find many beyond the pale of simple entertainment.

Just plug me into the Commie/Socialist/Progressive cadre and leave it at that.

Shall I go on?I think not. 'Nuff said.

 

[woolybug25]

I'm glad you're taking such an interest in my life, but I don't know what you are talking about. I've never claimed to be the smartest, or most moral, or most experienced, etc., person on IE. Certainly, in graduate school, someone with conservative opinions such as myself meets plenty of people with different "life experiences" and opinions. This is even true at ND, which has far more conservative students than the typical university.

As for my youth, there's not much to say other than that you do not criticize other young posters in this way if they agree with you. So my offense is that I do not agree with you.

What I do think I do is express my opinions and attempt to support them with argument and evidence. I can't think of an instance where I engaged in an ad hominem attack upon another poster here on IE. You, however, have launched ad hominem attacks upon me twice in the past day. So who is behaving like a child?

Don't play coy, boy. You commented to me, not the other way around. I'm simply acknowledging what everyone on the board already knows of you, but don't bother telling you. There's a reason that there aren't a rash of people coming to your defense (except Gattaca, but he will pop in to take satan's side of it means he can take a shot at me).

I'm going to teach you two lessons today.

1) Don't poke a bear unless you have a plan.
2) Don't use phrases like "ad hominem" multiple times in a paragraph. It shows that you are using a term just to use it. I'm not even entirely sure you know what it means. Grown up pet peave.

Postscript - This one is free, I'm a banker by trade, do you think I don't have conservative friends? Most of my friends are, in fact. But most of them would get up from a dinner table if you made the comments you make on here in real life. I've met plenty of people like you, they are always broadly disliked. Not for the beliefs directly though... Mainly because they play victim like you, while simultaneously throwing underhanded slights to everyone in sight. Be better.

Hilarious coming from the guy that was asking for decorum and calling people mouth breathers at the same time in the Nice thread the other day. Not a day later and he's calling you morally corrupt and a shitty human being.

Guess you gotta just agree with Wooly or deal with being a shitty person.

Did that feel good? Got it off your chest, lil' buddy?

 

[GATTACA!]

Did that feel good? Got it off your chest, lil' buddy?

Classy per usual.

Deflect, insult, and repeat.