2016 Presidential Horse Race

[GoIrish41]

I live in the Midwest and I had to Google him...

The only reason I knew him was the aftermath of his controversial law that enraged the LGTB community, got about 75% of the country to look at him unfavorably and businesses to threaten to leave the state. As I recall, his handling of the aftermath of his signing ceremony for that law was comically bad. His only real time on the national stage was an embarrassment to many in the Republican Party. Probably something to consider when you are vetting a VP candidate. Trump/Pence will be a shit show! But in fairness to Pence, Trump/anybody is going to be a shit show. Republicans will be happy one day that one of their better politicians didn't soil his/ her reputation rubbing elbows with the Donald. Plus Pence adds no value in turning the already red state toward the GOP. No way this pick helps. Lots of ways it can do damage to Trump. Dumb pick!

 

[Whiskeyjack]

The only reason I knew him was the aftermath of his controversial law that enraged the LGTB community and got about 75% of the country to look at him unfavorably and businesses to threaten to leave the government. As I recall, his handling of the aftermath of his signing ceremony for that law was comically bad. His only real time on the national stage was an embarrassment to many in the Republican Party. Probably something to consider when you are getting a VP candidate. Trump/Pence will be a shit show! But in fairness to Pence, Trump/anybody is going to be a shit show. Republicans will be happy one day that one of their better politicians didn't soil his/ her reputation rubbing elbows with the Donald.

That silver lining assumes there will still be a Republican party in 2020.

 

[woolybug25]

This is great. The Donald has spent peanuts compared to CHRC and is looking pretty much tied.

Crooked Hilary has got to be terrified.

Yeah... I'm sure she is shaking in her boots of Mike fucking Pence. Lolz.

 

[GoIrish41]

That silver lining assumes there will still be a Republican party in 2020.

True dat.

 

[Bishop2b5]

The only reason I knew him was the aftermath of his controversial law that enraged the LGTB community and got about 75% of the country to look at him unfavorably and businesses to threaten to leave the government. As I recall, his handling of the aftermath of his signing ceremony for that law was comically bad. His only real time on the national stage was an embarrassment to many in the Republican Party. Probably something to consider when you are getting a VP candidate. Trump/Pence will be a shit show! But in fairness to Pence, Trump/anybody is going to be a shit show. Republicans will be happy one day that one of their better politicians didn't soil his/ her reputation rubbing elbows with the Donald.

While your opinion of Trump is probably rather accurate, your side is also about to vote for the most dishonest, corrupt, morally bankrupt, and completely-without-character-and-integrity candidate in the history of American politics. Trump's a loud-mouthed buffoon at times, but Hillary is simply the worst human being to ever run for high office this nation's ever seen. You can't vote for her and ever again say, with a speck of credibility, that you despise dishonest politicians or how money has taken over politics.

 

[phgreek]

While your opinion of Trump is probably rather accurate, your side is also about to vote for the most dishonest, corrupt, morally bankrupt, and completely-without-character-and-integrity candidate in the history of American politics. Trump's a loud-mouthed buffoon at times, but Hillary is simply the worst human being to ever run for high office this nation's ever seen. You can't vote for her and ever again say, with a speck of credibility, that you despise dishonest politicians or how money has taken over politics.

WoW...

Hey Bish, on a side note, can I come to your house and go pheasant hunting? Trying to tick off thy bucket list items here...I need to take a run at pheasant hunting in South Dakota with my dogs, and once pants suit Lucifer wins, I don't think I'll have the money.

 

[woolybug25]

I think Hilldog will tab Kaine shorty after her visit to Virginia. He's a no brainer, imo. A respected former chair of the DNC from a big state on Virginia. He also gives independents and #nevertrump conservatives a palliative alternative. While not a true "pro life" guy, he's the closest you'll see from a democrat. Kaine also speaks fluent Spanish and is a Catholic, both of which are key.

 

[GoIrish41]

While your opinion of Trump is probably rather accurate, your side is also about to vote for the most dishonest, corrupt, morally bankrupt, and completely-without-character-and-integrity candidate in the history of American politics. Trump's a loud-mouthed buffoon at times, but Hillary is simply the worst human being to ever run for high office this nation's ever seen. You can't vote for her and ever again say, with a speck of credibility, that you despise dishonest politicians or how money has taken over politics.

And the republicans should have won the White House with little effort. Instead they chose a worse human being as their candidate -- a bigot, demeanor of women and insulter of Latinos and Muslims. He has alienated close to 70% of the electorate "telling it like it is." He's not just an arrogant' loud other buffoon ... he is dangerous. I'm not voting for her because I want to. I'm voting for her because I feel like I have to.

 

[phgreek]

And the republicans should have won the White House with little effort. Instead they chose a worse human being as their candidate -- a bigot, demeanor of women and insulter of Latinos and Muslims. He has alienated close to 70% of the electorate "telling it like it is." He's not just an arrogant' loud other buffoon ... he is dangerous. I'm not voting for her because I want to. I'm voting for her because I feel like I have to.

...there is the green party...I'm still mulling it over. I'm mulling over anything on the ballot but Trump and Lucifer.

 

[GoIrish41]

...there is the green party...I'm still mulling it over. I'm mulling over anything on the ballot but Trump and Lucifer.

Normally I'd be with ya. I'd even consider that former NM governor. But the though of Trump is terrifying. My vote goes to whomever has the greatest chance of making certain that doesn't happen.

 

[RDU Irish]

And the republicans should have won the White House with little effort. Instead they chose a worse human being as their candidate -- a bigot, demeanor of women and insulter of Latinos and Muslims. He has alienated close to 70% of the electorate "telling it like it is." He's not just an arrogant' loud other buffoon ... he is dangerous. I'm not voting for her because I want to. I'm voting for her because I feel like I have to.

Actions speak louder than words - unless you are a liberal, then you believe the words and ignore the actions. Or Sticks and Stones, ya know - wait liberals think words are worse than stones too. Somehow Trump calling Hillary crooked is worse than the fact she is actually crooked? Being pissed about people ILLEGALLY in our country is worse than actually being here illegally? Trump buying politicians is worse than the politicians being bought. Need I go on?

Methinks your 70% might be more behind this country growing a pair than you think.

 

[NDgradstudent]

And the republicans should have won the White House with little effort. Instead they chose a worse human being as their candidate -- a bigot, demeanor of women and insulter of Latinos and Muslims. He has alienated close to 70% of the electorate "telling it like it is." He's not just an arrogant' loud other buffoon ... he is dangerous. I'm not voting for her because I want to. I'm voting for her because I feel like I have to.

So which GOP presidential candidates have you voted for over the course of your life?

 

[phgreek]

Normally I'd be with ya. I'd even consider that former NM governor. But the though of Trump is terrifying. My vote goes to whomever has the greatest chance of making certain that doesn't happen.

I feel the same about Lucifer...have said I'd vote Trump before Lucifer. She is all the things Bish said, unquestionably.

But something isn't settled yet for me. Trump is like putting on wet clothes...I don't like how it feels, even if I know I need to put them on. Looking for an alternative...still.

 

[GoIrish41]

Actions speak louder than words - unless you are a liberal, then you believe the words and ignore the actions. Or Sticks and Stones, ya know - wait liberals think words are worse than stones too. Somehow Trump calling Hillary crooked is worse than the fact she is actually crooked? Being pissed about people ILLEGALLY in our country is worse than actually being here illegally? Trump buying politicians is worse than the politicians being bought. Need I go on?

Methinks your 70% might be more behind this country growing a pair than you think.

Well the good news is, we'll know in November.

 

[GoIrish41]

So which GOP presidential candidates have you voted for over the course of your life?

Reagan and Bush Sr.

 

[NDgradstudent]

I think Hilldog

Is this North Korea, where we give our "leaders" nicknames? Ugh.

will tab Kaine shorty after her visit to Virginia. He's a no brainer, imo. A respected former chair of the DNC from a big state on Virginia. He also gives independents and #nevertrump conservatives a palliative alternative.

Yeah, okay.

While not a true "pro life" guy, he's the closest you'll see from a democrat. Kaine also speaks fluent Spanish and is a Catholic, both of which are key.

John Kerry was a Catholic, and Catholics voted for Bush. White Catholics have long since dumped the Democrats. As for Mexicans, they always vote for the party of redistribution/race-based handouts. A candidate being Catholic, or speaking Spanish, do not matter here.

 

[woolybug25]

Is this North Korea, where we give our "leaders" nicknames? Ugh.

Hell if I know, first time I heard the nickname was from a republican. It's not like I made it up.

Yeah, okay.

Do you know of a different dem that is closer to a conservative?

John Kerry was a Catholic, and Catholics voted for Bush. White Catholics have long since dumped the Democrats. As for Mexicans, they always vote for the party of redistribution/race-based handouts. A candidate being Catholic, or speaking Spanish, do not matter here.

All Mexicans vote for handouts? Do you ever read the things you type before hitting submit? You don't see that comment as racist at all? Not at all?


I see you chose my post to respond to instead of goirish's? Didn't expect that? How many elections have you actually voted in, btw? Are you currently a grad student? So another twenty-something that has the world all figured out?

 

[NDgradstudent]

Do you know of a different dem that is closer to a conservative?

Sure, John Barrow. Gene Taylor. There are plenty of others. Tim Kaine is your standard Democrat, not much else to say. I didn't realize that he had a reputation for being "conservative," his ACU rating is 0.

All Mexicans vote for handouts? Do you ever read the things you type before hitting submit? You don't see that comment as racist at all? Not at all?

Right, so when I say "Mexicans," I mean a majority of Mexicans, not all Mexicans, just like when I say "white Catholics," I mean a majority of white Catholics, not all white Catholics. I assumed that was clear. There are no absolutes when it comes to voters, there are only tendencies, trends, likelihoods, etc.

And yes, Mexicans vote for the Democrats because they tend to be poor, and benefit from race-based handouts such as affirmative action programs. It's not because Republicans are "racist," which is the reigning theory among most IE liberals. Bush pandered to Hispanics excessively in 2004, and won 38-40% of them. In fact, a majority of Hispanics have never voted for a Republican presidential candidate in the history of polls, regardless of the candidate's position on immigration, ability to speak Spanish, etc.

I see you chose my post to respond to instead of goirish's? Didn't expect that? How many elections have you actually voted in, btw? Are you currently a grad student? So another twenty-something that has the world all figured out?

I'll get around to all of the posts, don't worry. I've voted in two presidential elections. I certainly don't have the world figured out, but I can read and interpret data. Being poor makes you more likely to be a Democrat. Being non-white makes you more likely to be a Democrat. Being both makes you very likely to be a Democrat.

Btw, I'm not saying that this is wrong. I'm tentatively in favor of a basic income. I'm certainly not opposed to "helping poor people." But its a mystery to me that people think Republicans could realistically out-pander the Democrats in fishing for Hispanic votes. You'll get 30-35%, deal with it and focus on where you can expand the voting base, such as with poorer whites.

 

[irishfan]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">UPDATE: Two senior Trump campaign officials tell <a href="https://twitter.com/PhilipRucker">@PhilipRucker</a> and me that Trump has NOT yet called Pence or other VP prospects</p>— Robert Costa (@costareports) <a href="https://twitter.com/costareports/status/753659271607382016">July 14, 2016</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Could have been a false leak to gauge public interest.

 

[NDgradstudent]

Reagan and Bush Sr.

I'm surprised the Willie Horton ad didn't put you off. The GOP has been "alienating" people for a long time: very often, what alienates one voter wins you two more.

 

[Bishop2b5]

WoW...

Hey Bish, on a side note, can I come to your house and go pheasant hunting? Trying to tick off thy bucket list items here...I need to take a run at pheasant hunting in South Dakota with my dogs, and once pants suit Lucifer wins, I don't think I'll have the money.

Pack your bags and come on, but there are no pheasants near my house. I live right in the heart of the Black Hills, not down on the prairie where the birds are. Nearest pheasant country is 20-30 miles away. I've got a ton of whitetails in my backyard every day and an occasional mountain lion, though. 30 minute drive and you can find more pheasants than you could shoot in a lifetime.

 

[ACamp1900]

Pack your bags and come on, but there are no pheasants near my house. I live right in the heart of the Black Hills, not down on the prairie where the birds are. Nearest pheasant country is 20-30 miles away. I've got a ton of whitetails in my backyard every day and an occasional mountain lion, though. 30 minute drive and you can find more pheasants than you could shoot in a lifetime.

In the mid 90s I visited the Black Hills... do they still have signs everywhere stating "Scene such and such of Dances With Wolves shot here" just randomly all of the place??

 

[phgreek]

Pack your bags and come on, but there are no pheasants near my house. I live right in the heart of the Black Hills, not down on the prairie where the birds are. Nearest pheasant country is 20-30 miles away. I've got a ton of whitetails in my backyard every day and an occasional mountain lion, though. 30 minute drive and you can find more pheasants than you could shoot in a lifetime.

Woohooo! Never let it be said I'm above inviting myself....and my dogs . I miss the taste of whitetails...Mulies are sagey tasting to me.

We can work out a trade...I can put you on some stud lake trout or Kokanee on Flaming Gorge here in Utah. Or Elk, or Mule deer...

 

[Bishop2b5]

In the mid 90s I visited the Black Hills... do they still have signs everywhere stating "Scene such and such of Dances With Wolves shot here" just randomly all of the place??

I've only seen 2 such signs in the Black Hills and one down on the prairie, all in front of places where scenes were filmed.

 

[EddytoNow]

Sure, John Barrow. Gene Taylor. There are plenty of others. Tim Kaine is your standard Democrat, not much else to say. I didn't realize that he had a reputation for being "conservative," his ACU rating is 0.



Right, so when I say "Mexicans," I mean a majority of Mexicans, not all Mexicans, just like when I say "white Catholics," I mean a majority of white Catholics, not all white Catholics. I assumed that was clear. There are no absolutes when it comes to voters, there are only tendencies, trends, likelihoods, etc.

And yes, Mexicans vote for the Democrats because they tend to be poor, and benefit from race-based handouts such as affirmative action programs. It's not because Republicans are "racist," which is the reigning theory among most IE liberals. Bush pandered to Hispanics excessively in 2004, and won 38-40% of them. In fact, a majority of Hispanics have never voted for a Republican presidential candidate in the history of polls, regardless of the candidate's position on immigration, ability to speak Spanish, etc.



I'll get around to all of the posts, don't worry. I've voted in two presidential elections. I certainly don't have the world figured out, but I can read and interpret data. Being poor makes you more likely to be a Democrat. Being non-white makes you more likely to be a Democrat. Being both makes you very likely to be a Democrat.

Btw, I'm not saying that this is wrong. I'm tentatively in favor of a basic income. I'm certainly not opposed to "helping poor people." But its a mystery to me that people think Republicans could realistically out-pander the Democrats in fishing for Hispanic votes. You'll get 30-35%, deal with it and focus on where you can expand the voting base, such as with poorer whites.

And when we accuse Trump and other Republicans of being racists, we don't mean all Republicans, we mean Republicans have a higher tendency, trend, or likelihood of being racists. It used to be true that racists in the old Confederacy were diehard Democrats. That all changed when Attorney General, RFK, sent troops to protect black students attempting to enroll in southern universities. And then Johnson pushed through Civil Rights legislation. As a result, Wallace, an avowed racist who had been a Democrat, ran as an Independent in the 1968 election and the Democrats haven't won the old south since. Guess where those voters went?

 

[connor_in]

Pack your bags and come on, but there are no pheasants near my house. I live right in the heart of the Black Hills, not down on the prairie where the birds are. Nearest pheasant country is 20-30 miles away. I've got a ton of whitetails in my backyard every day and an occasional mountain lion, though. 30 minute drive and you can find more pheasants than you could shoot in a lifetime.

BUT ARE THERE ANY POKEMON??!!??!!??

 

[GoIrish41]

I'm surprised the Willie Horton ad didn't put you off. The GOP has been "alienating" people for a long time: very often, what alienates one voter wins you two more.

This year, it's going to be more like 2-1 the other way. Possibly 3-1. The crazier they get the more people are going to go the other way. And this year's version of crazy is off the charts. Reagan and Bush Sr. were rational men. They didn't go so far right that they turned even their own party against them. It's not a stretch to say Reagan at least had new ideas, a positive message, and a likable standard bearer. Model year 16 GOP has none of those things. They have wacky, and they have a weird mix of old ideas that were tried and failed. They have maybe the most hated man in America delivering a message of hate and fear. This is a brave new world for the GOP. As Wiskey alluded to above, this might be their last hurrah.

 

[BleedBlueGold]

Haha so IF this Pence VP thing is true, that just means Trump is trying to set all time record lows for women's vote. Unreal. Seems like a false leak to me. But if it's true, good grief man, what a god awful pick for VP.

 

[stlnd01]

Right, so when I say "Mexicans," I mean a majority of Mexicans, not all Mexicans, just like when I say "white Catholics," I mean a majority of white Catholics, not all white Catholics. I assumed that was clear. There are no absolutes when it comes to voters, there are only tendencies, trends, likelihoods, etc.

And yes, Mexicans vote for the Democrats because they tend to be poor, and benefit from race-based handouts such as affirmative action programs. It's not because Republicans are "racist," which is the reigning theory among most IE liberals. Bush pandered to Hispanics excessively in 2004, and won 38-40% of them. In fact, a majority of Hispanics have never voted for a Republican presidential candidate in the history of polls, regardless of the candidate's position on immigration, ability to speak Spanish, etc.

Btw, I'm not saying that this is wrong. I'm tentatively in favor of a basic income. I'm certainly not opposed to "helping poor people." But its a mystery to me that people think Republicans could realistically out-pander the Democrats in fishing for Hispanic votes. You'll get 30-35%, deal with it and focus on where you can expand the voting base, such as with poorer whites.

You seem like an intelligent fellow, so I'm guessing you can do math. And you probably realize that Dems don't need to win a majority of white Catholics to help their cause, nor do Republicans need to win a majority of Latinos. But those are demographic groups large enough that you can't afford to get trounced among them. And that's where Trump is heading among many demographic groups other than white men.
You can say Bush "pandered excessively" and still only got 40% of the Latino vote (actually 44% in 2004, a high water mark for Republicans), but he would have had a hard time winning states like Florida and Colorado if he'd ignored them (or worse) and only got 20-30% (Romney got 27%). That gets more true every four years. Likewise there are still white Catholics in places like Pennsylvania and Michigan who'll vote for a Democrat if they feel respected, but won't if they feel insulted over their religion. They can be the difference between winning and losing a big state. And that's how you win the White House, by winning over enough of the middle, not by rallying a shrinking base of angry white people.

 

[Bishop2b5]

Too bad technology hasn't reached the point where we could clone Lincoln, Truman or Reagan. We could use some wisdom & leadership of their kind.