2016 Presidential Horse Race

[GowerND11]

It's an interesting premise... a type of national gentrification. But I want to push back on the implication that it's somehow the fault of the 1% or the 20% or whatever percentile you want to draw the line at. People who succeed don't succeed to get away from the people who don't. They (dare I say "we") succeed by making good decisions because they're the right decisions to make. Most of us don't succeed by greed, we succeed by accident. The thing I really can't figure out is that it's remarkably easy to be successful, which doesn't seem like it should be the case. Common sense would dictate that routine, ordinary decision-making should put you somewhere around the 50% range, but routine, ordinary decision-making will actually put you well into the upper-middle socioeconomic classes. My father is a factory worker with no college education and my mother is an administrative worker with a degree she earned in her 40s and they're well into the 25th percentile of household income. Two schoolteachers making $43,000 each are also in the 30th percentile. What the hell are the other 70% of people doing when two schoolteachers outearn them?

ETA: Obviously, that's a rhetorical question. What the other 70% of people are doing is getting divorced, getting pregnant at 16, dropping out of school, gambling, drinking, burying themselves in debt, and refusing to work hard.

I want to agree with you. I really do. And there are valid points in this post. You're right that is isn't hard for people to succeed. Do the right thing, and generally you will find a decent job, a loving spouse with a decent job, a good circle of friends with a good job, etc.

However, we know that there are so many variables in life that can help someone fail. (notice I didn't say cause) Those divorces reek havoc on young children, let alone teenage pregnancies for the child as well. When you are born in a poor area it is difficult (not impossible) to reverse the cycle. Life, while full of "easy" choices, is still really hard, especially for children and teenagers.

Working as a teacher at a juvenile camp I see so much talent both academically and athletically and ask them what happened? It's so hard for these kids to break the cycle when they are literally taking care of themselves since they were 8. They are loud and obnoxious, not because they are inherently assholes, but because they were conditioned at home to scream and shout in order to get attention. When they see mom and dad selling/doing drugs, they think that's normal. When there is no food in the house, and an older kid offers them $20 to "take this bag to that house," they jump at the opportunity.

There are a lot of factors in play besides just doing it right. I feel like first we need to fix other issues, like the ones you mentioned, but how can we do that? It's easy to find the problem, it's another to solve it.

 

[Emcee77]

It's an interesting premise... a type of national gentrification. But I want to push back on the implication that it's somehow the fault of the 1% or the 20% or whatever percentile you want to draw the line at. People who succeed don't succeed to get away from the people who don't. They (dare I say "we") succeed by making good decisions because they're the right decisions to make. Most of us don't succeed by greed, we succeed by accident. The thing I really can't figure out is that it's remarkably easy to be successful, which doesn't seem like it should be the case. Common sense would dictate that routine, ordinary decision-making should put you somewhere around the 50% range, but routine, ordinary decision-making will actually put you well into the upper-middle socioeconomic classes. My father is a factory worker with no college education and my mother is an administrative worker with a degree she earned in her 40s and they're well into the 25th percentile of household income. Two schoolteachers making $43,000 each are also in the 30th percentile. What the hell are the other 70% of people doing when two schoolteachers outearn them?

ETA: Obviously, that's a rhetorical question. What the other 70% of people are doing is getting divorced, getting pregnant at 16, dropping out of school, gambling, drinking, burying themselves in debt, and refusing to work hard.

Oh, this is beautiful. A more perfect response to the Brooks post could not have been written. You have exactly proven Brooks's point.

Of course, it's not at all easy for most people to do the things that may have seemed "easy" for your parents to do. To find out why, I suggest you take Brooks's advice and take "some responsibility to do one activity that leaps across the chasms of segmentation that afflict this country."

And let me clarify: I did not mean to suggest that it is the elite's fault that they are segregating from the rest of the country in various ways. On the contrary, I think it is an unconscious phenomenon. But it has pernicious effects, like many accidental or unconscious actions.

 

[Whiskeyjack]

It's an interesting premise... a type of national gentrification. But I want to push back on the implication that it's somehow the fault of the 1% or the 20% or whatever percentile you want to draw the line at. People who succeed don't succeed to get away from the people who don't. They (dare I say "we") succeed by making good decisions because they're the right decisions to make. Most of us don't succeed by greed, we succeed by accident. The thing I really can't figure out is that it's remarkably easy to be successful, which doesn't seem like it should be the case. Common sense would dictate that routine, ordinary decision-making should put you somewhere around the 50% range, but routine, ordinary decision-making will actually put you well into the upper-middle socioeconomic classes. My father is a factory worker with no college education and my mother is an administrative worker with a degree she earned in her 40s and they're well into the 25th percentile of household income. Two schoolteachers making $43,000 each are also in the 30th percentile. What the hell are the other 70% of people doing when two schoolteachers outearn them?

ETA: Obviously, that's a rhetorical question. What the other 70% of people are doing is getting divorced, getting pregnant at 16, dropping out of school, gambling, drinking, burying themselves in debt, and refusing to work hard.

It is not easy to be successful when you are raised in a culture where discipline and self-sacrifice are not norms. It seemed easy for you, because your parents made significant sacrifices to raise you counter-culturally and provide you with an excellent education. Fewer and fewer Americans today enjoy that benefit.

I'll expound after I return from lunch with a client.

 

[wizards8507]

I want to agree with you. I really do. And there are valid points in this post. You're right that is isn't hard for people to succeed. Do the right thing, and generally you will find a decent job, a loving spouse with a decent job, a good circle of friends with a good job, etc.

However, we know that there are so many variables in life that can help someone fail. (notice I didn't say cause) Those divorces reek havoc on young children, let alone teenage pregnancies for the child as well. When you are born in a poor area it is difficult (not impossible) to reverse the cycle. Life, while full of "easy" choices, is still really hard, especially for children and teenagers.

Working as a teacher at a juvenile camp I see so much talent both academically and athletically and ask them what happened? It's so hard for these kids to break the cycle when they are literally taking care of themselves since they were 8. They are loud and obnoxious, not because they are inherently assholes, but because they were conditioned at home to scream and shout in order to get attention. When they see mom and dad selling/doing drugs, they think that's normal. When there is no food in the house, and an older kid offers them $20 to "take this bag to that house," they jump at the opportunity.

There are a lot of factors in play besides just doing it right. I feel like first we need to fix other issues, like the ones you mentioned, but how can we do that? It's easy to find the problem, it's another to solve it.

You're right, I was too dismissive. Obviously there are thousands of different scenarios that can play out that can contribute to one's lack of success. The problem with trying to tackle them as a society is that society is ill-suited for nuance. Just like there is no one-size-fits-all cause of these problems, trying to tackle them with one-size-fits-all solutions is destined to fail and to be tremendously wasteful of time and resources in that failure.

It is not easy to be successful when you are raised in a culture where discipline and self-sacrifice are not norms. It seemed easy for you, because your parents made significant sacrifices to raise you counter-culturally and provide you with an excellent education. Fewer and fewer Americans today enjoy that benefit.

I'm sorry, I don't buy it. I was motivated at least as much by the crappy conditions of my impoverished hometown as I was the direct influence from my parents. If a good, stable life serves as an example of how to live, wouldn't a rocky, unstable life serve as an example of how not to live? Nobody is so insulated from the rest of society that they can possibly believe that their little corner of the world is a fait accompli. I've used this example before, but real life isn't "Fast Car" or "Justified."

 

[RDU Irish]

Moral to the story - good guys may not finish first but they sure as hell rarely finish last. Top quartile family earnings and summers off doesn't fit the teacher union play bill.

 

[NDinL.A.]

Words matter. They both state facts and make implications.

Did you not tell a story and say - NEVER have faced blatant racism before Trump came to power. and then close with Ladies and gentleman, Trump supporters! ?

(Hint: You did.)

You then go on to say - All from Trump supporters, never from Cruz supporters - which again is painting a picture.

Which is why I said painting all Trump supporters as racist. You are obviously trying to paint a picture that Trump supporters = racist.

You’re extrapolating something that was never said. It’s not brain surgery – I never said ALL Trump supporters, and I don’t think all of them are racist. But again, I do believe they support his bigotry and enable him (and his supporters) to be that way. It’s pathetic. And not only that, your candidate is a hot mess when it comes to so many foreign and domestic policy issues! That alone should disqualify him for anyone who has half a clue on how this world works. It’s embarrassing.

- The people who were not racists and were mostly indifferent are now finding themselves having a growing resentment against Mexicans and Blacks.

It's the 3rd group that has been growing for years. Frankly, the growth here is 100% understandable. Trump is not responsible for these feelings and opinions. Trump running for office, however, has helped bring a spotlight to these reactions.

Ho.Ly.Shit. You really believe that? There's no way you really believe that. For the love f God, tell me you don't really believe that. So above you say it's never OK to be racist, but here you say you understand why. Wow.

That part is deplorable and a clear signal to where you stand and why we are so far apart on this. Sorry, but racism is never understandable to anyone with half a brain IMHO. You treat people based on their own actions, not their looks or where they come from or how a couple of them treated you. I’ll leave it at that before I say something that will get me banned. Peace.

 

[calvegas04]

Video: Lou Holtz Endorses Donald Trump Before Tuesday’s Indiana Primary | College Spun

Gotta vote for Trump now.

no need to watch cnn anymore... that's all I needed to know.

 

[RDU Irish]

You’re extrapolating something that was never said. It’s not brain surgery – I never said ALL Trump supporters, and I don’t think all of them are racist. But again, I do believe they support his bigotry and enable him (and his supporters) to be that way. It’s pathetic. And not only that, your candidate is a hot mess when it comes to so many foreign and domestic policy issues! That alone should disqualify him for anyone who has half a clue on how this world works. It’s embarrassing.



Ho.Ly.Shit. You really believe that? There's no way you really believe that. For the love f God, tell me you don't really believe that. So above you say it's never OK to be racist, but here you say you understand why. Wow.

That part is deplorable and a clear signal to where you stand and why we are so far apart on this. Sorry, but racism is never understandable to anyone with half a brain IMHO. You treat people based on their own actions, not their looks or where they come from or how a couple of them treated you. I’ll leave it at that before I say something that will get me banned. Peace.

Consider for a moment the constant berating white people take for being white and not empathizing enough with the plight of any given minority. Now hetero vs gay/trans you get the same thing. And God forbid you are raised in any affluence, you must atone for your sins! These are not conservative creations and Obummer has only thrown gas on the fire.

And you absolutely have been painting Trump support as an immoral act of bigotry. You can argue you have not explicitly done so but it is very evident in your posts of the last few weeks.

 

[irishfan]

Ho.Ly.Shit. You really believe that? There's no way you really believe that. For the love f God, tell me you don't really believe that. So above you say it's never OK to be racist, but here you say you understand why. Wow.

That part is deplorable and a clear signal to where you stand and why we are so far apart on this. Sorry, but racism is never understandable to anyone with half a brain IMHO. You treat people based on their own actions, not their looks or where they come from or how a couple of them treated you. I’ll leave it at that before I say something that will get me banned. Peace.

I don't want to speak for Dales, but I do think that there are events that happen that make Trump more appealing to his "third group" of people. Not all of the Trump protests have been rooted in race, but some have and every time it makes his polling numbers go up. The protests in Chicago seemingly had very large numbers of AAs there who were going anti-Trump. That turned ugly quickly with some fights, a bloodied cop, and protesters blocking an ambulance. The protests in CA a couple days ago are similar IMO. People flipping cop cars and holding signs saying "Make America Mexico Again" obviously are extremely counter productive to any anti-Trump movement. And I can guarantee there are people watching those events thinking that in November they'd rather be on Trump's side than the protesters's side.

 

[woolybug25]

Consider for a moment the constant berating white people take for being white and not empathizing enough with the plight of any given minority. Now hetero vs gay/trans you get the same thing. And God forbid you are raised in any affluence, you must atone for your sins! These are not conservative creations and Obummer has only thrown gas on the fire.

And you absolutely have been painting Trump support as an immoral act of bigotry. You can argue you have not explicitly done so but it is very evident in your posts of the last few weeks.

Oh you poor guy. It's so tough being a middle class, hetero, white male. The constant pressure those damn Mexicans and gays put on you must be so difficult for you. How do you get through the day with all of that hate coming at you?

The irony of people telling a Trump basher that he's attacking people without being explicit. Kinda like how Trump didn't say that Megan Kelly was on the rag, right?

 

[wizards8507]

Oh you poor guy. It's so tough being a middle class, hetero, white male. The constant pressure those damn Mexicans and gays put on you must be so difficult for you. How do you get through the day with all of that hate coming at you?

Really, that's your standard? Being falsely accused of bigotry is okay simply because it's not as bad as being a "victim" of bigotry? Using that logic, let's wrongfully imprison a bunch of people for murders they didn't commit. Those bastards should be grateful because at least it's not as bad as actually being murdered.

Actually, that's probably a pretty good example. College campuses all over the country have decided it's perfectly acceptable to punish men for rapes they didn't commit and anyone who dares suggest otherwise is accused of perpetuating a "rape culture" and wanting actual rapists to walk free.

The irony of people telling a Trump basher that he's attacking people without being explicit. Kinda like how Trump didn't say that Megan Kelly was on the rag, right?

I hate Trump with the passion of 1,000 fiery suns, but the "blood coming out of her wherever" honest-to-goodness didn't strike me as a menses reference. "I'm going to punch you in the nose, punch you in the eye, punch you in the wherever." It's just a flippant way of ending a train of thought.

 

[RDU Irish]

Boo f-ing hoo yourself. The whole point is I don't rub my lifestyle, gender or color in other people's faces all the time looking for some kind of f-ing Dr. Phil circle jerk. I STFU and get to work minding my own damn business and solving my own problems b/c nobody is going to do it for me.

Keep bashing on the hetero white male population though - what is the worst that could happen.

 

[gkIrish]

Just wait until hetero white males are the minority and will have all the power

 

[RDU Irish]

And Hispanic parents not letting their kids date white people is cute and cultural. White dude tries that... good luck. Y'all berate Archie Bunker white folk but make excuses for every other race that harbors much wider spread bigotry and raw hate of other races.

and then you can't understand where Trump gets his support. But I'm the one that will be labeled ignorant, bigoted and unenlightened.

 

[gkIrish]

My Greek immigrant parents don't like it when I date non-Greeks. The girl can be Italian or even an Orthodox Serbian chick and they would get upset. It's not always about skin color...sometimes older parents just want their grandkids to have two parents with similar backgrounds to preserve their culture.

 

[RDU Irish]

My Greek immigrant parents don't like it when I date non-Greeks. The girl can be Italian or even an Orthodox Serbian chick and they would get upset. It's not always about skin color...sometimes older parents just want their grandkids to have two parents with similar backgrounds to preserve their culture.

That is a cute, cultural story. If they were white they would be bigots though, and guaranteed Trump supporters.

 

[GowerND11]

That is a cute, cultural story. If they were white they would be bigots though, and guaranteed Trump supporters.

... Last I checked Greeks are white. If we want to reduce people to the color of their skin.

 

[gkIrish]

That is a cute, cultural story. If they were white they would be bigots though, and guaranteed Trump supporters.

Well they are white....

The point you are making is that in my parent's situation if I dated a black girl and they flipped out that would be perceived by outsiders as bigoted but if I dated an Italian girl and they flipped out in the same way that would be okay. So I agree with you for the most part.

 

[zelezo vlk]

... Last I checked Greeks are white. If we want to reduce people to the color of their skin.

Do you really want your daughter coming home with this?

 

[NDinL.A.]

Consider for a moment the constant berating white people take for being white and not empathizing enough with the plight of any given minority. Now hetero vs gay/trans you get the same thing. And God forbid you are raised in any affluence, you must atone for your sins! These are not conservative creations and Obummer has only thrown gas on the fire.

And you absolutely have been painting Trump support as an immoral act of bigotry. You can argue you have not explicitly done so but it is very evident in your posts of the last few weeks.

#thestruggleisreal people!

If you support a bigot and a sexist, you are enabling his bigotry and sexism (among many, many other things). Doesn't make you a bigot and sexist, just means you are enabling it. Unfortunately, I've run into Trump supporters who are absolutely racist. You guys love to say that means I am claiming that ALL Trump supporters are racist LOL, but again, I've never said that. Not even close. But keep reaching.

 

[Irish YJ]

The Week's Michael Brendan Dougherty just published an article titled "Why I'll Miss Obama":

Dougherty is a card carrying member of the Bernie club.... he should have stuck to writing about baseball....
He has also authored articles about the "cowardice and hubris" of Pope Francis and other bowel movements I won't mention. I'm not a guy who believes in the infallibility of the pope , but still....

 

[NDinL.A.]

And Hispanic parents not letting their kids date white people is cute and cultural. White dude tries that... good luck. Y'all berate Archie Bunker white folk but make excuses for every other race that harbors much wider spread bigotry and raw hate of other races.

and then you can't understand where Trump gets his support. But I'm the one that will be labeled ignorant, bigoted and unenlightened.

That is a cute, cultural story. If they were white they would be bigots though, and guaranteed Trump supporters.

Holy shit dude, get a grip. Nobody is making excuses for racism, on ANY side here. You're just making shit up at this point. The Mexican parents who don't let their kids date white guys are bigots, as are the white parents who do the same thing. Is it really that difficult to understand?

Do you need a tissue? Sounds like you've had a really tough time as an affluent white male and you're going through some stuff.

And fwiw, I grew up Brown and poor as hell and I feel I've lived a great life. No excuses from me. Head down, get your shit done, have fun after the work is done. Would have been nice to grow up with money, but no big deal. Life is good, even with so many Trump supporters calling me wetback and illegal lol. Not sure why you're so angry and playing the victim card, but more power to you. Playing the victim has worked for your boy Trump, so I get it.

 

[Whiskeyjack]

Dougherty is a card carrying member of the Bernie club.... he should have stuck to writing about baseball....
He has also authored articles about the "cowardice and hubris" of Pope Francis and other bowel movements I won't mention. I'm not a guy who believes in the infallibility of the pope , but still....

He's not a Bernie supporter. Traditionalist Catholic, identifies as conservative. Has focused recently on excoriating the GOP for sneering at Trump supporters instead of actually responding to their needs. Would have thought you'd appreciate that.

 

[EddytoNow]

Moral to the story - good guys may not finish first but they sure as hell rarely finish last. Top quartile family earnings and summers off doesn't fit the teacher union play bill.

I just retired after 42 years of teaching. Never reached the top quartile of family earnings. In 1974, I took a $4,000 per year pay cut to accept my first teaching job. I left a factory job hand-sealing cartons of glassware with a paint brush and a bucket of glue to become a teacher. I'm not sure where you're getting your information about teacher salaries, but the vast majority of teachers will never make the kind of money you suggest they do.

Incidentally, my take-home pay for my final year of teaching was approximately $43,000 per year. My take-home pay for my retirement will be approximately $45,000 per year (a combination of a teaching pension and social security benefits). Forty-two years of paying into the teacher pension plan and 47 years of paying into the social security system, and I'm still not in the top quartile. Newly hired teachers (at least in Michigan) have no future at all. The Republican state legislature gutted funding for education and other public service jobs. The result, so far, is lead-contaminated water in Flint and the Detroit Public Schools unable to pay their teachers for work already completed. In both instances, emergency managers appointed by Republican governor, John Snyder, were at the controls. The Republican legislature and the Republican governor have removed the right of local citizens to elect and hold accountable their own leaders. They have no one to blame but themselves.

 

[Legacy]

Just wait until hetero white males are the minority and will have all the power

London Poised to Elect Muslim Mayor After 'Nasty' Campaign

London appears poised to become the first major Western city to elect a Muslim mayor after a bitter and bizarre campaign that has earned comparisons to the chaotic U.S. presidential race.

Opinion polls suggest that Sadiq Khan is the frontrunner in Thursday's election to replace New York-born Boris Johnson and take charge of transportation and strategic planning in one of the world's most diverse cities.

The moderate Muslim, who supports LGBT rights including gay marriage, is up to 20 percentage points ahead of main rival Zac Goldsmith, the son of a Jewish billionaire.

The contrast with Khan, who is the son of a bus driver from Pakistan and grew up with seven siblings in a three-bedroom government-subsidized apartment, resonates in an expensive city where rocketing rents and property values are squeezing out even middle-class workers.

This mayoral election, featuring what a Financial Times newspaper op-ed called a "dismal brace of candidates," has earned comparisons with the 2016 White House race and the outlandish influence of Donald Trump.

"The campaign has degenerated in a profoundly depressing way," London reporter and blogger for The Guardian, Dave Hill, told NBC News.

Khan, from the opposition Labour Party, is among the majority of London's 8.2 million inhabitants not classified as "white British." According to the 2011 census, one in eight Londoners is a Muslim and 35 percent of the British capital's residents were born overseas

.

 

[Irish YJ]

#thestruggleisreal people!

If you support a bigot and a sexist, you are enabling his bigotry and sexism (among many, many other things). Doesn't make you a bigot and sexist, just means you are enabling it. Unfortunately, I've run into Trump supporters who are absolutely racist. You guys love to say that means I am claiming that ALL Trump supporters are racist LOL, but again, I've never said that. Not even close. But keep reaching.

LA you're painting with a broad brush. By your logic, if you (not you, just an example) support a known liar (like Hilldog), you are enabling lying, are you not. If you support an adulterer, are you not enabling.... Anyway, you get my point. And I know Obama supports that are absolutely racist.

I don't like Trump, but I will vote for him (for reasons I've stated prior). I certainly am not a racist. If you knew my personal, career, and charitable history you would have no doubt. I'm also for closing the border and enforcing immigration law. Doesn't mean I don't like or respect any race or religion. I'm just a simpleton that believes politicians and to an extent, "intellectuals", have clouded and complicated just about every issue to the extent they believe the greyer the answer is, the better.

 

[Irish YJ]

London Poised to Elect Muslim Mayor After 'Nasty' Campaign



.

Next stop, Sharia law and the Adhan blasted from Big Ben.
I hope this dude is a moderate. If not, could get ugly fast.

 

[Irish YJ]

He's not a Bernie supporter. Traditionalist Catholic, identifies as conservative. Has focused recently on excoriating the GOP for sneering at Trump supporters instead of actually responding to their needs. Would have thought you'd appreciate that.

He may self identify as a conservative (trans-politics?), but I've read some very pro-Bernie articles from him, and I haven't read a pro-Trump one yet. Will search for his latest.
I'm actually happy the GOP is sneering, and continue to fight it. Burn it down Whiskey.

 

[Irish YJ]

Whiskey, I just listened to a few of his audio sermons. Good lord the air of superiority is hilarious. Almost as funny as his choice of "serious" background music.

The content itself sounds a exactly like one of our more liberal posters lol.

 

[Whiskeyjack]

Whiskey, I just listened to a few of his audio sermons. Good lord the air of superiority is hilarious. Almost as funny as his choice of "serious" background music.

The content itself sounds a exactly like one of our more liberal posters lol.

I've never listened to him in an audio format, but I've been reading him for years, and he's anything but liberal. You can read his stuff here. I don't see anything even remotely left-leaning.