2016 Presidential Horse Race

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[GoIrish41]

HillDog wrapped it up tonight.

Tonight was the cherry on top, I think. IMO, she wrapped it up during the first Super Tuesday. Bernie is just trying to influence the platform at this point. Realistically, that was all he was probably ever going to accomplish from the start. If Hillary wants to reel in the Bernie supporters, she is going to have to take some fairly significant steps toward Bernie's positions. IMO, her success or failure in the general is going to hinge on how successful she is at wooing his backers.

I think she made this much more difficult than it needed to be by trying to portray Bernie as an unrealistic idealist whose proposals were too bold to possibly be adopted. While there may be some truth to that position, the average Bernie backer doesn't want to hear that shit. Now, she is going to have to pivot toward them and, with Bernie out of the way, make it appear that universal healthcare, affordable education, abolition of Citizens United, and taking on Wall Street is what she is all about. Without such a pivot, she'll be hard pressed to draw a big majority of Bernie's support.

Of course, she'll have Trump's alienation of huge chunks of the electorate to help her toward victory, but it will be a lot easier with Bernie's support at her back.

 

[IrishJayhawk]

Tonight was the cherry on top, I think. IMO, she wrapped it up during the first Super Tuesday. Bernie is just trying to influence the platform at this point. Realistically, that was all he was probably ever going to accomplish from the start. If Hillary wants to reel in the Bernie supporters, she is going to have to take some fairly significant steps toward Bernie's positions. IMO, her success or failure in the general is going to hinge on how successful she is at wooing his backers.

I think she made this much more difficult than it needed to be by trying to portray Bernie as an unrealistic idealist whose proposals were too bold to possibly be adopted. While there may be some truth to that position, the average Bernie backer doesn't want to hear that shit. Now, she is going to have to pivot toward them and, with Bernie out of the way, make it appear that universal healthcare, affordable education, abolition of Citizens United, and taking on Wall Street is what she is all about. Without such a pivot, she'll be hard pressed to draw a big majority of Bernie's support.

Of course, she'll have Trump's alienation of huge chunks of the electorate to help her toward victory, but it will be a lot easier with Bernie's support at her back.

Some of it depends on Bernie. She took one for the team and heartily backed Obama. If Bernie does the same thing, most will come over. Actually, the polls say that Clinton has a higher percentage or Bernie voters who would support her than 2008 Clinton supporters who would support Obama. They nearly all came over in the end.

 

[GoIrish41]

Some of it depends on Bernie. She took one for the team and heartily backed Obama. If Bernie does the same thing, most will come over. Actually, the polls say that Clinton has a higher percentage or Bernie voters who would support her than 2008 Clinton supporters who would support Obama. They nearly all came over in the end.

Certainly, Bernie will have a big role to play. He has to put his shoulder into the Hillary campaign and work to convince his support that she wants the same things that he wants. I think the this is a bit different than Hillary/Obama in that is that a lot of Bernie's support comes from very young voters. They want what they want, and they liked Bernie and his message. If Hillary's message does not become a little more like his, I feel like a lot of them are going to drop out this cycle. I still like Hillary's odds of winning, but it could be a landslide if the Bernie support comes to Hillary in a significant way. And if she's serious about bringing them into the fold, and really willing to push for some of the items on his agenda, they could get the "revolution" they were looking for, even if they don't have the standard bearer they expected. I think Hillary has some work to do to make that happen.

 

[IrishJayhawk]

Certainly, Bernie will have a big role to play. He has to put his shoulder into the Hillary campaign and work to convince his support that she wants the same things that he wants. I think the this is a bit different than Hillary/Obama in that is that a lot of Bernie's support comes from very young voters. They want what they want, and they liked Bernie and his message. If Hillary's message does not become a little more like his, I feel like a lot of them are going to drop out this cycle. I still like Hillary's odds of winning, but it could be a landslide if the Bernie support comes to Hillary in a significant way. And if she's serious about bringing them into the fold, and really willing to push for some of the items on his agenda, they could get the "revolution" they were looking for, even if they don't have the standard bearer they expected. I think Hillary has some work to do to make that happen.

The numbers I referenced earlier.
Hillary Clinton says history shows she can win over Bernie Sanders supporters | PolitiFact

 

[NDinL.A.]

Some of it depends on Bernie. She took one for the team and heartily backed Obama. If Bernie does the same thing, most will come over. Actually, the polls say that Clinton has a higher percentage or Bernie voters who would support her than 2008 Clinton supporters who would support Obama. They nearly all came over in the end.

It helps that Donald Trump is running against, a man VERY easy to hate for a large majority of the public (just look at his {un}favorability ratings). Once Bernie jumps on board, which he eventually will because he hates Trump just as much as the rest of the Democrats do, I feel a large majority of his supporters will follow. I know a lot of Bernie supporters who despise Trump more than they do Hillary, so when the current anger with Hillary subsides, they'll tow the party line.

As you said, a poll showed that at this time, 50% of Hillary supporters said they would not vote for Obama. That is a crazy high number, much higher than it currently is for Bernie supporters. And yet, in 2008, almost all of them voted for Obama. With Trump and his hateful, fear-mongering rhetoric (or even Cruz with his radical views) across the way, they’ll make their way over to Hillary’s side as well IMHO. There is a reason Trump said from morning until night yesterday that Bernie should run as an independent – he knows that if Bernie’s supporters cross over to Trump, he’s toast. Trump has already lost this Republican’s vote – and there are many more like me.

EDIT: Just saw your link, If they look back to April instead of June, it was even higher than 40%. Thanks for the link though.

 

[Wild Bill]

It helps that Donald Trump is running against, a man VERY easy to hate for a large majority of the public (just look at his {un}favorability ratings). Once Bernie jumps on board, which he eventually will because he hates Trump just as much as the rest of the Democrats do, I feel a large majority of his supporters will follow. I know a lot of Bernie supporters who despise Trump more than they do Hillary, so when the current anger with Hillary subsides, they'll tow the party line.

As you said, a poll showed that at this time, 50% of Hillary supporters said they would not vote for Obama. That is a crazy high number, much higher than it currently is for Bernie supporters. And yet, in 2008, almost all of them voted for Obama. With Trump and his hateful, fear-mongering rhetoric (or even Cruz with his radical views) across the way, they’ll make their way over to Hillary’s side as well IMHO. There is a reason Trump said from morning until night yesterday that Bernie should run as an independent – he knows that if Bernie’s supporters cross over to Trump, he’s toast. Trump has already lost this Republican’s vote – and there are many more like me.

EDIT: Just saw your link, If they look back to April instead of June, it was even higher than 40%. Thanks for the link though.

I agree many Bernie supporters will change their stance on HRC, but I'm not convinced they'll actually show up to vote. Bernie's strongest support is with younger voters and they just aren't as reliable as the older voters who supported HRC in 2008.

 

[GoIrish41]

I agree many Bernie supporters will change their stance on HRC, but I'm not convinced they'll actually show up to vote. Bernie's strongest support is with younger voters and they just aren't as reliable as the older voters who supported HRC in 2008.

This is where I am. She has got to earn their votes. They are not just going to show up for Hillary without a compelling reason. Hating Trump is not enough if they dislike her too. She's got to earn their loyalty like Bernie did.

 

[wizards8507]

This is where I am. She has got to earn their votes. They are not just going to show up for Hillary without a compelling reason. Hating Trump is not enough if they dislike her too.

I think equally compelling is whether hating Hillary is enough to get the #NeverTrump Republicans out to vote.

 

[irishfan]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Hahaha that girls face when he says "basketball ring" <a href="https://t.co/HWVhYc2ybm">https://t.co/HWVhYc2ybm</a></p>— Not James Vogel (@Not_James_Vogel) <a href="https://twitter.com/Not_James_Vogel/status/725325132533760000">April 27, 2016</a></blockquote>
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while Trump has Bobby Knight campaigning for him.....

 

[GoIrish41]

I think equally compelling is whether hating Hillary is enough to get the #NeverTrump Republicans out to vote.

She'll have Trump's help with that.

 

[wizards8507]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Hahaha that girls face when he says "basketball ring" <a href="https://t.co/HWVhYc2ybm">https://t.co/HWVhYc2ybm</a></p>— Not James Vogel (@Not_James_Vogel) <a href="https://twitter.com/Not_James_Vogel/status/725325132533760000">April 27, 2016</a></blockquote>
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while Trump has Bobby Knight campaigning for him.....

If this changes even a single vote in the state of Indiana, then Indiana can go to hell.

 

[IrishJayhawk]

If this changes even a single vote in the state of Indiana, then Indiana can go to hell.

Of course it shouldn't. But it's funny. Obama knows how many states there are, but people used that quote as evidence that he's not a true American.

 

[wizards8507]

Of course it shouldn't. But it's funny. Obama knows how many states there are, but people used that quote as evidence that he's not a true American.

I've never heard that used as a way to suggest he's not a "true American." When it's brought up, it's usually in the context of how the media is more likely to give a Democrat a free pass on a gaffe like that than a Republican.

FWIW, I thought Obama pronouncing "corpsman" as "corpse-man" was much worse than his brain fart about 57 states.

 

[irishfan]

If this changes even a single vote in the state of Indiana, then Indiana can go to hell.

I honestly think stuff like this does impact some people. I'm sure not those people who are gung-ho politically, but there are people who use the "who would I rather have a beer with" decision when voting for some reason. I mean if I were one of those people who votes just because they feel like it's their duty and I were 50/50....I'd be swayed if Brian Kelly were campaigning for one candidate and the other one couldn't even form a sentence about football. I'm not one of them, but there are people who simply go for the more relatable, down-to-earth candidate.

It's so stupid, but I'm pretty positive Trump doing so well in New England was aided by his relationship with Brady, Kraft, Belichick.

 

[wizards8507]

I honestly think stuff like this does impact some people. I'm sure not people who are gung-ho politically, but there are people who use the "who would I rather have a beer with" decision when voting for some reason. I mean if I were one of those people who votes just because they feel like it's their duty and I were 50/50....I'd be swayed if Brian Kelly were campaigning for one candidate and the other one couldn't even form a sentence about football. I'm not one of them, but there are people who simply go for the more relatable, down-to-earth candidate.

I think I buy that argument in a general election, but I think anyone casual enough to be swayed by a gaffe like this is much more likely to simply sit out of the primary vote altogether.

It's so stupid, but I'm pretty positive Trump doing so well in New England was aided by his relationship with Brady, Kraft, Belichick.

I don't think so. Being in New England, there's been virtually zero time, money, or media spent on the primaries here. If I didn't call the board of elections to find out where I was supposed to vote, I never would have known. People might have heard something in passing about Tom Brady having a "Make America Great Again" hat, but any relationship Trump has with the team hasn't permeated the collective consciousness. If anything, I think the default in New England would be to dislike Trump as a New Yorker. New Englanders disliking New York goes way deeper than sports.

The reason Trump did so well in New England is because New England Republicans aren't particularly conservative.

 

[irishfan]

I think I buy that argument in a general election, but I think anyone casual enough to be swayed by a gaffe like this is much more likely to simply sit out of the primary vote altogether.


I don't think so. Being in New England, there's been virtually zero time, money, or media spent on the primaries here. If I didn't call the board of elections to find out where I was supposed to vote, I never would have known. People might have heard something in passing about Tom Brady having a "Make America Great Again" hat, but any relationship Trump has with the team hasn't permeated the collective consciousness. If anything, I think the default in New England would be to dislike Trump as a New Yorker. New Englanders disliking New York goes way deeper than sports.

The reason Trump did so well in New England is because New England Republicans aren't particularly conservative.

I agree with that as well. It's a very friendly territory for him. I don't particularly like him or Cruz, but I find Trump way more relatable being from the Northeast. Just seen some stuff on social media that's half-serious and half-joking about how people are pro-Trump and then a pic of Trump/Brady or Trump/Belichick or Trump at a Pats game. Or even 2 days ago when he was in Rhode Island and was saying how people need to leave Brady alone. I do think for people who are Republican and don't like any candidate it does make them go "eh fuck it" when they see him being so over-the-top about your sports team.

I know it's not at all en vogue to be a Trump supporter in public, so I do think some people are using it to display something pro-Trump under the guise of it being Patriots related.

 

[GoIrish41]

Clinton Won Big Tuesday Night. But Sanders Has Won Something Too.

 

[Whiskeyjack]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Trump is Christie's Tyler Durden. <a href="https://t.co/Q2kNxKX08v">https://t.co/Q2kNxKX08v</a></p>— Peter Suderman (@petersuderman) <a href="https://twitter.com/petersuderman/status/725146132003713024">April 27, 2016</a></blockquote>
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[BleedBlueGold]

Clinton Won Big Tuesday Night. But Sanders Has Won Something Too.

I linked this article earlier. Good read.

 

[GoIrish41]

I linked this article earlier. Good read.

Sorry, missed it. Yeah, Bernie has definitely increased his influence no matter if he wins the nomination.

 

[wizards8507]

Ted Cruz supposedly has a "big announcement" today at 4:00. I'm guessing Carly as VP.

 

[GoIrish41]

Ted Cruz supposedly has a "big announcement" today at 4:00. I'm guessing Carly as VP.

He is going to admit he actually is the Zodiac Killer.

 

[wizards8507]

BREAKING

Cruz to Tap Fiorina as Running Mate

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Ted Cruz to announce Carly Fiorina as his pick for vice president: <a href="https://t.co/6yUd6JJVaC">https://t.co/6yUd6JJVaC</a> <a href="https://t.co/mqzW4cW4eZ">pic.twitter.com/mqzW4cW4eZ</a></p>— The Daily Beast (@thedailybeast) <a href="https://twitter.com/thedailybeast/status/725381694161821696">April 27, 2016</a></blockquote>
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[woolybug25]

BREAKING

Cruz to Tap Fiorina as Running Mate

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Ted Cruz to announce Carly Fiorina as his pick for vice president: <a href="https://t.co/6yUd6JJVaC">https://t.co/6yUd6JJVaC</a> <a href="https://t.co/mqzW4cW4eZ">pic.twitter.com/mqzW4cW4eZ</a></p>— The Daily Beast (@thedailybeast) <a href="https://twitter.com/thedailybeast/status/725381694161821696">April 27, 2016</a></blockquote>
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Great... Now he is on the same level of palatabilty as Trump and Hilldog for me.

We're doomed.

 

[Irishman77]

What an amazing speech today by Donald Trump. So eloquent, true, and inspiring.

 

[wizards8507]

Great... Now he is on the same level of palatabilty as Trump and Hilldog for me.

We're doomed.

Yeah, I don't get it. I don't get it from an ideological perspective or from a strategic perspective. I have to imagine Rubio was his first choice, but I'm guessing he said no.