2016 Presidential Horse Race

[wizards8507]

IE isn't a representative slice of America. A large % of our posters graduated from an elite university, and have accordingly reaped the benefits of that privilege.

You say "privilege," I say "fruits of our labor."

That's easy to say with the advantages you had growing up, wizards.

I grew up lower-middle-class. Certainly not the poorest of the poor, but far from privileged. My dad is a veteran factory worker who barely graduated high school. He lost work from injuries and layoffs multiple times when I was growing up. My mom was a college dropout who worked as an administrative assistant until getting a night school degree. It's sad that "blue collar parents who stayed married" is considered an "advantage."

 

[Whiskeyjack]

I grew up lower-middle-class. Certainly not the poorest of the poor, but far from privileged. My dad is a veteran factory worker who barely graduated high school. He lost work from injuries and layoffs multiple times when I was growing up. My mom was a college dropout who worked as an administrative assistant until getting a night school degree. It's sad that "blue collar parents who stayed married" is considered an "advantage."

You know I wasn't talking about economic privilege. And I expect you'd admit that you can claim no credit for your parents staying married, or making tremendous sacrifices on your behalf.

It is sad that that's an advantage these days, but it's an advantage nonetheless; and it's not one that many Trump supporters have enjoyed.

 

[BleedBlueGold]

But I asked the question honestly... who on here (as in people in this thread) looks around at their life right now and thinks "This is shit! And it's all the Government's fault!"

Warren Buffet wrote something the other day on this very topic basically saying that the doom and gloom is nothing but BS. It's a mirage put forth by people who have a vested interest in people being dissatisfied/mad and believing that only they can fix the problem. And he made a lot of sense.

Totally dependent on the issues and how each individual weighs them. I've mentioned before that I don't put a lot of weight on policy and how it affects my wallet. If that were the case, I'd agree with you. I have it pretty good. But that's not how I view the government or our society. So yea, depending on the issue, there are plenty of times I could say "This is shit! And it's all the government's fault!"

 

[Irish#1]

IMO, Hillary will sweep if it's against Trump with no 3rd party candidate. The turnout will be tremendous, and it will be anti-Trump.

I have a feeling it may be just the opposite.

 

[BleedBlueGold]

Thoughts on Super Tuesday: HRC won the states she was expected to win. Bernie did great in the 4 states he won. I have a huge problem with the Clinton's and their shenanigans in Massachusetts. So typical. And who knows, it could've made a difference given how close that state was. Regardless, HRC crushed Obama in 08 there, but still ended up losing. Moving forward, Bernie will catch up over the next two weeks. The media will continue to doubt him and wonder why he hasn't dropped out yet. News flash: Bernie isn't going to drop out, even if he has no shot. He's already said as much. Also, media continuing to show total delegates including super delegates so HRC looks like she's dominating. What a joke.

Super Tuesday was pretty much a win for Sanders. MN and CO are pretty indicative of the coming states. MI followed by FL, OH, IL, NC and MO will be huge.

Feel the Bern!

 

[BleedBlueGold]

I have a feeling it may be just the opposite.

I agree. Turnout has been low so far. A Trump/HRC election will probably piss enough people off that even more stay home. And for the record, LAX, electibility polls show HRC barely beating Trump. It's essentially a toss-up considering margin of error. She also loses to Cruz and Rubio. Far from a slam dunk.

 

[IrishLax]

I have a feeling it may be just the opposite.

I agree. Turnout has been low so far. A Trump/HRC election will probably piss enough people off that even more stay home. And for the record, LAX, electibility polls show HRC barely beating Trump. It's essentially a toss-up considering margin of error. She also loses to Cruz and Rubio. Far from a slam dunk.

Disagree. People are just now scratching the surface of the abomination that is Trump, which is why turnout was so high on Super Tuesday. As we get closer to closer to the election people will seriously start freaking the hell out if he's the nominee... and I think the turnout will be massive on election day. People will vote for Clinton out of fear.

Again, I'm interested to see if Bernie or Bloomberg or someone else runs as a 3rd aprty candidate because then stuff will get really wild. In a Sanders vs Clinton vs Trump race who wins? Sanders?

 

[Rack Em]

Disagree. People are just now scratching the surface of the abomination that is Trump, which is why turnout was so high on Super Tuesday. As we get closer to closer to the election people will seriously start freaking the hell out if he's the nominee... and I think the turnout will be massive on election day. People will vote for Clinton out of fear.

Again, I'm interested to see if Bernie or Bloomberg or someone else runs as a 3rd aprty candidate because then stuff will get really wild. In a Sanders vs Clinton vs Trump race who wins? Sanders?

Late Night Talk Shows

 

[EddytoNow]

E-Mails. E-Mails. E-Mails.

I guess the reason I don't get upset over Hillary's e-mails is because she is being held to a standard that the other candidates are not. When Trump, Cruz, Rubio, Kasich, Carson, and Sanders are asked to release all of their e-mails, I'll expect Hillary to do the same. Until that happens I won't begrudge Hillary's decision to keep some of her e-mails private.

In our lives, we have all said or written something that, in hindsight, we wished we hadn't. Hillary, out of necessity, has been far-more open about her e-mails than any of her Democratic or Republican opponents. Let's demand the complete release of all e-mails from all presidential candidates or drop the charade that only Hillary has something hidden away in her e-mail files. What's good for the goose is good for the gander.

I know someone will respond with the argument that we have a right to see Hillary's e-mails because she was Obama's Secretary of State. If that is the argument then we also have the right to see a complete record of everything that any presidential candidate has said or done. Do we really want to go there? We already have a pretty pathetic group of presidential candidates from both parties. If revealing everything about one's private life is a pre-requisite to running for president, then we will have few interested in the position.

If it weren't for his conservative policy positions, I would be voting for Ben Carson. He seems the most honest and sincere candidate out there. As it is, I will be voting for Bernie Sanders in the Michigan primary.

 

[gkIrish]

Disagree. People are just now scratching the surface of the abomination that is Trump, which is why turnout was so high on Super Tuesday. As we get closer to closer to the election people will seriously start freaking the hell out if he's the nominee... and I think the turnout will be massive on election day. People will vote for Clinton out of fear.

Again, I'm interested to see if Bernie or Bloomberg or someone else runs as a 3rd aprty candidate because then stuff will get really wild. In a Sanders vs Clinton vs Trump race who wins? Sanders?

I think Trump would win be a large margin. There are a huge amount of people in this country that vote strictly based on the candidate's party in the general. My father is one of those people. Bernie would steal more votes from Hillary than Donald.

 

[BleedBlueGold]

Disagree. People are just now scratching the surface of the abomination that is Trump, which is why turnout was so high on Super Tuesday. As we get closer to closer to the election people will seriously start freaking the hell out if he's the nominee... and I think the turnout will be massive on election day. People will vote for Clinton out of fear.

Again, I'm interested to see if Bernie or Bloomberg or someone else runs as a 3rd aprty candidate because then stuff will get really wild. In a Sanders vs Clinton vs Trump race who wins? Sanders?

What is that based on? Your gut? Because these electibility polls have been saying the same thing for awhile: HRC and Trump is a toss-up. Democratic turnout has been down so far. While Repub turnout is way up. People HATE Hillary and even though people hate Trump, the turnout may not be enough to defeat him if HRC is the opposition.

I'm not sure if Bernie would run as a 3rd party, because he knows he'd steal votes away from HRC and in the end, the goal is to maintain Democratic control of the White House.

 

[DillonHall]

What is that based on? Your gut? Because these electibility polls have been saying the same thing for awhile: HRC and Trump is a toss-up. Democratic turnout has been down so far. While Repub turnout is way up. People HATE Hillary and even though people hate Trump, the turnout may not be enough to defeat him if HRC is the opposition.

I'm not sure if Bernie would run as a 3rd party, because he knows he'd steal votes away from HRC and in the end, the goal is to maintain Democratic control of the White House.

I think GOP turnout is large in part due to anti-Trump Republicans

 

[Cackalacky]

Disagree. People are just now scratching the surface of the abomination that is Trump, which is why turnout was so high on Super Tuesday. As we get closer to closer to the election people will seriously start freaking the hell out if he's the nominee... and I think the turnout will be massive on election day. People will vote for Clinton out of fear.

Again, I'm interested to see if Bernie or Bloomberg or someone else runs as a 3rd aprty candidate because then stuff will get really wild. In a Sanders vs Clinton vs Trump race who wins? Sanders?

Real Clear Politics has head to head polling for each scenario. TIFIW but Sanders beats Trump by 10+ points. Clinton beats Trump but not by much. HRC loses to all other candidates. Sanders beats everyone H2H.

 

[BleedBlueGold]

I think GOP turnout is large in part due to anti-Trump Republicans

Trump just crushed Super Tuesday. The high GOP turnout, imo, are the anti-establishment Republicans. Not anti-Trump.

 

[GoIrish41]

I agree. Turnout has been low so far. A Trump/HRC election will probably piss enough people off that even more stay home. And for the record, LAX, electibility polls show HRC barely beating Trump. It's essentially a toss-up considering margin of error. She also loses to Cruz and Rubio. Far from a slam dunk.

Dems rarely vote in off-year elections. I suspect that trend carries into primaries. When the general comes around, they will show up if the candidate plays her/his cards right.

 

[Cackalacky]

I think Trump would win be a large margin. There are a huge amount of people in this country that vote strictly based on the candidate's party in the general. My father is one of those people. Bernie would steal more votes from Hillary than Donald.

This opinion is not reflected in current head to head polls that I have seen. IDK what it would be nationally in a general election but Sanders' favoribility compared to both Trump and HRC is massively in his favor. As I said above he beats Trump by 10+ points right now in H2H polling.

Anecdotally, I know several lifelong Purple Republicans who posted votes for Sanders in their respective primaries. They did not feel great about it but they did it.

 

[IrishLax]

What is that based on? Your gut? Because these electibility polls have been saying the same thing for awhile: HRC and Trump is a toss-up. Democratic turnout has been down so far. While Repub turnout is way up. People HATE Hillary and even though people hate Trump, the turnout may not be enough to defeat him if HRC is the opposition.

I'm not sure if Bernie would run as a 3rd party, because he knows he'd steal votes away from HRC and in the end, the goal is to maintain Democratic control of the White House.

No, the pattern that has emerged throughout this entire primary process. At first, 538 (and others) with their historical data and polls and indicators said not to worry about Trump and his polling numbers.

Then, instead of things falling into line how they predicted, the electorate behaved the opposite. Because we have never seen something like this. "Electibility" polls are worthless right now, because while people strongly dislike Clinton, the bottom line is that "dislike" isn't a powerful emotion. Fear and anger, on the other hand, are quite powerful. And people will begin to fear Trump as more and more information comes to light (what we are already seeing) and then people will get angry about him possibly being the President (what we're also likely seeing). This is what we are currently seeing, this isn't projection. It's causing epic levels of turnout for the Republican primaries and low turnout for the Democrats. "Dislike" of Hillary isn't driving people to the polls, and likewise anger/fear both for and against Trump is absolutely driving people to the polls. The idea that people are all of a sudden flip a switch and stay home if it's Trump vs Clinton ignores the Trump half of the equation.

And I'm not sure why Bernie's goal would be "Democratic control of the White House" when he's been an independent pretty much his entire life and only caucused with the Democrats by default of them being the liberal-leaning party.

 

[gkIrish]

Real Clear Politics has head to head polling for each scenario. TIFIW but Sanders beats Trump by 10+ points. Clinton beats Trump but not by much. HRC loses to all other candidates. Sanders beats everyone H2H.

This opinion is not reflected in current head to head polls that I have seen. IDK what it would be nationally in a general election but Sanders' favoribility compared to both Trump and HRC is massively in his favor. As I said above he beats Trump by 10+ points right now in H2H polling.

Anecdotally, I know several lifelong Purple Republicans who posted votes for Sanders in their respective primaries. They did not feel great about it but the did.

I believe he was asking who would win in a three person race, not head to head.

 

[IrishLax]

Real Clear Politics has head to head polling for each scenario. TIFIW but Sanders beats Trump by 10+ points. Clinton beats Trump but not by much. HRC loses to all other candidates. Sanders beats everyone H2H.

They have a poll for all 3 running for President? As in a 3-headed race?

 

[Cackalacky]

They have a poll for all 3 running for President? As in a 3-headed race?

Ahhhh... no. My bad.

 

[kmoose]

E-Mails. E-Mails. E-Mails.

I guess the reason I don't get upset over Hillary's e-mails is because she is being held to a standard that the other candidates are not. When Trump, Cruz, Rubio, Kasich, Carson, and Sanders are asked to release all of their e-mails, I'll expect Hillary to do the same. Until that happens I won't begrudge Hillary's decision to keep some of her e-mails private.

The problem is not that Hillary is trying to keep some of her emails private. The problem is that, in her role as the US Secretary of State, her emails pertaining to her official duties are part of the public record. That's why they are required to use their .gov/.state/.official email address, or make sure that any emails about official business sent to/through a private email address are forwarded to the official address. That ensures that those emails become a part of the Public Record. As such, she is NOT entitled to keep those emails private. THAT is the issue.

 

[ND NYC]

anyone know what the average voter turnout (of registered voters) in the last couple decades of presidential elections?

feeling here is that it will (sadly) be very low.

 

[kmoose]

I think there would need to be a yearbook-like spread with pictures of players on both sides of the aisle. Hillary plays the game just like most other politicians in Washington. That's what is screwed up most about our politics. Public financing of elections!

Democrats have a guy in their very own party who is the antithesis of special interests...... Sanders. And Clinton is crushing him! It really should embarrass Democrats who mistakenly believe that their party is for the little guy, and not bought and paid for like the other guys are.

 

[wizards8507]

E-Mails. E-Mails. E-Mails.

I guess the reason I don't get upset over Hillary's e-mails is because she is being held to a standard that the other candidates are not. When Trump, Cruz, Rubio, Kasich, Carson, and Sanders are asked to release all of their e-mails, I'll expect Hillary to do the same. Until that happens I won't begrudge Hillary's decision to keep some of her e-mails private.

In our lives, we have all said or written something that, in hindsight, we wished we hadn't. Hillary, out of necessity, has been far-more open about her e-mails than any of her Democratic or Republican opponents. Let's demand the complete release of all e-mails from all presidential candidates or drop the charade that only Hillary has something hidden away in her e-mail files. What's good for the goose is good for the gander.

What are you talking about? Clinton's e-mails contained classified military intelligence on an unsecured server. It has nothing to do with privacy, it has to do with national security. If she had kept her work e-mail where it belonged, nobody would be asking her to release the contents of her private e-mails. If it turns out that Ted Cruz has been communicating Senate Armed Services Committee business on his personal e-mail, he'd be pressured to release that information as well. There's no double-standard because HRC is the only one who broke the law.

Analogy: If someone steals a bunch of televisions, the police get a warrant to search his car and his home. The police don't search the car and home of the entire neighborhood in the name of "equal standards."

 

[wizards8507]

anyone know what the average voter turnout (of registered voters) in the last couple decades of presidential elections?

feeling here is that it will (sadly) be very low.

55, 49, 50, 56, 57, 55 since 1992.

 

[connor_in]

anyone know what the average voter turnout (of registered voters) in the last couple decades of presidential elections?

feeling here is that it will (sadly) be very low.

BEGALA: Enthusiasm gap ‘keeps me up at night’ | The American Mirror

 

[wizards8507]

Democrats have a guy in their very own party who is the antithesis of special interests...... Sanders. And Clinton is crushing him! It really should embarrass Democrats who mistakenly believe that their party is for the little guy, and not bought and paid for like the other guys are.

The sweet irony of that Bernie being "against" special interests is that he favors government control of all sorts of private programs and services. As susceptible as big business is to corruption, the government itself is far worse.

 

[BleedBlueGold]

No, the pattern that has emerged throughout this entire primary process. At first, 538 (and others) with their historical data and polls and indicators said not to worry about Trump and his polling numbers.

Then, instead of things falling into line how they predicted, the electorate behaved the opposite. Because we have never seen something like this. "Electibility" polls are worthless right now, because while people strongly dislike Clinton, the bottom line is that "dislike" isn't a powerful emotion. Fear and anger, on the other hand, are quite powerful. And people will begin to fear Trump as more and more information comes to light (what we are already seeing) and then people will get angry about him possibly being the President (what we're also likely seeing). This is what we are currently seeing, this isn't projection. It's causing epic levels of turnout for the Republican primaries and low turnout for the Democrats. "Dislike" of Hillary isn't driving people to the polls, and likewise anger/fear both for and against Trump is absolutely driving people to the polls. The idea that people are all of a sudden flip a switch and stay home if it's Trump vs Clinton ignores the Trump half of the equation.

And I'm not sure why Bernie's goal would be "Democratic control of the White House" when he's been an independent pretty much his entire life and only caucused with the Democrats by default of them being the liberal-leaning party.

Edit: Nvm. I missread your post.

 

[wizards8507]

BEGALA: Enthusiasm gap ‘keeps me up at night’ | The American Mirror

That'll change real fast in the general. GOP enthusiasm is being driven by pro-Trump and anti-Trump factions. Once we go to the general, the Democrats are going to benefit from the anti-Trump enthusiasm.

 

[BleedBlueGold]

I think the wild card in a Trump/HRC general are the establishment-Republicans. Do they vote pro-establishment with HRC? Or do they stick with their party and vote for the anti-establishment Republican in Trump?