2016 Presidential Horse Race

[kmoose]

And to your point ... "what is comfortable?" I mean we are talking about minimum wage. You think anyone living on their own on $7.25 or $8 an hour is living comfortably? It'd be tough today on $10 an hour and splitting expenses with a roommate. There is a lot of real estate between comfortable and desperate circumstances. I say move a little further to the middle where people can realistically live.

No, you are not saying that we should move more towards the middle between desperate and comfortable; you said you wanted minimum wage to provide a comfortable living for people. And you also said that you wanted it to provide an income that didn't put people below the poverty line. Then you objected to my using the Federal Poverty Line as a benchmark. I feel bad for the kids who are born into poverty, as well. I would like to see more done for them. But I don't think it is a good idea to "reward" their irresponsible parents in order to help the children.

 

[tommyIRISH23]

I think the biggest issue with welfare spending is that it's assumed that people will make the "right" decisions with their assistance. Unfortunately, that is not the case. Sometimes people take advantage of the system out of malice, sometimes it's that they don't know better, and other times it's substance abuse. I've read through a lot of comments you guys have posted and the one thing I see that you guys are severely overrating is the ability to apply responsible logic and reason. We learn our priorities from responsible figures in our lives. A lot of these people don't have that role model and are raised by the "streets". If we are going to continue to give people money as a way out, we should make it mandatory that they learn how to be responsible.

 

[pkt77242]

Trump Supporters Appear To Be Misinformed, Not Uninformed | FiveThirtyEight

 

[kmoose]

Trump Supporters Appear To Be Misinformed, Not Uninformed | FiveThirtyEight

If you inserted Hilary Clinton for Donald Trump, in that article, it would be just as true.......

 

[phgreek]

Trump Supporters Appear To Be Misinformed, Not Uninformed | FiveThirtyEight

I had hoped Trump would be gone...but I won't sign up to the thinking in this article...

Guess this is what passes for objective "science"...in political "science".

...and I particularly LOVE the underlying message...Stupid white people who have an opinion are the enemy...way cool. But don't whine when the enemy lives up to the label.

At the end of the day Donald Trump represents someone who does not NEED anyone to achieve the office, and seems oblivious to party platforms...he talks out of his ass precisely to prove the point he is owing to no one...not party, not press, not powerbroker, nor outspoken minority...he hits for the cycle against the sources of mistrust which Washington continues to deliver. He is the only choice to have someone in office who will do what he thinks is the right thing, and act in adherence only to his own judgment (I think that is the part that is the scariest BTW). If you actually talk TO Trump supporters, they know they are overlooking a host of issues to get to something bigger than fibbing or being an asshole within political rancor...They love that he is an untouchable...and he has sold them on the fact he belongs only to the people. And that is threatening...to a lot of "groups" beyond what he says.

I get the desire to have the parts of trump folks are chasing...but they needed to draft someone like John Huntsman Sr. years ago if they really wanted that without bringing in the questionable judgement part. The closest thing electable is Kasich.

 

[NDVirginia19]

What a novel idea that fivethirtyeight article has.... Political figure has followers who are ill informed, more at 11.

Anyone pick up their obama phone yet?

 

[BGIF]

Bloomberg commissioned poll to test 2016 waters, source says - CNNPolitics.com

Washington (CNN)Former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg commissioned a poll last month to see how he would fare as a third-party candidate against Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump, the respective Democratic and Republican presidential front-runners, a source close to the former mayor told CNN Saturday night.

The source said Bloomberg, a billionaire media executive, commissioned the poll after watching the meteoric rise of political newcomer
Trump over the past six months. But the source did not discuss the poll's findings.

 

[IrishJayhawk]

What a novel idea that fivethirtyeight article has.... Political figure has followers who are ill informed, more at 11.

Anyone pick up their obama phone yet?

Speaking of ill-informed...

The Obama Phone?

Free 'ObamaPhones' for Welfare Recipients : snopes.com

'Obama phone' still a D.C. hang-up - POLITICO

 

[woolybug25]

Bloomberg commissioned poll to test 2016 waters, source says - CNNPolitics.com

He would be a welcomed addition, in my opinion. I almost wonder if he would wait until Trump/Clinton was a foregone conclusion. The country would be desperate for a third party candidate in that case and Bloomberg has the unique ability to grab true votes from both sides of the political spectrum.

 

[Grahambo]

He would be a welcomed addition, in my opinion. I almost wonder if he would wait until Trump/Clinton was a foregone conclusion. The country would be desperate for a third party candidate in that case and Bloomberg has the unique ability to grab true votes from both sides of the political spectrum.

I still think you and I should run.

 

[kmoose]

I still think you and I should run.

You two clowns are forever linked to IE. That's the equivalent of someone having pictures of you and a bunch of skanky hookers doing mountains of blow.

In other words: you're unelectable!

 

[BleedBlueGold]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">New polls show <a href="https://twitter.com/BernieSanders">@BernieSanders</a> leading <a href="https://twitter.com/HillaryClinton">@HillaryClinton</a> in both <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Iowa?src=hash">#Iowa</a> & <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/NewHampshire?src=hash">#NewHampshire</a>. <a href="https://t.co/pdu6KwvxDq">https://t.co/pdu6KwvxDq</a> <a href="https://t.co/aFEJCEGJIH">pic.twitter.com/aFEJCEGJIH</a></p>— CNN Newsroom (@CNNnewsroom) <a href="https://twitter.com/CNNnewsroom/status/686987093843800064">January 12, 2016</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

 

[connor_in]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">New polls show <a href="https://twitter.com/BernieSanders">@BernieSanders</a> leading <a href="https://twitter.com/HillaryClinton">@HillaryClinton</a> in both <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Iowa?src=hash">#Iowa</a> & <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/NewHampshire?src=hash">#NewHampshire</a>. <a href="https://t.co/pdu6KwvxDq">https://t.co/pdu6KwvxDq</a> <a href="https://t.co/aFEJCEGJIH">pic.twitter.com/aFEJCEGJIH</a></p>— CNN Newsroom (@CNNnewsroom) <a href="https://twitter.com/CNNnewsroom/status/686987093843800064">January 12, 2016</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Sanders campaign endorsed by MoveOn.org

 

[Cackalacky]

Its about time for Bernie's adopted anarchocapitalist racist Reganite love child to be exposed by un-named sources.

 

[GoIrish41]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">New polls show <a href="https://twitter.com/BernieSanders">@BernieSanders</a> leading <a href="https://twitter.com/HillaryClinton">@HillaryClinton</a> in both <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Iowa?src=hash">#Iowa</a> & <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/NewHampshire?src=hash">#NewHampshire</a>. <a href="https://t.co/pdu6KwvxDq">https://t.co/pdu6KwvxDq</a> <a href="https://t.co/aFEJCEGJIH">pic.twitter.com/aFEJCEGJIH</a></p>— CNN Newsroom (@CNNnewsroom) <a href="https://twitter.com/CNNnewsroom/status/686987093843800064">January 12, 2016</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

In Iowa, Sanders holds an 11-point advantage among those reporting an income of $50,000 or less. Among those earning $100,000 or more, meanwhile, Clinton leads Sanders by 13 points. (Sanders also holds a 5-point lead among those with an income between $50,000 and $100,000.)

Read more: Poll: Sanders moves ahead of Clinton by 5 in Iowa - POLITICO

 

[phgreek]

In Iowa, Sanders holds an 11-point advantage among those reporting an income of $50,000 or less. Among those earning $100,000 or more, meanwhile, Clinton leads Sanders by 13 points. (Sanders also holds a 5-point lead among those with an income between $50,000 and $100,000.)

Read more: Poll: Sanders moves ahead of Clinton by 5 in Iowa - POLITICO

welp...we'll see how hands off the Clintons are with Bernie...He is going to find out he should have been throwing punches. Either way...Go Bernie. I'll take a self-avowed socialist over someone that should have Rico charges pending.

If he runs Hillary off that would be one part of my wish for 2016...Now if someone could run the Donald off this might actually work out to be a campaign about ideas...

 

[Veritate Duce Progredi]

welp...we'll see how hands off the Clintons are with Bernie...He is going to find out he should have been throwing punches. Either way...Go Bernie. I'll take a self-avowed socialist over someone that should have Rico charges pending.

If he runs Hillary off that would be one part of my wish for 2016...Now if someone could run the Donald off this might actually work out to be a campaign about ideas...

Agreed. Give me a Bernie vs. Rubio or Bernie vs. anyone besides Trump. Then I'll almost feel like the US can't lose.

I think we all lose if Hillary or Trump are elected.

 

[GoIrish41]

welp...we'll see how hands off the Clintons are with Bernie...He is going to find out he should have been throwing punches. Either way...Go Bernie. I'll take a self-avowed socialist over someone that should have Rico charges pending.

If he runs Hillary off that would be one part of my wish for 2016...Now if someone could run the Donald off this might actually work out to be a campaign about ideas...

I think Bernie is playing it right ... above the fray. Hillary is trying to come out swinging, but I think her change in tactics is actually going to cost her support -- at least in the two early races in Iowa and NH. She'll start to pick up delegates on Super Tuesday when the majority of the minority vote comes into play (she has all the Slick Willy residual love from them). Hopefully, momentum comes into play for Sanders following two early primary victories. But, it looks like a long shot no matter how much I'd like to see it happen.

Someone better get busy if they are going to run Trump off, I think. (And, if that someone is Cruz, I'm not sure anything has been accomplished as far as selecting a more "electable" candidate). I thought after the last election with the findings of the "autopsy" that the GOP commissioned, they would at least attempt to be a kinder, gentler more inclusive party. Instead, they let it all ride on the most mean-spirited, coarse and bigoted a-hole in the party. If they were smart, they'd pick Rubio or Kasich. Those two could probably peel off some independents to the GOP ledger. But, astonishingly, between those two, they don't have half of the support that Trump has. Trump is representing what a very large portion of the GOP is right now. It's sad and frightening, really. If I were a Republican, I'd be praying that a loss in Iowa would shock Trump supporters into reality and his candidacy would fizzle away as fast as it appeared. He has no shot at winning the White House no matter who wins on the other side.

 

[Whiskeyjack]

Someone better get busy if they are going to run Trump off, I think. (And, if that someone is Cruz, I'm not sure anything has been accomplished as far as selecting a more "electable" candidate).

I'd sooner vote for Trump than Cruz. Trump is an obnoxious narcissist, but Cruz is a pure demagogue. Of the two, he's far more dangerous.

I thought after the last election with the findings of the "autopsy" that the GOP commissioned, they would at least attempt to be a kinder, gentler more inclusive party. Instead, they let it all ride on the most mean-spirited, coarse and bigoted a-hole in the party.

What "they" are you referring to here? The GOP Establishment is terrified of Trump, and has done everything in its power to undermine his campaign. But that's part of his appeal. Lots of Trumpistas support him as a crude gesture to the GOP

 

[GoIrish41]

I'd sooner vote for Trump than Cruz.



What "they" are you referring to here? The GOP Establishment is terrified of Trump, and has done everything in its power to undermine his campaign. But that's part of his appeal. Lots of Trumpistas support him as a crude gesture to the GOP

I'd rather stick a fork in my eye than vote for either Trump or Cruz ... but perhaps many would believe that I am biased. lol

On the bolded ... Fair point. But sticking it to your own party establishment seems, at best, counter-productive. That said, I'm talking about anyone who is really serious about getting a Republican elected to the presidency. Candidates like Trump and Cruz are not serious candidates. One of them might well get the GOP nomination (it seems almost inevitable at this point), but neither stands a chance of getting elected nationally. So who are the Trumpistas (good word, by the way) hurting?

 

[Whiskeyjack]

On the bolded ... Fair point. But sticking it to your own party establishment seems, at best, counter-productive. That said, I'm talking about anyone who is really serious about getting a Republican elected to the presidency. Candidates like Trump and Cruz are not serious candidates. One of them might well get the GOP nomination (it seems almost inevitable at this point), but neither stands a chance of getting elected nationally. So who are the Trumpistas (good word, by the way) hurting?

Subrational and irrational impulses drive politics much more than most like to imagine. I'd suggest that the average American voter does not engage in a cold calculation regarding realpolitik when deciding who to support. Trump's narrative is speaking to a large demographic that has been more or less ignored by both major parties for the last couple decades. You're correct that the GOP would be more competitive if such voters threw their support behind a more mainstream candidate; but most of them would likely tell you they're not interested in supporting the GOP Establishment, since it hasn't been interested in supporting them.

 

[Cackalacky]

I have not heard much about it but I am starting to hear some Republicans mentioning it recently, but does anyone think Cruz could be denied the nomination since he is not a naturally born citizen and apparently does not meet the criteria for running for president?

 

[GoIrish41]

Subrational and irrational impulses drive politics much more than most like to imagine. I'd suggest that the average American voter does not engage in a cold calculation regarding realpolitik when deciding who to support. Trump's narrative is speaking to a large demographic that has been more or less ignored by both major parties for the last couple decades. You're correct that the GOP would be more competitive if such voters threw their support behind a more mainstream candidate; but most of them would likely tell you they're not interested in supporting the GOP Establishment, since it hasn't been interested in supporting them.

I agree with this mostly. But I'm not suggesting the get behind Jeb or some other establishment darling. Just someone who does not make the collective skin of American voters crawl.

The GOP is so helplessly divided that the only solution to the trap they find themselves in is a third party. That of course would also be a disaster as the competing ideologies within the GOP seem only to agree on their distaste for compromise. I am a Democrat who happens to believe that a strong opposition party is critical for our democracy. If I came up with a plan to never win the White House, it would look a lot like the GOP is doing this cycle and the last three or four, too. The harder they push for policies that are out of line with the bulk of the country, the more they will lose.

And while Trump has a large number of supporters, they don't equal half of his own party and won't carry him to the White House. Worse, his rhetoric is just as off putting to everyone else in the party that even if he wins the nomination a lot of republicans will stay home for the general election and that means an embarrassing loss for the GOP. I think it could also negatively affect congressional races for GOP candidates if folks stay home on Election Day. I don't see an upside for them here. Irrational anger and contempt gets them nothing.

If they think Hillary is as bad as they say, run someone who has a chance to win. Instead they choose a path of petty mudslinging and obstruction that hurts everyone. If these folks want to concede the election to make a point, then they should let the person who gets elected govern instead of the crap they put Obama through for the last 7 years. The only place sticking it to your own party leads is a place where angry people become angrier and nothing productive happens.

 

[NDohio]

I have not heard much about it but I am starting to hear some Republicans mentioning it recently, but does anyone think Cruz could be denied the nomination since he is not a naturally born citizen and apparently does not meet the criteria for running for president?

I have heard rumblings of it. I was meaning to do some research on it and forgot about it, thanks for the reminder.

 

[GoIrish41]

I have not heard much about it but I am starting to hear some Republicans mentioning it recently, but does anyone think Cruz could be denied the nomination since he is not a naturally born citizen and apparently does not meet the criteria for running for president?

We had a president from Kenya ... Why not a Canadian?

 

[NDVirginia19]

I have not heard much about it but I am starting to hear some Republicans mentioning it recently, but does anyone think Cruz could be denied the nomination since he is not a naturally born citizen and apparently does not meet the criteria for running for president?

I think it's pretty clear legally that he's eligible... although the Rubio supporter in me secretly wants him to be denied so that the sane people who give him their support will coalesce around Marco

 

[woolybug25]

I think it's pretty clear legally that he's eligible... although the Rubio supporter in me secretly wants him to be denied so that the sane people who give him their support will coalesce around Marco

Not saying you're wrong, but can you explain why? He was clearly born in Canada and the constitution states they must be born in the US. Hell, conservatives were foaming at the mouth at Obama being born in Kenya (which he wasn't) and didn't give too snaps about whether or not he was a US citizen born in another country. What's the difference?

 

[kmoose]

Not saying you're wrong, but can you explain why? He was clearly born in Canada and the constitution states they must be born in the US. Hell, conservatives were foaming at the mouth at Obama being born in Kenya (which he wasn't) and didn't give too snaps about whether or not he was a US citizen born in another country. What's the difference?

I don't think the Constitution spells out that they have to be born in the US, just that they have to be a natural born citizen. I take that to mean someone who is a citizen by birth, not by going through the naturalization process. Because Cruz's mother was an American, he was considered an American by birth, even though that birth happened in Canada.

 

[IrishJayhawk]

Not saying you're wrong, but can you explain why? He was clearly born in Canada and the constitution states they must be born in the US. Hell, conservatives were foaming at the mouth at Obama being born in Kenya (which he wasn't) and didn't give too snaps about whether or not he was a US citizen born in another country. What's the difference?

To the first point..."Natural born citizen" is ambiguous. Most people think it includes Cruz, but even McCain had an official ruling on him because he was born on an army base. I don't think anyone really thinks that Cruz is ineligible.

Why did they care about Obama and not Cruz? Isn't it obvious? 43% of republicans still think he's a Muslim.

A staggering number of Republicans believe President Obama is a Muslim - Salon.com

 

[kmoose]

To the first point..."Natural born citizen" is ambiguous. Most people think it includes Cruz, but even McCain had an official ruling on him because he was born on an army base. I don't think anyone really thinks that Cruz is ineligible.

Why did they care about Obama and not Cruz? Isn't it obvious? 43% of republicans still think he's a Muslim.

A staggering number of Republicans believe President Obama is a Muslim - Salon.com

*shrugs* I don't know why people care about Obama and not Cruz, other than they cared about Obama when they were running a campaign against him. I was just chiming in on the Constitutional requirement. At least, as I understand it.