College Football Playoff Rankings 2015 (ND #8...)

[IrishinSyria]

There's no argument that OSU was the best team in the country at the end of the year. But there is an argument as to whether they had earned their way into the final 4, IMO.

I would even argue that last year's TCU might have been better at the end of the year.

 

[GoIrish41]

The margin of error goes down in terms of "who gets in," but it is unchanged as it relates to who actually wins the championship.

Championship odds for the top eight teams under a four-team playoff:

1. 25%
2. 25%
3. 25%
4. 25%
5. 0%
6. 0%
7. 0%
8. 0%

Championship odds for the top eight teams under an eight-team playoff:

1. 12.5%
2. 12.5%
3. 12.5%
4. 12.5%
5. 12.5%
6. 12.5%
7. 12.5%
8. 12.5%

But every team that gets in has an opportunity to prove it on the field ... As it should be. Reducing the chances of some team getting left out is the most important thing, in my opinion.

 

[koonja]

Pull up a chair and I'll pour you a glass of Kool-aid. I'm very confident for a number of reasons that we get in if we beat Stanford. Does anyone want to be 100 billion vbucks that we beat Stanford and we don't? Cause I'll go against that all day. We said it in week 6: a 1-loss ND team is not getting left out. I guarantee it.

The committee wants one more big win out of us. Navy isn't it, and @Stanford can do it.

We're going to beat the Pac12 winner, which is more of a conference champ than the BiG 12 winner.

Oklahoma has a coin flip at best chance of beating Oklahoma State. Neither team is elite but Oklahoma's last win was fool's gold in a game they knew they needed to dominate, and they couldn't. Have fun in Bedlam.

FSU will beat Florida and I'll give someone 2:1 odds on that. Then we can root for madness in the SEC champ game.

Iowa is a coin flip at Nebraska, who's coming off a bye and going to get bowl elegible with a win.

MSU still doesn't have a QB, and PSU will have film on their backups. Not to mention the hangover, my goodness.

Our team hasn't put together a full game since Texas. This is their chance to do it. We beat Stanford by 14, good luck keeping the Irish out of the playoffs, committee. This country will burn to the ground before that happens. WeAreND!

 

[IrishSteelhead]

I absolutely think we can get in with an Oklahoma win. They'd need to win by ~7 or less. We'd need to win by at least that margin, much preferably more.

Other factors:

Oklahoma has some serious injury, maybe at QB/RB/Sheppard during the game. We look good with Adams and Watkins/Butler/Coleman at corner.

Out past teams show out: I don't like Pitt against Miami at all, nor do I like USC against anyone right now, especially UCLA. Temple and Navy need to hold serve, and Navy is in for a battle IMO. Almost 0% chance all of this happens, but if it does, our resume would blow theirs out of the water.

You're missing the most important part: The dreaded "eye test." Nobody realizes Temple and Navy are good, because they don't watch them, and dismiss them as "they're Temple and Navy, c'mon now." Teams like Okie Light, Baylor, and TCU have had plenty of spotlight games, and regardless of their actual ability, are always going to be considered a more formidable opponent than anything that comes out of the AAC.

 

[koonja]

You're missing the most important part: The dreaded "eye test." Nobody realizes Temple and Navy are good, because they don't watch them, and dismiss them as "they're Temple and Navy, c'mon now." Teams like Okie Light, Baylor, and TCU have had plenty of spotlight games, and regardless of their actual ability, are always going to be considered a more formidable opponent than anything that comes out of the AAC.

I edited my post you drunk bastard.

 

[woolybug25]

You're missing the most important part: The dreaded "eye test." Nobody realizes Temple and Navy are good, because they don't watch them, and dismiss them as "they're Temple and Navy, c'mon now." Teams like Okie Light, Baylor, and TCU have had plenty of spotlight games, and regardless of their actual ability, are always going to be considered a more formidable opponent than anything that comes out of the AAC.

Yeah, but they are ranked #15 right now and have an outside shot of landing in the top 10 after this weekend. If the playoff committee gets their hand forced into putting them into a major bowl game, I fail to see how they ignore the fact that Notre Dame beat them.

 

[wizards8507]

But every team that gets in has an opportunity to prove it on the field ... As it should be. Reducing the chances of some team getting left out is the most important thing, in my opinion.

But the #1 team already has proven it on the field over the course of a long season. Forcing that team to go though an additional playoff round is completely backwards.

 

[woolybug25]

But the #1 team already has proven it on the field over the course of a long season. Forcing that team to go though an additional playoff round is completely backwards.

That's why I would love a 6 team playoff with first round byes for the top two ranked teams. Gives quasi automatic bids to 0-2 loss conference champs and leaves room for deserving 0-2 loss independents. It would also put more importance on getting a top two ranking. Making the BCS lovers something to smile about.

It will never happen, but a girl can dream.

 

[johnnycando]

Yeah, but they are ranked #15 right now and have an outside shot of landing in the top 10 after this weekend. If the playoff committee gets their hand forced into putting them into a major bowl game, I fail to see how they ignore the fact that Notre Dame beat them.

Agreed and great point.

Temple and Navy.

Pitt will be ranked soon.

And USC will also be ranked by the end of season, especially if they win the Pac 12.

So, possibly Stanford, Navy, Temple, Pitt, and USC ranked at season's end. And a 2 pt loss to Clemson granted they beat UNC.

We gotta be a head turner in that circumstance.

And the fact we SA-Mashed Texas. Whom bested Okie.

Cmon.

 

[NDShark]

Agreed and great point.

Temple and Navy.

Pitt will be ranked soon.

And USC will also be ranked by the end of season, especially if they win the Pac 12.

So, possibly Stanford, Navy, Temple, Pitt, and USC ranked at season's end. And a 2 pt loss to Clemson granted they beat UNC.

We gotta be a head turner in that circumstance.

And the fact we SA-Mashed Texas. Whom bested Okie.

Cmon.

But, Texas wasn't the same team when we played them! ::CFP / Oklahoma logic::

 

[beryirish]

But, Texas wasn't the same team when we played them! ::CFP / Oklahoma logic::

Yeah a different team that lost last week to West Virginia 38-20 and lost to Iowa State on Halloween 24-0. And 50-7 to TCU Oct. 3.

They've come a long way...

Whatever makes their case.

 

[rocket66]

Yeah, but they are ranked #15 right now and have an outside shot of landing in the top 10 after this weekend. If the playoff committee gets their hand forced into putting them into a major bowl game, I fail to see how they ignore the fact that Notre Dame beat them.

Exactly my man. A lot of fans and media get all caught up in these weekly rankings updates and try to set them as gospel for the rest of the season. It's so fluid that it's not even worth discussing. If we beat Stanford we'll have a huge narrative working for us during championship week with Stanford and Navy playing for conference titles. Hell, we may have wins over all 4 teams playing in those two title games.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Irish#1]

And just a couple of weeks ago, nobody was bashing the selection committee because of the "eye test" or any other subjective process. Now that we're out of the top four the committee is flawed. Gotta love it! lol

Just Win Baby!

 

[ulukinatme]

Yeah a different team that lost last week to West Virginia 38-20 and lost to Iowa State on Halloween 24-0. And 50-7 to TCU Oct. 3.

They've come a long way...

Whatever makes their case.

I'll admit, I thought Texas turned a corner after that Oklahoma game. They settled on Heard to lead the offense, they pulled the upset against the Sooners, and then the next week they beat a Kansas State team that usually is very disciplined. Kansas State has some major issues this year though. Then they had the 5 turnover Iowa State debacle, and the West Virginia loss didn't help them either. I still think they'll be a better team next year, if Strong is able to hand around, but they certainly haven't improved much if any this year.

 

[johnnycando]

Baylor is looking more and more bleak:

Baylor Bears QB Jarrett Stidham out for rest of regular season with broken bone in ankle

 

[GATTACA!]

Anyone think we can jump OU even if they win? Maybe if we end the season with 5 ranked opponents? Could happen. Pitt at 9-3 (favored by 6 this week) would almost definitely end up in the final rankings. Navy and Stanford are seemingly locks to finish ranked. If Temple beats UCONN this week and beats Navy/Houston in the AAC Championship then they will finish ranked. If USC can beat UCLA this week (favored by 3) and Stanford next week, they'll be ranked for sure.

Might be enough to jump OU even if they finish 11-1. The committee would really have to bend over backwards to rank Tennessee or WVU it seems like, and 9-3 Pitt could even be ahead of 9-3 TCU if they lose badly this Friday.

They talk about wins over top-25 opponents every week...would look very odd for them to leave ND out if we finish with 4 or 5 of those wins compared to OU having 3 and Bama finishing with most likely 2.

The problem with thinking about the rankings in terms of top 25 wins and how we could potentially add a few more is that it's still all up to the subjective committee. If they want to put Oklahoma in the top4 over us than they will keep out Pitt and USC to help justify their decision. They basically get a chance to set up the board in a way that forms the structure of the top of the rankings.

 

[IrishinSyria]

Best case scenario? ND gets left out of the playoffs, Oklahoma goes on to win, ND voted co-national champions.

 

[IrishLax]

Best case scenario? ND gets left out of the playoffs, Oklahoma goes on to win, ND voted co-national champions.

Alternate best case scenario: ND gets in the playoffs, beats two teams, gets crowned actual national champions.

 

[greyhammer90]

Alternate best case scenario: ND gets in the playoffs, beats two teams, gets crowned actual national champions.

I'll take door no. 2.

 

[johnnycando]

The problem with thinking about the rankings in terms of top 25 wins and how we could potentially add a few more is that it's still all up to the subjective committee. If they want to put Oklahoma in the top4 over us than they will keep out Pitt and USC to help justify their decision. They basically get a chance to set up the board in a way that forms the structure of the top of the rankings.

That is very true...

Absolute power corrupts. Absolutely.

 

[Legacy]

Not having a Big 12 title game could actually help Oklahoma, and 3 other Playoff ranking takeaways - SBNation.com

Their consensus picks happen to be the same as mine. ND#3, Iowa #4. We'll said by Kirk "The explanation for Oklahoma at #3 is the Committee's worst yet."

 

[IrishLax]

I love how 6 of 8 SBNation people had us in the top 4, 4 of 8 had us at #3. Only three guys had OU in, and none had them at #3.

And somehow you get a committee together and they get OU at #3 and ND all the way down at 6. There is no method to the madness, they just make it up as they go.

 

[IrishinSyria]

I love how 6 of 8 SBNation people had us in the top 4, 4 of 8 had us at #3. Only three guys had OU in, and none had them at #3.

And somehow you get a committee together and they get OU at #3 and ND all the way down at 6. There is no method to the madness, they just make it up as they go.

Thing is there's really no principled way to distinguish #s 3-6. You can certainly make a strong argument for ND, but the same is true for Oklahoma and Iowa and Sparty.

Personally, I think our loss at Clemson cuts somewhat against us. If you accept that no matter what the playoff system is going to be an imperfect process that leaves out deserving teams (and I believe this is true no matter how big the playoff gets) then you might reasonably think that a team that already had a chance to make a statement win and failed to do so shouldn't get another bite at the apple.

e. also troubling is this language:

The criteria to be provided to the selection committee must be aligned with the ideals of the commissioners, presidents, athletic directors and coaches to honor regular season success while at the same time providing enough flexibility and discretion to select a non-champion or independent under circumstances where that particular non-champion or independent is unequivocally one of the four best teams in the country.

ND is not unequivocally one of the four best teams in the country. We are arguably one of the four best. If the committee takes that language seriously, we are at a serious disadvantage. I legitimately don't see how you could put us in over Oklahoma given the unequivocal standard.

 

[Cackalacky]

Do we know if they are using the FPI as part of their decision tree because if so that sucks.

 

[GoldenDomer]

Everyone today, (Finebaum, Cowherd, etc.) all dont like the Top 4. Cowherd was really pissed that ND got dropped.

 

[ab2cmiller]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Long: Oklahoma was solidly in control of TCU game when Baker Mayfield got hurt and committee evaluated it that way despite close win.</p>— Jon Solomon (@JonSolomonCBS) <a href="https://twitter.com/JonSolomonCBS/status/669314971956862976">November 25, 2015</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Just Wow.

 

[dang227]

I really am of the belief was just trolling ND. A week ago we were strong #4 then a week later after a win we drop to #6 behind two teams whose resumes are no better when you break them down. One lost to Texas and the other to Nebraska for gods sake.

 

[Luckylucci]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Long: Oklahoma was solidly in control of TCU game when Baker Mayfield got hurt and committee evaluated it that way despite close win.</p>— Jon Solomon (@JonSolomonCBS) <a href="https://twitter.com/JonSolomonCBS/status/669314971956862976">November 25, 2015</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Just Wow.

Yea, the rationale used is just ridiculous. Very contradictory statements which leads me to believe its just BS. They are looking for ratings and buzz versus doing a good job.

 

[NDWorld247]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Long: Oklahoma was solidly in control of TCU game when Baker Mayfield got hurt and committee evaluated it that way despite close win.</p>— Jon Solomon (@JonSolomonCBS) <a href="https://twitter.com/JonSolomonCBS/status/669314971956862976">November 25, 2015</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Just Wow.

I don't have a problem with the committee evaluating it in that sense. That in itself is fair.

However, as bad as we played against BC, we had "game control" as BK said in the post game presser. The game was never in doubt.

 

[johnnycando]

Head up, chin down, chest out. Knees bent.

Quick punches boys. No haymakers until it opens up.

Then one hitter quitter.

Until then, man up and hold the fuck on.

Chop a Tree down, and the rest will fall into place.