College Football Playoff Rankings 2015 (ND #8...)

[rocket66]

It's really going to come down to how we look vs Stanford and how OU looks vs OSU. That's going to be the debate for that final spot. The committee is going to want the team playing it's best.


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[Wingman Ray]

OU jumping us is a good thing really. That means OU gets to play Bama week 1 and ND has rematch with Clemson. Best of both worlds.

Now if BK can just get the team to play good against Stanford....

Why cant he get them up for one game? So sick of hearing everyone plays their best and gets up for ND. Why cant he get ND up?

OK state gone. Baylor gone. OSU gone. TCU out. No way Iowa wins B10.

 

[Cackalacky]

Why is everyone sure OSU is out of it? Do they fall that far out of the top 4? They still may have two games left.

 

[Sherm Sticky]

Why is everyone sure OSU is out of it? Do they fall that far out of the top 4? They still may have two games left.

They are done baring a series of miracles.


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[NDohio]

Why is everyone sure OSU is out of it? Do they fall that far out of the top 4? They still may have two games left.

It seems like the only thing they had going for them was they were defending champs that didn't lose too much to graduation.

I think the committee sees them as the fraud they are. They really aren't a very good team - tons of talent but something is definitely missing(offensive coordinator imo). They really have a horrible schedule and haven't looked impressive while playing that schedule.

 

[IrishSteelhead]

They are done baring a series of miracles.


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1. Penn State beats MSU
2. OSU beats scUM
3. OSU beats Iowa

All 3 of those have to happen for OSU to get in. Definitely outside looking in at this point

 

[Cackalacky]

They are done baring a series of miracles.


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If they beat Michigan and MSU loses next week they win they win their division and get to play Iowa. If they don't fall too far for losing to the 7th ranked team ... I don't see those as miracles... they need help but so does other teams. They are not out of it or eliminated yet.

 

[IrishLax]

Why is everyone sure OSU is out of it? Do they fall that far out of the top 4? They still may have two games left.

Personally, I don't see how they could possibly get in besides "defending champ" bullshit.

Their only way in to the Big Ten championship is a win over Michigan coupled with a MSU loss. So then suddenly you have a home loss to MSU, your best win is over 3-loss Michigan, and then you get to play Iowa in the Big Ten championship. Then let's say they beat Iowa.

They'll have two good wins... over a top 10 Iowa team, and over a top 20 Michigan. The rest of their resume will look really bad relative to the other teams, whether they're Bama or Clemson or ND or Big 12. They'll be missing SOS and games over decent teams with winning records.

ND will finish the year with a win over Stanford (comparable to Michigan, maybe better), a better loss, a win over Navy (only slightly less valuable than Iowa), and then wins over Temple and Pitt who will both be guaranteed to be in the top 30 and likely top 25. Oklahoma would finish the year with a Baylor win that is comparable to Iowa, an Oklahoma State win that is better/comparable to Michigan, and then Tenn+TCU wins that Ohio State doesn't have. Same logic basically applies to whoever comes out of the Big 12, minus the Tennessee win.

So really the only way I see Ohio State getting in (assuming all the Michigan State stuff breaks their way) is one of:
1) Chaos, like Bama losing to Florida or something.
2) ND loses to Stanford.
3) Oklahoma loses to Oklahoma State, and Ohio State destroys both Michigan and Iowa "looking good."

 

[Wingman Ray]

If ND beats Stanford they are in period. If not, then they arent and honestly, dont deserve to be anyway. Coming in as the 4th seed is the best place ND can really want to be as Bama is steamrolling right now and will crush whoever they play week 1.

 

[Bogtrotter07]

Clemson
Bama
ND
Iowa
Oklahoma
MSU

Fbolt has spoken.


That is all.

I think this is it also.

Ugly win and all.

This is it. Iowa and MSU will sort this matter out.

Okie St I think will beat OU.

Then we'll just have Stanford to worry about. Which is a lot.

I think you guys have the physics right, and maybe the chemistry; But the politics for committee success look more like :

Clemson (little doubt, but if you noticed they beat WF by a slightly narrower margin which has to help ND.)
Bama (because they are 'Bama and SEC, and with playing a cupcake they have set themselves up; They are a team with little margin for error. Mark my words, their margin of victory against Auburn matters, and if they don't beat the gators for the SEC, the SEC could and should be shut out of the playoffs!0
Iowa or MSU (One of these B1GOT teams will replace the Buckeyes. If the Buckeyes fall far enough, it will be Iowa. If not, MSU. As far as what we will see in the final poll is one B1GOT team in, and the rest clustered at the bottom of the top ten, too far away to make a move. Unless, Nebraska beats Iowa, especially if Iowa still wins the B1GOT championship. I didn't see this as even a possibility until I spent some time watching Michigan, PSU, OSU and MSU yesterday. P-U!)
ND
Iowa or MSU (The other.)
Oklahoma (All this talk about their great football? They are playing well, but it is against Big12 teams that are pretenders. If OSU falls far enough, and I think the committee is just ready to do that, a win against the Cowboys may not be enough. But the Sooners have no guarantees, they are more beat up than the Irish, particularly at the offensive skill positions, among the crew who are the productivity leaders.)

Personally, I don't see how they could possibly get in besides "defending champ" bullshit.

Their only way in to the Big Ten championship is a win over Michigan coupled with a MSU loss. So then suddenly you have a home loss to MSU, your best win is over 3-loss Michigan, and then you get to play Iowa in the Big Ten championship. Then let's say they beat Iowa.

They'll have two good wins... over a top 10 Iowa team, and over a top 20 Michigan. The rest of their resume will look really bad relative to the other teams, whether they're Bama or Clemson or ND or Big 12. They'll be missing SOS and games over decent teams with winning records.

ND will finish the year with a win over Stanford (comparable to Michigan, maybe better), a better loss, a win over Navy (only slightly less valuable than Iowa), and then wins over Temple and Pitt who will both be guaranteed to be in the top 30 and likely top 25. Oklahoma would finish the year with a Baylor win that is comparable to Iowa, an Oklahoma State win that is better/comparable to Michigan, and then Tenn+TCU wins that Ohio State doesn't have. Same logic basically applies to whoever comes out of the Big 12, minus the Tennessee win.

So really the only way I see Ohio State getting in (assuming all the Michigan State stuff breaks their way) is one of:
1) Chaos, like Bama losing to Florida or something.
2) ND loses to Stanford.
3) Oklahoma loses to Oklahoma State, and Ohio State destroys both Michigan and Iowa "looking good."

Great post, LAX!

The anarchist in me wants to see UF beat 'Bama! But how could that even be possible? That would be like changing the laws of physics, or something.

I think OU is more banged up that ND. And I think OSU is smarting. I think OSU will win at Stillwater. Everyone talks about how great OU is doing. They only beat TCU by one point! The same TCU whose coach obviously had a seizure before or during his decision for a two point attempt to try to win the game with less than a minute left! The same TCU team that has been repeatedly molested since their scoring leaders have been banged up.

The other point I refuse to render a direct comment. I do not have happy thoughts about the ND coaching staff and their 'more aggressive play selection' after last nights game! F-T-S!

It's really going to come down to how we look vs Stanford and how OU looks vs OSU. That's going to be the debate for that final spot. The committee is going to want the team playing it's best.


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AND, how the B1GOT and SEC shake out. That could turn the college world upside down.

And on a negative note : The other thing nobody has mentioned is, what if UNC totally roasts Clemson, or even makes the game close. I think either would be morte for ND!

 

[Cackalacky]

Personally, I don't see how they could possibly get in besides "defending champ" bullshit.

Their only way in to the Big Ten championship is a win over Michigan coupled with a MSU loss. So then suddenly you have a home loss to MSU, your best win is over 3-loss Michigan, and then you get to play Iowa in the Big Ten championship. Then let's say they beat Iowa.

They'll have two good wins... over a top 10 Iowa team, and over a top 20 Michigan. The rest of their resume will look really bad relative to the other teams, whether they're Bama or Clemson or ND or Big 12. They'll be missing SOS and games over decent teams with winning records.

ND will finish the year with a win over Stanford (comparable to Michigan, maybe better), a better loss, a win over Navy (only slightly less valuable than Iowa), and then wins over Temple and Pitt who will both be guaranteed to be in the top 30 and likely top 25. Oklahoma would finish the year with a Baylor win that is comparable to Iowa, an Oklahoma State win that is better/comparable to Michigan, and then Tenn+TCU wins that Ohio State doesn't have. Same logic basically applies to whoever comes out of the Big 12, minus the Tennessee win.

So really the only way I see Ohio State getting in (assuming all the Michigan State stuff breaks their way) is one of:
1) Chaos, like Bama losing to Florida or something.
2) ND loses to Stanford.
3) Oklahoma loses to Oklahoma State, and Ohio State destroys both Michigan and Iowa "looking good."

Good thoughts here. My question mainly hinges on how far they fall and what happens next week and are they in a good enough position to win out and still get there. They are still an 10-1 defending national champion. I think.the committee shows them a bunch of respect. I hope I am wrong but I have a hard time.seeing how the committee fully shuts the door on them.

 

[BeauBenken]

OSU losing has no real effect on our playoff chances. Sparty or Iowa will get in. It's a wash.

Unless Michigan plays in the championship game, and then beats Iowa. Then I think you're stuck with zero Big Ten teams in the playoffs. That'd be interesting.

 

[BeauBenken]

While I get that everyone is upset with our play last night (I drank enough to not care), I still think if we beat Stanford, we are in.

FWIW, I was enjoying the OSU-MSU game yesterday with Buckeye fans, Michigan fans, and MSU fans. The Michigan fan was adamant that Iowa was the real deal and would win the B1G. The MSU fan was not so sure that Sparty would beat PSU. Cook is out (yea, OSU got BEAT by a combination of the 2nd and 3rd string QBs), and they really miss him. Not sure of his status for next week, but the man wasn't confident in his team going into OSU and even after beating them and feeling good, still thinks PSU is a hurdle.

 

[dad4aa]

Clemson and Bama are in if they win. No question.

IMO, if ND wins, they are in.

If Michigan wins the B1G they are out of the playoffs. Too many 1 loss teams for Michigan to advance. If Iowa wins out, they will be in. If MSU wins out and Oklahoma wins out, I believe it is a toss up between them.

Oklahoma, IMO, is the only Big 12 team that has a chance. Everyone is starting to see the other Big 12 teams are overrated with no defense. However, I do not believe Oklahoma will get in over us if we both win out.

 

[nd_fan]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">My top 4 after week 12.
1-Clemson
2-Bama
3-Michigan St.
4-Oklahoma
Next 2
ND
Baylor
2 weeks to play!. <a href="https://twitter.com/CollegeGameDay">@CollegeGameDay</a></p>— Kirk Herbstreit (@KirkHerbstreit) <a href="https://twitter.com/KirkHerbstreit/status/668432230922850304">November 22, 2015</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

 

[Green Mountains]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">My top 4 after week 12.
1-Clemson
2-Bama
3-Michigan St.
4-Oklahoma
Next 2
ND
Baylor
2 weeks to play!. <a href="https://twitter.com/CollegeGameDay">@CollegeGameDay</a></p>— Kirk Herbstreit (@KirkHerbstreit) <a href="https://twitter.com/KirkHerbstreit/status/668432230922850304">November 22, 2015</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

No OSU bias there, huh?

That's not what the committee will do. There is no way MSU moves from 9 to 3. It's just not gonna happen. And I don't think OU's victory over a soon to be out of the top 25 TCU moves them ahead of ND.

 

[Bogtrotter07]

Why is everyone sure OSU is out of it? Do they fall that far out of the top 4? They still may have two games left.

If they beat Michigan and MSU loses next week they win they win their division and get to play Iowa. If they don't fall too far for losing to the 7th ranked team ... I don't see those as miracles... they need help but so does other teams. They are not out of it or eliminated yet.

A) That sound just before the ND game started last night was the wheels coming off in Columbus. Really, two of the top offensive producers openly criticizing the coaching staff at the Buckeye press conference! And using said conference to declare themselves for the draft?

[This does generate at least one random question : I wonder if Zeke's dad will still ride heard as the head of "Parents for everyone else's kids playing for Urban Meyer?"

B) The committee has just been looking for a reason to sink the Buckeyes. Politically, it solidifies them with three elements that draw a lot of viewership, at the cost of one (granted large, but just one) team fan base.

C) MSU has less chance to lose at home next week against a PSU team that can't finish a game to save their collective lives, than the Buckeyes have to win on the road where their opponent is looking for some serious vengeance, and has everything to win. Everybody associated with UM thinks all the Wolverines need to do is win out and they are in. Delusion goes a long way with some creatures. Just look at the wolverine, as found in nature.

D) The playoff committee really doesn't fall for the 'losses to each other count less because we are such a great conference' argument. Not with the SEC, not with the PAC12, definitely with the Big12, so why would they start with the B1GOT. What conferences, by the way, have the best records against out of conference opponents that have beat somebody this year?

 

[Pops Freshenmeyer]

No OSU bias there, huh?

That's not what the committee will do. There is no way MSU moves from 9 to 3. It's just not gonna happen. And I don't think OU's victory over a soon to be out of the top 25 TCU moves them ahead of ND.

He's not predicting what the committee will do; he's got his own weekly rankings going. Last week it was:

1-Clemson
2-Alabama
3-Ohio State
4-Oklahoma State
Next 2
Oklahoma
ND

 

[IrishJayhawk]

AND, how the B1GOT and SEC shake out. That could turn the college world upside down.

B1GOT? What's that all about?

 

[Cackalacky]

A) That sound just before the ND game started last night was the wheels coming off in Columbus. Really, two of the top offensive producers openly criticizing the coaching staff at the Buckeye press conference! And using said conference to declare themselves for the draft?

[This does generate at least one random question : I wonder if Zeke's dad will still ride heard as the head of "Parents for everyone else's kids playing for Urban Meyer?"

B) The committee has just been looking for a reason to sink the Buckeyes. Politically, it solidifies them with three elements that draw a lot of viewership, at the cost of one (granted large, but just one) team fan base.

C) MSU has less chance to lose at home next week against a PSU team that can't finish a game to save their collective lives, than the Buckeyes have to win on the road where their opponent is looking for some serious vengeance, and has everything to win. Everybody associated with UM thinks all the Wolverines need to do is win out and they are in. Delusion goes a long way with some creatures. Just look at the wolverine, as found in nature.

D) The playoff committee really doesn't fall for the 'losses to each other count less because we are such a great conference' argument. Not with the SEC, not with the PAC12, definitely with the Big12, so why would they start with the B1GOT. What conferences, by the way, have the best records against out of conference opponents that have beat somebody this year?

All good points. I am definitely looking for some rationale to form an opinion. I am asking not.to disagree but to get some other perspectives. How much credit do they have with the committee?

 

[gkIrish]

I think it's going to look pretty close to this:

Clemson
Bama
ND
Oklahoma
Michigan State
Iowa
Baylor

2 weeks later:

Clemson
Bama
Iowa/Michigan St. winner
ND/Oklahoma based almost solely on how good each team looks next week.

 

[IrishLax]

B1GOT? What's that all about?

You don't know the history of the conference that once proposed a rule to make all coaches join the KKK?

 

[Pops Freshenmeyer]

I think it's going to look pretty close to this:

Clemson
Bama
ND
Oklahoma
Michigan State
Iowa
Baylor

2 weeks later:

Clemson
Bama
Iowa/Michigan St. winner
ND/Oklahoma based almost solely on how good each team looks next week.

I agree with all of this.

 

[IrishSteelhead]

College Football Playoff Rankings 2015 (ND #4!!!)

College Football Playoff Rankings 2015 (ND #4!!!)

Most chaotic scenario possible:

Bama loses to Auburn
Florida loses to FSU
OSU loses to scUM
Iowa loses to Nebraska
MSU loses to Penn State
ND loses to Stanford
Clemson loses to South Carolina
Baylor loses to TCU
Oklahoma loses to Okie Light

That would probably be the best weekend of football in the history of the sport, minus the one obvious team losing of course.

 

[johnnycando]

I agree with all of this.

Okie St will nullify this.

 

[Cackalacky]

B1GOT? What's that all about?

Get to learnin' son.

 

[gkIrish]

Most chaotic scenario possible:

Bama loses to Auburn
Florida loses to FSU
OSU loses to scUM
Iowa loses to Nebraska
MSU loses to Penn State
ND loses to Stanford
Clemson loses to South Carolina
Baylor loses to TCU
Oklahoma loses to Okie Light

That would probably be the best weekend of football in the history of the sport, minus the one obvious team losing of course.

That would be insane if even 3 of those things happen.

If it all went down the top 4 would probably be
Clemson
Stanford
Bama
Michigan
?

 

[IrishSteelhead]

All we have to do is win IMO. Something crazy will happen, and this whole sweating it out against OU's resume will be moot after next weekend.

*Until Florida beats Bama, and then it starts all over again....

 

[NDgradstudent]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">My top 4 after week 12.
1-Clemson
2-Bama
3-Michigan St.
4-Oklahoma
Next 2
ND
Baylor
2 weeks to play!. <a href="https://twitter.com/CollegeGameDay">@CollegeGameDay</a></p>— Kirk Herbstreit (@KirkHerbstreit) <a href="https://twitter.com/KirkHerbstreit/status/668432230922850304">November 22, 2015</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

I don't think this would look different if we had beaten BC 26-9. Or 40-9. Or whatever.

 

[BeauBenken]

For the OU v ND argument:

If Temple, Pitt, and Navy win out and ND beats Stanford, Notre Dame will finish with at least 3 (likely 4) wins against teams that finished in the committee's Top 25, as opposed to OU who would need TCU to beat Baylor to have a shot at having 3 wins against teams that finished in the committees Top 25. (Or I suppose the committee could put Tennessee in there, don't know exactly where they rank the Vols.)

I guess what I'm saying is that we need to root HEAVILY for Navy, Pittsburgh, and Temple.

If they all win out (which they should all be favored in their games), our resume is just flat better than OU's. We would have 4 wins against final Top 25 teams. We would have the head-to-head comparative against Texas. AND we would have the better loss BY FAR, 2 points at #1 Clemson v Unranked (likely) Bowl Inelligble Texas.