ND's Path to the 2015 Playoffs

[gkIrish]

Really interesting to see that. Yesterday AM on the college football show he said the exact opposite.

"If ND and OK both win out, the very different outcome of each team's game against Texas will be the difference with ND going to the playoffs. I just don't see how OK can overcome that."

Link? If that's true I'd like to send him that quote and ask why he changed his mind.

 

[Guest]

If Oklahoma wins out, they will more than likely be the biggest threat to the Irish for the playoffs.... but that Texas loss will be hard to overlook when comparing their body of work to the Irish's. Just sayin'

I think ND and Oklahoma, assuming both win out, will be on near equal footing. That's the problem with the playoff, it still relies on subjective analysis and a committee to determine the fate of teams with similar situations. Another reason for expanding the playoffs.

 

[NDohio]

Link? If that's true I'd like to send him that quote and ask why he changed his mind.

I'll have to search for it. It was on TV as I was walking out the door yesterday AM. Once he started talking about ND I stopped for a minute to hear what he had to say.

 

[koonja]

Couldn't his 'top 4' be different than what he thinks the committee would ultimately decide as the top 4?

So his has us out, the committee's he predicts to have us in?

 

[Irish Insanity]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Depends on how the teams play-Not just the results-To me if OU plays like they did last wk rest of the yr-they're in <a href="https://t.co/xtBoUtY4OL">https://t.co/xtBoUtY4OL</a></p>— Kirk Herbstreit (@KirkHerbstreit) <a href="https://twitter.com/KirkHerbstreit/status/666293317802459137">November 16, 2015</a></blockquote>
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Objective guy who is good at his job agrees with me that it's up in the air. But I'm just trolling here...

I'm not an objective guy but I've been on that side from the start.

 

[gkIrish]

I'll have to search for it. It was on TV as I was walking out the door yesterday AM. Once he started talking about ND I stopped for a minute to hear what he had to say.

Not saying you are making it up but he had a series of tweets today that all said he doesn't know who gets in between Oklahoma and ND. Said the Stanford loss really hurt us. So that's definitely not his opinion anymore.

 

[ickythump1225]

"GK is a pessimist so I'm going to dismiss his completely reasonable arguments."

Go ahead and feel that way if you want. Just don't cry if Oklahoma wins out and passes us because you refused to acknowledge that possibility.

I'm not "refusing to acknowledge" anything. I'm just saying there is zero correlation between what transpired between TCU, OSU, and Minnesota last year and us, Oklahoma, and Texas this year. None. Zero. Nada.

 

[Legacy]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">F/+ top 10 vs F/+ top 10:
1-0 Clemson, Oklahoma, Stanford
2-1 ND
0-0 Bama, Ohio St, Mich
0-1 Baylor, Navy
0-2 USC <a href="https://t.co/lZDcrze5mr">pic.twitter.com/lZDcrze5mr</a></p>— Brian Fremeau (@bcfremeau) <a href="https://twitter.com/bcfremeau/status/666310289407766528">November 16, 2015</a></blockquote>
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Very helpful in seeing part of what the Committee evaluates.

ND is the only team who has played three of the top ten teams, and to see who has not played any teams in the top ten, and where Iowa and Oklahoma State are ranked. Both have only faced three FBS teams with winning records - the same as the number of top ten teams the Irish have faced. Oklahoma has faced only four winning FBS teams (Tennessee, Texas Tech, West Virginia and Baylor). ND and USC are the only teams who've played more than one top ten teams.

As a point of comparison. ND has faced five FBS winning teams with an average score of 34-25.8. Alabama has faced eight FBS winning teams with an average score of 32.3-17.9. Going forward, ND will face one more, Alabama none. Our ACC conference schedule this year has let us down - two winning teams, four losing teams. Outside of the ACC games, the only other team with a losing record we've faced is UMass.

 

[gkIrish]

I'm not "refusing to acknowledge" anything. I'm just saying there is zero correlation between what transpired between TCU, OSU, and Minnesota last year and us, Oklahoma, and Texas this year. None. Zero. Nada.

Even if you are right about Minnesota being a non-factor, what about the comparison of OSU's loss to Virginia Tech at home and TCU's loss @ Baylor?

People act like the quality of loss is the biggest factor when it's clearly not.

 

[NDohio]

Not saying you are making it up but he had a series of tweets today that all said he doesn't know who gets in between Oklahoma and ND. Said the Stanford loss really hurt us. So that's definitely not his opinion anymore.

Sure, I get it.

And I don't know if it was a taped segment or they were talking to him live. Stanford may not have lost yet when it was taped.

I'll look for it when I get some time.

 

[koonja]

There is an argument for both OK and ND if they both win out. But if you were to put your reputation on the line, and you saw one team play on the road and play even with the #1 team, and another team have a few solid wins but also lose to a .500 team (that the other beat), I think it's obvious from a 'who do we know won't embarrass our decision' standpoint that you put ND in because you assume they are more proven against elite competition. OK will have some good wins (their top three probably slightly better than Stanford/USC/Navy), but at least with ND they saw how they play against the best of the best. OK will not play the best of the best (unless you count OK St), so I'd be worried putting them in.

I think when the wins are very comparable, you have to look at the common opponent (Texas) and the 1 loss for each team. I truly believe it's fair argument either way, but I also think the Irish get in over OK if we both win out.

 

[pkt77242]

Even if you are right about Minnesota being a non-factor, what about the comparison of OSU's loss to Virginia Tech at home and TCU's loss @ Baylor?

People act like the quality of loss is the biggest factor when it's clearly not.

I think that they place more emphasis on "quality" wins and to a certain extent the eye test.

 

[gkIrish]

There is an argument for both OK and ND if they both win out. But if you were to put your reputation on the line, and you saw one team play on the road and play even with the #1 team, and another team have a few solid wins but also lose to a .500 team (that the other beat), I think it's obvious from a 'who do we know won't embarrass our decision' standpoint that you put ND in because you assume they are more proven against elite competition. OK will have some good wins (their top three probably slightly better than Stanford/USC/Navy), but at least with ND they saw how they play against the best of the best. OK will not play the best of the best (unless you count OK St), so I'd be worried putting them in.

I think when the wins are very comparable, you have to look at the common opponent (Texas) and the 1 loss for each team. I truly believe it's fair argument either way, but I also think the Irish get in over OK if we both win out.

I think that's a fair way to look at it but you could also argue that Oklahoma beating 3 top 20 teams to end the season would make the committee feel comfortable with them because they will be playing the best football going into the playoffs. Presumably this was a big reason Ohio St. got in last year.

 

[koonja]

FYI - both Boykin and Dotson 'questionable' for Saturday vs. Oklahoma.

 

[ab2cmiller]

Right now it seems like most fans of other teams and fans of college football in general have more problems understanding how the committee is ranking Ohio St. third then how ND is ranked 4th, because it runs contrary to the committee's explanations on how they ranked Iowa, Oklahoma St. and others.

 

[koonja]

Right now it seems like most fans of other teams and fans of college football in general have more problems understanding how the committee is ranking Ohio St. third then how ND is ranked 4th, because it runs contrary to the committee's explanations on how they ranked Iowa, Oklahoma St. and others.

What's the problem with that? Just curious because I haven't seen that.

OSU is doing the same thing FSU did when it had unimpressive wins after a title year. FSU finished I believe 4th at 13-0.

 

[irishfan]

FYI - both Boykin and Dotson 'questionable' for Saturday vs. Oklahoma.

If they miss this game (or even if just Boykin misses), OU should smoke them. The committee better not give them full credit for taking down the JV version of TCU.

 

[gkIrish]

Right now it seems like most fans of other teams and fans of college football in general have more problems understanding how the committee is ranking Ohio St. third then how ND is ranked 4th, because it runs contrary to the committee's explanations on how they ranked Iowa, Oklahoma St. and others.

I do think it's absurd that Ohio St. is even ranked. They have played the most cupcake schedule of all the contenders to this point. Iowa should absolutely be ranked ahead of them. Oklahoma St. too. My personal top 10 at the moment based on resumes would be:

1. Clemson
2. Alabama
3. Iowa
4. Notre Dame
5. Oklahoma St.
6. Oklahoma
7. Ohio St.
8. Michigan St.
9. Florida
10. Houston

 

[IrishLax]

It's all going to be about how Navy, Stanford, and USC are treated by the committee. They're all legitimately top 10 teams on performance to this point, but none are treated as such.

I saw a stat that ND has beaten more teams with 7+ wins than Oklahoma, TCU, Baylor and Oklahoma State COMBINED at this point. That's the bottom line of a pro-ND argument... ND isn't playing FCS teams or garbage whereas the Big 12 has based their entire identity around playing no one besides themselves. No one can evaluate Oklahoma State or Baylor because they didn't play anybody. TCU went out of conference... and at full strength looked bad against Minnesota. Oklahoma went out of conference... and needed a miracle to beat an OK Tennessee. There is no evidence that the Big 12 is any good, because they have no wins outside of themselves.

There is also a very legitimate anti-ND argument, but I don't feel like making that.

 

[NDWorld247]

I'd love to watch the OK-Texas game to see how the **** they lost. Saturday night was the first OK game I've watched this season and they certainly passed the eye test.

 

[irishfanjho15]

What's the problem with that? Just curious because I haven't seen that.

OSU is doing the same thing FSU did when it had unimpressive wins after a title year. FSU finished I believe 4th at 13-0.

Koon,

I think that this is the problem. Ohio State has done nothing but be the defending champ and win all their games against 'not very good competition'. Not to mention they have looked bad against a couple bad teams (i.e. NIU and IU specifically). They have been underwhelming considering their talent, much the same as we judged FSU last season. It's fair and it's not. Bottom line is OSU are one of, if not, the most talented team in the country. The eye test, their defense, the fact they haven't lost, and their overall talent is keeping them in top four. Unlike Okie State and Iowa they have 'earned' this status by winning 20+ games in a row. Fair or not, they are the kings of CFB at this time and until they lose they won't lose that perch just as FSU before them. All my opinion of course.

 

[T Town Tommy]

It's all going to be about how Navy, Stanford, and USC are treated by the committee. They're all legitimately top 10 teams on performance to this point, but none are treated as such.

I saw a stat that ND has beaten more teams with 7+ wins than Oklahoma, TCU, Baylor and Oklahoma State COMBINED at this point. That's the bottom line of a pro-ND argument... ND isn't playing FCS teams or garbage whereas the Big 12 has based their entire identity around playing no one besides themselves. No one can evaluate Oklahoma State or Baylor because they didn't play anybody. TCU went out of conference... and at full strength looked bad against Minnesota. Oklahoma went out of conference... and needed a miracle to beat an OK Tennessee. There is no evidence that the Big 12 is any good, because they have no wins outside of themselves.

There is also a very legitimate anti-ND argument, but I don't feel like making that.

Stanford's loss Saturday really hurt the Irish IMO. Couple that with their loss to NW and they shouldn't be considered top 10 material. USC has top 10 talent... just not top 10 results. Navy is a nice team but their competition hurts them from being considered.

My take is that the Irish have to beat Stanford and hope TCU beats Oklahoma and Oklahoma beats the Pokies. It will be a nail biter if things stay status quo and we have an 11-1 Irish and an 11-1 Oklahoma. While the Texas games could be debated, I do think the late season schedule Oklahoma plays may give them the momentum with the committee. That, plus the Big 12 being left out last year, will probably come in to play at some point.

 

[koonja]

Has the committee ever defined if they're truly picking based on who they think is best vs. who is most deserving based on resume? Even so, I feel like they have to go by the latter regardless of what they say they're doing.

 

[GoIrish41]

Koon,

I think that this is the problem. Ohio State has done nothing but be the defending champ and win all their games against 'not very good competition'. Not to mention they have looked bad against a couple bad teams (i.e. NIU and IU specifically). They have been underwhelming considering their talent, much the same as we judged FSU last season. It's fair and it's not. Bottom line is OSU are one of, if not, the most talented team in the country. The eye test, their defense, the fact they haven't lost, and their overall talent is keeping them in top four. Unlike Okie State and Iowa they have 'earned' this status by winning 20+ games in a row. Fair or not, they are the kings of CFB at this time and until they lose they won't lose that perch just as FSU before them. All my opinion of course.

I'll be surprised if OSU makes it through the next two weeks without a loss on their record.

 

[wizards8507]

Has the committee ever defined if they're truly picking based on who they think is best vs. who is most deserving based on resume? Even so, I feel like they have to go by the latter regardless of what they say they're doing.

It's based on resume unless one team with a less-than-top-four resume is "unequivocally one of the best four teams in the country."

Ranking football teams is an art, not a science. Football is popular in some measure because the outcome of a game between reasonably matched teams is so often decided by emotional commitment, momentum, injuries and the “unexpected bounce of the ball.” In any ranking system, perfection or consensus is not possible and the physical impact of the game on student athletes prevents elaborate playoff systems of multiple games. For purposes of any four team playoff, the process will inevitably need to select the four best teams from among several with legitimate claims to participate.

Proposed Selection Process:
Establish a committee that will be instructed to place an emphasis on winning conference championships, strength of schedule and head-to-head competition when comparing teams with similar records and pedigree (treat final determination like a tie-breaker; apply specific guidelines).

The criteria to be provided to the selection committee must be aligned with the ideals of the commissioners, presidents, athletic directors and coaches to honor regular season success while at the same time providing enough flexibility and discretion to select a non-champion or independent under circumstances where that particular non-champion or independent is unequivocally one of the four best teams in the country.

Full text here: College Football Playoff

 

[gkIrish]

I'll be surprised if OSU makes it through the next two weeks without a loss on their record.

Really? I don't have much respect for either Michigan State or "should be 6-4 if teams didn't go out of their way to do the stupidest things" Michigan

 

[wizards8507]

Really? I don't have much respect for either Michigan State or "should be 6-4 if teams didn't go out of their way to do the stupidest things" Michigan

But the fullbacks tho. Think of the fullbacks.

 

[koonja]

So who to root for this week:

MSU over OSU. Right?

Purdue over Iowa

VT over UNC

PSU over Michigan (then pray Michigan beats OSU somehow)

Florida Atlantic (LOL) over Florida - just make it a close game

Clemson over Wake Forest

TCU over Oklahoma

Temple over Memphis

Missouri over Tennessee (to make OK's game look less impressive)

Stanford over Cal

Baylor over OK State

Navy over Tulsa

USC over Oregon

Only a couple of games that directly and immediately help ND, but overall, an extremely exciting weekend in regards to ND's playoff chances.

 

[ickythump1225]

Even if you are right about Minnesota being a non-factor, what about the comparison of OSU's loss to Virginia Tech at home and TCU's loss @ Baylor?

People act like the quality of loss is the biggest factor when it's clearly not.

Well I'm not one of those people and we're not #4 right now because we have a "quality loss." Our body of work is good enough, and will be good enough by the end of year, that I feel confident that if we handle our business we can reasonably assured of getting in.

Is it a stone cold lock? No, but that's what happens when you lose a game, you lose control of your own fate (unless you're Alabama). I mean it is tiring dealing with the endless pessimism on this board, and this isn't directed at you GK because I actually like a lot of you what you contribute in your less pessimistic moments.

The same people crying now about how the committee is gearing up to leave us out in the cold never imagined we'd open up the rankings at #5 and be at #4 right now. These same people thought we'd be anywhere form 8-12 right now hoping for a lot of chaos to help us slip through the backdoor like thieves in the night. The committee clearly likes us more than our own fanbase and respects our body of work far more than the average ND fan apparently. It just gets tiring with all of the over-analyzing and dissecting of every single tweet, thought, and opinion that gets thrown out there.

No disrespect to Kirk Herbstreit, but who the f**k is he and what does opinion count towards as far as the playoffs are concerned? No more than mine or yours. He's not on the committee and his opinion counts for dick in that regard. Jeff Long, the chairmen of the committee, said the top 4 was "solid" and there was no debate over them last week which means a hell of a lot more than Kirks' Twitter vomit. Just last week Kirk said we were a lock to get in if we won out and now he's on Oklahoma's jock. He's a prisoner of the moment with everyone else.

Further more all of this constant looking a gift horse in the mouth is ruining the f**king moment man. Jeez I can't even enjoy being the #4 team in the nation because everyone is running around like the house is on fire, you'd think we had 3 losses. I'm not saying to think we're a 100% lock to get in, but my god some of you need to take a xanax and chill. The only game we've lost in the past 11 months is a 2 point game in a hurricane to the #1 team in the country on the road and we're all scared and down on the program. "Oh we didn't smoke Wake by enough" or "oh this random talking head tweeted that Oklahoma and Ok. State are both going to make it in over us, why is ND so cursed?" is what this board is filled with, it's worse than Domer Domain over here sometimes. Our last 11 games include wins over LSU, Navy, USC, Temple, and Pitt. We've played a tough schedule, the 2nd toughest in the top 10. But I would swear that some of you buy into the anti-ND talking point that we don't play anybody. Don't fret about the Big 12 finally playing some decent competition, they're just playing catch up to us anyway.

Everyone's worried we'll get jumped but those people didn't expect to be in this position anyway. Hell I wasn't expecting to be here right now. It's a gift that has fallen out of the heavens as far I am concerned and I'm not going to kill the buzz worrying about what might happen. At 11-1 it is very probable that we will get in and that is all we can ask for really.

 

[ickythump1225]

Stanford's loss Saturday really hurt the Irish IMO. Couple that with their loss to NW and they shouldn't be considered top 10 material. USC has top 10 talent... just not top 10 results. Navy is a nice team but their competition hurts them from being considered.

My take is that the Irish have to beat Stanford and hope TCU beats Oklahoma and Oklahoma beats the Pokies. It will be a nail biter if things stay status quo and we have an 11-1 Irish and an 11-1 Oklahoma. While the Texas games could be debated, I do think the late season schedule Oklahoma plays may give them the momentum with the committee. That, plus the Big 12 being left out last year, will probably come in to play at some point.

I hope the committee is smart enough to base their final rankings on the totality of the season and not just the incestuous end of the season schedule for the Big 12. The Big 12 deciding not to play pop warner teams now means their schedules are just now catching up to ours.