Brian Kelly Revisited (RIP BOZO)

[Irish Insanity]

Sorry I don't believe in NorthWestern and most Pac12 teams. Just win and everything will take care of itself.

Well, the last time we played NW or the PAC 12, we got smoked. Not that I don't agree with your comment. Just sayin

 

[ACamp1900]

I kind of fell into that boat this weekend. Looking at our opening ACC schedule we really didn't get any favors from the conference in regards to scheduling. FSU on the road in year 1? Clemson on the road in year 2? Next year is more favorable with Miami and VT at home, and the only possibly tough matchup is NC away in 2017, but damn...rough way to start with probably the two best ACC teams (Depending on GT in a given year) on the road in back to back years. On top of that I haven't been entirely happy with the officiating in ACC games, feels like the zebras prefer true ACC teams over us (Fortunately replay has saved us a few times like that bogus catch that was overturned Saturday).

That said, if we joined the ACC there would be little chance any other conferences would be able to lure an ACC team away at that point. The ACC could enter a more favorable position for TV deals which would be better for everyone. We get a clearer path to the playoffs if we navigate our way to the ACC championship. Downside? Less flexibility with the scheduling and we may or may not have to drop the USC/Stanford series although it's not impossible. It would be nice to keep a series with Texas or TA&M fairly regularly for recruiting purposes, but that would also be more difficult. The ACC membership would allow us to keep a stronger foothold in the south though.

I enjoy the team just fine. I enjoy analyzing everything about the team, good and bad. Lots of people like to do that. If you can't listen to "negative" things that's a problem with you, not with me.

And actually my opinion matters at least as much as my vote matters. I pay a decent amount of money every year to buy tickets to games. I buy lots of merchandise and watch a lot of ND on television. If I decide not to do that anymore that's at least as influential as my vote for President.

Irish Envy Love

Now let me welcome everybody to Irish Envy
The board that’s only down with a positive entry,
The forums won’t hit your fandom like a slug to your chest
Despite how often you see ND in a mess

We in that board where the bomb ass posts be,
That place where you never find a negative nancy,
And mods be, on a mission for that post
That inflates the teams identity da most

I’ve been on this board for ten years watching posters
Giving the realists the roasters
Now 2015 and they flag me a nag me
Blaming me like I robbed Our Lady

It’s all good from Lep Lounge to the game
Your post is the bomb if your post isn’t lame
Throw up a rep is you feel the same way
Camp puttin it down for Irish Envay

 

[gkIrish]

Irish Envy Love

Now let me welcome everybody to Irish Envy
The board that’s only down with a positive entry,
The forums won’t hit your fandom like a slug to your chest
Despite how often you see ND in a mess

We in that board where the bomb ass posts be,
That place where you never find a negative nancy,
And mods be, on a mission for that post
That inflates the teams identity da most

I’ve been on this board for ten years watching posters
Giving the realists the roasters
Now 2015 and they flag me a nag me
Blaming me like I robbed Our Lady

It’s good from Lep Lounge to the game
Your post is the bomb if your post isn’t lame
Throw up a rep is you feel the same way
Camp puttin it down for Irish Envay

Dude....

Someone gif that man with a standing O. Can't do it from work.

I read that like I would rap Ice Ice Baby and it was glorious.

 

[Whiskeyjack]

Reposting this from the post-Clemson thread, since it's more relevant here:

Here's a Rivals article ($) by Brian Fremeau explaining that the Clemson game is the 10th loss under Kelly in which the point value of Irish TOs exceeded the margin of victory. The tweet promoting it indicates that might be some sort of record.

Kelly's record for us right now is 49-21 (70%). Reverse the turn-over woes, and that improves to 59-11 (84%); a win rate that would compare favorably to Parseghian, Leahy and Rockne. Ugh.

 

[IrishLax]

Reposting this from the post-Clemson thread, since it's more relevant here:

He is a cursed man. From Declan Sullivan to Lennay Kekua to "Frozen Five" to injuries to turnovers... it's wild to think how different his tenure could've been if he had gotten some breaks.

 

[NDohio]

Irish Envy Love

Now let me welcome everybody to Irish Envy
The board that’s only down with a positive entry,
The forums won’t hit your fandom like a slug to your chest
Despite how often you see ND in a mess

We in that board where the bomb ass posts be,
That place where you never find a negative nancy,
And mods be, on a mission for that post
That inflates the teams identity da most

I’ve been on this board for ten years watching posters
Giving the realists the roasters
Now 2015 and they flag me a nag me
Blaming me like I robbed Our Lady

It’s all good from Lep Lounge to the game
Your post is the bomb if your post isn’t lame
Throw up a rep is you feel the same way
Camp puttin it down for Irish Envay

REPS!!!

 

[gkIrish]

Reposting this from the post-Clemson thread, since it's more relevant here:

The thing is his resume is boosted by a significant amount due to the 2012 season. If you believe that 2012 was an outlier (something we have debated a lot in this thread) then stats like that carry a lot less weight.

No doubt BK has suffered some bad luck but it shouldn't be an excuse.

 

[Cackalacky]

Irish Envy Love

Now let me welcome everybody to Irish Envy
The board that’s only down with a positive entry,
The forums won’t hit your fandom like a slug to your chest
Despite how often you see ND in a mess

We in that board where the bomb ass posts be,
That place where you never find a negative nancy,
And mods be, on a mission for that post
That inflates the teams identity da most

I’ve been on this board for ten years watching posters
Giving the realists the roasters
Now 2015 and they flag me a nag me
Blaming me like I robbed Our Lady

It’s all good from Lep Lounge to the game
Your post is the bomb if your post isn’t lame
Throw up a rep is you feel the same way
Camp puttin it down for Irish Envay

I luh dat playa!

 

[koonja]

GK did you ever come up with your list of replacement candidates? Not trolling, JW.

 

[Whiskeyjack]

The thing is his resume is boosted by a significant amount due to the 2012 season. If you believe that 2012 was an outlier (something we have debated a lot in this thread) then stats like that carry a lot less weight.

No doubt BK has suffered some bad luck but it shouldn't be an excuse.

Most of the advanced statistical models, including Phil Steele's and Football Outsiders, track Turnover Margin as a indicator of luck. Teams with a strong positive Turnover Margin are viewed as having benefited from good fortune, and should be expected to regress toward the mean (and vice versa).

Losing 10 games over the course of 5.5 seasons solely due to the TO Margin is absurdly unlucky. I don't have a Rivals subscription, but I assume that's a massive statistical outlier. I don't have enough evidence to definitively state: "Kelly would be counted among the greatest NDFB coaches ever but for some ridiculously bad luck," but at first blush it definitely tends to vindicate Kelly more than it indicts him.

I'm as frustrated as anyone else. If you've got evidence that our rash of joint and ligament injuries is the result of Longo's S&C program, please present it. If you've got evidence that indicates our TO Margin is the result of some flaw in Kelly's scheme or coaching methods, I'm all ears. But during his tenure, we've only had one year where we remained healthy and didn't suffer from terrible TO luck; and we played for a title that year.

"Kelly must go because he's cursed"? That's a defensible argument. But "Kelly must go because he's not good enough"? I don't see it. And I'm still not convinced a new hire could do better.

 

[gkIrish]

GK did you ever come up with your list of replacement candidates? Not trolling, JW.

I'm honestly too busy to do all the research and frankly the amount of crap I get in this thread has destroyed any desire to put an honest effort in but my list would be something like:

DO WANT (and would probably take the job):
Kyle Whittingham (my absolute #1)
Gary Patterson
Tom Herman
Steve Addazio

WOULD WANT (but wouldn't take the job)
Pat Fitzgerald
Jim McElwain

WOULD WANT (if I could be convinced they could handle recruiting under academic requirements of ND)
Chip Kelly
Kevin Sumlin

WOULD WANT (but they are probably too old)
David Cutcliffe

KEEP AN EYE ON
Matt Campbell
Sonny Dykes (obviously had a couple horrific seasons but let's see what he does with his own guys)
Matt Rhule

 

[Irish Insanity]

Irish Envy Love

Now let me welcome everybody to Irish Envy
The board that’s only down with a positive entry,
The forums won’t hit your fandom like a slug to your chest
Despite how often you see ND in a mess

We in that board where the bomb ass posts be,
That place where you never find a negative nancy,
And mods be, on a mission for that post
That inflates the teams identity da most

I’ve been on this board for ten years watching posters
Giving the realists the roasters
Now 2015 and they flag me a nag me
Blaming me like I robbed Our Lady

It’s all good from Lep Lounge to the game
Your post is the bomb if your post isn’t lame
Throw up a rep is you feel the same way
Camp puttin it down for Irish Envay

Word

 

[gkIrish]

Most of the advanced statistical models, including Phil Steele's and Football Outsiders, track Turnover Margin as a indicator of luck. Teams with a strong positive Turnover Margin are viewed as having benefited from good fortune, and should be expected to regress toward the mean (and vice versa).

Losing 10 games over the course of 5.5 seasons solely due to the TO Margin is absurdly unlucky. I don't have a Rivals subscription, but I assume that's a massive statistical outlier. I don't have enough evidence to definitively state: "Kelly would be counted among the greatest NDFB coaches ever but for some ridiculously bad luck," but at first blush it definitely tends to vindicate Kelly more than it indicts him.

I'm as frustrated as anyone else. If you've got evidence that our rash of joint and ligament injuries is the result of Longo's S&C program, please present it. If you've got evidence that indicates our TO Margin is the result of some flaw in Kelly's scheme or coaching methods, I'm all ears. But during his tenure, we've only had one year where we remained healthy and didn't suffer from terrible TO luck; and we played for a title that year.

"Kelly must go because he's cursed"? That's a defensible argument. But "Kelly must go because he's not good enough"? I don't see it. And I'm still not convinced a new hire could do better.

First of all that 84% they claim BK would have may be valuable but as far as I can tell they aren't doing that analysis for all the other head coaches. Does that model go back and analyze every game Lou or Faust coached? Lou Holtz won 76% of his games. What would his % be if you did the same analysis?

I just think "bad luck" is the ultimate cop out argument. "Kelly could be one of the greatest coaches if not for...." I guarantee you there's a model out there that would suggest Lou Holtz could have won a lot more games than he did.

For example, if you compare the strength of schedules of the Holtz era and the BK era, it's probably not even close. If you adjust for strength of schedule, I bet Holtz blows BK out of the water.

Another model someone could use: Take away the best and worst seasons of all the head coaches when computing winning percentage. BK would suffer in that model too. You can't cite a model that suggests BK is a better head coach than Lou Holtz and expect that to convince me BK is better. He's not.

 

[Guest]

Most of the advanced statistical models, including Phil Steele's and Football Outsiders, track Turnover Margin as a indicator of luck. Teams with a strong positive Turnover Margin are viewed as having benefited from good fortune, and should be expected to regress toward the mean (and vice versa).

Losing 10 games over the course of 5.5 seasons solely due to the TO Margin is absurdly unlucky. I don't have a Rivals subscription, but I assume that's a massive statistical outlier. I don't have enough evidence to definitively state: "Kelly would be counted among the greatest NDFB coaches ever but for some ridiculously bad luck," but at first blush it definitely tends to vindicate Kelly more than it indicts him.

I'm as frustrated as anyone else. If you've got evidence that our rash of joint and ligament injuries is the result of Longo's S&C program, please present it. If you've got evidence that indicates our TO Margin is the result of some flaw in Kelly's scheme or coaching methods, I'm all ears. But during his tenure, we've only had one year where we remained healthy and didn't suffer from terrible TO luck; and we played for a title that year.

"Kelly must go because he's cursed"? That's a defensible argument. But "Kelly must go because he's not good enough"? I don't see it. And I'm still not convinced a new hire could do better.

This is a post that makes some exceptional points. Thanks for it. How much is on the coach and how much are factors are beyond his, or his coaching org's, control? I am not sure if the public in general will care, but I think we as fans should consider this when discussing how effective Kelly is.

 

[irishfan]

I'm honestly too busy to do all the research and frankly the amount of crap I get in this thread has destroyed any desire to put an honest effort in but my list would be something like:

DO WANT (and would probably take the job):
Kyle Whittingham (my absolute #1)
Gary Patterson
Tom Herman
Steve Addazio

WOULD WANT (but wouldn't take the job)
Pat Fitzgerald
Jim McElwain

WOULD WANT (if I could be convinced they could handle recruiting under academic requirements of ND)
Chip Kelly
Kevin Sumlin

WOULD WANT (but they are probably too old)
David Cutcliffe

KEEP AN EYE ON
Matt Campbell
Sonny Dykes (obviously had a couple horrific seasons but let's see what he does with his own guys)
Matt Rhule

I haven't followed this thread as closely as others have. Is this a list of coaches you would prefer over BK? Or just people if he leaves after the season? Cause I don't think I could buy any Addazio>Kelly argument.

 

[Guest]

First of all that 84% they claim BK would have may be valuable but as far as I can tell they aren't doing that analysis for all the other head coaches. Does that model go back and analyze every game Lou or Faust coached? Lou Holtz won 76% of his games. What would his % be if you did the same analysis?

I just think "bad luck" is the ultimate cop out argument. "Kelly could be one of the greatest coaches if not for...." I guarantee you there's a model out there that would suggest Lou Holtz could have won a lot more games than he did.

For example, if you compare the strength of schedules of the Holtz era and the BK era, it's probably not even close. If you adjust for strength of schedule, I bet Holtz blows BK out of the water.

Another model someone could use: Take away the best and worst seasons of all the head coaches when computing winning percentage. BK would suffer in that model too. You can't cite a model that suggests BK is a better head coach than Lou Holtz and expect that to convince me BK is better. He's not.

Your second point is valid but the counter point is the parity now seen in college athletics. There are many more attractive choices for athletes now that will still allow them to compete for a conference championship, or an NFL job or tryout. ND probably was a more singular destination for elite talent in that time than it is now.

 

[koonja]

I'm honestly too busy to do all the research and frankly the amount of crap I get in this thread has destroyed any desire to put an honest effort in but my list would be something like:

DO WANT (and would probably take the job):
Kyle Whittingham (my absolute #1)
Gary Patterson
Tom Herman
Steve Addazio

WOULD WANT (but wouldn't take the job)
Pat Fitzgerald
Jim McElwain

WOULD WANT (if I could be convinced they could handle recruiting under academic requirements of ND)
Chip Kelly
Kevin Sumlin

WOULD WANT (but they are probably too old)
David Cutcliffe

KEEP AN EYE ON
Matt Campbell
Sonny Dykes (obviously had a couple horrific seasons but let's see what he does with his own guys)
Matt Rhule

No Sanford? JW.

 

[Whiskeyjack]

First of all that 84% they claim BK would have may be valuable but as far as I can tell they aren't doing that analysis for all the other head coaches. Does that model go back and analyze every game Lou or Faust coached? Lou Holtz won 76% of his games. What would his % be if you did the same analysis?

I admitted that I don't have enough evidence to make that case definitively. But I know that TO Margin is widely considered an indicator of luck in college football; and I assume that losing 10 games out of 70 (14%!) solely due to TO Margin is an extreme statistical outlier. Add that to all the other uncontrollable negatives that have occurred during Kelly's tenure (Sullivan, Seeburg, Kekua, etc.) and I infer that he's been remarkably unlucky.

Does that mean Swarbrick should look elsewhere? Maybe. But you haven't presented a case that Kelly himself is somehow deficient. All we've gotten from you is hand-waving about how "the buck stops at his desk". The data indicates that with something approaching average injury and TO luck, Kelly's win-rate would be competitive with the best to have ever coached ND. As someone who suffered through the hirings of O'Leary, Willingham and Weis as a student, forgive me for being unwilling to roll the dice on someone new.

 

[ACamp1900]

As someone who suffered through the hirings of Faust, Willingham and Weis as a student, forgive me for being unwilling to roll the dice on someone new.

Damn son, it took you forever to get that degree...

 

[SoIll]

I'm honestly too busy to do all the research and frankly the amount of crap I get in this thread has destroyed any desire to put an honest effort in but my list would be something like:

DO WANT (and would probably take the job):
Kyle Whittingham (my absolute #1)
Gary Patterson
Tom Herman
Steve Addazio

WOULD WANT (but wouldn't take the job)
Pat Fitzgerald
Jim McElwain

WOULD WANT (if I could be convinced they could handle recruiting under academic requirements of ND)
Chip Kelly
Kevin Sumlin

WOULD WANT (but they are probably too old)
David Cutcliffe

KEEP AN EYE ON
Matt Campbell
Sonny Dykes (obviously had a couple horrific seasons but let's see what he does with his own guys)
Matt Rhule

3 maybe 4 of this guys are better coaches than Kelly.

 

[Whiskeyjack]

Damn son, it took you forever to get that degree...

Gah. O'Leary and Faust are both Irish names...

 

[ACamp1900]

Not gonna lie, I had to google Matt Campbell...

 

[SoIll]

Could you imagine the players that P.J. Fleck could recruit here?

Though I am not sure any Mid-level program coach is ready for ND

 

[gkIrish]

I haven't followed this thread as closely as others have. Is this a list of coaches you would prefer over BK? Or just people if he leaves after the season? Cause I don't think I could buy any Addazio>Kelly argument.

3 maybe 4 of this guys are better coaches than Kelly.

That isn't a list of coaches that we know are better than BK. I agree that there are only 3-4 guys on the list that I can say for sure are better coaches. You don't fire someone only if you know for a fact that there is a better alternative. CEOs get fired all the time. No one knows for sure whether the replacement will be better.

Assuming BK loses 4 games again this year, that list is the guys I would take a chance on that I think could be better. I don't know for sure, but I'm not scared of trying.

No Sanford? JW.

No. I want head coaching experience.

 

[gkIrish]

I admitted that I don't have enough evidence to make that case definitively. But I know that TO Margin is widely considered an indicator of luck in college football; and I assume that losing 10 games out of 70 (14%!) solely due to TO Margin is an extreme statistical outlier. Add that to all the other uncontrollable negatives that have occurred during Kelly's tenure (Sullivan, Seeburg, Kekua, etc.) and I infer that he's been remarkably unlucky.

Does that mean Swarbrick should look elsewhere? Maybe. But you haven't presented a case that Kelly himself is somehow deficient. All we've gotten from you is hand-waving about how "the buck stops at his desk". The data indicates that with something approaching average injury and TO luck, Kelly's win-rate would be competitive with the best to have ever coached ND. As someone who suffered through the hirings of O'Leary, Willingham and Weis as a student, forgive me for being unwilling to roll the dice on someone new.

Okay let's break this down even more. Your are relying on a model that claims bad luck is the cause of just about HALF of Notre Dame's losses in Brian Kelly's tenure. How does the model make that assertion. Seems to me that either (a) the model identified 10 individual games that we lost due to bad luck or (b) the model takes total bad luck into account and averages it out over all the games. In other words, the Clemson game may account for about 3 games out of those projected ten.

Both (a) and (b) are silly. If (a), go ahead and name the 10 games. I'll wait. If (b) that tells me nothing because if 2-3 games (say Clemson, Oklahoma, and USF) account for a huge portion of the projection, that just means those 3 games skewed the entire model.

Furthermore, if you want to support that model, then you are de facto taking the stance that Brian Kelly is a better coach than Lou Holtz. That model says Brian Kelly should have won 84% of his games. Lou Holtz won ~77% of his games at ND. If that's the stance you want to take, go for it.

 

[connor_in]

Let's just hire Saban and Urban can be OC and Stoops DC

 

[Section20Row27]

Damn son, it took you forever to get that degree...

Now that's funny sh*t...

 

[Section20Row27]

Gah. O'Leary and Faust are both Irish names...

Was O'Leary technically hired? Maybe Acamp is on to something...

 

[stlnd01]

That isn't a list of coaches that we know are better than BK. I agree that there are only 3-4 guys on the list that I can say for sure are better coaches. You don't fire someone only if you know for a fact that there is a better alternative. CEOs get fired all the time. No one knows for sure whether the replacement will be better.

In practice, though, that is what you're saying. Lots of CEOs hang on to their jobs for a long, long time despite being generally mediocre. Kelly's not mediocre. He's certainly not bad. He may or may not be The Guy who takes Notre Dame to a championship, but he's built the program to a level where that's something we can, at least, legitimately aspire to. (to say nothing of being very skilled at the many extracurricular requirements of the job). You wouldn't have said that for most of the last 20 years, including the tail end of the Holtz regime.
If you're going to fire him, and hit the reset button on the entire program (because that's what a coaching change is in college football) you'd best make damn sure whoever you hire is capable of building on what he's developed. Not just somebody you "think could" be better. Beyond Whittingham, Chip Kelly and maybe Patterson, I'm not sure who on your list that would be.

 

[Sherm Sticky]

He is a cursed man. From Declan Sullivan to Lennay Kekua to "Frozen Five" to injuries to turnovers... it's wild to think how different his tenure could've been if he had gotten some breaks.

How about Matt James, Will Mahone, Aaron Lynch, etc.


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