2016 Presidential Horse Race

2016 Presidential Horse Race


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C

Cackalacky

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I understand your thinking now. If I want to keep all the cookies to myself, I should build a fence around the cookie jar and stand guard over it 24 hours per day. Heaven help any child who gets hungry and tries to get a cookie. After I shoot a few of my children, the rest of them will never want a cookie again.

Now, because you own, you possess.
You have something that they can take.
You remember how it was when you had nothing.
You looked at the ones who had what you wanted
And you felt strong in your need.
Brave in your limited surroundings.
Righteous in your desires for something different.
Contemptuous of those who had exactly what you wanted.
You hated them because they looked weak and slightly scared.
You circled the water hole and thought about closing in.

Now you have it you feel weak in your power to keep it.
You feel desperate to make them see that you won't let them take it away.
Because it's yours.
You never had to justify yourself and your possessions before.
I earned this.
I worked hard for what I've got.
I paid my dues.
I deserve this.
You say these things to yourself as the animals circle and wait.
Shake your fists at the Hyenas.
Chase them away from your water hole.
Justify.
See them all differently...
Now you see that they all want something.
They want exactly what you've got.
You get some juice.
Human becomes prey.
Human gets scared.
Figure out that you have to become hard to keep it yours.
You have to be cruel.
You have to kill the moth just for looking.
Leave the bodies by the water hole so the rest will see.
Hang spent bullet cases from fishing line outside
All the windows of your house.
Put up signs.
Please break in.
I would love the opportunity to kill you legally.

Let the fear turn into desperate anger.
Start seeing the differences in people.
They all start looking suspicious.
They all want.
The need never stops.
Out there, someone is always needing.
Always hungry.
Always looking at you.
Checking your eyes for weakness.
Zeroing in on the vein in your neck.
As they circle the water hole.
And close in.
-Delicate Tendrils
Henry Rollins
 

phgreek

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A double steel fence with a 25-year life for 700 miles has been estimated to cost $49-billion. Not including security personnel, equipment, maintenance costs etc.


Study: Price for border fence up to $49 billion Study says fence cost could reach $49 billion / Lawmakers' estimate falls far short of total, research service says - SFGate

Maybe this isn't your approach to things, but it seems the Democrat narrative lately contains false choices of various spots so to speak. This doesn't even allude to a choice....or leaves one to think the status quo is free.

Not a huge fence guy, but at the same time the alternative cost to doing nothing is pretty damned salty, and illegal. Keep in mind the staus quo brings us costs over the lifetime of each person here illegally, and any of their offspring whom we end up paying for to some degree. As well we are headed for legal crisis pitting local law enforcement against the Federal government...not at all "cheap".

I get the Fence is not a solution from a logisitics/effectiveness perspective...by itself. But I don't buy the cost issue as a factor...at all.
 
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Cackalacky

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Maybe this isn't your approach to things, but it seems the Democrat narrative lately contains false choices of various spots so to speak. This doesn't even allude to a choice....or leaves one to think the status quo is free.

Not a huge fence guy, but at the same time the alternative cost to doing nothing is pretty damned salty, and illegal. Keep in mind the staus quo brings us costs over the lifetime of each person here illegally, and any of their offspring whom we end up paying for to some degree. As well we are headed for legal crisis pitting local law enforcement against the Federal government...not at all "cheap".

I get the Fence is not a solution from a logisitics/effectiveness perspective...by itself. But I don't buy the cost issue as a factor...at all.

No one is saying to not do anything. I don't think that is the case. But not building the wall /= doing nothing. And I definitely am not abdicating doing nothing. Surveillance, drones, regular patrols seem to work well in some areas and walls work in others. My whole point with The Great White Shart was that a fully operational 2000-mile long monolithic fence not only would be a massive money pit but would also easily become a political icon opposite what this country has always supposed to be and it wouldn't be any more effective than what we have now.

Personally I think the border should be one big American Ninja Warrior level and should be televised daily.
 
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Redbar

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Now, because you own, you possess.
You have something that they can take.
You remember how it was when you had nothing.
You looked at the ones who had what you wanted
And you felt strong in your need.
Brave in your limited surroundings.
Righteous in your desires for something different.
Contemptuous of those who had exactly what you wanted.
You hated them because they looked weak and slightly scared.
You circled the water hole and thought about closing in.

Now you have it you feel weak in your power to keep it.
You feel desperate to make them see that you won't let them take it away.
Because it's yours.
You never had to justify yourself and your possessions before.
I earned this.
I worked hard for what I've got.
I paid my dues.
I deserve this.
You say these things to yourself as the animals circle and wait.
Shake your fists at the Hyenas.
Chase them away from your water hole.
Justify.
See them all differently...
Now you see that they all want something.
They want exactly what you've got.
You get some juice.
Human becomes prey.
Human gets scared.
Figure out that you have to become hard to keep it yours.
You have to be cruel.
You have to kill the moth just for looking.
Leave the bodies by the water hole so the rest will see.
Hang spent bullet cases from fishing line outside
All the windows of your house.
Put up signs.
Please break in.
I would love the opportunity to kill you legally.

Let the fear turn into desperate anger.
Start seeing the differences in people.
They all start looking suspicious.
They all want.
The need never stops.
Out there, someone is always needing.
Always hungry.
Always looking at you.
Checking your eyes for weakness.
Zeroing in on the vein in your neck.
As they circle the water hole.
And close in.
-Delicate Tendrils
Henry Rollins

This regrettably could be copied and pasted as an absolutely insightful and pertinent response to far too many posts in far too many threads.

Fear is a helluva drug!
 

phgreek

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No one is saying to not do anything. I don't think that is the case. But not building the wall /= doing nothing. And I definitely am not abdicating doing nothing. Surveillance, drones, regular patrols seem to work well in some areas and walls work in others. My whole point with The Great White Shart was that a fully operational 2000-mile long monolithic fence not only would be a massive money pit but would also easily become a political icon opposite what this country has always supposed to be and it wouldn't be any more effective than what we have now.

Personally I think the border should be one big American Ninja Warrior level and should be televised daily.

Ok...case of one post context I guess. I'm a little touchy about cost concerns regarding border integrity/protection when everything you can think to deploy comes to about one year of Federal/state/local costs associated with illegals already here. Seems we are at a point where virtually no expenditure at the border would fail to yield an ROI.
 

phgreek

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Hamilton Project Policy Paper
This was written in 2010. It should be noted that since this was written the illegal immigrant population has stabilized over the last five years.

ok...illegal immigrants and immigrants are not the same thing. Then, in the illegal category,
those overstaying educational visas are not the same as unskilled illegal immigrants. If the study wanted to share data of any value, it would have at least made those distinctions.
 

BGIF

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Post-debate polls finds Trump still leading pack, Carly Fiorina winner of debates | MSNBC

Following Thursday’s Republican debates, an overnight poll shows Donald Trump maintaining his edge over the crowded field of Republican candidates. The survey also finds a majority of Trump supporters say they would vote for him as an independent candidate for president, in the event he does not win the Republican nomination.

The NBC News online poll conducted by SurveyMonkey over Friday night and into Saturday showed possible movement among the candidates following the debates, as well as Republican primary voters declaring Carly Fiorina the overall debate winner.

Donald Trump has the support of 23% of Republican primary voters following the debate, which had the highest viewership ever for a primary debate, with 24 million watchers. The poll was in the field for only a 24-hour period, during which Mr. Trump continued to make more headlines for his comments about Fox News moderator Megyn Kelly, which got him disinvited from speaking at a gathering of conservatives in Atlanta.

Ted Cruz and Carly Fiorina were the candidates with the most gains in support, 7 points and 6 points respectively, but there was no real change among most candidates given an error estimate of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points.

Among Trump supporters, a majority – 54% – said they would vote for him for president as an independent candidate, even if he does not win the Republican nomination. During the Republican debate, Trump was met with both boos and cheers from the crowd as he said he would not rule out running as an independent if he didn’t get the Republican nod. About 1 in 5 Trump supporters said they would support the eventual Republican candidate, while about the same number said it would depend.

Among Republican and Republican-leaning voters who watched either of the debates or followed coverage of the debates in the news, Carly Fiorina emerged as the clear winner. Twenty-two percent said Fiorina won or had the best performance in the debate, followed by 18% who said Trump had the best performance. However, another 29% said Trump did the worst in the debate, clearly showing how polarizing he is. When the candidates’ negative performance percentages are subtracted from their positive percentages, Fiorina notched a positive 20, whereas Trump scored a negative 11. Both Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz did well, with net scores of positive 12 and 11. Rand Paul also fared poorly, scoring a negative 11.

Finally, the poll found that Republican voters report that these debates matter: 25% said a candidate’s debate performance is very important to their vote decision, and another 54% it is somewhat important. The next Republican debate will take place on September 16 at the Reagan Library in California.

The NBC News Online Survey was conducted online by SurveyMonkey from August7-8, 2015 among a national sample of 3,551 adults aged 18 and over. Respondents for this non-probability survey were selected from the nearly three million people who take surveys on the SurveyMonkey platform each day. Results have an error estimate of plus or minus 2.4 percentage points for the entire sample and 3.4 percentage points for Republican primary voters. A full description of our methodology can be found here. The survey was produced by the Analytics Unit of NBC News in conjunction with Penn’s Program on Opinion Research and Election Studies with data collection and tabulation conducted by SurveyMonkey. Analysis by the University of Pennsylvania’s Program on Opinion Research and Election Studies.
 

BGIF

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Donald Trump Still in the Lead After Debates: New NBC News/Survey Monkey Poll - NBC News

MEET THE PRESS AUG 10 2015, 3:00 AM ET

by SHAWNA THOMAS and JOHN LAPINSKI

If Donald Trump's comments about Fox News anchor Megyn Kelly are hurting his standing in the Republican primary, it's not showing in the numbers.

According to the latest NBC News Online Poll conducted by SurveyMonkey, Trump is at the top of the list of GOP candidates that Republican primary voters would cast a ballot for if the primary were being held right now.

The overnight poll was conducted for 24 hours from Friday evening into Saturday. During that period, Donald Trump stayed in the headlines due to his negative comments about Kelly and was dis-invited from a major conservative gathering in Atlanta.

None of that stopped Trump from coming in at the top of the poll with 23 percent. Sen. Ted Cruz was next on the list with 13 percent.

During the Fox News debate Thursday evening, Trump was the only Republican candidate to say he would not rule out a run as an independent candidate. According to this poll, that's just fine with over half of his supporters.

Fifty-four percent of Trump supporters said they would vote for him for president, even if he didn't win the GOP nomination. About one in five Trump supporters said they would switch and support the eventual Republican candidate.

The surprise result from the poll might have been businesswoman Carly Fiorina's performance. Twenty-two said she won the debate, besting Trump, Sen. Marco Rubio and Cruz.

In overall support, she came in fourth with eight percent of Republican primary voters saying they would support her in a primary or a caucus. This may not seem like a lot, but she had a gain in support of six points, which was the second highest in the poll.

Fiorina may have benefited from stepped up media coverage due to her performance in the so-called "Happy Hour" debate that aired on Thursday before the prime-time event.
 
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BGIF

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Who Won The Debate per NBC

Who Won The Debate per NBC

Among Republican Voters

Fiorina 22%
Trump 18
Rubio 13
Cruz 12
Carson 8
Huckabee 5

At the Bottom
Paul 3%
Walker 3
Bush 2
Christie 2
Kasich 2
 

BGIF

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Who Lost The Debate Among Republican voters per NBC

Who Lost The Debate Among Republican voters per NBC

Trump 29%
Paul 14
Bush 11
Christie 9
Graham 8
 

BGIF

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GOP Standings Among Republican Voters per NBC

GOP Standings Among Republican Voters per NBC

The Top
Trump 23%
Cruz 13
Carson 11
Fiorina 8
Rubio 8

The Bottom
Bush 7%
Walker 7
Paul 5
Huckleberry 4
Kasich 2
Perry 2
 
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C

Cackalacky

Guest
No big surprise that Bernie's supporters would have nothing better to do than come to his rally. Does this include the one with the lady introducing him and calling all white people racists during a 20 minute rant? Sounds like a fun crowd.

Why would Bernie's supporters have nothing else to do? These are genuine crowds that he is generating, no paid for actors like Trump. I am just not seeing your reason for being so dismissive of him, especially at this early stage. I totally plan on going to see him when he comes back through here. He was supposed to have an event here on the day of the Charleston Church shooting. They were already making plans to move the venue because of the larger than expected crowds and that is here, in a bastion of Red Conservatism.

And I am not sure of whom you are speaking about that lady? Do you mean the #BlackLivesMatter protesters that took over by jumping on stage to protest the Michael Brown anniversary? If so, thats because that happened twice in two days at two separate events. The second time I know he left the stage rather than partake and showed up later with an even larger crowd that was not disturbed.
 
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Ndaccountant

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Why would Bernie's supporters have nothing else to do? These are genuine crowds that he is generating, no paid for actors like Trump. I am just not seeing your reason for being so dismissive of him, especially at this early stage. I totally plan on going to see him when he comes back through here. He was supposed to have an event here on the day of the Charleston Church shooting. They were already making plans to move the venue because of the larger than expected crowds and that is here, in a bastion of Red Conservatism.

And I am not sure of whom you are speaking about that lady? Do you mean the #BlackLivesMatter protesters that tookover by jumping on stage to protest the Michael Brown anniversary? If , so because that happened twice in two days at two separate events. The second time I know he left the stage rather than partake and showed up later with an even larger crowd that was not disturbed.

I want him to show well.....keep pushing Hill-dog to the left. Plus, the better he does, the more of these I can get:
CK8bKz2UAAAtxPy.jpg
 

connor_in

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What I am hearing about Sanders from various sources on the right are that he is either a pawn and is meant to show how moderate HRC is OR he will shock the world and either capture the nomination or push for it up until close to the convention. It seems like it kinda what depends on what happens with HRC on her various outstanding issues.
 

Veritate Duce Progredi

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What I am hearing about Sanders from various sources on the right are that he is either a pawn and is meant to show how moderate HRC is OR he will shock the world and either capture the nomination or push for it up until close to the convention. It seems like it kinda what depends on what happens with HRC on her various outstanding issues.

Yeah, I could see that. I don't really see what makes HRC moderate compared to Sanders. Can anyone help me? I really, really don't follow politics so forgive me if this is common knowledge.
 

alohagoirish

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Hillary supports the TPP, she is for a minimum wage hike but hasn't joined sanders for the 15 dollar hike, she is for climate change action but is up to her neck with the trans Canada people on her staff and she will not come out against keystone as has sanders , she is always been good to Wall Street her husband very good to them and both of them surrounded by Goldman Sachs folks, on foreign policy she is a bit of a hawk, she pushed the bombing in Lybia for example....

Overall She is a triangulater in the mold of Bill and NOWHERE near the left leaning Sanders on many counts.
 

woolybug25

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What I am hearing about Sanders from various sources on the right are that he is either a pawn and is meant to show how moderate HRC is OR he will shock the world and either capture the nomination or push for it up until close to the convention. It seems like it kinda what depends on what happens with HRC on her various outstanding issues.

My tinfoil hat theory is that this is Trump's role.
 

GoIrish41

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Yeah, I could see that. I don't really see what makes HRC moderate compared to Sanders. Can anyone help me? I really, really don't follow politics so forgive me if this is common knowledge.

She is considered more business friendly than folks like, say, Elizabeth Warren or Bernie Sanders. She has a lot of ties to big banks and large companies through donations to her campaigns. Bernie's rhetoric suggests he's ready to dismantle big companies TR style while Hillary is more consiliatory toward them. As an example, Bernie doesn't give a crap if he offends big oil with his proposed policies. He has been pushing renewable energy and diminishing the hold of oil companies on Americans for years. Meanwhile, Hillary is avoiding offering an opinion on the Keystone Pipeline, so she doesn't lose votes by not being environmentally conscious enough, but she won't come out against it either, so as to not anger the oil comanies. Eventually, she will be forced to answer the question, but because she is pretty far to the right of Bernie, I'm not sure I'm confident which way she will go when she has to answer. I also think a lot of what people don't like about her is this sort of political fence balancing, and never being quite sure which side she's going to jump down on at any given time. ... that, and her and Slick Willy seem to be continuously at the center of one "scandal" or another. You can make up your own mind about whether it is the GOP being successful at demonizing her or that she does not particularly believe that all of the rules apply to her. My personal feeling that she is "moderate" because it is politically expedient for her to be such. I'm obviously one of those Democrats who hasn't bought into Hillary.
 

BGIF

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Hillary supports the TPP, she is for a minimum wage hike but hasn't joined sanders for the 15 dollar hike, she is for climate change action but is up to her neck with the trans Canada people on her staff and she will not come out against keystone as has sanders , she is always been good to Wall Street her husband very good to them and both of them surrounded by Goldman Sachs folks, on foreign policy she is a bit of a hawk, she pushed the bombing in Lybia for example....

Overall She is a triangulater in the mold of Bill and NOWHERE near the left leaning Sanders on many counts.


Monica Lewinsky 2.0?
 

GoIrish41

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My tinfoil hat theory is that this is Trump's role.

This is an interesting theory. But even if this was the intention, it seems to have backfired. His ego has been stroked and he is not going away any time soon. He will do a lot of damage to the party before this is sorted out.
 

wizards8507

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My tinfoil hat theory is that this is Trump's role.
A conservative pawn designed to distract from (and presumably help) the other GOP candidates, or a Democrat pawn designed to infiltrate the Republican primary only to withdraw and either endorse HRC or run third-party, thus ensuring her victory? Either seems pretty plausible to me.

This is an interesting theory. But even if this was the intention, it seems to have backfired. His ego has been stroked and he is not going away any time soon. He will do a lot of damage to the party before this is sorted out.
Maybe. But I think people associate him with his own "TRUMP" brand much more than the GOP brand.

Unrelated, this article from Grantland doesn't paint Scott Walker in a very positive light. Ironically, the author is a liberal who's ripping Walker apart for engaging in some very big-government machinations.

Palace Intrigue: Stadium Fights Explode in Milwaukee and L.A. «
 

GoIrish41

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A conservative pawn designed to distract from (and presumably help) the other GOP candidates, or a Democrat pawn designed to infiltrate the Republican primary only to withdraw and either endorse HRC or run third-party, thus ensuring her victory? Either seems pretty plausible to me.


Maybe. But I think people associate him with his own "TRUMP" brand much more than the GOP brand.

Unrelated, this article from Grantland doesn't paint Scott Walker in a very positive light. Ironically, the author is a liberal who's ripping Walker apart for engaging in some very big-government machinations.

Palace Intrigue: Stadium Fights Explode in Milwaukee and L.A. «

Perhaps, but he was center stage during the Republican debate ... and it does not look like he's willing to give up his place anytime soon.
 

wizards8507

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What I am hearing about Sanders from various sources on the right are that he is either a pawn and is meant to show how moderate HRC is OR he will shock the world and either capture the nomination or push for it up until close to the convention.
That's a dangerous game. If he manages to pull enough support to be a real threat, Hillary might actually need to move to the left to secure the base. Could end up completely backfiring.
 
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