2016 Presidential Horse Race

[GoIrish41]

Looks like New Hampshire isn't too happy with the Fox News people trying to influence the elections.

Union Leader to host Presidential candidates' forum Aug. 6 | New Hampshire

Neither am I.

 

[phgreek]

Looks like New Hampshire isn't too happy with the Fox News people trying to influence the elections.

Union Leader to host Presidential candidates' forum Aug. 6 | New Hampshire

I'll be watching for their "Candy Crowley" moment...

 

[wizards8507]

http://www.politico.com/story/2015/06/rand-paul-doesnt-run-with-the-herd-118951.html

Sent from my Samsung Galaxy Note 4 using Tapatalk.

 

[Black Irish]

The Myths of 2016 - Larry J. Sabato and Kyle Kondik and Geoffrey Skelley - POLITICO Magazine

This story dispels the 4 big myths about the run-up to the election right now. To summarize:

1.) The GOP field isn't going to be all that crowded. It's Bush, Rubio, and Walker followed by a bunch of people with no shot.

2.) All of the negative press towards Hillary isn't moving the needle on her favorability. It's only dropped 2 points since she more-or-less announced.

3.) Money is not going to buy this election outright. Yes, a ton is being raised and spent, but no one is going to coast based on having a fat war chest.

4.) Independents won't be a huge factor, because the vast majority of voters are locked down into their sides pretty tight.

 

[connor_in]

Welcome to Hillary Island, a Pleasant Little Police State - The Daily Beast

 

[Buster Bluth]

1.) The GOP field isn't going to be all that crowded. It's Bush, Rubio, and Walker followed by a bunch of people with no shot.

It just depends on whether you place more emphasis on "a bunch of people" or "with no shot." The stage will certainly be crowded with people taking stands to sell books and hope they get a sound bite that launches them to national recognition (see: Santorum, Huckabee), for a front-runner that's a minefield.

3.) Money is not going to buy this election outright. Yes, a ton is being raised and spent, but no one is going to coast based on having a fat war chest.

Who is saying money allows someone to coast? What sickens people is that money is a prerequisite.

4.) Independents won't be a huge factor, because the vast majority of voters are locked down into their sides pretty tight.

Ehh. Maybe not independents per se but plenty of people 1) are swing voters and/or 2) stay home on election day. Appealing to the middle and creating energy wins national elections. It's why the GOP is 0/2 since Bush.

 

[connor_in]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Presented without further comment: How the <a href="https://twitter.com/AP">@AP</a> reports on two female presidential candidates from different parties. <a href="http://t.co/bbcDzjepIM">pic.twitter.com/bbcDzjepIM</a></p>— LilMissSoulGlo (@LilMissRightie) <a href="https://twitter.com/LilMissRightie/status/609876383062470656">June 14, 2015</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

 

[IrishJayhawk]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Presented without further comment: How the <a href="https://twitter.com/AP">@AP</a> reports on two female presidential candidates from different parties. <a href="http://t.co/bbcDzjepIM">pic.twitter.com/bbcDzjepIM</a></p>— LilMissSoulGlo (@LilMissRightie) <a href="https://twitter.com/LilMissRightie/status/609876383062470656">June 14, 2015</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

You should read the articles and consider the context of the announcements.

When Fiorina announced, she made no mention of herself being a woman and didn't emphasize that in the least. She tweeted that she would have an announcement on Good Morning America and then talked about why she would be a good candidate (i.e., I'm a good leader, I know how to make decisions, etc.) when she did announce the following morning in a 2 1/2 minute segment.

Hillary, on the other hand, held an extensive rally on Saturday. She specifically mentioned the "glass ceiling" that she had failed to shatter in her previous run. This headline was reporting on that rally, not on her official announcement, which happened in early April. I used the google machine to find some headlines from when Hillary actually officially announced. That quick search revealed these article titles:

AP: Hillary Clinton to announce run for president soon
Huffington Post: Hillary Clinton Announces 2016 Presidential Run, Releases Campaign Video
NY Times: Hillary Clinton Announces 2016 Presidential Bid
Newsweek: It's Official: Hillary Clinton Is Running for President

 

[Black Irish]

It just depends on whether you place more emphasis on "a bunch of people" or "with no shot." The stage will certainly be crowded with people taking stands to sell books and hope they get a sound bite that launches them to national recognition (see: Santorum, Huckabee), for a front-runner that's a minefield.



Who is saying money allows someone to coast? What sickens people is that money is a prerequisite.



Ehh. Maybe not independents per se but plenty of people 1) are swing voters and/or 2) stay home on election day. Appealing to the middle and creating energy wins national elections. It's why the GOP is 0/2 since Bush.

I was summarizing the linked article in my previous post, but I'll answer your points with my own opinion.

1.) The crowded GOP field isn't that big of a problem. I'd wager that the same 3 front-runners would emerge whether it's a 3-way race or a 10-way race. I do disagree with the article in its complete dismissal of Rand Paul as a factor. He may not take the nomination, but his presence will be felt; maybe more than Scott Walker's.

2.) The money aspect. The common view is that the candidate with a big war chest will have a significantly easier time. It's the old "money buys elections" canard. It's more accurate to say "money doesn't buy elections, but money is needed to run for office." That leads into what you say about "it sickens people that money is a prerequisite." Why is that so sickening? Consider that a person who is making a serious run for president is basically creating a nation-wide business enterprise with multiple franchise outlets all over the country. A serious contender needs: an executive staff, regional and local coordinators, office space, money for media buys, transportation, and so on. Just as a logistical consideration, running for president is a complex and massive undertaking. It is necessarily expensive. A candidate needs donors, and people aren't going to donate unless they have a vested interest in seeing a candidate win. The idea of a fiercely independent candidate who can speak truth to power and not be beholden, or even need, the money of a donor class is fantasy. The closest you'll come is an independently wealthy person who can run on his own dime. And people like that (e.g. Mitt Romney, Meg Whitman, Ross Perot) tend to get written off as self-aggrandizing elites who are trying to buy their way to the top. Incidentally, they don't tend to win their elections, either.

3.) Swing voters and independents have their points of passion, too. Those points just aren't as easily serviced by the two party system. But I seriously doubt too many voters pull the lever because they think "this guy doesn't stir any string feelings in me; he's obviously a winner." People may BS themselves that they are voting for common sense or fairness or sensible thinking, but they are voting their biases just like anyone else. I forgot who said it, but I believe that politicians don't win by walking towards the swing voter center. They win because they pull the swing voters to their side.

 

[pkt77242]

This time, Donald Trump says he's running

 

[GoIrish41]

This time, Donald Trump says he's running

lol

 

[phgreek]

lol

I guess, by being conservative, I get some of the hit when people like Trump Run...He is at least successful, and a leader of his own making. Not sure he understands subtlety enough to do the job. Pretty sure everyone understands that.

...I'll take tangential frustration from Donald Humor over what actual support for Hillary says about Libberal/Progressives....any day.

 

[woolybug25]

I guess, by being conservative, I get some of the hit when people like Trump Run...He is at least successful, and a leader of his own making. Not sure he understands subtlety enough to do the job. Pretty sure everyone understands that.

...I'll take tangential frustration from Donald Humor over what actual support for Hillary says about Libberal/Progressives....any day.

Oh lord.... are we going to have to go over this every four years?

In March 2011 Forbes estimated Donald Trump's net worth to be $2.7 billion, with a $60 million salary. Many praise and analyze his “success” as if it were self-made, and they fail to attribute the proper credit to others in society where it is deserved. Despite what Trump may espouse, his success would have been in no way possible without his father, the general public, and the US government. Unfortunately, Trump decided to forget or selectively ignore these truths while forming his political philosophy, a sentiment made particularly clear during his brief bid for the 2012 Republican presidential nomination.

Exposing How Donald Trump Really Made His Fortune: Inheritance from Dad and the Government's Protection Mostly Did the Trick | Alternet

 

[phgreek]

Oh lord.... are we going to have to go over this every four years?



Exposing How Donald Trump Really Made His Fortune: Inheritance from Dad and the Government's Protection Mostly Did the Trick | Alternet

oh lord...Many people have opportunities based on their folks, many fail. He has had his ups and downs, but I think the success is HIS...as acknowledged by his father. The old man's business grew tremendously when Donald pushed him into the Manhattan market in the 70s. You can't simply look at what was left when the old man died because what it was Donald himself grew. The makeup of Trump's organization is based largely on Donalds vision and decisions, and HIS ability to negotiate.

Some one once told me its easy to underestimate people you don't like....who was that?

 

[woolybug25]

oh lord...Many people have opportunities based on their folks, many fail. He has had his ups and downs, but I think the success is HIS...as acknowledged by his father. The old man's business grew tremendously when Donald pushed him into the Manhattan market in the 70s. You can't simply look at what was left when the old man died because what it was Donald himself grew. The makeup of Trump's organization is based largely on Donalds vision and decisions, and HIS ability to negotiate.

Some one once told me its easy to underestimate people you don't like....who was that?

You didn't read the article, apparently.

 

[phgreek]

You didn't read the article, apparently.

Saw it before, and have read OTHER sources to form my opinion on Donald...see how that works.

 

[Ultimate Penn St. Hater]

I still don't believe Donald is actually running. He will find a way to "exit" the race before Iowa.

 

[woolybug25]

Saw it before, and have read OTHER sources to form my opinion on Donald...see how that works.

So you're saying because you theoretically have read articles with your preferred narrative, you have no need to read the one I provided?

I'm fully aware of how information gathering works for you...

 

[BGIF]

You should read the articles and consider the context of the announcements.

When Fiorina announced, she made no mention of herself being a woman and didn't emphasize that in the least. She tweeted that she would have an announcement on Good Morning America and then talked about why she would be a good candidate (i.e., I'm a good leader, I know how to make decisions, etc.) when she did announce the following morning in a 2 1/2 minute segment.

Hillary, on the other hand, held an extensive rally on Saturday. She specifically mentioned the "glass ceiling" that she had failed to shatter in her previous run. This headline was reporting on that rally, not on her official announcement, which happened in early April. I used the google machine to find some headlines from when Hillary actually officially announced. That quick search revealed these article titles:

AP: Hillary Clinton to announce run for president soon
Huffington Post: Hillary Clinton Announces 2016 Presidential Run, Releases Campaign Video
NY Times: Hillary Clinton Announces 2016 Presidential Bid
Newsweek: It's Official: Hillary Clinton Is Running for President

Obviously there is no doubt about Fiorina's gender. Apparently Clinton feels the need to establish hers, repeatedly.

Just as Clinton needs to keep beating the drum, Sharptonesque, about the glass ceiling. Contrary to her mantra, it wasn't a glass ceiling 8 years ago that kept her out of the White House. It was her (and her team's) ineptness in the primaries 8 years ago that denied her a shot at the presidency. There was no vast right wing conspiracy orchestrating Obama's campaign. Her own party, with all those progressives, didn't find her the best candidate. She wasn't shut out. She lost.

Fiorina broke glass ceilings at mulitiple levels, department, division, company, becoming the first female CEO of a Fortune 100 Company. Now, that was a real glass ceiling.

Clinton got her job at the Rose Law firm when her husband was Arkansas Attorney General and she became the first female full partner at Rose when her husband became Governor. She was known at her company as a Rainmaker because she brought in so many new clients while the First Lady of Arkansas.

Cue "The Good Wife".

Only The Good Wife didn't misfile company legal documents only to "discover" them 20 years later, a 1000 miles away, on a table in the White House.

 

[IrishJayhawk]

Obviously there is no doubt about Fiorina's gender. Apparently Clinton feels the need to establish hers, repeatedly.

Just as Clinton needs to keep beating the drum, Sharptonesque, about the glass ceiling. Contrary to her mantra, it wasn't a glass ceiling 8 years ago that kept her out of the White House. It was her (and her team's) ineptness in the primaries 8 years ago that denied her a shot at the presidency. There was no vast right wing conspiracy orchestrating Obama's campaign. Her own party, with all those progressives, didn't find her the best candidate. She wasn't shut out. She lost.

Fiorina broke glass ceilings at mulitiple levels, department, division, company, becoming the first female CEO of a Fortune 100 Company. Now, that was a real glass ceiling.

That's all fine. I don't necessarily even disagree. But the assertion was that the AP (and, by extension, all of the supposed "liberal media") was favoring Clinton. That's not true.

 

[Booslum31]

I still don't believe Donald is actually running. He will find a way to "exit" the race before Iowa.

I hope you are right. I'm on his side of the ledger but i can't stand to hear him speak.

 

[wizards8507]

Obviously there is no doubt about Fiorina's gender.

You haven't been reading the news lately, have you?

 

[connor_in]

That's all fine. I don't necessarily even disagree. But the assertion was that the AP (and, by extension, all of the supposed "liberal media") was favoring Clinton. That's not true.

The day Hillary’s team booted me off the bus: ‘The Clinton's campaign wants to control which reporters can come along for the ride. Today it was supposed to be me - but at the last minute I was shut out. That's NOT okay' | Daily Mail Online

 

[GoIrish41]

Obviously there is no doubt about Fiorina's gender. Apparently Clinton feels the need to establish hers, repeatedly.

Just as Clinton needs to keep beating the drum, Sharptonesque, about the glass ceiling. Contrary to her mantra, it wasn't a glass ceiling 8 years ago that kept her out of the White House. It was her (and her team's) ineptness in the primaries 8 years ago that denied her a shot at the presidency. There was no vast right wing conspiracy orchestrating Obama's campaign. Her own party, with all those progressives, didn't find her the best candidate. She wasn't shut out. She lost.

Fiorina broke glass ceilings at mulitiple levels, department, division, company, becoming the first female CEO of a Fortune 100 Company. Now, that was a real glass ceiling.

Clinton got her job at the Rose Law firm when her husband was Arkansas Attorney General and she became the first female full partner at Rose when her husband became Governor. She was known at her company as a Rainmaker because she brought in so many new clients while the First Lady of Arkansas.

Cue "The Good Wife".

Only The Good Wife didn't misfile company legal documents only to "discover" them 20 years later, a 1000 miles away, on a table in the White House.

Caitlyn Fiorina?

 

[Whiskeyjack]

I'm surprised that Whiskey is so sold on Rand, as its a candidate that really seems to take your viewpoint regarding libertarianism and what it means to governing. Maybe i'm missing something there.

I didn't have a chance to follow-up on this when I first read it, so apologies for the delayed response. I'm not "sold" on Rand, but he seems the least bad option available to me, for the following reasons:

• Foreign policy is the area in which Presidents have the greatest impact (and the freest hand), so that's a big one for me. Rand at least seems to appreciate the obvious limits of American military power, and the importance of husbanding our resources in order to continue undergirding the global economic system. Meanwhile, every other Republican candidate is busy trying to out-hawk the other, and to the Democrats' great shame, Hilary is even more hawkish than all but a few.
• Rand is just about the only candidate who's serious about rebuilding our civil liberties and rolling back the worst excesses of our post-9/11 surveillance state.
• Rand is pro-life, and of the available options, he'd likely be the most consistent champion of religious liberty.

There's plenty I don't like about the guy; his recent pandering to the Israel lobby was extremely disappointing. But for the reasons outlined above, I don't see any better options available.

It's unlikely to matter, though, since he polls terribly among women within the GOP itself. Unless he can figure out a way to close the gender gap, he doesn't have a prayer.

 

[IrishJayhawk]

The day Hillary’s team booted me off the bus: ‘The Clinton's campaign wants to control which reporters can come along for the ride. Today it was supposed to be me - but at the last minute I was shut out. That's NOT okay' | Daily Mail Online

How does this relate to the AP writing "liberal" headlines?

 

[phgreek]

So you're saying because you theoretically have read articles with your preferred narrative, you have no need to read the one I provided?

I'm fully aware of how information gathering works for you...

I said...

"Saw it before, and have read OTHER sources to form my opinion on Donald...see how that works."

...ie, I actually saw your citation prior to you posting it and had already read it ... IN ADDITION TO OTHER SOURCES.

...so share with me how information gathering works for me...since I clearly don't know.

I think your post makes pretty clear how you think of yourself and others...shrug.

 

[woolybug25]

I said...

"Saw it before, and have read OTHER sources to form my opinion on Donald...see how that works."

...ie, I actually saw your citation prior to you posting it and had already read it ... IN ADDITION TO OTHER SOURCES.

...so share with me how information gathering works for me...since I clearly don't know.

I think your post makes pretty clear how you think of yourself and others...shrug.

You know what, you're right. Not about Trump, but me.

I forgot about my response until now and frankly I'm better than that. I misread your post and gave a knee jerk response. I disagree with you, but I generally respect the way you debate and present yourself on the board. My apologies.

 

[Ultimate Penn St. Hater]

I hope you are right. I'm on his side of the ledger but i can't stand to hear him speak.

Plus, he knows he can't win.

 

[EddytoNow]

Obviously there is no doubt about Fiorina's gender. Apparently Clinton feels the need to establish hers, repeatedly.

Just as Clinton needs to keep beating the drum, Sharptonesque, about the glass ceiling. Contrary to her mantra, it wasn't a glass ceiling 8 years ago that kept her out of the White House. It was her (and her team's) ineptness in the primaries 8 years ago that denied her a shot at the presidency. There was no vast right wing conspiracy orchestrating Obama's campaign. Her own party, with all those progressives, didn't find her the best candidate. She wasn't shut out. She lost.

Fiorina broke glass ceilings at mulitiple levels, department, division, company, becoming the first female CEO of a Fortune 100 Company. Now, that was a real glass ceiling.

Clinton got her job at the Rose Law firm when her husband was Arkansas Attorney General and she became the first female full partner at Rose when her husband became Governor. She was known at her company as a Rainmaker because she brought in so many new clients while the First Lady of Arkansas.

Cue "The Good Wife".

Only The Good Wife didn't misfile company legal documents only to "discover" them 20 years later, a 1000 miles away, on a table in the White House.

Fiorina laid off thousands of workers and led HP's stockholders off a cliff with a 50% reduction in stock value. Her career at HP ended with her being fired by the Board of Directors for her poor management style. So when she talks about her experience leading a Fortune 500 company, she fails to mention the lives she negatively impacted. She wasn't up to the job. What makes her think she is up to the task of being president?

I'd love to see Fiorina as the Republican candidate. She has most of Mitt Romney's negatives and none of his positives.