2016 Presidential Horse Race

[IrishinSyria]

Such fracking BS that Bush is allowed to dodge campaign finance rules by not declaring his candidacy.

 

[Wild Bill]

Such fracking BS that Bush is allowed to dodge campaign finance rules by not declaring his candidacy.

I'd just open up a not-for-profit, announce my candidacy and play by the rules.

https://s3.amazonaws.com/wp-ag/wp-content/uploads/sites/72/2015/03/Clintonpantsuits.gif

 

[wizards8507]

Are you fucking kidding me, New York Times!? Marco Rubio is unfit to be President because his wife is a shitty driver!?

http://www.nytimes.com/politics/fir...ife-cited-17-times-for-traffic-infractions-2/

 

[ACamp1900]

haha, if only a spouse's behavior mattered for all candidates......

 

[connor_in]

Are you fucking kidding me, New York Times!? Marco Rubio is unfit to be President because his wife is a shitty driver!?

http://www.nytimes.com/politics/fir...ife-cited-17-times-for-traffic-infractions-2/

Marco Rubio and His Wife Cited 17 Times for Traffic Infractions

This sounds incredibly ominous...but then...

A review of records dating back to 1997 shows that the couple had a combined 17 citations: Mr. Rubio with four and his wife with 13.

...so basically he's not too great of a driver, and she is crappy. But the headline makes it seem worse for Marco.

Dealt with Insurance for years and while Marco is not a role model on the road, 4 citations in nearly 20 years?...I have seen A LOT worse, and depending on dates, he may not even require high risk auto insurance. His wife is a crappy driver and thus would require them to have the high risk carrier.

But it is nice to see that the NYT focuses on the important aspects of R POTUS candidates like this and Romney in HS.

 

[EddytoNow]

Why not? His father did decently in the early states, and Rand is much more palatable to the base.

Sent from my Samsung Galaxy Note 4 using Tapatalk.

Well, it may be different in the state where you live. In my state, you have to declare your party affiliation to vote in the primaries. Independent voters are locked out of the primaries. But perhaps your state has an open primary where anyone can vote for either party.

 

[wizards8507]

Listen to Rand Paul - The Washington Post

 

[Polish Leppy 22]

Are you fucking kidding me, New York Times!? Marco Rubio is unfit to be President because his wife is a shitty driver!?

http://www.nytimes.com/politics/fir...ife-cited-17-times-for-traffic-infractions-2/

Blatant racism

 

[wizards8507]

Dealt with Insurance for years and while Marco is not a role model on the road, 4 citations in nearly 20 years?

Seriously. I have three traffic citations in nine years, one of them including a firearm (failure to check-in to hunting grounds). I'd love to see how the NYT would spin that if I were a candidate for something.

 

[woolybug25]

Question on Rand. Would he ever consider running as an independent if he lost the Republican primary?

 

[ACamp1900]

Question on Rand. Would he ever consider running as an independent if he lost the Republican primary?

Democrat wetdream

 

[wizards8507]

Question on Rand. Would he ever consider running as an independent if he lost the Republican primary?

Rand Paul Could Win Libertarian Nomination, Too - US News

Democrat wetdream

Think so? I think a third party Rand Paul could win 40-30-30. Not likely, but possible. Not sure all of the electoral college implications there, but it would be damn interesting.

 

[woolybug25]

Democrat wetdream

Man... I don't know... that's always been the mantra, but it seems like this is the rare case where more democrats would vote outside of their party than republicans. He is clearly the most popular of all Republican candidates within the more liberal of the undecided. He's the "Anti-Hillary" and is probably the most disliked candidate by hard line conservatives.

 

[woolybug25]

Rand Paul Could Win Libertarian Nomination, Too - US News


Think so? I think a third party Rand Paul could win 40-30-30. Not likely, but possible. Not sure all of the electoral college implications there, but it would be damn interesting.

That's a good article. I found this comment really interesting.

If Paul is nominated by both the Republican and Libertarian parties, it could also unleash electoral scenarios unseen in decades, such as the negotiation of a fusion slate of electors. Libertarians could, theoretically, nominate their own vice presidential candidate.

 

[wizards8507]

He's the "Anti-Hillary" and is probably the most disliked candidate by hard line conservatives.

Whiskey and I are complete opposite ends of the conservative base but we both #StandWithRand. If you, Whiskey, and I all agreed on a candidate, that says a whole lot about his crossover appeal. Rand isn't hated by the base, he's hated by the party power structure. That's fine for him because if there's one thing GOP voters hate, it's GOP politicians.

 

[woolybug25]

Whiskey and I are complete opposite ends of the conservative base but we both #StandWithRand. If you, Whiskey, and I all agreed on a candidate, that says a whole lot about his crossover appeal. Rand isn't hated by the base, he's hated by the party power structure. That's fine for him because if there's one thing GOP voters hate, it's GOP politicians.

I'm surprised that Whiskey is so sold on Rand, as its a candidate that really seems to take your viewpoint regarding libertarianism and what it means to governing. Maybe i'm missing something there.

I'm not sure that he isn't the least liked candidate (of realistic candidates, that is) in the party. He is universally polling in 5th behind even Ben Carson. RealClearPolitics.com put together some nice graphs of polling numbers.

2016 National Republican Primary - Polls - HuffPost Pollster

I would add that if you watch Fox News, he is consistently lambasted on there. We all know that there is a cult following of 'Merica! type folks that will simply vote for whoever Fox tells them to, let's not underestimate how big that voting block is in respects to the Republican voting base.

 

[wizards8507]

I'm surprised that Whiskey is so sold on Rand, as its a candidate that really seems to take your viewpoint regarding libertarianism and what it means to governing. Maybe i'm missing something there.

Whiskey's understanding and articulation of libertarianism is extremely academic and not what the rest of the population understand libertarianism to be.

I would add that if you watch Fox News, he is consistently lambasted on there. We all know that there is a cult following of 'Merica! type folks that will simply vote for whoever Fox tells them to, let's not underestimate how big that voting block is in respects to the Republican voting base.

I agree, and Fox is out of control. But they've gotten so transparent that even talk radio is going after them. I'm hoping the base either A) is smart enough to see it, or B) are more sheepish to what Rush and Beck tell them than what O'Reilly and Rove tell them.

ETA: Rand polls middle-of-the-pack on the nominating surveys, but he polls very strongly head-to-head against Hillary. Also, whomever proves to be the anti-Bush will grow as candidates drop out. Bush should see no such boost.

Edit 2: The RCP average includes an outlier poll from like two months ago that had Bush at something like 23%. I'm not buying it.

 

[GoIrish41]

Man... I don't know... that's always been the mantra, but it seems like this is the rare case where more democrats would vote outside of their party than republicans. He is clearly the most popular of all Republican candidates within the more liberal of the undecided. He's the "Anti-Hillary" and is probably the most disliked candidate by hard line conservatives.

I agree. If money were not an issue 3rd party would be his best chance. Alas, money has become the most important thing and he has an uphill climb to get enough traditional republican support to get nominated. If he an peel off enough independents and find a couple sugar daddies it might be his easiest path. Lots of Dems do not like Hillary's perceived inevitability or the constant drama that always comes with the Clintons. This is the best time in years for a viable third party candidate with some cred with independent voters.

 

[woolybug25]

Whiskey's understanding and articulation of libertarianism is extremely academic and not what the rest of the population understand libertarianism to be.


I agree, and Fox is out of control. But they've gotten so transparent that even talk radio is going after them. I'm hoping the base either A) is smart enough to see it, or B) are more sheepish to what Rush and Beck tell them than what O'Reilly and Rove tell them.

ETA: Rand polls middle-of-the-pack on the nominating surveys, but he polls very strongly head-to-head against Hillary. Also, whomever proves to be the anti-Bush will grow as candidates drop out. Bush should see no such boost.

Edit 2: The RCP average includes an outlier poll from like two months ago that had Bush at something like 23%. I'm not buying it.

I agree with all of that with two sidebars.

1) Never expect a large group of people to be "smart enough to see it".
2) Roughly half of the current plate of Republican candidates are unrealistic options. So "middle of the pack" in that slate ranks near or at the bottom of realistic candidates, imo.

 

[Black Irish]

I agree. If money were not an issue 3rd party would be his best chance. Alas, money has become the most important thing and he has an uphill climb to get enough traditional republican support to get nominated. If he an peel off enough independents and find a couple sugar daddies it might be his easiest path. Lots of Dems do not like Hillary's perceived inevitability or the constant drama that always comes with the Clintons. This is the best time in years for a viable third party candidate with some cred with independent voters.

Hmmm. Clinton vs Bush and a strong 3rd party candidate to throw in a monkey wrench. It's 1992 all over again. Do I have to take trigonometry again too?

 

[ND NYC]

I'm not gonna rule out Mike Bloomberg jumping into this thing...as to which party your guess as good as mine

 

[GoIrish41]

Hmmm. Clinton vs Bush and a strong 3rd party candidate to throw in a monkey wrench. It's 1992 all over again. Do I have to take trigonometry again too?

Rand and Bernie are not crazier than Perot and Stockdale. If we are going to make it interesting, let's make it interesting.

 

[connor_in]

Are you fucking kidding me, New York Times!? Marco Rubio is unfit to be President because his wife is a shitty driver!?

http://www.nytimes.com/politics/fir...ife-cited-17-times-for-traffic-infractions-2/

saw this and figured I'd put it here for just a factoid

Democratic Oppo Firm’s Fingerprints on NYT Rubio Hit | Washington Free Beacon

 

[phgreek]

saw this and figured I'd put it here for just a factoid

Democratic Oppo Firm’s Fingerprints on NYT Rubio Hit | Washington Free Beacon

So all comments to the comparative insanity when you look at Democrats aside...

So lemme get this straight...the Rubios are bad drivers...the position Marco is chasing basically prevents them from having to drive the rest of their lives.

desperation to the point of buffoonery...I'm laughing my ass off...love it!

 

[connor_in]

https://twitter.com/hashtag/RubioCrimeSpree?src=hash

 

[woolybug25]

So all comments to the comparative insanity when you look at Democrats aside...

So lemme get this straight...the Rubios are bad drivers...the position Marco is chasing basically prevents them from having to drive the rest of their lives.

desperation to the point of buffoonery...I'm laughing my ass off...love it!

Desperate? You have a candidate in Hillary that is leading in polls and currently playin rope-a-dope with Republicans by sitting back and letting them frame her campaign pitch. Maybe locally and state campaigns would benefit from silly press like that, but don't get it twisted... Hillary is still playing in a position of strength.

 

[phgreek]

Desperate? You have a candidate in Hillary that is leading in polls and currently playin rope-a-dope with Republicans by sitting back and letting them frame her campaign pitch. Maybe locally and state campaigns would benefit from silly press like that, but don't get it twisted... Hillary is still playing in a position of strength.

no doubt this is the clinton machine's to lose.

But Rope-a-dope assumes something other than fear of failure driving the Hillary silence game. She sucks ass as a politician. She is hoping enough time goes by so she can pull out the tired line "thats old news". And if you are a Clinton, that still might work, but don't make it sound like it is her outsmarting anyone.

And you can't see the desperation in this Rubio thing...really?

 

[wizards8507]

https://twitter.com/SardinePundit/status/606880258462121984?s=09

Sent from my Samsung Galaxy Note 4 using Tapatalk.

 

[woolybug25]

no doubt this is the clinton machine's to lose.

But Rope-a-dope assumes something other than fear of failure driving the Hillary silence game. She sucks ass as a politician. She is hoping enough time goes by so she can pull out the tired line "thats old news". And if you are a Clinton, that still might work, but don't make it sound like it is her outsmarting anyone.

And you can't see the desperation in this Rubio thing...really?

You may not like Hillary, but saying she sucks as a politician is completely false. She is a Clinton and came within an ant's dick of becoming the first female President. You don't get to where she is by sucking at campaigning. I assure you that her silence is not coming from a fear of failure. It comes from the real reality that she has nothing to gain. Up until the primaries, conservatives are going to be forced to attack each other and bring their faults to the forefront. Would a good politician stand in the way of that?

It's common for people to underestimate people they personally do not like. If you think she is stupid and doesn't know how to campaign, then prepare to be scratching your head.

Regarding the article, it's stupid as hell, but not desperate. It certainly isn't desperation from Clinton, as it doesn't have her personal footprint on it. Don't mistake being an asshole with desperation.

 

[connor_in]

HRC may indeed win, but I don't think its inevitable. There is no excitement for her even among her base.