The Optimal Notre Dame Scheduling Model

[woolybug25]

...which will be severely harmed by playing Hawaii.


Look, from what I understand, the committee isn't meeting at the very end of the regular season to make these decisions. I think they are even releasing rankings as the season goes on. Therefore, we have to assume that going into championship week, the committee will have their top 6 teams in order. Your argument is therefore that beating Hawaii could mitigate the effect of an OSU Big Ten championship win. That makes no sense to me. Either a) we had enough of a cushion going into that game for OSU's win to be irrelevant or b) we were tied or behind OSU before the game and we aren't going to pass them no matter what.

It's theoretically possible, I suppose, for our "cushion" to be at a magic number that makes a win over anyone at all important. It's possible, but unlikely. And that possibility isn't enough to warrant risking a loss, injury, or a bad performance which actually could destroy any cushion e already had.

Yeah. We can just disagree. Playing another game, regardless of opponent, wouldn't hurt our SoS. The same way powderpuff SEC non conference games don't hurt theirs. How many times have we seen those games overlooked when people talk about difficulty of schedules. People instinctively look at what teams did against the best of their schedules. Bad teams only matter when it's a loss, and like I said before, losing to Hawaii would make the playoffs a moot point anyway.

 

[woolybug25]

Every year that ND is in double-digit wins, potentially with a playoff birth on the line, and then has to travel all the way to Hawaii to play their final game of the year has "heartbreak" written all over it.

Sure, ND should win that game every time, but the long plane flight, plus a potentially fired-up Hawaii that's ready to try and play spoiler, plus the fact that no one is going to care/watch that game while conference championship games are on anyway, sounds terrible.

If we lost to Hawaii, regardless of circumstance, we had no business being in the playoffs to begin with. It wouldn't be heartbreaking, because we probably would have lost other games before that anyway.

 

[woolybug25]

Your argument is that an 11-1 ND team isn't good enough to make the playoffs because they didn't win a conference championship. But somehow a 12-1 ND with an extra win against Hawaii somehow now would make the playoffs? I just don't agree.

That's not my argument at all. Read Wizard's post again.

I'm saying that an 11-1 team would be good enough if it weren't for bowl affiliated Big 5 teams getting to play a conference championship. If a 12-1 ACC team wins the championship game... hell... a 11-2 ACC team wins their conference. Then you are crazy if you think there wont be tons of people calling for them to pass a Notre Dame team that hasn't played anyone in a couple weeks.

If you fundamentally don't believe that, then cool. We'll find out.

 

[IrishLion]

People instinctively look at what teams did against the best of their schedules. Bad teams only matter when it's a loss

That's exactly the point though! No one is going to care that Notre Dame played an extra game when the extra game is against Hawaii, especially when they will be watching the conference championship games that weekend anyway.

What they care about is, "what was ND's best win?"

And the answer to that question will never be "Hawaii." I find it hard to believe that "But they played a 13th game!" will hold enough weight to mitigate the risk of travelling all the way to Hawaii for a game.

 

[Buster Bluth]

I want to play Hawaii just to add a victory so Notre Dame can get closer to Michigan's win total.

 

[woolybug25]

That's exactly the point though! No one is going to care that Notre Dame played an extra game when the extra game is against Hawaii, especially when they will be watching the conference championship games that weekend anyway.

What they care about is, "what was ND's best win?"

And the answer to that question will never be "Hawaii." I find it hard to believe that "But they played a 13th game!" will hold enough weight to mitigate the risk of travelling all the way to Hawaii for a game.

I addressed these points already above, homie. I'm not going to keep reiterating the same points over and over.

 

[IrishLion]

If we lost to Hawaii, regardless of circumstance, we had no business being in the playoffs to begin with. It wouldn't be heartbreaking, because we probably would have lost other games before that anyway.

You would be completely comfortable with 12-0 ND having to travel all the way to Hawaii for a game against a team that has nothing to lose?

I wouldn't haha. There's no point. Jumping through all those hoops just for an extra game isn't worth the strain it would put on the team.

 

[IrishLion]

I want to play Hawaii just to add a victory so Notre Dame can get closer to Michigan's win total.

Now THAT is a good argument.

 

[woolybug25]

You would be completely comfortable with 12-0 ND having to travel all the way to Hawaii for a game against a team that has nothing to lose?

I wouldn't haha. There's no point. Jumping through all those hoops just for an extra game aren't worth the strain it would put on the team.

As I just stated, I addressed this above. But an additional thought is this... do you want to be in the position where 12-0 is the only way Notre Dame can make the playoffs? In that world, we would have made the playoffs 12 times out of the last 127 seasons, and only twice since Ara started coaching. I'm not a huge fan of that road to the playoffs.

 

[GowerND11]

Pundits and "experts" are already clamoring about the Big XII not playing a Conference Championship Game, especially those with SEC leans. Granted many know that it shouldn't matter, but it DOES matter unfortunately. Lucky for the Big XII they can claim 9 conference games and schedule some big matchups for the last week of the season (championship week), but there is still talk that they shouldn't be allowed in the discussion without a CCG.

 

[IrishLion]

do you want to be in the position where 12-0 is the only way Notre Dame can make the playoffs? In that world, we would have made the playoffs 12 times out of the last 127 seasons, and only twice since Ara started coaching. I'm not a huge fan of that road to the playoffs.

11-1 vs 12-1 will be viewed essentially the same, IMO, because the first question is "who did they beat?"

The next question would be, "who did they lose to?"

The answer to both of those questions should never be "Hawaii."

In the end, I just don't think the extra game would be worth it's weight in perception.

 

[gkIrish]

The fact is that we aren't going to play a conference championship game anytime soon. Other teams will always have that advantage. So trying to compensate that by playing a 13th game against Hawaii to fool voters into thinking we are playing a meaningful game while the other championships are going on is pointless. Either our resume prior to championship week is good enough, or it's not.

If Notre Dame goes 11-1 this year and doesn't make the playoffs because there are 4 other conference champions with 1 loss, we have a problem that won't be fixed by adding Hawaii. It will only be fixed by joining a conference or by winning all our games.

 

[woolybug25]

11-1 vs 12-1 will be viewed essentially the same, IMO, because the first question is "who did they beat?"

One less team than every other team in college football.

The next question would be, "who did they lose to?"

The same or worse than the rest of the playoff contenders.

The answer to both of those questions should never be "Hawaii."

Neither of them would. They would be "same amount of victories" or "more victories". Again, in no season where we are capable of losing to Hawaii, would we be considered a playoff team.

In the end, I just don't think the extra game would be worth it's weight in perception.

Disagree. Not to mention, we could make money and get more recruits by playing the game.

But again... I made all of these points already.

 

[IrishLion]

I was tempted to say, "I'll do a naked lap, just like Jimmy, if ND decides to end the season at Hawaii just to have an extra game in the books."

But I don't want that Naked-Lap juju out in the universe.

 

[greyhammer90]

This argument is silly. By the time ND would schedule something like this the playoff will have expanded to 8 teams. If ND can't get in with 8 slots an extra win against an inferior opponent wouldn't help 99.999% of the time.

 

[Cackalacky]

I have weighed in before on this but not playing 13 games will be an negative issue for ND. I can't see how it won't. It' was already an issue during the BCS period.

 

[ACamp1900]

Just join the ACC and take Navy with us... Seriously.

 

[IrishLion]

Just join the ACC and take Navy with us... Seriously.

Hopefully, if the playoff ever expands to 8, that won't need to happen. 5 conference champs in the playoff, plus 3 at-large teams. Once the conference champs and their 13 game schedules are accounted for, ND will be competing with conference champ losers (where the extra game won't matter, since they lost it) and at-large squads that only played 12 games as well.

 

[Cali_domer]

Just join the ACC and take Navy with us... Seriously.

I wonder what the split is within the fanbase in regards to this issue.
I wanted to start a poll thread but I don’t know how to do it(opps).
I wonder what the numbers would look like.

 

[ickythump1225]

I wonder what the split is within the fanbase in regards to this issue.
I wanted to start a poll thread but I don’t know how to do it(opps).
I wonder what the numbers would look like.

I'm against joining a conference unless it comes clear that we can't make the playoffs without joining. I enjoy our independent status and our ability to schedule unique and interesting match ups all over the country.

 

[Black Irish]

I'm against joining a conference unless it comes clear that we can't make the playoffs without joining. I enjoy our independent status and our ability to schedule unique and interesting match ups all over the country.

What he said.

OR, Notre Dame cold somehow get out of its ACC affiliation, join the Big 12 on the condition that they take Navy as part of the deal. That way, we preserve that annual game, we give the Big 12 an actual 12 teams therefore creating a conference championship game that the Irish can compete for every year. Then ND becomes the team that saves the Big 12 in the playoff era, still play Navy, and the Irish play a more competitive slate of teams every year as opposed to what the ACC would serve up. You're welcome, Jack Swarbrick.

 

[Rhode Irish]

Ah yes, New Orleans. Where the streets are lined with trash and have the distinct smell of rotting citrus, grain alcohol and urine. Alleys are utilized as a place to push all the trash into to clear the street (seriously). Oh, and LSU fans. And the "Super"Dome.

Been there, done that; pass.



Now a game in Hot-lanta on the other hand... maybe Tampa.. I could get behind.

Sorry I am late to this party, but did you suggest that Atlanta and Tampa are better cities to visit than New Orleans? Sir, I find this idea offensive. Atlanta and Tampa are about as boring of cities as you could be expected to find anywhere on this earth. No character, no grittiness, no culture, at least that anyone would want to travel to be a part of. New Orleans, on the other hand, is one of my top 5 cities in North America to visit (the others: New York, Chicago, Montreal and San Francisco). New Orleans is a great American city.

 

[phork]

Atlanta has the Walking Dead....

 

[ND NYC]

if only the Jets would have built a (retractable dome) stadium on the current hudson yards site on the west dide of manahattan.
could have been the premier destination for any and all big/worldwide sprting events.
superbowl, NC game, WC finals, concerts, final 4's etc.
everything you could imagine, in the best city in the world...and since it would have been the Jets home, the playoffs and afc champ game would always be open for other events.

 

[OrlaNDomer]

Atlanta and Tampa are great locations for recruiting and ease of travel, but New Orleans is a party city for events just like the Shamrock Series. IMO it is a great city to visit, maybe not live there, but to each his own.

 

[Buster Bluth]

Considering ND will be traveling to Georgia Tech as part if the ACC deal, and has a series with Georgia scheduled, I doubt Atlanta is an option.

I want New Orleans, Houston, Cleveland.

 

[IrishLion]

I want New Orleans, Houston, Cincinnati.

FIFY.

 

[NoJusticeNoPeace]

We don't need to play in Ohio.

 

[NoJusticeNoPeace]

I would bet pretty much 1 out of every 3 Shamrock Series will be in Texas. I'd fill in the rest with cool places to visit and other recruiting hotspots. Playing in San Diego, Atlanta, New Orleans, Orlando, DC, and maybe even places like Denver and Seattle would cover the recruiting hotbeds while places like Chicago, NYC, Hawaii, and overseas would be cooler places to visit as a trip.

 

[BobbyMac]

Game 1: Rice &Tulane Alternate by year, Home and Home (1 for 2), only play at NFL stadiums on the road. Puts you in Houston and New Orleans for recruiting. Game 1 slot is always a home game so on years where ND travels to Nola or Houston, the Game 2 teams open in South Bend and the Rice / Tulane game is played Week 2

Game 2: Vandy & SMU (or TCU once Patterson leaves) Same theory as Game 1. Puts you in Tennessee and DFW for recruiting. Play at pro stadiums as much as possible.

Game 3: Marquee Home and Home Series game. Georgia, A&M, MSU, Michigan in the future. Would like to see a series with Mizzou added with games played at pro stadiums in St, Louis and Chicago, same thing for a series with Penn St to be played in Pittsburgh or Cleveland or both.

Game 4: Shamrock Series: Set rotation of stadiums and teams to play. This is about recruiting outside the ACC's footprint, not great match-ups. All games played in pro stadiums

List of cities:

San Antonio (play Army, Air Force, New Mexico)

New Orleans (on years when not playing at Tulane... Play La Tech, Houston or some team that would like to travel there for obvious reasons like a Kansas or Iowas State.

Phoenix: BYU, Utah, Utah St. San Diego St, UNLV, New Mexico

San Diego: Same as Phoenix plus Fresno and San Jose St.

OC / LA as soon as the pro stadium(s) are built. Same teams as Phoenix and San Diego but you can schedule anyone in the country to play in front of those recruits.

St. Louis: To play Mizzou only. Lots of good Cathlics in St. Louis.

Chicago and Indy: Good for the local fans and to work in Northwestern and Purdue one a decade.

Bye

Game 5: USC or Stanford on the road. ALWAYS make the Cali guys play in the weather at the end of the year.

Game 6: ACC #1

Game 7: ACC #2

Game 8: ACC #3

Game 9: ACC #4

Game 10: Navy. Road games rotated between Baltimore, Washington or San Diego pro stadiums.

Bye

Game 11: ACC #5

Game 12: USC or Stanford Always at home. Play in the cold.

Game 12 alternate: Anaheim Series at Anaheim Stadium after baseball is done. This could be the Shamrock if you can find a team to take the spot. It would be the best place in the country to play in front of nearby recruits. The Trinity and Mission Catholic Leagues are within 30 minutes in each direction plus Corona, Long Beach, Mission Viejo are allright there.

.