To be fair, those states produce more talent than Indiana on the whole.
And we have won a higher percentage of head to head battles for Indiana kids who have attracted interest from the big Midwest powers then they have against us.
What Indiana player have we wanted badly that got away to one of them? Maybe David Perkins if you can even count him? We beat at least 2 out of 3 of the big guys for Gunner Kiel, Sheldon Day, Jaylon Smith, and Josh Barajas.
We've also had some nice OH wins in Shaun Crawford, Elijah Taylor, Nick Coleman (OSU was going to offer at their camp evidently) Jimmy Byrne, Daniel Cage, DeShone Kizer, and Malik Zaire and a couple MI wins in Steve Elmer and Jhonathon Williams. Throw in other Midwest neutral state wins like Miles Boykin, Nyles Morgan, Nic Weishar, Colin McGovern, James Onwaulu, and Davaris Daniels and we have done pretty well against those guys head to head recently.
I agree that it would be a swing and a miss on ND's recruiting behalf if they miss on Bilal, but he would be one of a few key misses that we have had in comparison to a good amount of big wins (not to mention taking two younger brothers of Urban players away from him, including the most talented player on our 2014 roster as well as a key younger brother from Michigan).
The wins of Jaylon, Day, Daniels, Barajas, Crawford, Elmer, Zaire, McGovern / Byrne, Taylor and Boykin mean and are going to mean a lot more than some of the key losses, including Bilal if he does in fact chose Michigan over us. The only head to head losses to the Midwest three that have really disappointed me are Hilliard, Dante Booker, Ezekial Elliott, and Michael Ferns.