It's horrible. Someone on ISD put one up a while ago, same with 247. Horrible rate of decommits, horrible rate of flameouts, and the success stories, like Niklas, almost all come with a disclaimer.
After debating this on end, I've amended my stance to be more "if you're going to recruit California, you have to treat each commitment as if they're not going to sign, and recruit contingency plans accordingly."
Is Luatua high risk? Yep. Did we recruit a contingency plan? Yep, a very good one. This was well executed.
Was Dickerson high risk? Not on the surface, but #California. Did we recruit a contingency plan? NO. Thank God we snagged Mokwuah and Cage late. This was not well executed, but we did OK with our scramble.
You just cannot recruit California and take their pledges at face value. There are exceptions for sure, and I think Barnett is probably one, but otherwise every pledge from the Golden State needs to be treated as a luxury NOT a need filler.