'11 GA DE Stephon Tuitt (Signed Notre Dame LOI)

[stlnd01]

Lots of players come back and get a degree after/during the nfl. Clausen did it

Sure. And I hope Tuitt does. But life happens. Also we've got a pretty small sample size in recent years (Did Golden Tate graduate from ND? Thought I remember something about him taking classes at Tennessee. No idea if he finished them. Kyle Rudolph? Darius Walker?)

As Lax said, I don't think there's a top-flight player under Kelly who's come back for a fourth year and hasn't benefited from it. Probably a lot depends on his current draft stock. If he's top ten (which I've seen), then I'd agree it doesn't make much sense. But if he's much below that (which I've also seen), he's certainly talented enough to climb higher - and earn significantly more in the process - with a good season next year.

 

[Kaneyoufeelit]

I'm holding you to this.

Good.

I wish IE had a function like Twitter where you could schedule posts/tweets. That would make it so much easier to do

 

[Grahambo]

Lots of players come back and get a degree after/during the nfl. Clausen did it

Maybe Clausen was already out the door but I thought hiring BK and his up-tempo, spread offense kinda was the nail in that coffin?

 

[Irish To The Core]

If I were Tuitt I would come back after dropping 10 pounds in the off season. If he comes back in top shape he will improve his draft stock dramatically. Right now I think he will be lucky to crack the 1st round. He has played much better lately but he is noticeably slower at 220+ lbs. Work on quickness and get back to around the size he played at as a sophmore and he will go in the top ten.

 

[GoldenToTheGrave]

I'd bet on him coming back. Has a chance to tremendously improve his draft stock, much like Floyd and Eifert. Every single player who could've reasonably gone pro and instead came back for another year under Kelly has progressed , improved their draft stock, and made themselves a lot of money.

Right now he's probably staring at a mid first to an early second round pick. With a good season next year matching what he did in 2012 he'd be looking at an early first grade for sure.

Definitely agree. If he had a year similar to what he did for the begining of 2012, he would have probably been a top 15, possibly top 10 pick. Didn't show so much edge rushing ability like he did last year, which despite probably being a 3-4 DE teams are going to want to see to pick him in the 1st.

 

[cody1smith]

If I were Tuitt I would come back after dropping 10 pounds in the off season. If he comes back in top shape he will improve his draft stock dramatically. Right now I think he will be lucky to crack the 1st round. He has played much better lately but he is noticeably slower at 220+ lbs. Work on quickness and get back to around the size he played at as a sophmore and he will go in the top ten.

At 220 no way he goes first round. I would be willing to bet he does not even get drafted.

 

[Ultimate Penn St. Hater]

Lots of players come back and get a degree after/during the nfl. Clausen did it

I'm pretty sure every player who ever left ND early for the NFL came back and got his degree.

 

[stlnd01]

I'm pretty sure every player who ever left ND early for the NFL came back and got his degree.

Really? Every player ever? Do you have anything to back that up?

 

[TheTurningPoint]

Clausen would not have benefited from a year under BK. I think he would have done well, but his stock was high and somethings happened out of his control. Landing in Carolina was bad timing. Someone mentioned in the Rees thread that he was at ND at the right time, Clausen was in Carolina at the wrong time. haha.

If I was him, it would be a hard decision bc if he is truly healthy, he has enough time to get his body right for the combine and pro day. At the sametime, he could stay and have a healthy year at ND and sky rocket himself and end up with a degree in a year. Tough decision. I think he stay for his senior year when its all said and done.

 

[Buster Bluth]

Clausen would not have benefited from a year under BK. I think he would have done well, but his stock was high and somethings happened out of his control. Landing in Carolina was bad timing. Someone mentioned in the Rees thread that he was at ND at the right time, Clausen was in Carolina at the wrong time. haha.

If I was him, it would be a hard decision bc if he is truly healthy, he has enough time to get his body right for the combine and pro day. At the sametime, he could stay and have a healthy year at ND and sky rocket himself and end up with a degree in a year. Tough decision. I think he stay for his senior year when its all said and done.

I don't know, he would have owned every Notre Dame record and gone 10-2. That probably would have made him a top ten pick. He and Tate would have destroyed folks in a Brian Kelly offense.

 

[Spitfire]

Clausen would not have benefited from a year under BK. I think he would have done well, but his stock was high and somethings happened out of his control. Landing in Carolina was bad timing. Someone mentioned in the Rees thread that he was at ND at the right time, Clausen was in Carolina at the wrong time. haha.

If I was him, it would be a hard decision bc if he is truly healthy, he has enough time to get his body right for the combine and pro day. At the sametime, he could stay and have a healthy year at ND and sky rocket himself and end up with a degree in a year. Tough decision. I think he stay for his senior year when its all said and done.

Honest question; Outside of Clowney and Barr, is there another defensive player in the draft you would take over Stephon Tuitt? I don't think there is and because of that I still think he would be a top 10 pick. Guy's with his size, athleticism, and versatility are rare.

 

[IrishSteelhead]

Mosley, Clinton-Dix, Nix, and Sutton are all projected higher off the top of my head projection wise.

 

[EuropeanDomer]

What is the difference in terms of money (guaranteed, signing bonus.. etc) between a first and second rounder? Because i think this is the key.

 

[returnofthemack]

I don't know, he would have owned every Notre Dame record and gone 10-2. That probably would have made him a top ten pick. He and Tate would have destroyed folks in a Brian Kelly offense.

True, but it wouldn't have helped him as far as the draft. One of his strengths was proficiency in a pro-style offense. He was coming off of a tremendous year and had a close relationship with Weis. Why stick around and learn a completely different offense when you could go first round in the NFL (like he was projected to)? I don't blame Clausen at all. And I won't blame Tuitt. If Nix leaves, he will be the new subject of constant double teams, his stats will drop, etc. If Tuitt's family isn't well off, as long as he gets a first-round grade, he should leave for sure. If he gets a second-round grade, he can lose weight and come back with a vengeance next year.

EDIT: Oh lord, he would have had Tate and Floyd. Clausen would have been godly in this offense. Especially with as much time as Kelly's offensive lines have given his QBs.

 

[TheTurningPoint]

I mean he could have put up gaudy numbers or he might have struggled. A 28:4 TD/int ratio isnt going to get any better with a new system.


Clowney
Barr
Mack
Verrett
Van Noy
Ekrpe-olumu
Jernigan
Mosley
Barr
Beasley
Dennard
Colvin

Are all guys that could go round 1. Im sure im missing a few and giving some guys higher praise, but theres a lot of good defensive talent in this class

 

[STLDomer]

Barr is so good he might get picked twice!!

 

[stlnd01]

What is the difference in terms of money (guaranteed, signing bonus.. etc) between a first and second rounder? Because i think this is the key.

Here's a few defensive linemen from last year for comparison sake (I believe the bonuses are the guaranteed portion of the contract, sometimes paid out over time, sometimes taken up front. But they're part of the full number either way.):

Early first:
Ziggy Ansah went fifth to the Lions and got 4 yr, $18.6M with a $11.9M signing bonus
Barkevious Mingo went sixth to the Browns and got 4 yr, $16M with a $10M bonus

Late first:
Sharrif Floyd went 23rd to the Vikings, got 4 yr, $8.1M with $4.25M bonus
Datone Jones went 26th to the Packers, got 4 yr, 7.7M with a $4M bonus

Early second
Tank Carradine went 40th to the 49ers and got 4 yr, $4.9M with a $1.9M bonus
Kawann Short went 44th to the Panthers and got 4 yr, $4.6M with a $1.7M bonus

There is an almost geometric pattern to these numbers, with a significant drop between top ten and late first, and then another significant drop between late first and early second.
Maybe I'm biased, but I think Tuitt's got top ten talent. If he's not projecting to the top ten, he stands to potentially make a lot more money by staying, plus he'll get his degree (and get to be a college student for another year, which for some kids is not a small thing).

 

[Ultimate Penn St. Hater]

Really? Every player ever? Do you have anything to back that up?

I don't, but I remember hearing that a few years ago. We don't have a ton who left early. I'm positive Rocket, Bettis, Tuck, Walker, and Clausen have their degrees. I can't remember the others who left early.

 

[rocket66]

Here's a few defensive linemen from last year for comparison sake (I believe the bonuses are the guaranteed portion of the contract, sometimes paid out over time, sometimes taken up front. But they're part of the full number either way.):

Early first:
Ziggy Ansah went fifth to the Lions and got 4 yr, $18.6M with a $11.9M signing bonus
Barkevious Mingo went sixth to the Browns and got 4 yr, $16M with a $10M bonus

Late first:
Sharrif Floyd went 23rd to the Vikings, got 4 yr, $8.1M with $4.25M bonus
Datone Jones went 26th to the Packers, got 4 yr, 7.7M with a $4M bonus

Early second
Tank Carradine went 40th to the 49ers and got 4 yr, $4.9M with a $1.9M bonus
Kawann Short went 44th to the Panthers and got 4 yr, $4.6M with a $1.7M bonus

There is an almost geometric pattern to these numbers, with a significant drop between top ten and late first, and then another significant drop between late first and early second.
Maybe I'm biased, but I think Tuitt's got top ten talent. If he's not projecting to the top ten, he stands to potentially make a lot more money by staying, plus he'll get his degree (and get to be a college student for another year, which for some kids is not a small thing).

Wow, excellent post and very eye opening. Totally agree that staying for one more year would probably make him a lot more money - along with getting him that degree. I would love to see a healthy Tuitt next year dominate into a top 10 pick. ND will have a shitload of preseason hype next year if Tuitt returns along with Golson.

 

[ThePiombino]

Total gut feeling, but I think he returns. There's unfinished business at ND on multiple levels and there is a good chance his draft grade will be low enough that improving it can be a selling point. Also, gotta love BK's recent history with seniors who chose to return over declaring for the draft. I also think Golson will honestly be a factor.

 

[TheTurningPoint]

Barr is so good he might get picked twice!!

Sorry.

 

[IrishLax]

Honest question; Outside of Clowney and Barr, is there another defensive player in the draft you would take over Stephon Tuitt? I don't think there is and because of that I still think he would be a top 10 pick. Guy's with his size, athleticism, and versatility are rare.

Yeah, there are a bunch of guys as listed... plus the other thing people aren't talking about is that with the crop of QBs coming out there is very little room in the early first this year regardless of talent.

At absolute best he's a mid-late first this year if someone likes his upside/2012. More likely than not he'd drop to 2nd round in this year's draft. If he comes back and puts up a big year, he'd likely be an early first round pick and make a lot of $$.

 

[NDohio]

Yeah, there are a bunch of guys as listed... plus the other thing people aren't talking about is that with the crop of QBs coming out there is very little room in the early first this year regardless of talent.

At absolute best he's a mid-late first this year if someone likes his upside/2012. More likely than not he'd drop to 2nd round in this year's draft. If he comes back and puts up a big year, he'd likely be an early first round pick and make a lot of $$.

I think this is a bigger factor than how many Defensive players there are in this draft.

Johnny Football
Teddy Bridgewater
Marcus Mariota
Aaron Murray
Derek Carr
Z Mettenberger
Tajh Boyd
AJ McCarron
Brett Hundley

Thats a ton of QBs that will be in this draft and they will take spots away for ST.

 

[GreenSox04]

another year to take a shot with Golson, earn that degree and make momma Tuitt proud, and a chance to increase his stock.


DUITT TUITT.

 

[Green Mountains]

Yeah, there are a bunch of guys as listed... plus the other thing people aren't talking about is that with the crop of QBs coming out there is very little room in the early first this year regardless of talent.

At absolute best he's a mid-late first this year if someone likes his upside/2012. More likely than not he'd drop to 2nd round in this year's draft. If he comes back and puts up a big year, he'd likely be an early first round pick and make a lot of $$.

One of the things we need to keep in mind is the "value" of the signing bonus. If there is enough money to change the kid's life, he needs to look very seriously at it. He can always spend 50k of his bonus and come back to finish is degree. But if he gets injured (destroys a knee), he doesn't have that 7 figure jump start to his life.

Marcus Lattimore (and Danny Spond) should never be far from a college football player's mind when considering his NFL options.

If Stephon is graded as a high 2nd rounder in 2013, what's the cost of an insurance policy to replace the $1.5 m to $2.0 m bonus if he has a career ending injury during 2014 while staying in college? This cost should then be compared to the odds of moving up to receive a $4 m to $8 m bonus if he can improve his draft status in 2014. If the cost of the insurance isn't prohibitive, it's probably worth staying.

If however, he is graded as a mid to late first rounder..... take the cash. Put some away to pay for the remainder of your education, and move on. Staying isn't worth the injury risk in my opinion.

And, yes, I think this is a pure business decision at this point.

 

[rtrn2glory]

only a few instances where i remember him absolutely dominating a game this year.

last year it seemed like it was every week.

i think he has a good argument for whatever he decides

 

[Spitfire]

Yeah, there are a bunch of guys as listed... plus the other thing people aren't talking about is that with the crop of QBs coming out there is very little room in the early first this year regardless of talent.

At absolute best he's a mid-late first this year if someone likes his upside/2012. More likely than not he'd drop to 2nd round in this year's draft. If he comes back and puts up a big year, he'd likely be an early first round pick and make a lot of $$.

I think a lot of these projections of him as a late 1st/early 2nd round pick are just completely off base and were made during the first part of the season as he was working his way back into playing form. ESPN Scouts Inc currently has him listed as the #13 overall prospect in the draft and I would bet by the time the draft process plays out he would go top 10. There are at least half a dozen teams picking in the top 12 that are going to be looking for serious help along the defensive line and Tuitt's rare measurables and production are as good or better than almost anyone in the draft including Clowney. The fact that he can play in any scheme only increases his value at the next level.

 

[IrishLax]

One of the things we need to keep in mind is the "value" of the signing bonus. If there is enough money to change the kid's life, he needs to look very seriously at it. He can always spend 50k of his bonus and come back to finish is degree. But if he gets injured (destroys a knee), he doesn't have that 7 figure jump start to his life.

Marcus Lattimore should never be far from a college football players mind when considering his NFL options:

If Stephon is graded as a high 2nd rounder in 2013, what's the cost of an insurance policy to replace the $1 m to $1.5 m bonus if he has a career ending injury during 2014 while staying in college? This cost should then be compared to the odds of moving up to receive a $2 m to $4 m bonus if he can improve his draft status in 2014. If the cost of the insurance isn't prohibitive, it's probably worth staying.

If however, he is graded as a mid to late first rounder..... take the cash. Put some away to pay for the remainder of your education, and move on. Staying isn't worth the injury risk in my opinion.

With all due respect, that's why they have the insurance policies against catastrophic injury. And he's also a power player. You can make a case for taking the bird in hand now, but there's very little doubt that, like every player since Kelly has been here that has opted to come back for an extra year when they could've gone pro as a 2nd-3rd round guy a year early, betting on himself could drastically improve his guaranteed up front money and draft position. If he plays anything close to how he did as a sophomore then he'd likely be a top 10 pick.

 

[Green Mountains]

With all due respect, that's why they have the insurance policies against catastrophic injury. And he's also a power player. You can make a case for taking the bird in hand now, but there's very little doubt that, like every player since Kelly has been here that has opted to come back for an extra year when they could've gone pro as a 2nd-3rd round guy a year early, betting on himself could drastically improve his guaranteed up front money and draft position. If he plays anything close to how he did as a sophomore then he'd likely be a top 10 pick.

I think we agree. If he has a reasonable opportunity to move up from the 2nd round to top 10 in 2014, it's likely worth the cost of the insurance. However, if he is graded in the first round, that's a much tougher decision with the cost / benefit being less clear.

I have no idea what the policy would cost, and that would factor in as well.

 

[Irish#1]

From his tweet, I think he's leaning toward's coming back. If he wasn't coming back I think his post would be more along the line of "getting ready for my last game in an Irish uni".