'14 CA WR Erik Brown (Cal Verbal)

[Ndaccountant]

I don't understand why we're not giving him the green light to commit. We're not going to fill up at signing day (again).

Juju is trending away
Mama has been heavily trending away since he left campus
Elam is gone
Lazard is all but guaranteed to stay with ISU
Quick has some academic issues (I believe) and is leaning towards OU
Luatua keeps pushing his timeline back (and that concerns me)

I hope he becomes a "take" soon before he gets comfortable with another school.

Dead on.

Take him now and worry about the numbers later.

 

[arrowryan]

We've seen this movie before and it usually doesn't end well

 

[IrishLax]

I don't understand why we're not giving him the green light to commit. We're not going to fill up at signing day (again).

Juju is trending away
Mama has been heavily trending away since he left campus
Elam is gone
Lazard is all but guaranteed to stay with ISU
Quick has some academic issues (I believe) and is leaning towards OU
Luatua keeps pushing his timeline back (and that concerns me)

I hope he becomes a "take" soon before he gets comfortable with another school.

Agreed. There's a lot in the recruiting this year (and basically every year) that doesn't make sense. And this year, it really seems to be trending poorly down the home stretch. Reminds me of 2012 where it has a chance to be such an amazing class and then almost overnight turns into "oh god... let's just keep as many people on board as we can..."

It looks like we'll end up taking 4 "bodies" on defense. Hendrix, Sykes, Hill (hopefully) and probably one more... maybe Tranquill. Then we have about ~4 spots for offense. If we miss on Quick and McKenzie, then we're stuck looking at... who? Why not take Brown? Why not recruit Dallis Todd earlier in the class?

I'm also worried that Luatua is going to end up being our Da'Shawn Hand... but I'll hold out hope for now that everyone's confidence is not misplaced.

 

[Emcee77]

I can see both points of view on this, but it might be that the staff's thinking is that if we get Quick (and some people still seem to feel pretty confident about Quick), then Brown's scholarship would be much better used to fill a need at another position. We just don't need both Quick and Brown when we have some other glaring needs ... but, even assuming Quick does commit to ND, we could still conceivably take Brown in a best-available situation as we get closer to signing day if other targeted prospects commit elsewhere and fall off the board.

 

[Rack Em]

I can see both points of view on this, but it might be that the staff's thinking is that if we get Quick (and some people still seem to feel pretty confident about Quick), then Brown's scholarship would be much better used to fill a need at another position. We just don't need both Quick and Brown when we have some other glaring needs ... but, even assuming Quick does commit to ND, we could still conceivably take Brown in a best-available situation as we get closer to signing day if other targeted prospects commit elsewhere and fall off the board.

I don't see anyway we fill up even if Quick does commit.

 

[PerthDomer]

Maybe we just have a ton of WRs and the coaches don't want to go too heavy in that direction? If you're taking bodies to take bodies I'd focus on DL and LBs.

 

[rocket66]

Reminds me of the Westerkamp situation. It's going to be too late when the staff finally decides they want him. I don't get it.

 

[Rack Em]

Maybe we just have a ton of WRs and the coaches don't want to go too heavy in that direction? If you're taking bodies to take bodies I'd focus on DL and LBs.

I agree. But I don't trust this staff enough to close out the cycle and fill up if we just focus on DL and LBs. There will still be spots left. There always are. Every single year BK and co. extend offers to 5th years that otherwise would not get them. Sometimes that pays dividends and sometimes it's basically a gift to the player.

I do agree that we have a sufficient number of WRs, but God dammit we need to start camp in the summer with 85 players.

 

[Whiskeyjack]

Maybe we just have a ton of WRs and the coaches don't want to go too heavy in that direction? If you're taking bodies to take bodies I'd focus on DL and LBs.

That's the only plausible explanation I can see. Assuming Brent, Holmes and Watkins all stick, we're projected to have at least 7/8 WRs and 7/8 CBs heading into 2014 (lots of quality there, too). We also have 5Y options at both positions that the staff may prefer to Brown.

Our apparent inability to maintain a full roster frustrates me as much as anyone, but there's got to be something we're not seeing here.

 

[irishff1014]

Agreed. There's a lot in the recruiting this year (and basically every year) that doesn't make sense. And this year, it really seems to be trending poorly down the home stretch. Reminds me of 2012 where it has a chance to be such an amazing class and then almost overnight turns into "oh god... let's just keep as many people on board as we can..."

It looks like we'll end up taking 4 "bodies" on defense. Hendrix, Sykes, Hill (hopefully) and probably one more... maybe Tranquill. Then we have about ~4 spots for offense. If we miss on Quick and McKenzie, then we're stuck looking at... who? Why not take Brown? Why not recruit Dallis Todd earlier in the class?

I'm also worried that Luatua is going to end up being our Da'Shawn Hand... but I'll hold out hope for now that everyone's confidence is not misplaced.

Your so negative

Nice post Lax.

 

[Rack Em]

That's the only plausible explanation I can see. Assuming Brent, Holmes and Watkins all stick, we're projected to have at least 7/8 WRs and 7/8 CBs heading into 2014 (lots of quality there, too). We also have 5Y options at both positions that the staff may prefer to Brown.

Our apparent inability to maintain a full roster frustrates me as much as anyone, but there's got to be something we're not seeing here.

According to your spreadsheet the 5Y options for WR/CB are:
1) Luke Massa
2) Lo Wood
3) Austin Collinsworth

I really, really, really hope that Brown's upside is greater than Massa's 4 year contributions on the field.

 

[irishff1014]

According to your spreadsheet the 5Y options for WR/CB are:
1) Luke Massa
2) Lo Wood
3) Austin Collinsworth

I really, really, really hope that Brown's upside is greater than Massa's 4 year contributions on the field.

But he has experience. Is what they will say.

 

[OlympiaIrishFan]

Take as many of these guys as you can, there will be numbers falling away--they do every single year. I wish we had more DT's. That is going to be a HUUUUUGGGEEE issue for us.

But, there will be transfers--happens every single year. There will be huge medical issues---happens every year. Take all 25, we will need them.

 

[Emcee77]

I don't see anyway we fill up even if Quick does commit.

Really? If everybody sticks we have 10 spots left for incoming frosh and 5Ys (at least according to BGI's math).

Aspirational recruits still on the board:
Juju, Mama, Luatua (hopefully better than aspirational, but like others I'm a little worried that he hasn't committed yet), Nyles Morgan, Matt Elam, Lorenzo Carter, Quick, McKenzie (depends on academics).

Lower-tier offered recruits we have a good chance with:
Sykes, Hill, Hendrix, Tranquill

5Y locks:
Lombard, Moore (due to depth), Hendrix (same, assuming he wants to come back, and I think he will if offered; he has said he would)

Potential 5Ys:
Collinsworth, Lo Wood, Alex Welch, Justin Utupo, Luke Massa
(I don't think it's worth including Nix and Heggie)

Out of all those names, I definitely think we could get to 10 guys the staff thinks it needs more than Erik Brown, considering the depth at his position(s). Obviously it depends in part on how highly the staff regards Brown as a prospect and what its positional priorities are. I'm not ruling anything out, mind you ... I could see it shaking out a lot of different ways, and I think the staff does too, which is why it's recruiting him.

 

[Rack Em]

Really? If everybody sticks we have 10 spots left for incoming frosh and 5Ys (at least according to BGI's math).

Aspirational recruits still on the board:
Juju, Mama, Luatua (hopefully better than aspirational, but like others I'm a little worried that he hasn't committed yet), Nyles Morgan, Matt Elam, Lorenzo Carter, Quick, McKenzie (depends on academics).

Lower-tier offered recruits we have a good chance with:
Sykes, Hill, Hendrix, Tranquill

5Y locks:
Lombard, Moore (due to depth), Hendrix (same, assuming he wants to come back, and I think he will if offered; he has said he would)

Potential 5Ys:
Collinsworth, Lo Wood, Alex Welch, Justin Utupo, Luke Massa
(I don't think it's worth including Nix and Heggie)

Out of all those names, I definitely think we could get to 10 guys the staff thinks it needs more than Erik Brown, considering the depth at his position(s). Not ruling anything out, mind you ... I could see it shaking out a lot of different ways, and I think the staff does too, which is why it's recruiting him.

Yeah I really do. Sykes and Hendrix are the only recruits I feel good about right now. Look at the staff's history down the stretch when we have X number of spots for new recruits. We usually end up with X-2 or X-3 recruits. We just never seem to get a full class to the point we have to really debate which 5Y's are coming back.

 

[PANDFAN]

Really? If everybody sticks we have 10 spots left for incoming frosh and 5Ys (at least according to BGI's math).

Aspirational recruits still on the board:
Juju, Mama, Luatua (hopefully better than aspirational, but like others I'm a little worried that he hasn't committed yet), Nyles Morgan, Matt Elam, Lorenzo Carter, Quick, McKenzie (depends on academics).

Lower-tier offered recruits we have a good chance with:
Sykes, Hill, Hendrix, Tranquill

5Y locks:
Lombard, Moore (due to depth), Hendrix (same, assuming he wants to come back, and I think he will if offered; he has said he would)

Potential 5Ys:
Collinsworth, Lo Wood, Alex Welch, Justin Utupo, Luke Massa
(I don't think it's worth including Nix and Heggie)

Out of all those names, I definitely think we could get to 10 guys the staff thinks it needs more than Erik Brown, considering the depth at his position(s). Obviously it depends in part on how highly the staff regards Brown as a prospect and what its positional priorities are. I'm not ruling anything out, mind you ... I could see it shaking out a lot of different ways, and I think the staff does too, which is why it's recruiting him.

i think this is the issue...he isn't a difference maker or specialist

 

[Irish#1]

I understand that we might not fill up, but there is always that possibility, even if it's slim. So given that scenario, let me ask this. Is Kelly under direction from Jack or the board not to offer a prospect if there is a chance they have to withdraw it? See where I'm coming from?

 

[phork]

Maybe its time to hit the Dantonio school of recruiting and coaching up. We need bodies regardless of star rating.

 

[IrishLax]

Really? If everybody sticks we have 10 spots left for incoming frosh and 5Ys (at least according to BGI's math).

Aspirational recruits still on the board:
Juju, Mama, Luatua (hopefully better than aspirational, but like others I'm a little worried that he hasn't committed yet), Nyles Morgan, Matt Elam, Lorenzo Carter, Quick, McKenzie (depends on academics).

Lower-tier offered recruits we have a good chance with:
Sykes, Hill, Hendrix, Tranquill

5Y locks:
Lombard, Moore (due to depth), Hendrix (same, assuming he wants to come back, and I think he will if offered; he has said he would)

Potential 5Ys:
Collinsworth, Lo Wood, Alex Welch, Justin Utupo, Luke Massa
(I don't think it's worth including Nix and Heggie)

Out of all those names, I definitely think we could get to 10 guys the staff thinks it needs more than Erik Brown, considering the depth at his position(s). Obviously it depends in part on how highly the staff regards Brown as a prospect and what its positional priorities are. I'm not ruling anything out, mind you ... I could see it shaking out a lot of different ways, and I think the staff does too, which is why it's recruiting him.

Of the people you listed, only likely to get maybe 2 of the "aspirational" recruits. At most 4, and that would require some serious black magic. Then we could get all 4 of the others. Makes 6.

+4 5Y in Collinsworth, Lombard, Moore, Hendrix. I guess that "fills us up" if math is accurate. Alternatively, if Tuitt leaves or anything else funky happens we're going to have multiple spots left.

 

[Emcee77]

Of the people you listed, only likely to get maybe 2 of the "aspirational" recruits. At most 4, and that would require some serious black magic. Then we could get all 4 of the others. Makes 6.

+4 5Y in Collinsworth, Lombard, Moore, Hendrix. I guess that "fills us up" if math is accurate. Alternatively, if Tuitt leaves or anything else funky happens we're going to have multiple spots left.

This is pretty much exactly how I see the situation, except that I think Utupo has got to come back just due to lack of experienced depth there, depending on the health of guys like Springmann and Hounshell. Utupo is still undersized for DE but at least he's been in the system for a while and can show younger guys the ropes. But yeah, I assume 2ish aspirational recruits, 4ish others, and 4ish 5Ys.

I think Brown's a borderline case since, as PAND put it, he's not a specialist or a position of need, which is why the staff is doing what it's doing: maintaining contact without giving Brown the green light.

But I also get what people are saying: no matter how much you try to rationalize it, we ALWAYS seem to have extra spots due to unforeseen circumstances. It's frustrating that we can't just oversign to protect ourselves, but that's what makes us ND.

 

[Whiskeyjack]

According to your spreadsheet the 5Y options for WR/CB are:
1) Luke Massa
2) Lo Wood
3) Austin Collinsworth

I really, really, really hope that Brown's upside is greater than Massa's 4 year contributions on the field.

We've got a lot of talent at WR and CB. It's possible they see Brown as a depth guy, and that they'd rather bring back Massa for 1 year than carry Brown for 4. Massa's our holder, and his experience at QB gives us some tricky options on ST. Depending on what happens with Hendrix, he may also be the closest thing we have to a veteran QB next year.

Not advocating for Massa > Brown, but there's probably more to this decision than we've discussed so far.

 

[Rack Em]

We've got a lot of talent at WR and CB. It's possible they see Brown as a depth guy, and that they'd rather bring back Massa for 1 year than carry Brown for 4. Massa's our holder, and his experience at QB gives us some tricky options on ST. Depending on what happens with Hendrix, he may also be the closest thing we have to a veteran QB next year.

Not advocating for Massa > Brown, but there's probably more to this decision than we've discussed so far.

Eh I can't get on board with that.

 

[Emcee77]

We've got a lot of talent at WR and CB. It's possible they see Brown as a depth guy, and that they'd rather bring back Massa for 1 year than carry Brown for 4. Massa's our holder, and his experience at QB gives us some tricky options on ST. Depending on what happens with Hendrix, he may also be the closest thing we have to a veteran QB next year.

Not advocating for Massa > Brown, but there's probably more to this decision than we've discussed so far.

Good points, especially the bolded. If Hendrix doesn't come back for some reason (not that I expect him to turn down a 5th year if offered), then I think we have to bring Massa back as a 4th QB.

 

[irishff1014]

Of the people you listed, only likely to get maybe 2 of the "aspirational" recruits. At most 4, and that would require some serious black magic. Then we could get all 4 of the others. Makes 6.

+4 5Y in Collinsworth, Lombard, Moore, Hendrix. I guess that "fills us up" if math is accurate. Alternatively, if Tuitt leaves or anything else funky happens we're going to have multiple spots left.

Hendrix is there by default he doesn't deserve it.

 

[irishog77]

We've got a lot of talent at WR and CB. It's possible they see Brown as a depth guy, and that they'd rather bring back Massa for 1 year than carry Brown for 4. Massa's our holder, and his experience at QB gives us some tricky options on ST. Depending on what happens with Hendrix, he may also be the closest thing we have to a veteran QB next year.

Not advocating for Massa > Brown, but there's probably more to this decision than we've discussed so far.

I'll be honest, if the staff feels they need to bring back a holder and/or a guy who actually does NOT provide depth (he didn't get any reps as a FR when he was actually a QB...nor has he in the 3 ensuing years as a WR) for a POTENTIAL 4th string job...then this staff and program are in way worse shape than any of us currently realize.

 

[rtrn2glory]

this kid might be keivarae 2.0...i agree if he wants in sign him up.

 

[Whiskeyjack]

I'll be honest, if the staff feels they need to bring back a holder and/or a guy who actually does NOT provide depth (he didn't get any reps as a FR when he was actually a QB...nor has he in the 3 ensuing years as a WR) for a POTENTIAL 4th string job...then this staff and program are in way worse shape than any of us currently realize.

Forget Massa then. What if they prefer him at CB but think a 5Y for Wood is a better use of that scholarship for 2014? Then we start getting into DB projections for 2015, and all sorts of other roster management issues we can't even begin to speculate about.

 

[Emcee77]

I'll be honest, if the staff feels they need to bring back a holder and/or a guy who actually does NOT provide depth (he didn't get any reps as a FR when he was actually a QB...nor has he in the 3 ensuing years as a WR) for a POTENTIAL 4th string job...then this staff and program are in way worse shape than any of us currently realize.

Ha, you may be right. I know that Massa took practice reps this season as the emergency QB while Zaire was hurt, but I don't know how highly the staff regards him as a QB ... the coaches may think that Kinlaw or a walk-on is just as good as an emergency option. But the main point remains: it's hard to argue at this fairly early stage that there is no way the staff can use its 10 remaining scholarships in a way that would be better than giving one to Erik Brown. We just don't know enough to accurately forecast what 2014 recruits we will get or what personnel will be critical in the 2014 season and beyond.

 

[dwshade]

If we get Quick then I'm fine with passing on Brown. We're solid at WR going forward if Quick comes on board.

 

[irishog77]

Forget Massa then. What if they prefer him at CB but think a 5Y for Wood is a better use of that scholarship for 2014? Then we start getting into DB projections for 2015, and all sorts of other roster management issues we can't even begin to speculate about.

Yeah, now it's become a whole other issue then. That scenario could be certainly be feasible. You're right-- maybe the staff doesn't like him as being the 8th CB or WR. They may prefer a 5th year spot over him at that point. And then if they whiff on Quick, McKenzie, and have a transfer of a current player...THEN they'd like him.