BCS rankings 2013

[tko]

We just need to worry about beating Pitt.

My exact thoughts. One game at a time as they say and the rest will shake itself out.

 

[dublinirish]

a non BCS bowl game against a non BCS conference team would be a disaster :/

 

[IrishLax]

That's like saying a National Championship is irrelevant... sure they are the top two ranked teams, but if they only play once and it's a close game, do we "really" know who the champ should be?

That's really not the same thing at all though. The point is that head-to-head is irrelevant because weird crap can happen in any singular game. Does anyone think Utah is better than Stanford? No. Looking at head-to-head would tell you otherwise though. And then if you start extrapolating Utah>Stanford>ASU>USC>Utah... it all gets circular in a hurry. That's why it can't be applied consistently. Plus, as you said, teams change throughout the year so looking at one singular game as a snap shot of who is "better" doesn't compute.

 

[IrishLax]

OK. But I can make these counter-arguments:
1) Point differential is a crude stat biased against teams that win with defense.
2) Efficiency and advanced metrics are nice but frankly most voters don't pay attention to that stuff. Certainly not the voters who care about point differential.
3) We beat them. That matters. And that was really a ten-point game with a cheap score by them at the end.
4) Both our "best" wins are ranked ahead of either of theirs. And they were extremely lucky to beat Wisconsin.

1) It's also the vanilla stat with the best correlation to team strength/success.
2) I don't really see why how much some voters may/may not pay attention to statistics matters. We're talking about who is the better team. And all advanced (and vanilla) stats say ASU is superior.
3) It matters only the smallest bit, and it was a 3 point game before a pick-6 which they then got a score back on... so you can play both sides of that fence with ease. It's not a commanding win when you're having to defend an onside kick with time left.
4) Yes, but both our losses are worse than theirs.

Again, you basically have to pick and choose anecdotes to justify ND ahead of ASU. You simply have to look at who has been the stronger overall team on the field by all objective statistical measures to pick ASU.

In F/+ ASU is 6th, ND is 28th. And I doubt those rankings will be any better after they update post Navy.

 

[connor_in]

My 2 cents...

I would love to go to a BCS bowl and win. However, getting there now requires us to win out and with our injuries I really don't see that happening. I know we get some guys back but those will probably not be 100%, making it hard to get by Stanford. We may even have difficulty getting wins vs BYU and Pitt. Things just haven't fallen quite our way like last year. I am still proud of the guys' accomplishments though in what they have overcome.

 

[rocket66]

1) It's also the vanilla stat with the best correlation to team strength/success.
2) I don't really see why how much some voters may/may not pay attention to statistics matters. We're talking about who is the better team. And all advanced (and vanilla) stats say ASU is superior.
3) It matters only the smallest bit, and it was a 3 point game before a pick-6 which they then got a score back on... so you can play both sides of that fence with ease. It's not a commanding win when you're having to defend an onside kick with time left.
4) Yes, but both our losses are worse than theirs.

Again, you basically have to pick and choose anecdotes to justify ND ahead of ASU. You simply have to look at who has been the stronger overall team on the field by all objective statistical measures to pick ASU.

In F/+ ASU is 6th, ND is 28th. And I doubt those rankings will be any better after they update post Navy.

I get what you're saying, even though you've been quite negative towards the team this year for some reason. Call it honesty, or factual, but it's a little annoying either way. Is ASU better than ND? Maybe they win 5/10. ND had a relatively healthy defense in that game and owned their offensive line. ASU had no answer for that type of pressure and hadn't seen it all year, accept for maybe Stanford , which was their other loss. You like to use your "facts" when discrediting ND, but who exactly has ASU beaten? Their defense has given up a ton of points all year as well. There's just no way you can convince me they are a better team.

 

[IrishLax]

I get what you're saying, even though you've been quite negative towards the team this year for some reason. Call it honesty, or factual, but it's a little annoying either way. Is ASU better than ND? Maybe they win 5/10. ND had a relatively healthy defense in that game and owned their offensive line. ASU had no answer for that type of pressure and hadn't seen it all year, accept for maybe Stanford , which was their other loss. You like to use your "facts" when discrediting ND, but who exactly has ASU beaten? Their defense has given up a ton of points all year as well. There's just no way you can convince me they are a better team.

The funny thing is whenever I use stats or whatever else to, say, defend the strength of Tommy Rees or the running game... there is a whole different crop of people who take exception to that and find it "annoying" because it doesn't jive with their beliefs.

What I'm finding is people want to believe what they want to believe. It's mostly anecdotes or eye test or gut feelings, which is fine because that's basically how all pollsters vote and there is no "right" way to do it. I like to think of myself as a pragmatist who tries to give everyone as objective a shake as I can.

People who think ND is better than ASU tend to look at the Shamrock Series game as evidence that ND > ASU because they outplayed them at a neutral site. Fine. If they were the only two teams in college football, I would buy that. But when you're trying to sort 120+ FBS teams I just don't really think that's a pragmatic way to evaluate where teams should be slotted. This would be more apparent if there was more cross pollination like the NFL, but sadly there isn't. The Jets beat the Saints this week, after getting jail sexed last week 49-9 by Cinci, who turned around and lost this week to Miami... and the Dolphins recently got blown out by the Saints.

Head-to-head results just don't hold much water as a season progresses because teams change/injuries happen/every game is a unique singular experience. ASU, on the whole, is impressive. I'd slot them somewhere in the top 10 if I was doing power rankings. So would Vegas, who has said they'd be a favorite over Missouri on a neutral field.

Notre Dame, with all the injuries mounting, I'd probably slot somewhere between 23-28 in power rankings... and 18-25 on "resume"... so I just have a hard time being upset about ND being #23, or being ever so slightly behind the Sun Devils and ahead of the Badgers in the BCS standings.

 

[ickythump1225]

The funny thing is whenever I use stats or whatever else to, say, defend the strength of Tommy Rees or the running game... there is a whole different crop of people who take exception to that and find it "annoying" because it doesn't jive with their beliefs.

What I'm finding is people want to believe what they want to believe. It's mostly anecdotes or eye test or gut feelings, which is fine because that's basically how all pollsters vote and there is no "right" way to do it. I like to think of myself as a pragmatist who tries to give everyone as objective a shake as I can.

People who think ND is better than ASU tend to look at the Shamrock Series game as evidence that ND > ASU because they outplayed them at a neutral site. Fine. If they were the only two teams in college football, I would buy that. But when you're trying to sort 120+ FBS teams I just don't really think that's a pragmatic way to evaluate where teams should be slotted. This would be more apparent if there was more cross pollination like the NFL, but sadly there isn't. The Jets beat the Saints this week, after getting jail sexed last week 49-9 by Cinci, who turned around and lost this week to Miami... and the Dolphins recently got blown out by the Saints.

Head-to-head results just don't hold much water as a season progresses because teams change/injuries happen/every game is a unique singular experience. ASU, on the whole, is impressive. I'd slot them somewhere in the top 10 if I was doing power rankings. So would Vegas, who has said they'd be a favorite over Missouri on a neutral field.

Notre Dame, with all the injuries mounting, I'd probably slot somewhere between 23-28 in power rankings... and 18-25 on "resume"... so I just have a hard time being upset about ND being #23, or being ever so slightly behind the Sun Devils and ahead of the Badgers in the BCS standings.

And all of that is well and good...if I thought he pollsters were actually taking any of this into account. Instead what I believe their typical thought process is is something like this: "Hey look at all da purdy points ASU is scorin! Yay OFFENSE! Oh Notre Dame....they lost to 'Bama last year."

Also your point about head to head basically not mattering:

I can stomach MSU being ahead of us because they only have one loss but ASU? Come on now...since the pollsters obviously believe we're so close our head to head victory on a neutral field should be enough to put us over them.

You're also missing a crucial distinction, where a team is ranked=/=how good they are. We should be ranked higher than ASU but that doesn't necessarily mean we are better than them. We beat them fair and square on a neutral field so there is that but just being ranked higher than a team doesn't mean you are necessarily better than them. I believe Oregon is better than FSU (who I believe they would jail rape if they played) and probably even better than Alabama but though I understand why Alabama is ranked higher (though the logic for FSU escapes me).

 

[rocket66]

The funny thing is whenever I use stats or whatever else to, say, defend the strength of Tommy Rees or the running game... there is a whole different crop of people who take exception to that and find it "annoying" because it doesn't jive with their beliefs.

What I'm finding is people want to believe what they want to believe. It's mostly anecdotes or eye test or gut feelings, which is fine because that's basically how all pollsters vote and there is no "right" way to do it. I like to think of myself as a pragmatist who tries to give everyone as objective a shake as I can.

People who think ND is better than ASU tend to look at the Shamrock Series game as evidence that ND > ASU because they outplayed them at a neutral site. Fine. If they were the only two teams in college football, I would buy that. But when you're trying to sort 120+ FBS teams I just don't really think that's a pragmatic way to evaluate where teams should be slotted. This would be more apparent if there was more cross pollination like the NFL, but sadly there isn't. The Jets beat the Saints this week, after getting jail sexed last week 49-9 by Cinci, who turned around and lost this week to Miami... and the Dolphins recently got blown out by the Saints.

Head-to-head results just don't hold much water as a season progresses because teams change/injuries happen/every game is a unique singular experience. ASU, on the whole, is impressive. I'd slot them somewhere in the top 10 if I was doing power rankings. So would Vegas, who has said they'd be a favorite over Missouri on a neutral field.

Notre Dame, with all the injuries mounting, I'd probably slot somewhere between 23-28 in power rankings... and 18-25 on "resume"... so I just have a hard time being upset about ND being #23, or being ever so slightly behind the Sun Devils and ahead of the Badgers in the BCS standings.

Fair enough, but I still think you're giving ASU a lot of credit for beating some marginal teams. Ive seen you discredit Stanford a ton this season and pre season for the same reasons you're crediting ASU. Your points for both teams are conflicting to me.
I wholly feel ND's offense had their way with that defense and also made Kelly more uncomfortable than he's been all season. I think ND presented the perfect nightmare matchup for ASU - and that wouldn't change much no matter how many times they would play.

 

[ickythump1225]

That's really not the same thing at all though. The point is that head-to-head is irrelevant because weird crap can happen in any singular game. Does anyone think Utah is better than Stanford? No. Looking at head-to-head would tell you otherwise though. And then if you start extrapolating Utah>Stanford>ASU>USC>Utah... it all gets circular in a hurry. That's why it can't be applied consistently. Plus, as you said, teams change throughout the year so looking at one singular game as a snap shot of who is "better" doesn't compute.

Yes but Stanford only has that one loss and Utah has sucked the whole rest of the season so no one would seriously ever entertain the idea that Utah is better than Stanford! You know that's BS, I know it's BS, everyone knows that's BS so stop wasting our time with that inane argument.

You act like ND only has one win all year and that just happened to be against ASU, like it was some dumb or random luck that led us to victory. We have the SAME F**KING RECORD as them! We outplayed them on a neutral field and beat them. And really we've played more games than them so we really have more wins than them right now. We've also played a difficult schedule so far...it's not like we've SEC'd it and had a steady diet of FCS cup cakes to inflate our record. I just don't buy your argument at all.

 

[phork]

Lax, you can't argue with some people bro. Just like some people defending holding Navy to 330 yards rushing.

I have said it before but it bears repeating. If you aren't in the National Championship then you aren't in a bowl that anyone cares about. Bowl matchups are decided by who can put butts in the stands, period. Thats why you get crap like UM vs VT in 2011. I am happy ND is going bowling because it gets some extra practices in. Do I want this team in a BCS bowl with all the injuries we have sustained? Hell no. With the current projected teams headed there I can't say we would be favoured to beat any of them.

End the year with a nice solid victory, lick the wounds and get ready for next year when hopefully Golson returns.

 

[ThePiombino]

For everyone who is so matter-of-factly stating that if ND wins out, we're in (BCS):

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p>At No. 23, ND must jump nine places for at-large selection. Among teams ranked in the Week 11 BCS Top 25 last year, no team managed that.</p>— Irish Illustrated (@NDatRivals) <a href="https://twitter.com/NDatRivals/statuses/397183086367997953">November 4, 2013</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Sure about that? It's clear we're not gonna get the respect in the humans polls (where it's most needed based on the BCS formula). I think we need to start accepting the fact that there is a very real chance we win out and still find ourselves NOT in a BCS game.

 

[BobD]

How would you guys rank the top 10? Heres mine. I think Oregon would rip the sh!t out of all of them and sadly I don't think right now I'd bet on us against any of them in a bowl game.

1. Oregon
2. Florida State
3. Alabama
4. Ohio state
5. Missouri
6. Auburn
7. Clemson
8. Stanford
9. Baylor
10. Oklahoma

 

[PANDFAN]

How would you guys rank the top 10? Heres mine. I think Oregon would rip the sh!t out of all of them and sadly I don't think right now I'd bet on us against any of them in a bowl game.

1. Oregon
2. Florida State
3. Alabama
4. Ohio state
5. Missouri
6. Auburn
7. Clemson
8. Stanford
9. Baylor
10. Oklahoma

i would have no problem facing these teams...we will get our chance w/ stanford...okl-i think we win that matchup if we play again...missouri doesn't do anything for me although mauk seems to be pretty d@mn good, and auburn is good but i would play them

 

[IrishLax]

Yes but Stanford only has that one loss and Utah has sucked the whole rest of the season so no one would seriously ever entertain the idea that Utah is better than Stanford! You know that's BS, I know it's BS, everyone knows that's BS so stop wasting our time with that inane argument.

You act like ND only has one win all year and that just happened to be against ASU, like it was some dumb or random luck that led us to victory. We have the SAME F**KING RECORD as them! We outplayed them on a neutral field and beat them. And really we've played more games than them so we really have more wins than them right now. We've also played a difficult schedule so far...it's not like we've SEC'd it and had a steady diet of FCS cup cakes to inflate our record. I just don't buy your argument at all.

This. Is. The. Whole. Point.

You're not evaluating teams in a vacuum. You're filling out a ballot that tries to weigh everyone collectively against each other.

Looking at the collective pool... Arizona State has the ~10th ranked SOS and is 6-2 with better point differential, advanced stats, vanilla stats, and better losses. Notre Dame has the ~28th ranked SOS and is 7-2 with better top wins. Who would you slot higher relative to all of college football?

Then explain to me, if you're just looking at the teams close to ND (basically teams 20-30) with 2 losses, how you'd logically work in head-to-head as a discriminator when Michigan beat ND beat ASU beat Wisconsin?

 

[stlnd01]

How would you guys rank the top 10? Heres mine. I think Oregon would rip the sh!t out of all of them and sadly I don't think right now I'd bet on us against any of them in a bowl game.

1. Oregon
2. Florida State
3. Alabama
4. Ohio state
5. Missouri
6. Auburn
7. Clemson
8. Stanford
9. Baylor
10. Oklahoma

Alabama (Sorry. In my book they're #1 until proven otherwise)
FSU
Oregon (I will say I haven't seen them play much. Is their D as good as the scores say it is? If so...)
Ohio State
Clemson
Stanford
Baylor (until they play someone they stay behind the two best one-loss teams)
Auburn
Mizzou
Oklahoma

I think we'd beat Mizzou. I think we could have beaten Oklahoma and could beat them again. If we're healthy I think we'll give Stanford a tough game. I like to think we could take Ohio State.

 

[stlnd01]

This. Is. The. Whole. Point.

You're not evaluating teams in a vacuum. You're filling out a ballot that tries to weigh everyone collectively against each other.

Looking at the collective pool... Arizona State has the ~10th ranked SOS and is 6-2 with better point differential, advanced stats, vanilla stats, and better losses. Notre Dame has the ~28th ranked SOS and is 7-2 with better top wins. Who would you slot higher relative to all of college football?

Then explain to me, if you're just looking at the teams close to ND (basically teams 20-30) with 2 losses, how you'd logically work in head-to-head as a discriminator when Michigan beat ND beat ASU beat Wisconsin?

Easy.

ND (beat ASU and has the best win of any of these teams. Has generally improved over course of the season.)
ASU (beat Wisconsin, has other impressive wins over mid-tier BCS conference teams)
Wisconsin (Has beat exactly no one but has done so in impressive fashion. Should have beat ASU if not for unconscionable referee screw-up)
Michigan (Beat ND early but has shat the bed ever since. ).
Texas Tech (I hate the Big 12)

Head-to-head is certainly not the only stat that matters. But when all else is roughly equal it's a pretty good tiebreaker. Certainly better than advanced-metrics/FEI/defensive efficiency blah-blah-blah. I get the arguments for ASU or Wisconsin over us, but I hardly think it's the slam-dunk case that you seem to.
Fact is, it's a 12-game season, not 8 or 9. A lot of this will play itself out between now and the first weekend of December. Until then it's a parlor game.

 

[irishfan]

For everyone who is so matter-of-factly stating that if ND wins out, we're in (BCS):

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p>At No. 23, ND must jump nine places for at-large selection. Among teams ranked in the Week 11 BCS Top 25 last year, no team managed that.</p>— Irish Illustrated (@NDatRivals) <a href="https://twitter.com/NDatRivals/statuses/397183086367997953">November 4, 2013</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Sure about that? It's clear we're not gonna get the respect in the humans polls (where it's most needed based on the BCS formula). I think we need to start accepting the fact that there is a very real chance we win out and still find ourselves NOT in a BCS game.

Well, here is my response to that: In the last 5 years, every single BCS/AQ team that went 10-2 finished in the Top 14 with the exception of Louisville last year. If we go 10-2, we'll be in the Top 14.

 

[cody1smith]

Alabama (Sorry. In my book they're #1 until proven otherwise)
FSU
Oregon (I will say I haven't seen them play much. Is their D as good as the scores say it is? If so...)
Ohio State
Clemson
Stanford
Baylor (until they play someone they stay behind the two best one-loss teams)
Auburn
Mizzou
Oklahoma

I think we'd beat Mizzou. I think we could have beaten Oklahoma and could beat them again. If we're healthy I think we'll give Stanford a tough game. I like to think we could take Ohio State.

No way we beat Mizzou. And i HATE them more than anyone on this board. Mizzou beats us by 3 scores 9 out of 10 times. With that said i hope they loose out and prove me wrong.

 

[BobD]

i would have no problem facing these teams...we will get our chance w/ stanford...okl-i think we win that matchup if we play again...missouri doesn't do anything for me although mauk seems to be pretty d@mn good, and auburn is good but i would play them

I'd have no problem facing any of them, I just don't like our chances right now especially with the injuries. There are two different Notre Dame teams for me, the one in my mind where we're always number one, but then there's the one in reality where I think we're no better than MAYBE number 15.

I want a team to be confident in, not a team where I have to hope for things go our way. I don't know if it'll ever happen, but I can hope.

 

[kmoose]

ASU (beat Wisconsin, has other impressive wins over mid-tier BCS conference teams)
Wisconsin (Has beat exactly no one but has done so in impressive fashion. Should have beat ASU if not for unconscionable referee screw-up)

I'm not on either side of this debate, but I will say this:

you can't give ASU credit for beating Wisconsin, and then in the next point give Wisconsin credit because they should have won the ASU game.

 

[philipm31]

I'm not on either side of this debate, but I will say this:

you can't give ASU credit for beating Wisconsin, and then in the next point give Wisconsin credit because they should have won the ASU game.

BINGO.

The same can be said that one of ND's quality wins is USC but it is NOT a quality win for ASU??


Circular reasoning abounds in this type of argument, sadly.

 

[TheSunIsRising]

For everyone who is so matter-of-factly stating that if ND wins out, we're in (BCS):

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p>At No. 23, ND must jump nine places for at-large selection. Among teams ranked in the Week 11 BCS Top 25 last year, no team managed that.</p>— Irish Illustrated (@NDatRivals) <a href="https://twitter.com/NDatRivals/statuses/397183086367997953">November 4, 2013</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Sure about that? It's clear we're not gonna get the respect in the humans polls (where it's most needed based on the BCS formula). I think we need to start accepting the fact that there is a very real chance we win out and still find ourselves NOT in a BCS game.

While no team did jump that much last year, Stanford did jump 8 spots from #14 to #6 during that time period

-In 2011, Wisconsin jumped 8 spots from week 11 to the final poll

-In 2010, Oklahoma jumped 9 spots from #16 to #7; A&M jumped 8 spots; Virginia Tech jumped 7 spots

So it is possible, but it requires winning out obviously, plus a bunch of chaos amongst the teams ahead of them. Based on the current Top 5-22, the following are the future notable opponents:

5)Stanford: Oregon/USC/Cal (not great but rivalry)/ND (they lose to ND and one other, they are outside the top 15)
6)Baylor: Oklahoma/TTU/Ok St/TCU/Texas (not an easy roadmap for them; easily 2 losses there, or they take out 2 teams ahead of us OK St and Oklahoma)
7)Clemson: Georgia Tech/South Carolina (decent chance for at least one loss)
8)Mizzu: Ole Miss/A&M, and if they make it thru the Conf Champ game against Bama (at least one loss here)
9)Auburn: Tennessee/Georgia/Bama (at least one loss; Tenn not great but game is there)
10)Oklahoma: Baylor/Ok St (either knock Baylor down, or fall out of top 15)
11)Miami: Duke/Pitt (not likely)/Conf Champ against FSU to get raped again
12)South Carolina: Florida/Clemson/possibly Conf Champ depending on Mizzu loss
13)LSU: Bama/A&M (lose to Bama; either knock down A&M or fall outside top 20)
14)OK St: Texas/Baylor/Oklahoma (either knock down Baylor and/or Okla, or fall way out themselves; wouldn't doubt Texas beating them)
15)A&M: LSU/Mizzu (could easily have one more loss here; even if they don't they will knock out two teams ahead of us)
16)Fresno St: San Jose St/?Conf Champ against likely Boise St (go Blue turfers!!!)
17)MSU: Nebraska/Minny/Conf Championship against OSU (very possible for 1 more loss)
18)NIU: Ball St/Toledo/?Conf Championship (lose one of these, please)
19)UCLA: Arizona/Washington/Az St/USC/?Conf Champ if they make it thru that (easily one more loss)
20)Louisville: Houston (go Greenberry??)/Cincy (I don't think Louisville are great, so thinking they lose one more)
21)UCF: Houston/Rutgers (they may not lose again, but Houston can score)
22)Az St: @Utah/Oregon St/UCLA/Zona/?Conf Champ if they make it thru that (one more loss, at least, likely)

There is definitely going to be carnage ahead of ND. I could see how a jump into the top 14 can happen. Teams above them that I expect to fall behind ND:
-Stanford (assuming loss to ND + Oregon or USC or Champ game)
-at least one of Baylor, Oklahoma, OK St
-Mizzu or A&M
-Miami
-LSU and/or A&M
-UCLA
-Arizona St

That is at least 7

Other possibilities:
-either Clemson or South Carolina
-Louisville
-Auburn
-one more of Baylor, Oklahoma, OK St
-NIU or Fresno St

So, passing 9 is definitely a realistic possibility given the tough roads that teams ahead of them have, but this is all predicated on ND winning out, which isn't a slam dunk.

The bigger issue is that one of NIU/Fresno St get an AQ spot if they stay ahead of the AAC champ, which is currently a real possibility. That means 7 of 10 spots are spoken for, and ND not only needs to be in the Top 14, but need to hope that the BCS bowls pick them against some likely highly ranked other at-large teams. Either of Oregon/Bama/OSU losing a tight conference championship game would really hurt ND's chances of a BCS spot, even in the Top 14.

 

[NDhoosier]

No way we beat Mizzou. And i HATE them more than anyone on this board. Mizzou beats us by 3 scores 9 out of 10 times. With that said i hope they loose out and prove me wrong.

Highly doubt it. I think ND would win 6 out of 10 times and all ten games would be close games.

 

[ND NYC]

for now its:
take care of our own business
root vs NIU and Fresno
hope Stanford contiues to remain at 5 or higher and that we beat them

the rest will take care of itself.

 

[Kaneyoufeelit]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-partner="tweetdeck"><p>According to ESPN, Ohio State has played the 88th toughest schedule this season. Who’s at 89? Oregon. <a href="http://t.co/OfEXMOaxFt">http://t.co/OfEXMOaxFt</a></p>— Tom Fornelli (@TomFornelli) <a href="https://twitter.com/TomFornelli/statuses/397407433288470528">November 4, 2013</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-partner="tweetdeck"><p>Using that same ESPN ranking, Northern Illinois has played 121st toughest schedule this year. Fresno State’s is 125th.</p>— Tom Fornelli (@TomFornelli) <a href="https://twitter.com/TomFornelli/statuses/397410386414026752">November 4, 2013</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

 

[Rack Em]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-partner="tweetdeck"><p>According to ESPN, Ohio State has played the 88th toughest schedule this season. Who’s at 89? Oregon. <a href="http://t.co/OfEXMOaxFt">http://t.co/OfEXMOaxFt</a></p>— Tom Fornelli (@TomFornelli) <a href="https://twitter.com/TomFornelli/statuses/397407433288470528">November 4, 2013</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Oregon still has to play Stanford though. So that'll help their SOS.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-partner="tweetdeck"><p>Using that same ESPN ranking, Northern Illinois has played 121st toughest schedule this year. Fresno State’s is 125th.</p>— Tom Fornelli (@TomFornelli) <a href="https://twitter.com/TomFornelli/statuses/397410386414026752">November 4, 2013</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

LOLZ. Two teams that don't belong in a BCS game. Somebody please beat them.

 

[phgreek]

While no team did jump that much last year, Stanford did jump 8 spots from #14 to #6 during that time period

-In 2011, Wisconsin jumped 8 spots from week 11 to the final poll

-In 2010, Oklahoma jumped 9 spots from #16 to #7; A&M jumped 8 spots; Virginia Tech jumped 7 spots

So it is possible, but it requires winning out obviously, plus a bunch of chaos amongst the teams ahead of them. Based on the current Top 5-22, the following are the future notable opponents:

5)Stanford: Oregon/USC/Cal (not great but rivalry)/ND (they lose to ND and one other, they are outside the top 15)
6)Baylor: Oklahoma/TTU/Ok St/TCU/Texas (not an easy roadmap for them; easily 2 losses there, or they take out 2 teams ahead of us OK St and Oklahoma)
7)Clemson: Georgia Tech/South Carolina (decent chance for at least one loss)
8)Mizzu: Ole Miss/A&M, and if they make it thru the Conf Champ game against Bama (at least one loss here)
9)Auburn: Tennessee/Georgia/Bama (at least one loss; Tenn not great but game is there)
10)Oklahoma: Baylor/Ok St (either knock Baylor down, or fall out of top 15)
11)Miami: Duke/Pitt (not likely)/Conf Champ against FSU to get raped again
12)South Carolina: Florida/Clemson/possibly Conf Champ depending on Mizzu loss
13)LSU: Bama/A&M (lose to Bama; either knock down A&M or fall outside top 20)
14)OK St: Texas/Baylor/Oklahoma (either knock down Baylor and/or Okla, or fall way out themselves; wouldn't doubt Texas beating them)
15)A&M: LSU/Mizzu (could easily have one more loss here; even if they don't they will knock out two teams ahead of us)
16)Fresno St: San Jose St/?Conf Champ against likely Boise St (go Blue turfers!!!)
17)MSU: Nebraska/Minny/Conf Championship against OSU (very possible for 1 more loss)
18)NIU: Ball St/Toledo/?Conf Championship (lose one of these, please)
19)UCLA: Arizona/Washington/Az St/USC/?Conf Champ if they make it thru that (easily one more loss)
20)Louisville: Houston (go Greenberry??)/Cincy (I don't think Louisville are great, so thinking they lose one more)
21)UCF: Houston/Rutgers (they may not lose again, but Houston can score)
22)Az St: @Utah/Oregon St/UCLA/Zona/?Conf Champ if they make it thru that (one more loss, at least, likely)

There is definitely going to be carnage ahead of ND. I could see how a jump into the top 14 can happen. Teams above them that I expect to fall behind ND:
-Stanford (assuming loss to ND + Oregon or USC or Champ game)
-at least one of Baylor, Oklahoma, OK St
-Mizzu or A&M
-Miami
-LSU and/or A&M
-UCLA
-Arizona St

That is at least 7

Other possibilities:
-either Clemson or South Carolina
-Louisville
-Auburn
-one more of Baylor, Oklahoma, OK St
-NIU or Fresno St

So, passing 9 is definitely a realistic possibility given the tough roads that teams ahead of them have, but this is all predicated on ND winning out, which isn't a slam dunk.

The bigger issue is that one of NIU/Fresno St get an AQ spot if they stay ahead of the AAC champ, which is currently a real possibility. That means 7 of 10 spots are spoken for, and ND not only needs to be in the Top 14, but need to hope that the BCS bowls pick them against some likely highly ranked other at-large teams. Either of Oregon/Bama/OSU losing a tight conference championship game would really hurt ND's chances of a BCS spot, even in the Top 14.

I like this view of things...

just looking at odds of slots opening and human nature...I think there is serious resistance to "upward mobility" that has you leap from way outside the top 10 into the top 10...probably less resistance to have you jump a bunch of slots that has you finish still outside the top 10...

I think 14 is achievable...I'd like more style points in the next two games to help the human polls, as well as some fortuitous losses to NIU et al.

 

[Black Irish]

Does Stanford have to stay in the top five for an Irish win against them to put us in a BCS bowl? Is there that big of a difference between ND being 10-2 against 11-1 Stanford versus 10-2 against 10-2 Stanford (especially if that loss is to #2-#3 Oregon). Ultimately, I want what's best for the Irish. But I'd really like to see an Alabama-Oregon title game and I'd also like to see Stanford take one more loss to soften them up for ND. What I'm saying is, not only do I want to have my cake and eat it, too, I also want it served to me by lingerie models.

 

[Me2SouthBend]

For everyone who is so matter-of-factly stating that if ND wins out, we're in (BCS):

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p>At No. 23, ND must jump nine places for at-large selection. Among teams ranked in the Week 11 BCS Top 25 last year, no team managed that.</p>— Irish Illustrated (@NDatRivals) <a href="https://twitter.com/NDatRivals/statuses/397183086367997953">November 4, 2013</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Sure about that? It's clear we're not gonna get the respect in the humans polls (where it's most needed based on the BCS formula). I think we need to start accepting the fact that there is a very real chance we win out and still find ourselves NOT in a BCS game.

But who amongst last years teams finished the year w victories over 3 Div 1 opponents (at this point in the season), 1 of which is ranked number 5 and did it on their home field.