Post Game Observations....

peoriairish

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I generally stay away from this thread after games, but here is an amazing stat brought up on power hour today. If it's posted already, someone let me know and I'll take it down. But here goes:

Notre Dame had 30 first down plays on Saturday. Of these 30 play, 23 were passing and 7 running. Of the 23 passes, 12 were incomplete resulting in 2nd and 10. On the 7 running plays, they averaged 8.3 yards per carry and were never worse than 2nd and 6.

I just thought that was amazing. Run. The. Damn. Ball.
 

MJ12666

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I generally stay away from this thread after games, but here is an amazing stat brought up on power hour today. If it's posted already, someone let me know and I'll take it down. But here goes:

Notre Dame had 30 first down plays on Saturday. Of these 30 play, 23 were passing and 7 running. Of the 23 passes, 12 were incomplete resulting in 2nd and 10. On the 7 running plays, they averaged 8.3 yards per carry and were never worse than 2nd and 6.

I just thought that was amazing. Run. The. Damn. Ball.

Stats can be a little deceiving. ND initially came out in an attempt to establish the run and that resulted in two three and outs. You would really need to look at when they ran on first. The runs may have occurred during drives where Rees completed some passes down-field and the defense was playing pass. I am not saying this was the case, but I never felt while watching the game that ND's offensive line was dominating Michigan in the sense that they could just line up and consistently run the ball effectively.

With that being said, I also wish that they would run the ball as I believe it would help with their red zone issues.
 

peoriairish

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Stats can be a little deceiving. ND initially came out in an attempt to establish the run and that resulted in two three and outs. You would really need to look at when they ran on first. The runs may have occurred during drives where Rees completed some passes down-field and the defense was playing pass. I am not saying this was the case, but I never felt while watching the game that ND's offensive line was dominating Michigan in the sense that they could just line up and consistently run the ball effectively.

With that being said, I also wish that they would run the ball as I believe it would help with their red zone issues.

51 passing attempts from Tommy and only 1 sack says we did. Also, if you go back and watch the game, our OL held a pocket for just about the whole second half. It was impressive.
 

Gauss

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51 passing attempts from Tommy and only 1 sack says we did. Also, if you go back and watch the game, our OL held a pocket for just about the whole second half. It was impressive.
Of course, pass blocking is somewhat different from run blocking. Pregame, we heard much the same report about Michigan - strong against the run, but struggles with the pass rush.
 

IrishLion

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I generally stay away from this thread after games, but here is an amazing stat brought up on power hour today. If it's posted already, someone let me know and I'll take it down. But here goes:

Notre Dame had 30 first down plays on Saturday. Of these 30 play, 23 were passing and 7 running. Of the 23 passes, 12 were incomplete resulting in 2nd and 10. On the 7 running plays, they averaged 8.3 yards per carry and were never worse than 2nd and 6.

I just thought that was amazing. Run. The. Damn. Ball.

Same response as the other thread: Amir may have been gashing Michigan up the middle on the run, but how many of those first-down passing attempts were a result of Tommy checking to a pass against a loaded box?
 

peoriairish

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Same response as the other thread: Amir may have been gashing Michigan up the middle on the run, but how many of those first-down passing attempts were a result of Tommy checking to a pass against a loaded box?

This is a good point. I plan on rewatching the game this week. Maybe tomorrow. I'll try to keep track of that.
 

Irishman77

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Same response as the other thread: Amir may have been gashing Michigan up the middle on the run, but how many of those first-down passing attempts were a result of Tommy checking to a pass against a loaded box?

So with a loaded box he was still under 50%?
 

Irishman77

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I generally stay away from this thread after games, but here is an amazing stat brought up on power hour today. If it's posted already, someone let me know and I'll take it down. But here goes:

Notre Dame had 30 first down plays on Saturday. Of these 30 play, 23 were passing and 7 running. Of the 23 passes, 12 were incomplete resulting in 2nd and 10. On the 7 running plays, they averaged 8.3 yards per carry and were never worse than 2nd and 6.

I just thought that was amazing. Run. The. Damn. Ball.

Yes! Our OL is our strength.
 

Whiskeyjack

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FEI game splits for week 2:

Game Splits data on these pages are a function of all possessions in FBS vs. FBS games in the given season, excluding first-half clock kills and end-of-game garbage drives and scores. Game Splits represent the scoring margin components of a game, the value contributed to the margin of victory or defeat.

The value contributed by the offense (Off), defense (Def), and special teams (ST) units, plus the value of an extra possession (Ex) if applicable, adds up to the non-garbage scoring margin of the game (NG Final). The value of field position (FP) and turnovers (TO) is provided for each game as well.
<table style="color: rgb(38, 38, 38); font-family: Arial,Helvetica,Geneva,sans-serif; font-size: 12px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 21.5938px; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" height="109" width="544"><tbody><tr><td style="background-color: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial;" align="left">Team</td><td valign="top">
</td><td valign="top">
</td><td valign="top">
</td><td valign="top">
</td><td valign="top">
</td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial;" align="center">Wk</td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial;" align="left">Opponent</td><td valign="top">
</td><td valign="top">
</td><td valign="top">
</td><td valign="top">
</td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial;" align="center">Final</td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial;" align="center">NG Final</td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial;" align="right">Off</td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial;" align="right">Def</td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial;" align="right">ST</td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial;" align="right">Ex</td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial;">
</td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial;" align="right">FP</td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial;" align="right">TO</td></tr><tr><td style="background-color: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial;" align="left">Notre Dame</td><td valign="top">
</td><td valign="top">
</td><td valign="top">
</td><td valign="top">
</td><td valign="top">
</td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial;" align="center">1</td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial;" align="left">Temple</td><td valign="top">
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</td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial;" align="center">W 28-6</td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial;" align="center">W 28-6</td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial;" align="right">22.4</td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial;" align="right">0.8</td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial;" align="right">0.7</td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial;" align="right">-1.9</td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial;">
</td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial;" align="right">-2.5</td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial;" align="right">0.0</td></tr><tr><td style="background-color: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial;" align="left">Notre Dame</td><td valign="top">
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</td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial;" align="center">2</td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial;" align="left">Michigan</td><td valign="top">
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</td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial;" align="center">L 30-41</td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial;" align="center">L 30-41</td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial;" align="right">0.7</td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial;" align="right">-17.0</td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial;" align="right">3.5</td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial;" align="right">1.9</td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial;">
</td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial;" align="right">8.1</td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial;" align="right">-4.8</td></tr><tr><td style="background-color: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial;" align="left">Total</td><td valign="top">
</td><td valign="top">
</td><td valign="top">
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</td><td valign="top">
</td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial;">
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</td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial;">
</td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial;">
</td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial;" align="right">23.1</td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial;" align="right">-16.3</td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial;" align="right">4.2</td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial;" align="right">0.0</td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial;">
</td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial;" align="right">5.6</td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial;" align="right">-4.8</td></tr></tbody></table>
<table style="color: rgb(38, 38, 38); font-family: Arial,Helvetica,Geneva,sans-serif; font-size: 12px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 21.5938px; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" height="86" width="1"><tbody><tr><td valign="top">
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Freeman Ara

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I think you need to watch both games again. ND does not have a "power" running game. In both games I do not believe that they were able to convert any third and short via the run. Now I could be wrong; but I distinctly remember them being stopped by Temple on a third and two and I believe in the second Michigan series it was third and three, they ran, and did not come close to getting the first. Teams that have a "power" running game can convert but ND doesn't seem to be able to do this, at least on a consistent basis. That is not to say they can't run. If they spread the field and create space they run very efficiently. I also think this is their problem in scoring TD's. I can't remember the last time against a reasonably decent opponent when they got a first and goal, and simply ran the ball in for a TD.

Looked at the drive charts and through the first 2 games: 4/7 on 3rd down and 3 or less when running. We can run the ball we just don't stay with it.
 
C

Cackalacky

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FEI game splits for week 2:

<table style="color: rgb(38, 38, 38); font-family: Arial,Helvetica,Geneva,sans-serif; font-size: 12px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 21.5938px; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" height="109" width="544"><tbody><tr><td style="background-color: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial;" align="left">Team</td><td valign="top">
</td><td valign="top">
</td><td valign="top">
</td><td valign="top">
</td><td valign="top">
</td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial;" align="center">Wk</td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial;" align="left">Opponent</td><td valign="top">
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</td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial;" align="center">Final</td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial;" align="center">NG Final</td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial;" align="right">Off</td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial;" align="right">Def</td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial;" align="right">ST</td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial;" align="right">Ex</td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial;">
</td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial;" align="right">FP</td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial;" align="right">TO</td></tr><tr><td style="background-color: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial;" align="left">Notre Dame</td><td valign="top">
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</td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial;" align="center">1</td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial;" align="left">Temple</td><td valign="top">
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</td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial;" align="center">W 28-6</td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial;" align="center">W 28-6</td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial;" align="right">22.4</td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial;" align="right">0.8</td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial;" align="right">0.7</td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial;" align="right">-1.9</td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial;">
</td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial;" align="right">-2.5</td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial;" align="right">0.0</td></tr><tr><td style="background-color: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial;" align="left">Notre Dame</td><td valign="top">
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</td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial;" align="center">2</td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial;" align="left">Michigan</td><td valign="top">
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</td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial;" align="center">L 30-41</td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial;" align="center">L 30-41</td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial;" align="right">0.7</td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial;" align="right">-17.0</td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial;" align="right">3.5</td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial;" align="right">1.9</td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial;">
</td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial;" align="right">8.1</td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial;" align="right">-4.8</td></tr><tr><td style="background-color: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial;" align="left">Total</td><td valign="top">
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</td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial;" align="right">23.1</td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial;" align="right">-16.3</td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial;" align="right">4.2</td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial;" align="right">0.0</td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial;">
</td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial;" align="right">5.6</td><td style="background-color: transparent; border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial;" align="right">-4.8</td></tr></tbody></table>
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So if I am reading this correct in the Michigan game:
  1. Comparatively speaking, the ND offense had a negligible effect on the game;
  2. Our defense had a significantly negative effect on the game;
  3. ND had good field position;
  4. Special teams made a positive contribution;
  5. and turnovers as expected, negatively affected the game.
 
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Old Man Mike

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Whiskey's stats illustrate exactly what I felt I saw in these games.

And... I have very little confidence that the defense is going to rise to the level that I expected was a near-no-brainer prior to the actual playing of the games. This mere-OK-ness has been a huge disillusionment for me, and frankly I'm completely flummoxed by it.

All my hopes this year have been anchored upon what I've believed to be a kool-aid-less foundation: this defense will suffocate [Kelly even used this word] and almost no one will score much against us. My Kool-aid portion was "Tommy will be very good", and that at least seems to be panning out.

But my "quality-of-Life" has taken a hit, sadly. I had planned to be able to sit back and enjoy one of the greatest defenses in Notre Dame history play thirteen games this year, and say a grateful goodbye to Big Lou for the favor [I'll still do the latter as Lou is working harder than anyone out there]. Even if we lost a couple, watching Lou and the boys dominate would have been fun.

But somehow this has been screwed up, and I still, after all the commentary cannot see why. Coach Holtz slipped in a brief comment the other day on ESPN and let it drop. He said: The Notre Dame defensive staff needs help. It's not the personnel.

Ouch!

We're still good, and we'll still win a bunch of games [mainly due to Tommy and Kelly's flat-out genius at maximizing offensive advantages]. . But the Dream of the "great Defense" is gone, and I'm REALLY saddened by that.
 
K

koonja

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ND has a better Defense than Michigan, it's just that Gardner was the best player on the team, and sometimes that's enough for the less talented team to win.

I still think we have a top 10 defense. We had penetration all night and Gardner made Vince Young plays. Coverage was right, WRs made plays. Couple bad calls in the secondary really hurt, and Michigan could not run the ball on us.
 

Irishman77

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We have over complicated everything, especially on defense. Time to let the kids play...love Diaco, but I agree with Lou.
 

Old Man Mike

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Irishman: generally with you on your intent, but I'd "massage" the idea in a different direction. We haven't made things too "complicated" [except maybe for the safety pre-snap reads, which we seem not to be able to think fast enough on], but rather Diaco, the Perfect Clockmaker, has made things too rigid. I believe that he, or something else about his "ways", has not been able to get across the necessity for balancing your disciplined slavery to the Clock {System} vs your trust in your instincts to let your athleticism break out and rip it up.

Discipline [especially in "fits" responsibility] is absolutely required, but everybody needs to feel they have some free air to rock and roll [cut loose] and "make the play". I believe both the linebackers and the safeties are psychologically not in let's-just-play comfort zones about this. {I played a lot of basketball in my day. This psychology of rigid adherence to "system" vs letting the talent take over and abandon system [at the right time] made the difference between good players and might-have-beens.}

Obviously this isn't going on with our defense wholly one way vs another. It's a sliding scale. I just feel that we're a bit too much leaning to rigid rules [which inspires minor hesitation and usually end-products like no interceptions] and not enough "go get it". [I also do not think that our timing, and perhaps even our "geometry" on blitz packages is as well coached as it could be --- how, with Lou taking up at least two every play, and with the opposing tackles thoroughly involved with Day and Tuitt, can we not get there when we blitz TWO extra, let alone three? Shembo and Jaylon Smith plus a safety? Or Grace? What the heck is wrong?? [I got it with Temple --- that QB was great and winged it at a two to three count, but Gardner didn't always].



I apologize for the negativity, guys. I still think we'll probably win nine, then who knows about the bowl. The should-be great defense wins eleven, however, plus would be wildly entertaining, AND shut all negativists about our team up instantly. Now, we still have a lot of work to do.
 

Whiskeyjack

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So if I am reading this correct in the Michigan game:
  1. Comparatively speaking, the ND offense had a negligible effect on the game;
  2. Our defense had a significantly negative effect on the game;
  3. ND had good field position;
  4. Special teams made a positive contribution;
  5. and turnovers as expected, negatively affected the game.

When a unit's split is close to 0, I think it implies that they simply "did enough", or "pulled their own weight". I'd say that's a fair assessment of our offense against Michigan.

The defense's negative split is a reflection of their inability to stop Michigan (and this is also where a transcendent performance by an opposing QB shows up).

Field position was huge; an 8.1 point split is very significant. Which makes it all the more frustrating that we couldn't capitalize. Toss that in with our domination in the trenches as yet another reason we should have won that game.

And while the TOs hurt, this split shows that (on their own), they weren't as significant as we're inclined to believe. It was still the defense's inability to stop Gardner which contributed the most to our loss.
 

Whiskeyjack

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I apologize for the negativity, guys. I still think we'll probably win nine, then who knows about the bowl. The should-be great defense wins eleven, however, plus would be wildly entertaining, AND shut all negativists about our team up instantly. Now, we still have a lot of work to do.

I share your disappointment, OMM. All of our preseason predictions assumed that the defense would perform similarly to last year's unit, and even with the loss of Te'o, it seemed like a reasonable belief.

But we're not better. We've clearly taken a significant step back. And as you said, it's not the personnel. With Nix, Tuitt, and Shembo all in their final year, this is a rare opportunity to be dominant on defense. So I'm also inclined to believe that the problem is schematic (or more accurately, "systemic inflexibility").

If nothing changes, we'll be lucky to get to 9 wins; we just play too many good teams for this mysterious defensive malaise not to bite us several more times. And a BCS bowl looks like a long shot now.

On a related note, I don't really care about winning a title in the near future; all I want is, for once, to end a season on an undeniably positive note. No fading down the stretch, no getting smoked in a bowl game, and no scandals. Is that too much to ask? I thought this would be that year; 10-2 with a BCS bowl win. No longer.
 
C

Cackalacky

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When a unit's split is close to 0, I think it implies that they simply "did enough", or "pulled their own weight". I'd say that's a fair assessment of our offense against Michigan.

The defense's negative split is a reflection of their inability to stop Michigan (and this is also where a transcendent performance by an opposing QB shows up).

Field position was huge; an 8.1 point split is very significant. Which makes it all the more frustrating that we couldn't capitalize. Toss that in with our domination in the trenches as yet another reason we should have won that game.

And while the TOs hurt, this split shows that (on their own), they weren't as significant as we're inclined to believe. It was still the defense's inability to stop Gardner which contributed the most to our loss.

Overall that is a compelling analysis (now that I have cooled down). I was unsure of how to interpret the negative defensive split (whether the D stunk or UM's O was "transcendent" as you put it). Definitely puts things into a proper perspective.

I happened to also look at the UGA and So.Car game that was also a 40-31 game. The splits you provided told a much different game even though the score was the same.

So cool.
 

Emcee77

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I share your disappointment, OMM. All of our preseason predictions assumed that the defense would perform similarly to last year's unit, and even with the loss of Te'o, it seemed like a reasonable belief.

But we're not better. We've clearly taken a significant step back. And as you said, it's not the personnel. With Nix, Tuitt, and Shembo all in their final year, this is a rare opportunity to be dominant on defense. So I'm also inclined to believe that the problem is schematic (or more accurately, "systemic inflexibility").

If nothing changes, we'll be lucky to get to 9 wins; we just play too many good teams for this mysterious defensive malaise not to bite us several more times. And a BCS bowl looks like a long shot now.

I'm a bit more optimistic than this. I mean, I agree to a certain extent that Michigan torched our D despite the fact that our defense executed its game plan more or less as it was drawn up. The plan was apparently to get pressure on Gardner and force mistakes; Kelly has frequently said in pressers that our defensive philosophy is to force an opposing team to execute perfectly or lose. Well, Gardner executed perfectly. He delivered passes with a pass rusher in his face, often taking hits, and the passes were so accurate that his receivers were able to catch them even when our corners were right on the coverage. That definitely troubles me a bit, but I still think that just isn't going to happen that often. Most QBs just can't do that.

More importantly, we can still stop a QB who is executing perfectly if our entire defense executes perfectly, but that didn't happen Saturday night. Kelly has already acknowledged in today's presser that he needs better safety play. We lost an experienced senior at that position, and, as we all know from watching Motta as a sophomore, experience is critical at safety. Shumate was really bad on Saturday, I thought. Often out of position ... and that's going to happen with a young safety. Even Collinsworth isn't THAT experienced at safety, although he's played a lot of special teams. Same with Farley ... yeah he's a returning starter, but he was a scout team WR the year before last. So I'm not ready to say that the problem with our defense is basically schematic. I'd like to think that with better safety play we could have done a better job of stopping Gardner.

On a related note, I don't really care about winning a title in the near future; all I want is, for once, to end a season on an undeniably positive note. No fading down the stretch, no getting smoked in a bowl game, and no scandals. Is that too much to ask? I thought this would be that year; 10-2 with a BCS bowl win. No longer.

Totally agree on this. More than going 10-2 and playing in a BCS game, I just want to beat a quality opponent in the bowl game. 8-4, 9-3, whatever. If, as in 2011, we go to the Champs Sports Bowl and play a program on the rise, like FSU that year, I'll be pretty happy as long as we win the game.
 
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tadman95

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On a related note, I don't really care about winning a title in the near future; all I want is, for once, to end a season on an undeniably positive note. No fading down the stretch, no getting smoked in a bowl game, and no scandals. Is that too much to ask? I thought this would be that year; 10-2 with a BCS bowl win. No longer.

Absolutely this!!!!!
 

phork

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On a related note, I don't really care about winning a title in the near future; all I want is, for once, to end a season on an undeniably positive note. No fading down the stretch, no getting smoked in a bowl game, and no scandals. Is that too much to ask? I thought this would be that year; 10-2 with a BCS bowl win. No longer.

Don't be so negative!
 

Whiskeyjack

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OFD's Larz just published a film breakdown on how our front seven and defensive backfield have been out of sync:

Last year the pieces of the Notre Dame defense complimented each other very well. The secondary was inexperienced and a potential liability so the defense was structured to protect the defensive backs. Notre Dame often used two deep safeties and relied on Manti Te'o to take care of short and medium passes over the middle. Te'o's presence meant that quarterbacks were reluctant to throw quick passes in the middle of the field. Therefore, they had to hold on to the ball longer. Which led to a more effective pass rush. This year the linebackers don't have the same range as Te'o, so the plan has changed. Instead of asking the linebackers to cover the middle of the field in passing situations, Notre Dame is blitzing them more frequently. With the linebackers blitzing, the secondary has the responsibility of taking away passes over the middle. So far, they haven't done a very good job with this responsibility. In fact, they've looked downright uncomfortable in man coverage. Right now, the front 7 is playing a style of defense that the secondary is unable to support. Thus, the defense is out of sync. Something needs to change to get the defense back on the same page and it needs to happen fast.

Very informative. I read a few schematic articles (for which I can't find links at the moment) before the title game discussing how crucial Te'o was to our 2012 defense. He simply locked down everything between the hash marks, which led to a very effective Cover-2 Zone and lots of coverage sacks from our excellent DL.

Now that Te'o's gone, Diaco has to choose between trusting the middle of the field to LBs who are weak in coverage, or blitzing said LBs and forcing our DBs into man coverage (which they weren't really asked to do last year). They're clearly uncomfortable in man coverage, which is part of the reason why Reilly and Gardner seemed super accurate-- our DBs are technically poor when asked to defend that way.

But it's probably a safe assumption that our LBs are even worse in zone, so I guess this is what we've got this season. Hopefully the coaching staff can get our defense back in sync by: (1) improving the technique of our DBs in man coverage; and (2) improving our blitz packages so our DBs aren't hung out to dry.

We're apparently running a totally different style of defense this year, and it shows. Time for the staff to earn their money.
 

BobD

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We lost.

If we discuss this until we're blue in the face and actually come up with the exact reason we lost.

We still lost.
 

GATTACA!

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eminemhigh_medium.gif

Gif of the year? This is kinda how I felt right after the game ended.
 

Whiskeyjack

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OFD's pburns2010 just published a film breakdown of the confusion in our secondary that led to UM's first TD:

A freshman linebacker making a mistake in coverage because he was trying to make a play is something that happens all the time on every college football field in the country. This type of mistake is precisely what Brian Kelly is talking about when he says that the Irish simply need to execute better. Diaco had a great playcall, had a check prepared for his defense to roll the coverage correctly, but one incorrect coverage and a blown tackle give up a huge chunk of yards and 7 points.

It will be interesting to see the secondary perform against both Purdue and Michigan State, two teams that shouldn't be able to capitalize on mistakes of execution as well as the Wolverines were able to. I expect to see a variety of coverages against the Boilermakers, both to confuse the quarterback, as well as put the test to the back end of our defense in the execution of all of our coverage schemes. Growing pains are fine, as long as we're growing -- Saturday is Notre Dame's chance to execute what it learned from the Michigan game, in a much less high pressure environment. Hopefully.

Definitely worth a read.
 

ulukinatme

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On a related note, I don't really care about winning a title in the near future; all I want is, for once, to end a season on an undeniably positive note. No fading down the stretch, no getting smoked in a bowl game, and no scandals. Is that too much to ask? I thought this would be that year; 10-2 with a BCS bowl win. No longer.

This is kind of how I feel, but I'm still optimistic we can pull out a 10-2 regular season and make a BCS bowl, and hopefully one with a good matchup. People wanted Alabama last year, but can you imagine if Oregon would have stayed undefeated, or even Kansas State? (Obviously not both teams). We overachieved by quite a bit last season, we shouldn't have been in the big game so early. I was perfectly content going to a Fiesta type bowl and having a decent shot at winning. I think you have to win one or two big BCS bowls before you can hit the big time. We haven't done that yet in the history of the BCS. This is our last shot before the playoff. It would be nice to come away with a BCS win before that format changes and have some momentum for next year. So tired of getting horrible matchups in bowls, lets keep it on the up and up and get paired with someone that fits our team.
 

DillonHall

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This is kind of how I feel, but I'm still optimistic we can pull out a 10-2 regular season and make a BCS bowl, and hopefully one with a good matchup. People wanted Alabama last year, but can you imagine if Oregon would have stayed undefeated, or even Kansas State? (Obviously not both teams). We overachieved by quite a bit last season, we shouldn't have been in the big game so early. I was perfectly content going to a Fiesta type bowl and having a decent shot at winning. I think you have to win one or two big BCS bowls before you can hit the big time. We haven't done that yet in the history of the BCS. This is our last shot before the playoff. It would be nice to come away with a BCS win before that format changes and have some momentum for next year. So tired of getting horrible matchups in bowls, lets keep it on the up and up and get paired with someone that fits our team.

Momentum doesn't carry over in the offseason.
 
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