How many can ND take in 2014?

[KPENN]

So with the transfers and people not honoring their LOI, does anyone know how many can ND take for the 2014 class? Sorry if this has been discussed but i haven't seen it anywhere and was curious.

 

[STLDomer]

Right now, 22 if u assume every 5th year is asked back, 27 if none are

 

[KPENN]

22 if u assume every 5th year is asked back, 27 if none

Thanks Conway.

 

[WestCoast]

I don't have a rivals account, but saw this earlier today:

June 11, 2013
Taking twenty-three

Tim Prister
IrishIllustrated.com

The Irish have 10 commitments with OT Alex Bars and should have at least a total of 23 spots available.

 

[ACamp1900]

I honestly think ND could go for one or two above the limit every year with the expectation that attrition will always make room... shade of grey? Maybe, but there has to be some give somewhere... JuCos?

 

[Crazy Balki]

I think the 5th years will be:

Lombard
Moore
Heggie

So the magic number is 24.

 

[STLDomer]

My first post wasn't accurate actually my mistake. I was looking at BGIs list there are actually more than just 5 fifth year seniors. They just assume only 5 are on the table, A. Collinsworth, C. Lombard, A. Welch, L. Wood & K. Moore.

23 is the popular guess though

 

[Kaneyoufeelit]

I think the 5th years will be:

Lombard
Moore
Heggie

So the magic number is 24.

Hendrix if he wants it

 

[KPENN]

I think the 5th years will be:

Lombard
Moore
Heggie

So the magic number is 24.

 

[irishog77]

I think the 5th years will be:

Lombard
Moore
Heggie

So the magic number is 24.

 

[Whiskeyjack]

So with the transfers and people not honoring their LOI, does anyone know how many can ND take for the 2014 class? Sorry if this has been discussed but i haven't seen it anywhere and was curious.

Freshman + Sophomores + Juniors = 60. That means the magic number (2014 signees + 5Ys) is 25.

Seniors with remaining eligibility include: Hendrix, Massa, Welch, Heggie, Lombard, Utupo, Nix, Moore, Wood, Collinsworth. Of those, only Lombard is a lock to return, but we always underestimate the number of 5Ys. Let's put it at 3.

25 - 3 = 22 new signees.

 

[Rack Em]

Freshman + Sophomores + Juniors = 60. That means the magic number (2014 signees + 5Ys) is 25.

Seniors with remaining eligibility include: Hendrix, Massa, Welch, Heggie, Lombard, Utupo, Nix, Moore, Wood, Collinsworth. Of those, only Lombard is a lock to return, but we always underestimate the number of 5Ys. Let's put it at 3.

25 - 3 = 22 new signees.

That's because we consistently **** ourselves with late defections and offseason transfers.

 

[irishog77]

Freshman + Sophomores + Juniors = 60. That means the magic number (2014 signees + 5Ys) is 25.

Seniors with remaining eligibility include: Hendrix, Massa, Welch, Heggie, Lombard, Utupo, Nix, Moore, Wood, Collinsworth. Of those, only Lombard is a lock to return, but we always underestimate the number of 5Ys. Let's put it at 3.

25 - 3 = 22 new signees.

Right...

That's because we consistently **** ourselves with late defections and offseason transfers.

and right.

I don't think the plan is to bring back some of the players that have been brought back...it's just worked out that they can. In the long run, ND will have some major problems bringing back marginal talents instead of restocking the shelves with talented guys.

Cough, Tommy Schutt, cough.

 

[Whiskeyjack]

That's because we consistently **** ourselves with late defections and offseason transfers.

The only alternative is to oversign. I'm not sure how the staff can do it ethically.

I don't think the plan is to bring back some of the players that have been brought back...it's just worked out that they can. In the long run, ND will have some major problems bringing back marginal talents instead of restocking the shelves with talented guys.

Cough, Tommy Schutt, cough.

Let's consider what happened last cycle. By my count, we've currently got 82 guys on scholarship; that's three unused scholarships right there. And then we've got the marginal guys who probably wouldn't be on scholarship right now if things had gone according to plan-- Tausch, Calabrese, Stockton and Schmidt.

So theoretically, we've got 7 scholarships that could have been put to better use. But we still signed 23 kids in February as part of a monster class. No one ever seriously suggested that we could take anything close to 30 commits last cycle. So what am I missing? I'm not seeing the flaw in our recruiting strategy.

 

[irishog77]

The only alternative is to oversign. I'm not sure how the staff can do it ethically.



Let's consider what happened last cycle. By my count, we've currently got 82 guys on scholarship; that's two unused scholarships right there. And then we've got the marginal guys who probably wouldn't be on scholarship right now if things had gone according to plan-- Tausch, Calabrese, Stockton and Schmidt.

So theoretically, we've got 6 scholarships that could have been put to better use. But we still signed 23 kids in February as part of a monster class. No one ever seriously suggested that we could take anything close to 30 commits last cycle. So what am I missing? I'm not seeing the flaw in our recruiting strategy.

Yeah, I don't think inking 30 was ever a plan...nor should it have ever been.

I don't think there's anything you're missing-- I agreed with your OP and agree here. I don't think there's necessarily a flaw in the recruiting strategy (how could the staff account for the unknowable anyway?) either.

I was more agreeing with Rackem as to why we seem to underestimate the 5th Years.

I do think that, over time, there is certainly difficulty filling the roster with the Tauschs', Stocktons, and Goodmans of the world instead of bringing in a new, more talented guy, and developing him for 4 years. I think it goes without saying that the staff, with hindsight, would not have passed on a guy like Tommy Schutt had they known where they would be today, numbers-wise.

 

[Whiskeyjack]

Let's assume Vanderdoes' defection, Kiel's transfer and Golson's expulsion were unforeseeable. That means our best case scenario involves 82 scholarship athletes heading into the 2013 season.

Ideally, we probably only bring back Z. Martin, Watt and Fox for 5Ys. So should we have been trying to sign 4 more top recruits (especially after 2012's dream season), instead of offering Stockton, Calabrese, Tausch and Schmidt? Why weren't we shooting to sign 28?

We're really thin at ILB and DT. Surely there were some recruits at those two positions that would have happily jumped on board late last year.

 

[ACamp1900]

We're really thin at ILB and DT. Surely there were some recruits at those two positions that would have happily jumped on board late last year.

That's the frustrating part isn't?

 

[BGIF]

The only alternative is to oversign. I'm not sure how the staff can do it ethically.

The staff can't do it, period!

This is Notre Dame where Admissions decides who becomes a student. If there aren't enough slots the last LOI doesn't get a scholarship. It's happened before under Holtz. IF they except all LOIs then somebody loses a shot at a 5th year.

Let's consider what happened last cycle. By my count, we've currently got 82 guys on scholarship; that's three unused scholarships right there. And then we've got the marginal guys who probably wouldn't be on scholarship right now if things had gone according to plan-- Tausch, Calabrese, Stockton and Schmidt.

So theoretically, we've got 7 scholarships that could have been put to better use. But we still signed 23 kids in February as part of a monster class. No one ever seriously suggested that we could take anything close to 30 commits last cycle. So what am I missing? I'm not seeing the flaw in our recruiting strategy.

Tausch was a Top 10 kicker in H.S. He set the All-Time Consectutive FG record his first season. He was the Starter last season till he went down with a groin injury. Tausch has made 84% of his FGAs. Brinzda's made 74%. Brinzda has the longer boot 52 Yds versus 46 Yds.

Nick is one of the best kicker's in ND history. He's far from "marginal"!

IF Brindza is the Starter in '13 and sustains an injury like Tausch did or like Craig Hentrich did, ND plays with a walk-on.

 

[Whiskeyjack]

This is Notre Dame where Admissions decides who becomes a student. If there aren't enough slots the last LOI doesn't get a scholarship. It's happened before under Holtz. IF they except all LOIs then somebody loses a shot at a 5th year.

That's what I was getting at. Every year we seem to offer several marginal 5Ys (or walk-ons) that probably wouldn't be on scholarship if the staff's recruiting plans had panned out. What's inherently unethical about a recruiting strategy that results in ND signing a couple more 4 recruits instead of bringing back Stockton or offering Schmidt?

Tausch was a Top 10 kicker in H.S. He set the All-Time Consectutive FG record his first season. He was the Starter last season till he went down with a groin injury. Tausch has made 84% of his FGAs. Brinzda's made 74%. Brinzda has the longer boot 52 Yds versus 46 Yds.

Nick is one of the best kicker's in ND history. He's far from "marginal"!

IF Brindza is the Starter in '13 and sustains an injury like Tausch did or like Craig Hentrich did, ND plays with a walk-on.

That's fine. You could make the same argument for Calabrese given his experience and our poor depth at ILB. But Stockton and Schmidt? Neither of those guys has a realistic chance to contribute in 2013, so why wasn't the staff reaching for two more recruits? We had all the momentum in 2012.

 

[NDWorld247]

Let's assume Vanderdoes' defection, Kiel's transfer and Golson's expulsion were unforeseeable. That means our best case scenario involves 82 scholarship athletes heading into the 2013 season.

Are you suggesting Neal and Ferguson were foreseeable?

 

[ND NYC]

whatever the final numbers we need to get recruiting going on the defensive side of the ball for 2014 class

 

[Whiskeyjack]

Are you suggesting Neal and Ferguson were foreseeable?

Good point, but it doesn't change the analysis. Assume all the transfers, expulsions and defections were unforeseeable.

One would think that every marginal 5Y is the direct result of a whiff (or several) on the recruiting trail, no? So why are Stockton and Schmidt on scholarship right now? We were on top of the recruiting world last cycle.

To be clear, I'm not making an argument here. I genuinely don't understand why we end up bringing back so many marginal 5Ys every year; particularly last cycle, it seems like the staff didn't even try to max out our roster. Why not reach for more blue chip recruits? The 5Ys are always available as a backup plan.

 

[NDWorld247]

Good point, but it doesn't change the analysis. Assume all the transfers, expulsions and defections were unforeseeable.

One would think that every marginal 5Y is the direct result of a whiff (or several) on the recruiting trail, no? So why are Stockton and Schmidt on scholarship right now? We were on top of the recruiting world last cycle.

To be clear, I'm not making an argument here. I genuinely don't understand why we end up bringing back so many marginal 5Ys every year; particularly last cycle, it seems like the staff didn't even try to max out our roster. Why not reach for more blue chip recruits? The 5Ys are always available as a backup plan.

I agree with you, just asked for clarification. I don't have the stats in front of me but I remember us being right up against the cap of 85 on NSD assuming 3-4 5Y came back. I think they maybe could have signed 1-2 more recruits, but who? Who did we turn away that would have signed? To be clear, I'm not arguing either, just asking some questions.

 

[Whiskeyjack]

I agree with you, just asked for clarification. I don't have the stats in front of me but I remember us being right up against the cap of 85 on NSD assuming 3-4 5Y came back. I think they maybe could have signed 1-2 more recruits, but who? Who did we turn away that would have signed? To be clear, I'm not arguing either, just asking some questions.

That's my question as well. It appears they weren't reaching for anyone. Why? We'd certainly be better off with another ILB and DT on the roster right now.

 

[BGIF]

Good point, but it doesn't change the analysis. Assume all the transfers, expulsions and defections were unforeseeable.

One would think that every marginal 5Y is the direct result of a whiff (or several) on the recruiting trail, no? So why are Stockton and Schmidt on scholarship right now? We were on top of the recruiting world last cycle.

To be clear, I'm not making an argument here. I genuinely don't understand why we end up bringing back so many marginal 5Ys every year; particularly last cycle, it seems like the staff didn't even try to max out our roster. Why not reach for more blue chip recruits? The 5Ys are always available as a backup plan.

Which ND academically eligible 4 stars were beating on the door at the 11th hour last February begging for a slot and were turned down?

BTW didn't Tee cost ND a slot?

I also thought Vanderdoes and Kiel were not 11th hour but last minute flips. Who were the 4 stars waiting in the wings who were denied when they and others made their decision late in the game?

Playing with less than 85 isn't new at ND.

I recall Holtz getting burned and I recall him playing with 80 - 82 although he didn't have the 85 man restriction during his early (best) years AND he had a full-time recruiting coordinator on his staff who was the best R.C. in college FB.

Davie got burned by Leake's last minute decision to bolt to Wake Forest after agreeing with Leake and his dad not to recruit another QB in that class. ND was shutout at QB was screwed for years after that fiasco.

Willingham probably got burned the least but that's primarily due to he and his staff being the worst recruiters in ND history.

Weis got burned the most thought a combination of targeting the best blue chips frequently to the exclusion of others who wanted to come to ND, through his naïveté, and the lack of superior staff to do his recruitng. Weis was the best recruiter on his staff and perhaps his biggest liability with his my way or the highway approach to dealing with 18 year olds. IF Weis had never been a HC at ND, I doubt Kelly would ever consider hiring him as an assistant because of his brusqueness with recruits, parents, and HS coaches.

Kelly has gotten burned (it seems to me) more by transfers than late recruiting violations. It alao seems that many of those transfers were highly recruited, struggled with making their decision, and then claimed adversity forced their transfer. It also seems to me that most of that adversity was self induced through things like academics, Res Life, and lack of PT.

 

[Whiskeyjack]

That's what I was failing to see. We had 5 unforeseeable losses-- Golson, Kiel, Neal, Ferguson and Vanderdoes. Z. Martin, Watt, Calabrese, Fox and Tausch had been factored into the staff's plan from the get-go. That put us at 80/85. Stockton and Schmidt were the marginal guys who benefited from the rash of transfers, which brings us to our current 82/85.

Thanks, BGIF.