Way Too Early 2013 Season Thoughts

[AllGoldEverything]

Golsen will have 3000 yards
Lo wood will start if healthy
Huge hole where Teo was.
Amir will start.
Daniels leads team in receptions
Stanford will be our hardest game.
Both lines will be among the best.
We still will not be a high speed team.

Agree, I think Amir will really surprise some people this year. I also think TJ Jones will have a break out year at receiver, along with DD. Hoping for a big year from Niklas at tight end and I'll be interested to see how the center position plays out with Hegarty being plagued by injury most of his career. Is it time for spring ball yet?

 

[arrowryan]

Our receivers should be good this year and better than lest year. I expect Daniels and Jones to have big years(750+ yards, 6+ touchdowns each). I hope Brown gets involved into the offense more, I liked what I saw last year but I want to see more this year. And I am pumped to have Neal in the slot!

 

[IrishLax]

At safety I could see any combo of Farley, Shumate, Collinsworth, Redfield, Baratti starting. People forget how much promise Collinsworth showed before he missed the season. Shumate was a really interesting option at nickel last year. Redfield is the most athletic of the bunch. Farley has the most experience and played well in place of Slaughter last year. And Baratti showed flashes in his limited time.

Who is best for SS? Who is best for FS? I don't know.

The safety battle, the RB battle, and the TE battle are all going to be very interesting to follow. As are the right side of the OL battles.

 

[AllGoldEverything]

At safety I could see any combo of Farley, Shumate, Collinsworth, Redfield, Baratti starting. People forget how much promise Collinsworth showed before he missed the season. Shumate was a really interesting option at nickel last year. Redfield is the most athletic of the bunch. Farley has the most experience and played well in place of Slaughter last year. And Baratti showed flashes in his limited time.

Who is best for SS? Who is best for FS? I don't know.

The safety battle, the RB battle, and the TE battle are all going to be very interesting to follow. As are the right side of the OL battles.

Really good point about Collinsworth, the kid was playing very good ball before his injury and was dominant on ST.

 

[scUM Hater]

It's awesome to finally have enough depth and talent that numerous players are fighting for positions. This is what ND has been missing for 20 plus years.

 

[Bogtrotter07]

At safety I could see any combo of Farley, Shumate, Collinsworth, Redfield, Baratti starting. People forget how much promise Collinsworth showed before he missed the season. Shumate was a really interesting option at nickel last year. Redfield is the most athletic of the bunch. Farley has the most experience and played well in place of Slaughter last year. And Baratti showed flashes in his limited time.

Who is best for SS? Who is best for FS? I don't know.

The safety battle, the RB battle, and the TE battle are all going to be very interesting to follow. As are the right side of the OL battles.

The coaching staff has identified Baratti for Strong Safety and Collinsworth for Free, of the guys coming back. They are very clear not to count Max or any of the others that you mentioned out.

 

[Riddickulous]

I have one prediction:

Bruce Heggie is unleashed. Leads the nation in every statistical category, wins every major award, and then is cryogenically frozen so that in the future Heggie duplicates can be made, thus creating an entirely new level of CFB known as "Division Heg" in which teams of Heggie clones battle one another for gridiron supremacy.

 

[Old Man Mike]

i guess I'm a "romantic", but there is no one on this entire team that I'd like to see get quality minutes sometime than Bruce Heggie.

 

[EuropeanDomer]

I think TJ Jones is a heck of a receiver. He runs the greatest routes i've ever seen in ND (he doesnt need speed or acceleration to create separation) and he has an extremely great great hands. He is not the fastest, biggest or strongest but he is very polished and smart. I expect a 1000 yards season for him. He's the perfect receiver for a young QB, a master class running curls, quick outs, slants, comebacks, dump offs.. i think he makes his teammates better.

Daniels needs to step up and be ready to make plays. He doesnt got the fundamentals that TJ has but he has the athleticism, size and the body control to make plays in the air. I love his verticality. I'm high on him too.

I think the WR position will be fine. They only can improve.

 

[dublinirish]

i guess I'm a "romantic", but there is no one on this entire team that I'd like to see get quality minutes sometime than Bruce Heggie.

Love me some Heggie! I will be so happy when he gets his moment in the sun.

 

[Old Man Mike]

Gentlemen, this is not a prediction but some reflection on who we were last year and what that might possibly mean for 2013.

It's first about defense. Last year in the regular season our defense continually held everybody out of the endzone [other than the screwed up Pitt game] at a jaw-dropping rate of about 35% of those teams normal scoring. This number was remarkably consistent across the board. And we were even better than that. We were the best against the best: serving up the lowest scoring totals for Oklahoma, USC, Michigan, Stanford, and Michigan State that those teams had all season.

Well.... let's imagine that we're just as good for 2013. In fact, I believe that we are better. This "better" might not show dramatically, because last year's numbers were so low, but the "better" might make everything seem even more in control, and allow the offense better field position.

But let's dream up some numbers. I'm going to insert our last year's numbers against our opponents, then cheat on the Pitt number [to make myself feel good and list something that I believe anyway], and then put our 35% strangler number on the three new teams. How much would we be scored on?

1). Temple 9pts.
2). Michigan 6pts.
3). Purdue 17pts. {this was probably also a little anomalous}
4). MSU 3pts.
5). Oklahoma 13pts.
6). Arizona State 14pts.
7). USC 13pts.
8). Air Force 10pts.
9). Navy 10pts.
10). Pitt {35% of their average score} 10pts.
11). BYU 14pts.
12). Stanford 13pts.

So, how's the ol' offense going to be?? Think we can score more than two touchdowns per game?? That just might be all we need.

But what-the-he!l: let's score 35 a game anyway.

Could the above happen?? Why the heck not?? The defense did almost exactly that last year with eight guys returning and powerful replacements and depth. Everyone's ooo-ing about Everett and some of the fancy-dans, time to catch the train with the Defense guys.

 

[STLDomer]

I think defense could be better but we will give up more points. One of the main reasons I think that is because I think the offense will be better and faster therefore there could be less time on offense and more time on defense which inevitably leads to more scoring. Doesn't really matter to me if we win a game 21-10 or 31-20 though. Just win.

 

[greyhammer90]

I think defense could be better but we will give up more points.

Are you basing that off the secondary depth improvement?

 

[STLDomer]

Are you basing that off the secondary depth improvement?

That's definitely a big part of it. I think if some ppl (Nix, Grace, Fox, Jackson, and Farley have all been mentioned this spring I believe) step up as leaders the losses will not be as big as some may think.

I look at it in parts:

Defensive line losses: KLM

- Day can't replace his leadership but talent wise I think could surpass him.
- Depth should improve with Vanderdoes, Springmann, Shwenke and others
- and obviously Nix and Tuitt will improve

Linebacker losses: Manti

- Grace can't replace Manti, but he's looking damn good so far and will by no means be a liability
- Depth at DOG and CAT is strong with Ishaq and Jaylon
- Shembo, Fox/Calabrese, and Spond all improve

Secondary losses: Motta

- Motta stepped up big time this year but I don't think there will be much of a drop off between Motta-Farley and Shumate-Farley. Safeties should have more freedom this year too.
- Depth is very good with Wood, Baratti, Collinsworth and Redfield
- KVR is a stud and won't need help over top all the time anymore and BJax is second round pick

 

[Bubba]

Gentlemen, this is not a prediction but some reflection on who we were last year and what that might possibly mean for 2013.

It's first about defense. Last year in the regular season our defense continually held everybody out of the endzone [other than the screwed up Pitt game] at a jaw-dropping rate of about 35% of those teams normal scoring. This number was remarkably consistent across the board. And we were even better than that. We were the best against the best: serving up the lowest scoring totals for Oklahoma, USC, Michigan, Stanford, and Michigan State that those teams had all season.

Well.... let's imagine that we're just as good for 2013. In fact, I believe that we are better. This "better" might not show dramatically, because last year's numbers were so low, but the "better" might make everything seem even more in control, and allow the offense better field position.

But let's dream up some numbers. I'm going to insert our last year's numbers against our opponents, then cheat on the Pitt number [to make myself feel good and list something that I believe anyway], and then put our 35% strangler number on the three new teams. How much would we be scored on?

1). Temple 9pts.
2). Michigan 6pts.
3). Purdue 17pts. {this was probably also a little anomalous}
4). MSU 3pts.
5). Oklahoma 13pts.
6). Arizona State 14pts.
7). USC 13pts.
8). Air Force 10pts.
9). Navy 10pts.
10). Pitt {35% of their average score} 10pts.
11). BYU 14pts.
12). Stanford 13pts.

So, how's the ol' offense going to be?? Think we can score more than two touchdowns per game?? That just might be all we need.

But what-the-he!l: let's score 35 a game anyway.

Could the above happen?? Why the heck not?? The defense did almost exactly that last year with eight guys returning and powerful replacements and depth. Everyone's ooo-ing about Everett and some of the fancy-dans, time to catch the train with the Defense guys.

With that kind of defensive effort, we have a 2nd undefeated season in a row. What are the odds we have 2 in a row?

 

[GoldenToTheGrave]

The defense looks to be on the upswing over the next few years with the talent that's been coming in over the past few years, and IMO should be comparable to last year's this year. The depth charts over the next few years look utterly stacked at basically all positions.

While there's something to be said about Diaco's bend but not break philosophy, but it didn't do the offense any favors in terms of field position (special teams didn't help either). With the upgrades in experience and athleticism in the secondary, hopefully we won't have to see constant 3-4 man rush with 10 yard deep zones on every play and actually help out the offense.

Also, while the team did improve in 2012 compared to the 2010-2011 team, a lot of the difference was a healthy dose of luck (or not being unlucky) and the opponents being less formidable. Part of this had to do with the opponents in 2010-2011 massively overachieving historically speaking. No other team in the NCAA had to deal with as formidable assortment of quarterbacks as Andrew Luck, Matt Barkley, Kirk Cousins, and Denard Robinson. 2012 ND doesn't beat 2011 Stanford and likely looses to 2011 SC as well. No one can say how tough any particular opponent will be in 2013.

 

[NoJusticeNoPeace]

With that kind of defensive effort, we have a 2nd undefeated season in a row. What are the odds we have 2 in a row?

Undefeated regular season*

 

[Redbar]

The defense looks to be on the upswing over the next few years with the talent that's been coming in over the past few years, and IMO should be comparable to last year's this year. The depth charts over the next few years look utterly stacked at basically all positions.

While there's something to be said about Diaco's bend but not break philosophy, but it didn't do the offense any favors in terms of field position (special teams didn't help either). With the upgrades in experience and athleticism in the secondary, hopefully we won't have to see constant 3-4 man rush with 10 yard deep zones on every play and actually help out the offense.

Also, while the team did improve in 2012 compared to the 2010-2011 team, a lot of the difference was a healthy dose of luck (or not being unlucky) and the opponents being less formidable. Part of this had to do with the opponents in 2010-2011 massively overachieving historically speaking. No other team in the NCAA had to deal with as formidable assortment of quarterbacks as Andrew Luck, Matt Barkley, Kirk Cousins, and Denard Robinson. 2012 ND doesn't beat 2011 Stanford and likely looses to 2011 SC as well. No one can say how tough any particular opponent will be in 2013.

Gotta take issue with this. Defense's job is to stop the offense from scoring first and foremost. If they do that they have done their job. Everything else is secondary, it's nice when you can do it but it is not the main job. Defense does not need to score, or gain yards, or go three and out, or get sacks, or get turnovers, not even to hold field position. This defense did the offense a ton of favors by basically holding opponents to very few points, allowing the offense to play conservatively and play within itself. I am a huge fan of defense and it is a pet peeve when people expect a defense that stops the opponent from scoring, (to the tune of best in the nation) to go beyond that and fulfill some other statistical objective that is not essential to winning and more akin to style and preference.

 

[Bogtrotter07]

That's definitely a big part of it. I think if some ppl (Nix, Grace, Fox, Jackson, and Farley have all been mentioned this spring I believe) step up as leaders the losses will not be as big as some may think.

I look at it in parts:

Defensive line losses: KLM

- Day can't replace his leadership but talent wise I think could surpass him.
- Depth should improve with Vanderdoes, Springmann, Shwenke, Jones, Stockton and Utupo others
- and obviously Nix and Tuitt will improve

Linebacker losses: Manti

- Grace can't replace Manti, but he's looking damn good so far and will by no means be a liability
- Depth at DOG and CAT is strong with Ishaq and Jaylon
- Shembo, Fox/Calabrese, and Spond all improve

Secondary losses: Motta

- Motta stepped up big time this year but I don't think there will be much of a drop off between Motta-Farley and Shumate-Farley. Safeties should have more freedom this year too.
- Depth is very good with Wood, Baratti, Collinsworth and Redfield
- KVR is a stud and won't need help over top all the time anymore and BJax is second round pick

I really like your analysis! I want to add to it:

The defensive line is going to be seriously better. I love KLM and he got better every healthy game. But Day is coming off a Freshman AA season and looking much more mature in practice, you hear things like better than expected.

With Springman lighting things up from every position, Schwenke solidifying his play, and [Day/Utupo/Stockton] all being available for reps, per Brian Kelly's public statements this spring, the defensive line will have starters at a higher level and more backup for the long season.

No one can replace Manti's leadership. But the simple fact is this team will not need an uber-linebacker, a one-man behemoth that can and must do everything. This team needs a solid MIKE. Grace is at least a sophomore Te'o. The most important thing with the linebackers comes with the coaching staff. We will tell in the Spring game, and again against Temple if ND's linebackers become "more fluid." I don't understand all of the ramifications of that, but that is what all of the smart people say. It has to do with alignment, positioning and other pre-play adjustments, as well as movement into the play. Technical improvement of our linebackers as a whole is more important than individual player improvement.


1). Temple 9pts. Irrelevant, mop-up points.
2). Michigan 6pts. It is a MI school who knows?
3). Purdue 17pts. {this was probably also a little anomalous} This is one of those schools that does better at our place than at their own, as of late. Doesn't this game have the feel of two years ago?
4). MSU 3pts. It is a MI school who knows? This being said, I can't imagine them being any better than last year, and this year it is at our house.
5). Oklahoma 13pts. They are going to be looking for revenge. This being said, I can't imagine them being any better than last year, and this year it is at our house.
6). Arizona State 14pts. Don't we usually win our subway games by the highest point margins? This may be the best team we have played, the farthest from home.
7). USC 13pts. Will USC have a team? I think BK has LK's number. Our secondary will rock and cover their word class receiver. This year they don't have a center. BUT, we have an open date and they play the two Az teams before us with nine days between Az and ND.
8). Air Force 10pts. Irrelevant, mop-up points- but in Co.
9). Navy 10pts. Irrelevant, mop-up points.
10). Pitt {35% of their average score} 10pts. Irrelevant, mop-up points We play better at their place (the other one) and they lost their offense.
11). BYU 14pts. Will loose it's trap game aura. Have a week off for a rest, but remember what last year was like.
12). Stanford 13pts. This one scares me. This will be the best test of how much we have improved as a team, because I think they will be the same as last year. Just as good. Their field is a nightmare, however. I hate to say it but it could be the difference.

 

[GoldenToTheGrave]

Gotta take issue with this. Defense's job is to stop the offense from scoring first and foremost. If they do that they have done their job. Everything else is secondary, it's nice when you can do it but it is not the main job. Defense does not need to score, or gain yards, or go three and out, or get sacks, or get turnovers, not even to hold field position. This defense did the offense a ton of favors by basically holding opponents to very few points, allowing the offense to play conservatively and play within itself. I am a huge fan of defense and it is a pet peeve when people expect a defense that stops the opponent from scoring, (to the tune of best in the nation) to go beyond that and fulfill some other statistical objective that is not essential to winning and more akin to style and preference.

While true to an extent, there's a lot more to this. If a team looses the field position and turnover battle, it becomes VERY hard to win. If the offense has to start from inside its own 20 yard line on almost every drive, they're not going to score many points.

The defense had to play conservative this past year to a large degree because Diaco didn't trust the secondary to play more man coverage. The secondary is definitely on the upswing, and hopefully will be able to dial up more pressures and mix up coverages a la 1st half of the champs sports bowl.

I'm not criticizing the job that the defense did this year, they obviously played fantastic, but hopefully they can take it to the next level where they can intimidate opposing offenses and give our offense more of a chance.

 

[IrishLax]

I have mixed feelings for this upcoming year. We have some positions with expected great talent/depth, and others where an injury or two could completely derail the season (i.e. Zach Martin & ILB & Louis Nix/Stephon Tuitt despite overall depth at DL).

All in all, I hate playing Michigan in week 2 because I've heard rumors of them going to a "pistol" zone-read offense and we'll have ZERO tape on that. Could be disastrous. Not very afraid of anyone else on the schedule, but there are enough tough games (Oklahoma, USC, Stanford, maybe MSU, maybe Pitt, maybe ASU) that we probably drop a couple and maybe don't get back to a BCS game.

The biggest thing is going to be the evolution of Golson. Does he become a playmaker? And is our OL minus Cave/Golic going to be much better or struggle without the multi-year starter at center. Who is going to handle protections this year? Martin from the tackle spot?

 

[arrowryan]

I have mixed feelings for this upcoming year. We have some positions with expected great talent/depth, and others where an injury or two could completely derail the season (i.e. Zach Martin & ILB & Louis Nix/Stephon Tuitt despite overall depth at DL).

All in all, I hate playing Michigan in week 2 because I've heard rumors of them going to a "pistol" zone-read offense and we'll have ZERO tape on that. Could be disastrous. Not very afraid of anyone else on the schedule, but there are enough tough games (Oklahoma, USC, Stanford, maybe MSU, maybe Pitt, maybe ASU) that we probably drop a couple and maybe don't get back to a BCS game.

The biggest thing is going to be the evolution of Golson. Does he become a playmaker? And is our OL minus Cave/Golic going to be much better or struggle without the multi-year starter at center. Who is going to handle protections this year? Martin from the tackle spot?

If we lose to MSU or Pitt then I would consider this year a step backwards from 2012. MSU is going to be garbage and so should Pitt.

Michigan possibly going to the pistol is interesting to me. In fact, I don't know why they would do it. Devin Gardner would have to spend the whole summer learning a new offense, when he should be learning how to be a complete quarterback.

If we don't get turnover happy and don't lose any key players to injury, I expect to be back in a BCS bowl.

 

[IrishLax]

If we lose to MSU or Pitt then I would consider this year a step backwards from 2012. MSU is going to be garbage and so should Pitt.

I have a lot of faith in Pitt improving (especially if they keep Shell... which by blocking transfers they might end up pulling off) because I believe in Chryst. MSU is always one of those teams when you think they're going to be good they blow it and when you think they're going to suck they have a big year. So both of those teams... along with ASU... fall in my "maybe they'll be good" category.

Michigan possibly going to the pistol is interesting to me. In fact, I don't know why they would do it. Devin Gardner would have to spend the whole summer learning a new offense, when he should be learning how to be a complete quarterback.

It's really not much of a change. They already ran a minimal amount of zone read with Denard Robinson and it's not that huge of a change to the offense. You're right though that it's interesting that they've been selling for awhile "just wait until we run our pro style offense" and then would consider continuing to run spread concepts. So part of me doesn't really believe they'll be changing it up, but another part of me thinks it makes sense with an athletic QB like Gardner... either way, they were planning on installing a "new" offense this year no matter what.

 

[arrowryan]

I have a lot of faith in Pitt improving (especially if they keep Shell... which by blocking transfers they might end up pulling off) because I believe in Chryst. MSU is always one of those teams when you think they're going to be good they blow it and when you think they're going to suck they have a big year. So both of those teams... along with ASU... fall in my "maybe they'll be good" category.


It's really not much of a change. They already ran a minimal amount of zone read with Denard Robinson and it's not that huge of a change to the offense. You're right though that it's interesting that they've been selling for awhile "just wait until we run our pro style offense" and then would consider continuing to run spread concepts. So part of me doesn't really believe they'll be changing it up, but another part of me thinks it makes sense with an athletic QB like Gardner... either way, they were planning on installing a "new" offense this year no matter what.

Pitt loses Sunseri and probably Shell. That's about all the offense they had last year. Same thing goes for MSU, they lose Bell and Sims. Someone will have to step up big as a receiver for them because Maxwell is awful. Idk about ASU, I have watched them a couple times but never really paid attention.

The key word in there is "Denard Robinson", Robinson won't be back there this year. Devin Gardner will be behind a brand new middle o-line and will be next to a freshman running back. I would rather face them is week 2 when they are still trying to get a hang of their "new offense", rather than facing them later in the year when the new offense would be clicking

 

[ScooterIrish]

I have a lot of faith in Pitt improving (especially if they keep Shell... which by blocking transfers they might end up pulling off) because I believe in Chryst. MSU is always one of those teams when you think they're going to be good they blow it and when you think they're going to suck they have a big year. So both of those teams... along with ASU... fall in my "maybe they'll be good" category.

Meh I thought MSU would stink last year...and they did.

 

[PraetorianND]

Meh I thought MSU would stink last year...and they did.

I think he meant, "expected to be good" rather than "you think." MSU was preseason #13. I'm sure plenty of people thought they would stink, just not most.

 

[irishfan]

Which proves ESPN and other ranking services have no idea about football. To rank MSU #13 was a joke with little research done.

I agree with arrowryan here.

How was it a joke? They went 7-6, but 5 of those losses were by a combined 13 points.

 

[irishff1014]

How was it a joke? They went 7-6, but 5 of those losses were by a combined 13 points.

They had 2 good wins a Weak Boise State and TCU in the bowl game.

 

[Bogtrotter07]

I don't know about you guys, but anyone else tired of sporadic videos, minimal information, or no Jack Nolan this spring?

 

[ACamp1900]

My expectations...

basically to take a step back, frustrating loses and a blown up recruiting class... being the pessimistic A hole that i am.