Phil Steele has us as 20-point dogs to the Sooners. Not confidence inspiring.
They rank #46 in rushing defense despite playing in the pass happy Big12 and only facing two top 50 rushing teams. They are mediocre at best when it comes to rushing defense.
As mediocre as they are in rushing defense, they are the polar opposite in pass defense. They rank #9 while playing in the pass happy Big12. I would be shocked if we effectively passed against them. They have one of the best secondaries in the country.
They rank #15 in total defense, which is pretty good. Keep in mind though; BYU, scUM and MichSt all are ranked higher. According to today's statistics, they are the fourth best defense that we have faced.
Those vanilla stats can be pretty misleading, Wooly. S&P currently ranks OU at
7th against the run nationally (though you're right to point out that both Michigan State and Stanford are still rated better against the run.)
FEI ranks their defense at 6th, and
F/+ at 2nd.
They rocketed up the rankings in most of the advanced models by playing a single absolutely perfect game against Texas. To the extent that Texas was overrated at the time, OU may be a little overrated right now. But the stats indicate that this OU team is complete, including on defense.
The advanced metrics indicate that if OU clearly outclasses us anywhere, it's on special teams.
FEI ranks OU at 17th, and ND at a pathetic 90th. From
Keith Arnold's article on our ST struggles:
Opponent Kickoff Return: 94th.
Kickoff Return: 97th.
Opponent Punt Return: 31st.
Punt Return: 114th.
And even though our punt coverage unit has performed pretty well, Turk's inconsistency still provides our opponents with great field position frequently. OU's offense is miles better than anything we've faced thus far this year. If we lose the field position battle, you can bet it'll be reflected on the score board.
I'm not seeing much reason to be optimistic about this game.