The Rule of 3

[IrishFBfanatic]

Truff! If you look back at the original post, you will see that pretty much all of the championship coaches had an awkward QB situation in their third season. It didn't stop any of them.

Yeah I know, I agree with you about the rule of 3. Very interesting, very cool, and fairly accurate in judging a coach's career

 

[Bluto]

So like the Mayans were right. BK wins the title, the world ends and we all die happy! That's why their calendar stops at 2012. Great thread BTW.

 

[Irish#1]

I think what you see, is coaches take over programs that had talent, but not in abundance. The first couple of years is where the new coach took the current players and instilled more work ethic, discipline and started changing the mental makeup of the team. By the third year, players and coaches know exactly what is demanded and expected of them. In addition, players and coaches are more knowledgeable and comfortable with the playbook each other and are on the same page. The coach also has some of his own recruits on the team, hence they fit in to his O or D more easily and can contribute earlier.

 

[RDU Irish]

Well if the Mayans are right, we won't get to see ND play in the championship game and we will be robbed a'la' Rockny to provide bookend "shoulda been" championship, undefeated seasons.

Now you have me worried about Mayans, Bluto. Thanks for nothin'.

 

[DomeLover3]

On my trip to Boston I took a tour of BU and the tour guide claimed students at BU discovered missing parts of the Mayan calender. Now we have until 4012 according to the Mayans.

Nostradamus on the other hand...

 

[Patulski]

This is what burns me about people talking about how Kelly's teams aren't like Lou's and that his aren't as sound as Lou's. Look at Lou's first two seasons compared to Kelly.

Notre Dame finished the 1987 season 8-4.
Notre Dame finished the 2011 regular season 8-4.

In 1986 and 1987, Notre Dame had 10 losses by a total of 90 points.
In 2010 and 2011, Notre Dame had 10 losses by a total of 88 points.

In 1988, Notre Dame defeated four teams ranked in the Coaches’ Poll Top 10.
In 2012, Notre Dame plays four teams ranked in ESPN.com’s preseason Top 11.

I bet there were a lot of people saying "Lou's teams just don't look like Ara's" after his second season.

People were comparing Lou's teams to Faust's. The difference was crystal clear.

To be fair to Lou, if you're going to compare wins and losses, you have to compare strength of schedule. In 1988, he beat four Top 10 teams. If Kelly beats all four of the Top 11 preseason teams he faces this year, I don't think anybody will be complaining. He has established (except for Tiusa and Navy in 2010) that he can beat teams he's supposed to beat. So, four wins against Top 11 teams will be icing on the cake and will likely place us in contention to be National Champions.

If you believe this will happen, then you have more belief in Kelly and this program's progress than I do. However, I will be as delighted as you if this comes to pass.

Here's Lou's Top 10 opponents from 1986-1988

Here's Kelly's Top 10 games so far:

 

[woolybug25]

I don't know where you pulled those numbers from, but I seem to remember Kelly playing more ranked teams. Stanford went 12-1 in 2010 too. Last year, scUM and MSU both finished the season ranked and the only reason USC wasn't ranked was because of the sanctions.

 

[chubler]

Also, USF was a team we were definitely supposed to beat.

 

[Rudy89]

I saw people saying if Kelly hasnt gotten it done by 2013 ir 2014 fire him do you mean National title by then or what do you mean? I dunno if we can win a title in this new colelge football world but if in 2014 we are coming off two more season where we go 8-5, 9-4, or 10-3 and arent losing to teams we shouldnt lose to like Navy and can pick up wins over 3 of our 5 biggest rivals every year Id see no trouble in keeping kelly but I also understand that this is ND and the standard is higher for coaches here.

 

[Patulski]

I don't know where you pulled those numbers from

Here's the database

My comparison was Top 10 teams. I think USC would have been ranked in the Top 10 in 2011.

 

[Patulski]

Also, USF was a team we were definitely supposed to beat.

Agree.

 

[woolybug25]

Here's the database

Using that link, it said this for me. I'm not sure what I did differently.

2010 HOME SEP 25 2010 KELLY L 14-37 Not Ranked STANFORD JIM HARBAUGH 16
2010 HOME NOV 13 2010 KELLY W 28-3 Not Ranked UTAH KYLE WHITTINGHAM 15
2011 HOME SEP 17 2011 KELLY W 31-13 Not Ranked MICHIGAN STATE MARK DANTONIO 15
2011 AWAY NOV 26 2011 KELLY L 14-28 22 STANFORD DAVID SHAW 4
2011 CHAMPS BOWL DEC 29 2011 KELLY L 14-18 Not Ranked FLORIDA STATE JIMBO FISHER 25



and again, USC would have been on there twice too if it weren't for the sanctions. They certainly played like a top 25 team the last two season, I don't think any of us would disagree with that. So if you add USC into the equation, then Kelly has faced the same amount of ranked teams as Holtz did in his first two seasons.

 

[woolybug25]

You were editing your post while I was writing mine. My bad, I used top25 instead of top 10 like you did.


That being said, they did play the same amount of top 25 teams, so is there really that much of a difference because of Holtz playing two more top 10 out of the top 25? I don't know, I guess that's objective I suppose.

 

[Rhode Irish]

I saw this story on HLS and it reminded me of this thread. One thing that is in this piece that I don't think was brought up here is Kelly's record in his third year at previous stops. Anyone that was interested in this thread should check it out.

 

[woolybug25]

I saw this story on HLS and it reminded me of this thread. One thing that is in this piece that I don't think was brought up here is Kelly's record in his third year at previous stops. Anyone that was interested in this thread should check it out.

Interesting article. I wonder if Tex is an IE reader



Anywho, I am waaaay too supersticious to have this thread up during the season. I am going to ask Hollywood to close this bad boy until the season is over. Let's revisit this then, shall we?


Thanks for the great dialogue gents. We have a lot of really good conversation in this thread.

 

[woolybug25]

Alright gents, I have came off of the ledge and feel as though I am ready to talk about this.

First of all, many thanks to Hollywood for locking this thread as we chased a title. I really do think that this conversation is better with perspective, rather than having everyone going nuts during the run. After we lost in the Natty, this thread probably would have been locked for a different reason anyway.

So... what do you all think? I believe that it is unquestionable that BK chased a title this year. We played in the title game for crying out loud. While there are a resounding number of coaches that actually won it in their third year, the Rule of 3 states that a coach has to "chase a title within the first three years". So BK would be following guys like Rockne or Paterno (hopefully we don't have to wait that long), both of whom chased one in the first three years, but had to wait for their first.

With odds greatly against us, BK showed me that he has what it takes. I think he will eventually take us to the promiseland.



Also... I would be remiss if I didn't bring this up...

This year? Are you serious?

Yes, Riddi... we were serious...

 

[yankeeND]

Well if you look at our expectation before the year, you will see that we unanimously were exceeded. Kelly is most definitely the right guy and I do believe he will win a title. He can recruit, he develops his players, and he is fighting for continuity within his coaching staff. The NC game was tough to stomach but Kelly knows where he has to be now. If you don't play the best, you can't measure how far off you are. He now knows and our recruiting class this year is another step towards closing the gap, add EV and we will be a little further ahead of schedule.

 

[WakeUpEchoes]

It wasn't 1988 (and by that I'm not referring to the NC, I'm talking about schedule). A lot of things fell into place for us this year, and the schedule didn't pan out to be nearly as daunting.

However, I believe, as do others, that this year solidified BK as our guy, and his potential to go down as one of the greats. I didn't have an opinion on it beforehand, mainly for my own sanity.

I think the Rule of 3 showed a pretty strong correlation this year to the trend of great HC's at ND, strong enough for me to hope and expect that BK can lead us to many great years of ND football. It's his team now, and I feel good with the team in his hands.

 

[Old Man Mike]

I never disagreed with the concept that a great coach by year three would have his systems and players so well in place that he would be overtly demonstrating that greatness. My "negativity" in the early days of this thread was because there was quite a bit of commentary seeming to get behind the idea that IF HE DIDN'T ACTUALLY WIN THE NC, then he was not the right coach, probably never would, and we should begin to look elsewhere. I stated my strong disbelief in that "numerological fatalism" and still do. The Year Three Indicator of excellence is generally true. The Year Three Indicator that someone will not be The Man of Destiny is not one of the football gods' laws.

 

[woolybug25]

I never disagreed with the concept that a great coach by year three would have his systems and players so well in place that he would be overtly demonstrating that greatness. My "negativity" in the early days of this thread was because there was quite a bit of commentary seeming to get behind the idea that IF HE DIDN'T ACTUALLY WIN THE NC, then he was not the right coach, probably never would, and we should begin to look elsewhere. I stated my strong disbelief in that "numerological fatalism" and still do. The Year Three Indicator of excellence is generally true. The Year Three Indicator that someone will not be The Man of Destiny is not one of the football gods' laws.

Certainly not the Law of The Football Gods, but if BK would have went 8-5 this year, I'm not sure how I would feel about having a coach that statistically has single digit chances of winning a title according to over a 100 of football.

 

[woolybug25]

Bump.

I picking Auburn in the upset.

I freaking hate the SEC...

 

[Pachuco]

Bump.

I picking Auburn in the upset.

I freaking hate the SEC...

I hate Florida St., and so I'm in on this.

 

[IrishBlood81]

Should be a pretty amazing game imo. Hope ACC wins..

 

[notredomer23]

This year? Are you serious?

looking back, this is golden

 

[Riddickulous]

looking back, this is golden

This board is filled with terrible predictions, most of them mine, as seen here.