Ukraine

[Bogtrotter07]

Right, at least back to '47.

You know, I am sorry. I got in a hurry yesterday so I would like to apologize for my inaccurate statement. The formation of Israel and the backing of the new state by the UN was the source of much hatred.

And there have been other issues since then. But as far as the Middle East, and North Africa, all European powers and Russia have been hated for as long as they have been colonial powers active in the region. I was trying to first distinguish this from that. How do you ever get past a Great Britain drawing arbitrary lines in the sand as borders for countries that never existed? Enslavement of millions? Two World Wars that cost countless lives.

And there were some things we did in Lebanon that were pretty damn ugly.

And the US developed a reputation from the Nixon years through the Bush years of doing what they want without considering the needs, feelings, or the safety of indigenous peoples. This is what I was getting at. Of all the times we could have enrolled a functional, effective coalition, there were the efforts of out support of the Afghanistan freedom fighters, and little else.

Instead of completing our end of the bargain, making sure the people that went out on a limb were protected, we dropped them like a hot rock. We did it again roughly a decade later with the Kurds. In the gulf we pissed everyone off by working with the Kurds, then we dropped them like a rock. They were slaughtered too. So it was a prevalent modus operendi of Washington from 1980 to 1990.

 

[chicago51]

Isreal's formation was the source of a lot of hatred.

Al Queda and Bin Laden though really didn't have much an issue with the US until the first Gulf War. Not saying saving Kuwait was a bad thing BTW. What really drove Bin Laden to insane hatred against the United States though, was when built we an air force base in Saudi Arabia. The base never went away and Bin Laden never could stand having that damn base in his home country.

 

[Cackalacky]

So what's going on with this Crimea Referendum vote? Anyone privy?

 

[Cackalacky]

Sevastopol and Crimean parliament vote to join Russia, referendum to be held in 10 days — RT News
The more I read about this, the more I believe it was a concerted effort for Russia to annex Crimea.

 

[Ndaccountant]

Sevastopol and Crimean parliament vote to join Russia, referendum to be held in 10 days — RT News
The more I read about this, the more I believe it was a concerted effort for Russia to annex Crimea.

For Putin, I think it has been and will be more than that. At this point, he knows he holds the cards here and he is going to play his hand to benefit himself. If that means Crimea, he is going to take it and will come back looking for more.

 

[Buster Bluth]

For Putin, I think it has been and will be more than that. At this point, he knows he holds the cards here and he is going to play his hand to benefit himself. If that means Crimea, he is going to take it and will come back looking for more.

I can't see that. This isn't 1940. We have a global economy and every time he wants to land grab it makes his former-Soviet friends nervous and the stock market (read: Russian billionaires) take a hit. An ultra-aggressive Russia is would be the end of Russia's position in the global economy. We, at least in the civilized parts of the globe, have just reached a point were 99% of wars don't make sense anymore; it's bad for the economy. That's a good thing.

 

[Cackalacky]

I can't see that. This isn't 1940. We have a global economy and every time he wants to land grab it makes his former-Soviet friends nervous and the stock market (read: Russian billionaires) take a hit. An ultra-aggressive Russia is would be the end of Russia's position in the global economy. We, at least in the civilized parts of the globe, have just reached a point were 99% of wars don't make sense anymore; it's bad for the economy. That's a good thing.

I want to believe you Buster but this has Sudetenland written all over it. President Merkel recently said Putin is pretty much a psycho.

 

[Buster Bluth]

I want to believe you Buster but this has Sudetenland written all over it. President Merkel recently said Putin is pretty much a psycho.

So Sudetenland happens. What next, he annexes Belarus? He's certainly not going after any NATO countries. A lot of Russia's moves have been self-defeating anyway. He may end up with Crimea, at the cost of losing Ukraine to the west. That's not a Hitleresque exploitation of the west's weakness.

I still maintain that he wanted to get in and get Crimea to secure Russian defense priorities. Until we see that it's more than that, I'm not worried. Sudetenland was move #2, right? Austria then Czechoslovakia, then Poland. Putin has stronger claims now than Hitler had then, in my opinion (Poland is close).

 

[Whiskeyjack]

For Putin, I think it has been and will be more than that. At this point, he knows he holds the cards here and he is going to play his hand to benefit himself. If that means Crimea, he is going to take it and will come back looking for more.

I doubt it. Annexing Crimea can be justified by Russia's legitimate vital interests and (arguably) the democratic will of the Crimeans. Marching on Kiev could not be similarly justified, and would all but ensure a serious conflict with NATO. Putin's not suicidal.

 

[Buster Bluth]

Putin's not suicidal.

Exactly. How can a guy who is being touted as "out maneuvering the US left and right" be stupid enough to undo all of the gains in one mindless move?

In international politics you have to take what the defense gives you. Despite the stupid Obama criticisms, Russia best-case scenario here is a self-defeating annexation of Crimea in which the west still more than likely wins when the rest of Ukraine gives the finger to Russia. Pretty good for a NATO/EU/Obama that everyone apparently thinks cannot stop stepping on their own dicks.

I think he's about out of military options. If he's going to make a move it's going to be to destabilize Ukraine KGB-style via promoting unrest in the eastern portions of Ukraine.

 

[Cackalacky]

So Sudetenland happens. What next, he annexes Belarus? He's certainly not going after any NATO countries. A lot of Russia's moves have been self-defeating anyway. He may end up with Crimea, at the cost of losing Ukraine to the west. That's not a Hitleresque exploitation of the west's weakness.

I still maintain that he wanted to get in and get Crimea to secure Russian defense priorities. Until we see that it's more than that, I'm not worried. Sudetenland was move #2, right? Austria then Czechoslovakia, then Poland. Putin has stronger claims now than Hitler had then, in my opinion (Poland is close).

I am not saying he is going for world domination. And true, Russia would have a hard time moving against a NATO country, but massive majority of people in Sudetenland wanted to be in Nazi Germany. It was facilitated by Chamberlain but ratified by the people shortly thereafter.

Maybe he will move to start annexing more pro-Russia territories like Republican gerrymandering? LOL j/k maybe.....

 

[Grahambo]

I can't see that. This isn't 1940. We have a global economy and every time he wants to land grab it makes his former-Soviet friends nervous and the stock market (read: Russian billionaires) take a hit. An ultra-aggressive Russia is would be the end of Russia's position in the global economy. We, at least in the civilized parts of the globe, have just reached a point were 99% of wars don't make sense anymore; it's bad for the economy. That's a good thing.

Well said.

China is watching. Despite being more of a supporter for Moscow in political affairs in the past, they have economic ties with Ukraine. Notice how careful Beijing is being with this whole ordeal unlike Syria which is 100% vocal in support of Moscow.

 

[Buster Bluth]

I am not saying he is going for world domination. And true, Russia would have a hard time moving against a NATO country, but massive majority of people in Sudetenland wanted to be in Nazi Germany. It was facilitated by Chamberlain but ratified by the people shortly thereafter.

Maybe he will move to start annexing more pro-Russia territories like Republican gerrymandering? LOL j/k maybe.....

That sorta thing won't keep me up at night. And there's a lot to be said about calculating if said moves would be a net-positive for him anyway. There are costs to these actions. He can't move on one former-USSR country and have the rest be okay with it. Look at Kazakhstan, they're kinda worried now. So say he moves against Belarus, or Latvia, the ones who didn't get invaded flee towards western protection.

 

[Cackalacky]

I think he's about out of military options. If he's going to make a move it's going to be to destabilize Ukraine KGB-style via promoting unrest in the eastern portions of Ukraine.

This is a very real possibility.

 

[Cackalacky]

Well said.

China is watching. Despite being more of a supporter for Moscow in political affairs in the past, they have economic ties with Ukraine. Notice how careful Beijing is being with this whole ordeal unlike Syria which is 100% vocal in support of Moscow.

China has been very quiet ....

 

[Grahambo]

This is a very real possibility.

Russia will not invade Ukraine. Thats an economic disaster that would affect a close ally like China.

 

[Grahambo]

China has been very quiet ....

From Forbes (http://www.forbes.com/sites/elizabe...-soft-nyet-to-russias-ukraine-intervention/):

What is behind China’s failure to stand up for Moscow? As Voice of America has reported, China has strong business interests in Ukraine that would undoubtedly be threatened were China to come out in support of Russia. Ukraine is a major source of arms for China and a growing partner in China’s resource quest. For example, Ukraine has agreed to lease 5% of its land to China for agricultural purposes in exchange for Chinese infrastructure investment. Of course these deals were struck under ousted Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych. It is possible that the new government will not recognize or revoke them if they were struck under terms perceived as unequal by the new government. Certainly, however, Chinese-Ukrainian business relations will suffer more if Beijing overtly backs Moscow.

Also:

Letting Russia have its way would undermine China’s relationship with Ukraine and cost Beijing significant credibility abroad. Of course, it is possible that as time goes on, other considerations could emerge. Beijing might see merit in supporting Moscow, for example, in exchange for Moscow’s support of Beijing’s maritime ambitions. But for now, as the Ministry of Foreign Affairs appears to realize, sometimes when a friend has a bad idea, you just have to say no.

EDIT: Now, I do follow the 'never say never' saying so there is always a possibility but Russia would be close to standing alone against the rest of the world.

 

[Cackalacky]

Russia will not invade Ukraine. Thats an economic disaster that would affect a close ally like China.

Isn't Crimea a part of the Ukraine? If the referendum is approved then they democratically annexed a portion of Ukraine. Its a very slippery slope if it is allowed to happen. Also the annexation would effectively diminish Ukraine's access to the Black Sea. Russia would/could control access to Donetsk too. How long would it be until Donetsk wants to join Russia to get access to the Black Sea?. I know its a lot a hypotheticals but there are definite economic/societal paths here. There is very little stopping Donetsk from saying "Come and get us Russia, please" if that referendum passes. The main speedbump would be outside players tolerating it.

I agree with China's relationship but they have not thrown any military weight around recently that I am aware of.

 

[Grahambo]

Isn't Crimea a part of the Ukraine? If the referendum is approved then they democratically annexed a portion of Ukraine. Its a very slippery slope if it is allowed to happen. Also the annexation would effectively diminish Ukraine's access to the Black Sea. Russia would/could control access to Donetsk too. How long would it be until Donetsk wants to join Russia to get access to the Black Sea?. I know its a lot a hypotheticals but there are definite economic/societal paths here. There is very little stopping Donetsk from saying "Come and get us Russia, please" if that referendum passes. The main speedbump would be outside players tolerating it.

I agree with China's relationship but they have not thrown any military weight around recently that I am aware of.

Technically, yes but is so pro-Russian that it might as well be apart of Russia. China is all about the economy but they have a military that is rapidly growing and now are 2nd in the world in defense spending. They grew 12.2% this past year but analysts believe there is more in secret. Pretty good WaPo article about it: As budgets soar, China still fears its military isn’t growing fast enough - The Washington Post

Again, when one of your staunchest allies generally sits middle of the road on an issue, its because it affects them in some way. China also doesn't want Russia to 'expand' despite this current affair occurring to the west of China.

 

[Cackalacky]

Technically, yes but is so pro-Russian that it might as well be apart of Russia. China is all about the economy but they have a military that is rapidly growing and now are 2nd in the world in defense spending. They grew 12.2% this past year but analysts believe there is more in secret. Pretty good WaPo article about it: As budgets soar, China still fears its military isn’t growing fast enough - The Washington Post

Again, when one of your staunchest allies generally sits middle of the road on an issue, its because it affects them in some way. China also doesn't want Russia to 'expand' despite this current affair occurring to the west of China.

I tried to follow your link in the other post above but it was broken.

I guess what I am getting at is there are other regions that are much more pro-Russian than Crimea (obviously Russia has military interests there and economic interests as well). If Crimea is annexed democratically, what or who would stop the other regions from doing so as well (like Donetsk's region: 90%+ pro-Russia voting)? Would China step up or would the West negate the annex referendum? I am not questioning you, just asking questions in general. Is anyone willing to stop a democratic process?

 

[Bogtrotter07]

I tried to follow your link in the other post above but it was broken.

I guess what I am getting at is there are other regions that are much more pro-Russian than Crimea (obviously Russia has military interests there and economic interests as well). If Crimea is annexed democratically, what or who would stop the other regions from doing so as well (like Donetsk's region: 90%+ pro-Russia voting)? Would China step up or would the West negate the annex referendum? I am not questioning you, just asking questions in general. Is anyone willing to stop a democratic process?

I had a couple articles a few pages back. Time went in depth into the issue, this week.

 

[Grahambo]

I tried to follow your link in the other post above but it was broken.

I guess what I am getting at is there are other regions that are much more pro-Russian than Crimea (obviously Russia has military interests there and economic interests as well). If Crimea is annexed democratically, what or who would stop the other regions from doing so as well (like Donetsk's region: 90%+ pro-Russia voting)? Would China step up or would the West negate the annex referendum? I am not questioning you, just asking questions in general. Is anyone willing to stop a democratic process?

I know you're not questioning me. It's good to talk about real world news and not the height of a particular TE.

It's hard to figure out because we don't know who has backdoor deals with who and how it would affect both parties, etc. My degree is in International Relations with a focus on European studies so its all fascinating to me. Add to that my time in my MOS with the USMC and it just adds to all the intrigue; for me anyway.

 

[Cackalacky]

I had a couple articles a few pages back. Time went in depth into the issue, this week.

Cheers. thanks. I will go look. Definitely missed it.

I know you're not questioning me. It's good to talk about real world news and not the height of a particular TE.

It's hard to figure out because we don't know who has backdoor deals with who and how it would affect both parties, etc. My degree is in International Relations with a focus on European studies so its all fascinating to me. Add to that my time in my MOS with the USMC and it just adds to all the intrigue; for me anyway.

Yeah its massively interesting. I love stuff like this because a few years down the road i t might make it in a history book somewhere.

I am going to keep you on my rolodex when I start up the "New Continental Congress" thread again. You will be my European/Military adviser.

I personally think this referendum could have some major regional implications.

Sounds like Israel is getting twitchy.

 

[Grahambo]

Cheers. thanks. I will go look. Definitely missed it.


Yeah its massively interesting. I love stuff like this because a few years down the road i t might make it in a history book somewhere.

I am going to keep you on my rolodex when I start up the "New Continental Congress" thread again. You will be my European/Military adviser.

I personally think this referendum could have some major regional implications.

Sounds like Israel is getting twitchy.

I'm in. Buster should be on the rolodex too. Whiskey is a shoe-in.

 

[Ndaccountant]

I doubt it. Annexing Crimea can be justified by Russia's legitimate vital interests and (arguably) the democratic will of the Crimeans. Marching on Kiev could not be similarly justified, and would all but ensure a serious conflict with NATO. Putin's not suicidal.

Who said anything about Kiev?

There is still nostalgia for the Soviet way of life in some regions of the former states. In the last 5 years or so we have now seen Russia take part in very similar activities in Georgia and now Ukraine. They are still large communities in Belarus, Kazakhstan, Moldova, Estonia and Latvia. I am not saying anything is imminent. Rather, when unrest occurs in this region, you better believe Putin will lead the way given their ever increasing oil and gas bankroll combined with the west's conflict fatigue.

 

[Bogtrotter07]

I know you're not questioning me. It's good to talk about real world news and not the height of a particular TE.

It's hard to figure out because we don't know who has backdoor deals with who and how it would affect both parties, etc. My degree is in International Relations with a focus on European studies so its all fascinating to me. Add to that my time in my MOS with the USMC and it just adds to all the intrigue; for me anyway.

A couple figures if anyone could confirm :

China is out $20,000,000,000 because of problems with leases of lands because of this thing, up to 5% of Ukrainian farm land. How important is it to the Chinese? Because of pollution, toxic buildups, and interruption of the environment, (there are no bee's left in major parts of China), between 30 and 40 percent of farm, grazing, and orchard land is unusable. Over 1 billion Chinese will depend on this foreign produced food to meet basic nutritional needs.

Sounds like the Maoists are pretty serious.

 

[Cackalacky]

Who said anything about Kiev?

There is still nostalgia for the Soviet way of life in some regions of the former states. In the last 5 years or so we have now seen Russia take part in very similar activities in Georgia and now Ukraine. They are still large communities in Belarus, Kazakhstan, Moldova, Estonia and Latvia. I am not saying anything is imminent. Rather, when unrest occurs in this region, you better believe Putin will lead the way given their ever increasing oil and gas bankroll combined with the west's conflict fatigue.

This is what I am pointing to. If these regions want to leave in a democratic manner, who would stop them? How do you stop them? By force? By sanctions? Either way its not really the democratic way.

 

[Cackalacky]

Crimea solidifies ties with Russia ahead of referendum on leaving Ukraine - The Washington Post

Russia "cannot ignore cries for help"

Ukraine’s Donetsk calls for referendum, votes to restore Russian’s official status — RT News
Donetsk is at it too.

 

[enrico514]

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[enrico514]

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