Ukraine

[IrishLax]

Anyone intelligent enough to explain what the hell is exactly going on there?

 

[sparkyND]

sure, if you can trust my explanation. I'll do it a bit later on as I have a few things to take care of.

 

[gkIrish]

Anyone intelligent enough to explain what the hell is exactly going on there?

Very brief overview:

Crimea is a region of the Ukraine that used to be part of Russia. There is still a large population of people that identify as Russian in the region (60 percent I think) and Russia has military bases there. According to Russia, they sent 6,000 troops in to "protect" the Russian people living there from the Ukrainian protests of the Ukrainian president.

Russia wants the president to stay in power because he is Russia's puppet and the Ukrainian people don't want that.

 

[IrishLax]

Very brief overview:

Crimea is a region of the Ukraine that used to be part of Russia. There is still a large population of people that identify as Russian in the region (60 percent I think) and Russia has military bases there. According to Russia, they sent 6,000 troops in to "protect" the Russian people living there from the Ukrainian protests of the Ukrainian president.

Russia wants the president to stay in power because he is Russia's puppet and the Ukrainian people don't want that.

OK so where I get confused in all of this is that IF Russia is supporting the President of Ukraine, who exactly is getting pissed off an calling for other nations to help expel the Russians?

 

[GATTACA!]

So the Ukrainian people wanted the country to be integrated stronger with the European Union. Their government refused saying that would be disadvantageous to the country. Since that point there have been protests going on, but the riots started after the government passed anti protesting laws. Since then the rioting has been steadily increasing, you have all seen the pictures of Kiev charred after the Feb 18-20 riots which left close to 100 dead and thousands injured.

Before and after

Now Russia has stepped in and basically invaded the country taking control of the crimean peninsula. Problem is the Ukraine is a sovereign nation, and the people obviously don't want to be living in a military state run by another country.

 

[wizards8507]

Long story short, Putin is reassembling the USSR and Obama don't GAF.

 

[chicago51]

Interestingly enough the US and UK have a treaty with Ukraine signed 1994 to protect them if they are directly attacked.

I worry about a "Guns of August" scenario. They say when everyone forgets about the last great economic crash we have another great crash and similarly when everyone forgets (or is too young to know about) the last great war is when you typically have the next great (as in large scale) war.

 

[Cackalacky]

OK so where I get confused in all of this is that IF Russia is supporting the President of Ukraine, who exactly is getting pissed off an calling for other nations to help expel the Russians?

There is also the Budapest Memorandum:

The "Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances" is a diplomatic memorandum that was signed in December 1994 by Ukraine, Russia, the United States, and the United Kingdom.

It is not a formal treaty, but rather, a diplomatic document under which signatories made promises to each other as part of the denuclearization of former Soviet republics after the dissolution of the Soviet Union.

Under the memorandum, Ukraine promised to remove all Soviet-era nuclear weapons from its territory, send them to disarmament facilities in Russia, and sign the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty. Ukraine kept these promises.

In return, Russia and the Western signatory countries essentially consecrated the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine as an independent state. They did so by applying the principles of territorial integrity and nonintervention in 1975 Helsinki Final Act -- a Cold War-era treaty signed by 35 states including the Soviet Union -- to an independent post-Soviet Ukraine.

All sides agreed that no such occupation or acquisition will be recognized as legal and that the signatories would "consult in the event a situation arises which raises a question concerning these commitments."

The Ukranian public believes the US and UK should intercede because they followed through with the Budapest Memorandum.

 

[chicago51]

There is also the Budapest Memorandum:
The Ukranian public believes the US and UK should intercede because they followed through with the Budapest Memorandum.

Reps for figuring out the name of the treaty I was referring too.

 

[Whiskeyjack]

Ukraine borders Russia, and has been one of Russia's client states for hundreds of years. The eastern parts of Ukraine are very pro-Russian, and the western parts are very pro-EU/ NATO. The protesters want a new government that will break away from Russian influence and move toward the EU/ NATO.

Russia leases several military bases in Ukraine, and it's naval fleet in the Black Sea is based out of Sevastapol (a Ukrainian city). Then factor in the long history/ ethnic ties between the two countries, vital trade routes/ relationships, etc., and it becomes pretty clear why Ukraine is of critical strategic importance to Russia.

Meanwhile, American hawks with a hard-on to reignite the Cold War are tripping over themselves to make a case for why we must intervene militarily in another nation that has little to no impact on our own vital interests.

 

[Fbolt]

Long story short, Putin is reassembling the USSR and Obama don't GAF.

sitrep: Charlie Foxtrot

The Ukrainian people are not all behind the Ukrainian govt. Very split geographically with the Crimean peninsula pro Russian along with the Eastern half. The Western half is pro West/EU.

 

[T Town Tommy]

Ukraine seen the writing on the wall when Obama pulled the plans for missile defense in Eastern Europe. If he would have kept course, we would not be seeing this issue today. Putin has taken every advantage of the President's inability to see Russia as the largest geopolitical threat to US interests and now we have what amounts to a serious quandry.

 

[kmoose]

This whole situation is such a sad thing. I spent 3 weeks in Ukraine, on business, back in 2007. We worked in Kiev, Odessa, Kharkov, Uzghorod, Koval, and Lvov. One of the things that we (my colleague and I) both commented on, was how infinitely optimistic the Ukrainian people seemed to be. They had only been independent of the Soviet Union for about 15 years, and people were giddy about the possibilities. Of all of the Soviet Republics, being ruled by the Russians probably stung most, in Ukraine. Moscow, you see, was not only the center of power from which the Soviets subjugated their satellites, it is also a city that was founded by a Ukrainian prince.

 

[T Town Tommy]

Ukraine borders Russia, and has been one of Russia's client states for hundreds of years. The eastern parts of Ukraine are very pro-Russian, and the western parts are very pro-EU/ NATO. The protesters want a new government that will break away from Russian influence and move toward the EU/ NATO.

Russia leases several military bases in Ukraine, and it's naval fleet in the Black Sea is based out of Sevastapol (a Ukrainian city). Then factor in the long history/ ethnic ties between the two countries, vital trade routes/ relationships, etc., and it becomes pretty clear why Ukraine is of critical strategic importance to Russia.

Meanwhile, American hawks with a hard-on to reignite the Cold War are tripping over themselves to make a case for why we must intervene militarily in another nation that has little to no impact on our own vital interests.

I don't believe the hawks are pushing for military intervention. What they are doing is showing our President's inability to lead in foreign affairs. The table was basically set for Obama in eastern Europe when he took office. What he has done from day one is pis* any chance he has at stabilizing the area from Russian influence, expansion, etc.

 

[gkIrish]

Sad to see all this happening especially since both countries share the same religion. Would think that would be a point of unity.

 

[chicago51]

Ukraine borders Russia, and has been one of Russia's client states for hundreds of years. The eastern parts of Ukraine are very pro-Russian, and the western parts are very pro-EU/ NATO. The protesters want a new government that will break away from Russian influence and move toward the EU/ NATO.

Russia leases several military bases in Ukraine, and it's naval fleet in the Black Sea is based out of Sevastapol (a Ukrainian city). Then factor in the long history/ ethnic ties between the two countries, vital trade routes/ relationships, etc., and it becomes pretty clear why Ukraine is of critical strategic importance to Russia.

Meanwhile, American hawks with a hard-on to reignite the Cold War are tripping over themselves to make a case for why we must intervene militarily in another nation that has little to no impact on our own vital interests.

Yes the centrist Democrats and the mainstream Republicans are gushing to restart the cold war. John McCain is having a field day on the Senate floor.

 

[Buster Bluth]

It's worth mentioning that Russia and Friends offered an economic deal to Ukraine is was far superior to the deal that the EU offered. It was like $15bil vs $5bil in economic incentives. Their (corrupt) President wasn't exactly in the wrong there. Besides, deciding to pursue EU membership means pretty precipitous standard of living increases (I.e. welfare increases/state enlargement) and it gets pretty expensive.

While the EU and the US will tote the Budapest dealio, they also make a deal with Gorbachev on Co that if the Soviets would let East Germany join West Germnay/NATO/EU then they'd promise not to expand eastward and eat up the buffer states, which they did.

I can't fault Putin one bit for acting how they did. We would do the exact same thing, and I would argue we kinda tried to with Cuba via the Bay of Pigs and whatnot. If Russia wants more than Crimea, then it could get hairy.

 

[phillyirish]

Russia leases a naval port in Sevastopol in the Crime that houses their Baltic fleet. With Ukraine trying to break free from Russia Influence, there is no way Russia will let its main strategic port in the south be jeopardized. So Russia used its forces from the Naval base to seize important airports and then used these to fly in additional troops.

The iffy area is that most of the Crimea is staunchly pro-russia. Though they aren't an oppressed minority or anything, they definitely support the Russian incursion.

Also note that the Russian economy severely tanked today. I believe that economic sanctions will be enough to severely hurt Russia. Although, I see Putin as too arrogant to back down from threats and sanctions, this dispute could harshly affect the long stagnant Russia economy trying to rebuild.

 

[Cackalacky]

It's worth mentioning that Russia and Friends offered an economic deal to Ukraine is was far superior to the deal that the EU offered. It was like $15bil vs $5bil in economic incentives. Their (corrupt) President wasn't exactly in the wrong there. Besides, deciding to pursue EU membership means pretty precipitous standard of living increases (I.e. welfare increases/state enlargement) and it gets pretty expensive.

While the EU and the US will tote the Budapest dealio, they also make a deal with Gorbachev on Co that if the Soviets would let East Germany join West Germnay/NATO/EU then they'd promise not to expand eastward and eat up the buffer states, which they did.

I can't fault Putin one bit for acting how they did. We would do the exact same thing, and I would argue we kinda tried to with Cuba via the Bay of Pigs and whatnot.

All right on. here. NATO is munching up ex-USSR territories over the last 20 years. If Ukraine goes to the EU, that puts a large NATO Territory 450 miles from Moscow.

 

[tussin]

Meanwhile, American hawks with a hard-on to reignite the Cold War are tripping over themselves to make a case for why we must intervene militarily in another nation that has little to no impact on our own vital interests.

Ehhh, the US does have something to gain from a pro-EU Ukraine, namely natural gas exports to Ukraine. Ukraine could potentially provide a foothold to nat. gas exports to the rest of the EU. The problems with the current situation (from the nat. gas / US export perspective) is that Ukraine is currently buying nat. gas from Russia at almost 50% below market rate and significantly behind payments for the gas (despite the pay cut).

 

[Buster Bluth]

Long story short, Putin is reassembling the USSR and Obama don't GAF.

That's a kinda silly way to look at it.

There isn't a sane leader in the world that would fight Russia for Ukraine. Putin knows it; everybody knows it.

People are also kidding themselves if they think that the US/UK/EU/NATO strategic minds weren't acting in the first place to wedge Ukraine away from Russia and into the "western world." It shares similarities with how Nixon's crew began the process of westernizing China and pulling them away from Moscow.

 

[chicago51]

All right on. here. NATO is munching up ex-USSR territories over the last 20 years. If Ukraine goes to the EU, that puts a large NATO Territory 450 miles from Moscow.

Exactly

NATO was set up to "play defense" against Soviet Communism. In recent decades though it has been expansionist and from Russia's viewpoint even offensive.

I don't blame the Russians and Putin for reacting how they did. I think it is important to play devil's advocate sometimes and look at things from the different perspectives.

 

[Buster Bluth]

All right on. here. NATO is munching up ex-USSR territories over the last 20 years. If Ukraine goes to the EU, that puts a large NATO Territory 450 miles from Moscow.

Let alone with anti-ICBM networks installed...

 

[Cackalacky]

Let alone with anti-ICBM networks installed...

Bingo. Cash money bro. 1st strike capabilities even possible.

 

[Buster Bluth]

Ukraine seen the writing on the wall when Obama pulled the plans for missile defense in Eastern Europe. If he would have kept course, we would not be seeing this issue today. Putin has taken every advantage of the President's inability to see Russia as the largest geopolitical threat to US interests and now we have what amounts to a serious quandry.

Wut.

 

[phillyirish]

Also note that the Russian Navy issued an ultimatum to the Ukrainian forces in the Crimea still holding out and refused to abandon their post. Probably an empty threat, put if shots are fired this could get real ugly.

 

[Rizzophil]

Ukraine seen the writing on the wall when Obama pulled the plans for missile defense in Eastern Europe. If he would have kept course, we would not be seeing this issue today. Putin has taken every advantage of the President's inability to see Russia as the largest geopolitical threat to US interests and now we have what amounts to a serious quandry.

Good post Tommy. The whole world is watching the USA get duped by Russia.

Politics: Flashback: Chris Matthews and MSNBC trash Romney for suggesting Russia might be a problem | Best of Cain

 

[irishog77]

This is all you need to know about the situation:

 

[tussin]

BTW, anyone looking for a no-frill timeline of events:

Timeline: Ukraine's political crisis - Europe - Al Jazeera English

 

[Whiskeyjack]

Ukraine seen the writing on the wall when Obama pulled the plans for missile defense in Eastern Europe. If he would have kept course, we would not be seeing this issue today. Putin has taken every advantage of the President's inability to see Russia as the largest geopolitical threat to US interests and now we have what amounts to a serious quandry.

That, in itself, was a very provocative move. Who would Ukraine possibly need to be defended against but Russia? Would you have felt comfortable if the Russians decided to implement a DMZ just south of our own border, ostensibly to "maintain peace in the region"?

I don't believe the hawks are pushing for military intervention. What they are doing is showing our President's inability to lead in foreign affairs. The table was basically set for Obama in eastern Europe when he took office. What he has done from day one is pis* any chance he has at stabilizing the area from Russian influence, expansion, etc.

If intervention is off the table, what should we have done differently? Armed the protestors? Paid off their $35b in debt? Sent Putin a strongly-worded letter?

Russia is a great power. Ukraine is on Russia's door-step. I'd suggest we have virtually no power to influence the situation there is a positive way.