Turnovers & Penalties

[Whiskeyjack]

Our very own Rocket89 examines ND's turnovers and penalties from an historical perspective.

We'll also see where the numbers take Brian Kelly over the next few seasons. His -15 turnover ratio from last season sticks out like a sore thumb, but it's literally impossible to sustain that kind of ratio. The 2011 season was the very definition of unlucky in terms of turnovers. However, if you subscribe to the theory that teams who have a double-digit turnover ratio in the negative are bound to equal or improve upon their record, 2012 might surprise some people.

That theory applied to 12 teams after the 2010 season, and 10 of those programs either equaled or bettered their wins in 2011. Three teams equaled their wins, 7 teams improved (including 4 of the 5 BCS teams**), and only Middle Tennessee State and Fresno did worse.

 

[woolybug25]

That's an interesting article. I like the statistical study he linked about Phil Steele's theory on TO ratios. There is some statistical evidence that we will have a better than 80% chance to finish with at least 8 wins.

If you ever read articles from Phil Steele, he has a theory that a team that has forced double digit turnovers in excess of the times they turned the ball over will either equal their win total the following year, or will decrease their wins. As a corollary, a team who has turned the ball over double digit times more than they forced turnovers, will at least equal their win total the following year, or will increase their wins.

College Football Win Totals and Turnovers Analysis « Before Visiting The Sportsbook

 

[NDhoosier]

Definitely agree with the first "report." People just dont seem to realize how unlucky we were last year and how unlikely we will have that many turnovers again. I think we do increase our win total because I see out TO margin getting much better and turnovers we give away to decrease. The chances of us having the same TO problem as last year is slim... We have a better shot of getting Hargreaves AND Alexander.

 

[ACamp1900]

Honestly last year was the harder to deal with than any other (including 07) since I've been a fan... That was a really good team... and they had a schedule that was as set up as well as it had been in years... It should have been an easy 10 win season...

Even with everything that went wrong it wasn't a 'bad' year... problem is even if they turn the TO ratio around they may still only win 8 just due the the schedule... I'm dying to see where this team is in four years... I'm really hoping the wheels stop spinning (finally) and they get some traction.

 

[Rhode Irish]

Definitely agree with the first "report." People just dont seem to realize how unlucky we were last year and how unlikely we will have that many turnovers again. I think we do increase our win total because I see out TO margin getting much better and turnovers we give away to decrease. The chances of us having the same TO problem as last year is slim... We have a better shot of getting Hargreaves AND Alexander.

Which people are those??

 

[Rhode Irish]

The chart he linked to in the article is fantastic. The analysis seems to confirm my intuition on this - that turnovers, especially fumbles, are at least partially random and tend to balance out over time. That seems to bode well for next season in the abstract.

The problem, as I see it, is that the ND defense does not seem to be designed to produce turnovers. The mentality seems to be to play it conservative and make the other team put together a dozen-plus plays in succession to move the ball down the field. In addition to the lack of aggressiveness in the scheme, there is still a lack of (proven) playmakers at the back end of the defense. Unless the secondary really surprises, its hard for me to see where they are going to increase the number of interceptions. Also, the unquestioned best player and leader of the defense is more of a "solid" type of player than a turnover-producing machine. That isn't a knock on Manti at all; I'm as big of a Manti fan as there is. I just think his game is a bit more Jerod Mayo type of player. He has forced 2 fumbles in his career and hasn't had a pick. A large part of that is his role in the defense, but who is the playmaker elsewhere on the D that is going to create turnovers?

That puts a ton of pressure on the offense to make up a lot of that -15 turnover margin. Tommy Rees accounted for 19 turnovers (14 INT and 5 fumbles), and as Lou Somogyi points out in a recent piece on 247, other ND QBs have struggled with ball control early in their careers only to improve as they gained experience (Theissman and Beuerlein - 18 INTs as freshmen; Clausen - 17 as a soph; Montana threw 8 in only 66 attempts [more than half of what Rees threw in about 1/6th as many attempts]). So maybe we should expect some improvement from Rees, if he is the starter. But most of us hope that somebody else will win the job, which will result in another year with a first-year-starter at QB and no guarantee of an improvement in the turnover situation.

We could, and probably should, improve the number of fumbles we have and the number we lose. Both were higher than historical averages last season, and we lost ~5% more than usual (which as you'd expect is generally close to a 50/50 proposition). That would certainly help, but the thing that hurt us the worst last season were the timing and results of some of the turnovers lost and created. We had 29 turnovers last year, but three of them specifically could have dramatically changed the season if they had gone the other way, or even resulted in less drastic consequences. The Gray goal line fumble/USF return for TD; the Robinson goal line fumble/recovery for UM TD; and the Crist goal line fumble/USC return for TD made the difference between 8-4 and 11-1. Three plays.

Even if we don't dramatically improve the turnover ratio, even just a little less terrible luck could make a huge difference.

 

[ndfi78]

Just thinking about those three plays makes me sick to my stomach. Literally.

 

[Grahambo]

Great insight with those articles but for anybody who has watched football like the way a lot of us do on all levels, you could easily see how unlucky last season was in regards to turnovers. It simply was stunning.

 

[irish1958]

Just thinking about those three plays makes me sick to my stomach. Literally.

Me too😭
And I was having a good day. Played golf; shot an 85 (par 70); was having a cold brew and then I read this😳 😭😭😭

 

[tommyIRISH23]

Great points. But, the variables involved in that prediction are not equal from last year to this year. New secondary, loss of the best WR in ND history who accounted for a HUGE percentage of our offensive numbers is being replaced by a bunch of talented, but unproved players. If Floyd weren't Rees' security blanket, itd be safe to say we'd have many more TO's last season.

Now, are 5 good players who are productive more valuable than 1 record setting super star? Can they make up such a significant loss? We better hope so. I think we'll overwhelm defenses with all of our options and (finally!) speed.

 

[ndfi78]

Great points. But, the variables involved in that prediction are not equal from last year to this year. New secondary, loss of the best WR in ND history who accounted for a HUGE percentage of our offensive numbers is being replaced by a bunch of talented, but unproved players. If Floyd weren't Rees' security blanket, itd be safe to say we'd have many more TO's last season.

Now, are 5 good players who are productive more valuable than 1 record setting super star? Can they make up such a significant loss? We better hope so. I think we'll overwhelm defenses with all of our options and (finally!) speed.

I don't know, how many of those INT's were because Rees was trying to force it into Floyd? I seem to remember a couple but that might be my faulty memory.