The Optimal Notre Dame Scheduling Model

[IrishLax]

The reason ND doesn't say firm no to outreach is that there are always chances that teams already on the schedule (Texas, Bama, etc.) cancel. So you keep backup options in your pocket, incase you have to do what we did with BYU this year.

The other schools are going to tell them straight up to fuck off because no one likes this team and schedules are already set years in advance.

 

[notredomer23]

I have enjoyed the two times I've been in Lubbock for work. Great Mexican and Tex Mex food and super cheap. Wouldn't mind one bit ND going down to Lubbock and putting that charlatan Cody Campbell 6 feet under.

 

[Veritate Duce Progredi]

Texas Tech might be the least interesting “ranked” match up we could set up. I’d rather play another random ACC game than them.

I, respectfully, disagree. The Texas Tech coach has run his mouth constantly about ND, always offering his very important opinion. Their entire administration attempted to strongarm the country into allowing a QB who violated one of the only remaining sacred laws of sports.

I would be overwhelmingly in favor of stomping an Irish hole in their program.

 

[KPENN]

Notre Dame is getting to the point where they can’t be turning their nose to too many teams if it wants to remain independent. They could do a lot worse and uninteresting than Texas Tech in my opinion

 

[IrishLax]

This is probably the best way to look at strength of schedule. Ideally, you would play ~3-4 teams ranked 10-20, as few teams as possible ranked 21-35 (these are the ones that are good enough to beat anyone but you don't get credit for beating them), and then a bunch of tomato cans (teams ranked 50+). That's the easiest possible schedule while also giving you the opportunity for a couple quality wins.



Notre Dame has 9 teams in the "Tomato Can" range, and the big fear would be SMU/BYU have bad seasons and do not count as quality wins.

 

[NDPhilly]

This is probably the best way to look at strength of schedule. Ideally, you would play ~3-4 teams ranked 10-20, as few teams as possible ranked 21-35 (these are the ones that are good enough to beat anyone but you don't get credit for beating them), and then a bunch of tomato cans (teams ranked 50+). That's the easiest possible schedule while also giving you the opportunity for a couple quality wins.

In theory, yes. But so many teams not having a pulse on our schedule last year certainly hurt us in the SOS / SOR metrics they flashed on the screen all of November.

Its incredible that literally all of Wisconsin, MSU, UNC, Syracuse, BC, Stanford, and Purdue, P4 schools with real football history, are down simultaneously. And not just down, its a real possibility none of those 7 even make a bowl game.

 

[IrishLax]

In theory, yes. But so many teams not having a pulse on our schedule last year certainly hurt us in the SOS / SOR metrics they flashed on the screen all of November.

Its incredible that literally all of Wisconsin, MSU, UNC, Syracuse, BC, Stanford, and Purdue, P4 schools with real football history, are down simultaneously. And not just down, its a real possibility none of those 6 even make a bowl game.

There are a lot of things that killed us, including Navy -- who was ranked in the Coaches and AP Poll -- somehow not counting as a "quality win." The arbitrary cutoff at 25 is crazy in this day and age.

 

[Dale]

Don’t switch up on this sentiment when you lose again Sark, or I guess you may not be there anyways

 

[Katzenboyer]

Don’t switch up on this sentiment when you lose again Sark, or I guess you may not be there anyways

I have to imagine Texas fans want this guy to just STFU already. He is constantly complaining about schedules.

I know I'd be pissed off if I were a Longhorn fan.

 

[Dale]

The oddsmakers say he’s going to go 9 - 3, and he’s been doing a press tour like he believes it all offseason.

 

[Ndaccountant]

The oddsmakers say he’s going to go 9 - 3, and he’s been doing a press tour like he believes it all offseason.

True. But TBF, if Texas goes 9-3 and Indiana goes 10-2, who do you think is better positioned in the eyes of the committee? Assume both lose to OSU, my guess is Indiana. Which honestly shouldn't be the case and I think he is right.

 

[Dale]

True. But TBF, if Texas goes 9-3 and Indiana goes 10-2, who do you think is better positioned in the eyes of the committee? Assume both lose to OSU, my guess is Indiana. Which honestly shouldn't be the case and I think he is right.

I think it depends how it looks, and Sark will like you to focus on a close loss at OSU last year, but the reality is it did not look good last season, all season.

If they go 9 - 3 losing to OSU, @ LSU and OU let’s say and comfortably beat most other teams including ranked A&M and Ole Miss sure they should be a Top 12 team.

But last season it was 9 - 3 with loss to 4 - 8 UF, barely beat Kentucky, barely beat Miss St, barely beat Vandy, crunched by UGA (again), even flirted with Arkansas. Everyone also knows Mateer was still hurt in the OU game. It wasn’t an impressive season.

 

[stlnd01]

True. But TBF, if Texas goes 9-3 and Indiana goes 10-2, who do you think is better positioned in the eyes of the committee? Assume both lose to OSU, my guess is Indiana. Which honestly shouldn't be the case and I think he is right.

Yep.
Texas plays five teams in the preseason top 11.
Indiana plays four in the top 17 (three of which are 14th or higher).
A 9-3 Texas still probably has better wins than an 8-2 Indiana, and is far more likely to have at least one win over a playoff team.

Where Sark is wrong is in suggesting that it's bad to play Ohio State. Unless Texas gets their doors blown off - which they shouldn't, especially at home - it's an chance to show they belong, even if they lose. A close loss to Ohio State SHOULD count more than blowing out a G5. It'll also give them a common opponent with Indiana, Oregon, and other potential playoff contenders in USC and Michigan. If they win, they'd have to really blow their SEC schedule to miss the playoffs. See it as an opportunity, Steve!

 

[Ndaccountant]

I think it depends how it looks, and Sark will like you to focus on a close loss at OSU last year, but the reality is it did not look good last season, all season.

If they go 9 - 3 losing to OSU, @ LSU and OU let’s say and comfortably beat most other teams including ranked A&M and Ole Miss sure they should be a Top 12 team.

But last season it was 9 - 3 with loss to 4 - 8 UF, barely beat Kentucky, barely beat Miss St, barely beat Vandy, crunched by UGA (again), even flirted with Arkansas. Everyone also knows Mateer was still hurt in the OU game. It wasn’t an impressive season.

I agree last year they did not have a leg to stand on. But I do think there is merit for not penalizing teams willing to go out of conference and losing to a top team. While that helps ND, I still think the race to dumb down schedules should not go unpunished.

 

[Katzenboyer]

Where Sark is wrong is in suggesting that it's bad to play Ohio State. Unless Texas gets their doors blown off - which they shouldn't, especially at home - it's an chance to show they belong, even if they lose. A close loss to Ohio State SHOULD count more than blowing out a G5. It'll also give them a common opponent with Indiana, Oregon, and other potential playoff contenders in USC and Michigan. If they win, they'd have to really blow their SEC schedule to miss the playoffs. See it as an opportunity, Steve!

That's my biggest problem with him. He continues to think that Texas got left out because of the close loss in Columbus; that's decidedly not the case.

As Dale points out, losing to 4-8 Florida, getting their doors blown off against UGA, and close wins against 5-7 Kentucky and 5-8 Miss. State, is ultimately what did them in.

 

[tirishman505]

I have to imagine Texas fans want this guy to just STFU already. He is constantly complaining about schedules.

I know I'd be pissed off if I were a Longhorn fan.

This. It’s the same vibe I get when Lincoln Riley bitches about travel. The Cover 3 guys were roasting him recently, anticipating how much complaining he was going to do leading up to and after this season’s Rutgers game. It struck me then how that kind of leadership has to filter throughout the program. Just a remarkable self own.

 

[NDPhilly]

Texas was power rated ~14 last year. Absolute disaster with all their talent, but they act like a team that was power rated top 5 like us. Shit USC was power rated higher on most predictive rankings by year end.

 

[NotKoon]

He knows he’s going to get fired if the miss the playoffs and this is a desperate attempt to create an argument for keeping his job.

As for the series with ND. If things go well this season, I think they play. If they don’t and they poach Cig, it’s off. If they poach Elko, i think it stays on. Any other candidate that has a realistic shot at the job, i think its up in the air

 

[Katzenboyer]

He knows he’s going to get fired if the miss the playoffs and this is a desperate attempt to create an argument for keeping his job.

As for the series with ND. If things go well this season, I think they play. If they don’t and they poach Cig, it’s off. If they poach Elko, i think it stays on. Any other candidate that has a realistic shot at the job, i think its up in the air

I don't think Cignetti is going anywhere. He's finishing his career in Bloomington.

Getting Elko? Hooooo boy would that be something.

 

[Some Irish Bloke]

True. But TBF, if Texas goes 9-3 and Indiana goes 10-2, who do you think is better positioned in the eyes of the committee? Assume both lose to OSU, my guess is Indiana. Which honestly shouldn't be the case and I think he is right.

Negative. SOR/SOS should come into play there. Honestly, 9-3 with the preseason #1 SOS Texas should absolutely trump IU with #25.

I'm not even defending Sark directly here (gross), but the committee could make a statement by rewarding the teams who played the tough games.

What's a better measuring stick for a CFP resume? Losing to OSU by 3 or beating the piss out of Missouri St or Montana by 60? Not even close, IMO.

Otherwise, the Committee is further incentivizing these cowardly schedules, watering down September schedules, which is ruining the sport.