The Optimal Notre Dame Scheduling Model

[BleedBlueGold]

It's fine to discuss what we, as fans, want or don't want. But the problem is real: The committee puts a lot of weighting on conference champions (and that 13th game) and other coaches are voicing their opinions about ND not doing either.

Look, I'm with everyone else in that I'd prefer ND maintain their independent scheduling ways. None of these coaches are backing up their statements with actual facts against ND's scheduling. It's been quite comical, actually. But the perception is bigger than the reality here. I hope ND can stay their course, but the first time a ND team who is a legit contender gets left out of the playoffs (ala TCU/Baylor), shit is going to hit the fan and the committee will just look at us and say, "we warned you."

Note: I get that the vast majority of people (including myself) feel that a 12-0 ND team will never be left out of the playoffs. But there is a real threat that any 12-1 Conference Champion team takes a spot over a 12-0 non-conference champion ND team. I've pointed this out along with numerous others that a clear way to fix this is to have an 8-team playoff. IF that happens, I think ND's independent status goes unaffected. But if it doesn't (or at least until it does), ND will have to continue scheduling very difficult schedules (and go undefeated) to "make up" for the fact that they don't play a conference championship (or 13th game). I seriously think the committee spoke loud and clear last season.

 

[Cali_domer]

Most teams have a nine-game conference schedule. That leaves three games that are flexible every year.

Temple.
UMass.
Navy.

What exactly do you want that's easier than Temple, UMass, and Navy? Anything less than that would be, frankly, embarrassing. Five ACC games plus USC, Stanford, and two other Power 5 teams is no more difficult than most teams' conference slate. Obviously, you're subject to the ups and downs of your opponent and it's been shit luck that Stanford has been "up" lately. Phil Steele has us at the #61 SOS this year. That's not a "gauntlet." If anything, we need to have a more difficult schedule, not less.

Think about it from the playoff committee's perspective. Most candidates for the playoff will have eleven Power 5 opponents. Nine conference games, one out-of-conference Power 5 opponent, and a conference championship game. Our schedule is pretty weak from that perspective.


I'd rather lose to Stanford in a good game than beat Eastern Tennessee 60-3. I just would.

You think we would schedule Eastern Tennessee? We never would, we would have one game available and knowing ND it would be a neutral site game against a Tier one opponent. Our stinker games would be Wake Forest(Who we already played) and Duke type games.

 

[ACamp1900]

I'd rather lose to Stanford in a good game than beat Eastern Tennessee 60-3. I just would.

 

[wizards8507]

You think we would schedule Eastern Tennessee? We never would, we would have one game available and knowing ND it would be a neutral site game against a Tier one opponent. Our stinker games would be Wake Forest(Who we already played) and Duke type games.

You hit the nail on the head with the bolded. I didn't even include the ACC stinkers because we have no say in that. Counting them, we have at least four stinker games this season. As I said:

What exactly do you want that's easier than Temple, UMass, and Navy?

"Boo hoo, how are we ever going to win 10 or 11 games this season when we play Clemson AND Virginia AND Boston College," said no Florida State fan ever.

"Boo hoo, how are we ever going to win 10 or 11 games this season when we play Ole Miss AND Auburn AND Georgia AND LSU," said no Alabama fan ever.

Honestly, people need to nut up about our strength of schedule. It's not that hard. If we want to win playoff-caliber numbers of games, we need to play playoff-caliber football games.

 

[wizards8507]

You would too, you just don't want to admit it. Florida State last year was the most fun I've ever had watching a sporting event until the last twenty seconds.

 

[ACamp1900]

I'm a Notre Dame fan, I never want to see them lose... and there was nothing at all fun about FSU, it was a nightmare

 

[BleedBlueGold]

Perhaps we differ on the term cupcake. I look at a cupcake as being UMASS, where there is literally no chance to lose unless something unreal happens. Cupcakes are FCS team or teams that routinely finish with 3 or 4 wins each year. That has not been Navy since 2003. Since that year, Navy has had 7 or less wins one time. Once.

Yes, their old schedules read like a C-USA team, but they won and won consistently. Additionally, when they go up against bigger name schools, they often have a punchers chance and more often than not, end up in a competitive game. That is not a cupcake to me.

Notable games since 2006 outside of ND:
2014 - Lost to OSU by 17, but the score was inflated by a last minute TD by OSU.
Lost to Rutgers by 7. Beat Temple, SDSU & SJSU
2013 - Beat Pitt, Indiana, lost to Duke in a blowout
2012 - Beat Indiana, ECU, CMU, lost in blowouts to ASU & PSU
2011 - Lost to South Carolina by 7, Rutgers by 1, ECU by 3 (this was their one losing season since 2003)
2010 - Lost to Maryland by 3, beat Wake, La Tech, CMU & ECU
2009 - Lost to Ohio State by 4, Beat La Tech, Mizzou, Wake
2008 - Beat Wake, Rutgers, Temple lost to Duke and Wake in the bowl game
2007 - Beat Wake, Pitt, Duke Temple lost to Utah by 3, lost to Rutgers and Wake
2006 - Beat Stanford, Duke, ECU, Uconn, Temple lost to BC by 1

To add to your defense: I'm pretty sure it's been documented that schools who've played Navy, either lose the following week, or they squeak by. Navy is not a cupcake. They're either a threat to beat your, or a threat to cause a loss the following week.

 

[Cali_domer]

You hit the nail on the head with the bolded. I didn't even include the ACC stinkers because we have no say in that. Counting them, we have at least four stinker games this season. As I said:

What exactly do you want that's easier than Temple, UMass, and Navy?

"Boo hoo, how are we ever going to win 10 or 11 games this season when we play Clemson AND Virginia AND Boston College," said no Florida State fan ever.

"Boo hoo, how are we ever going to win 10 or 11 games this season when we play Ole Miss AND Auburn AND Georgia AND LSU," said no Alabama fan ever.

Honestly, people need to nut up about our strength of schedule. It's not that hard. If we want to win playoff-caliber numbers of games, we need to play playoff-caliber football games.

Lol..... I end with this, we aren't independent anymore, BYU and Army are the only "true" independents. So continue to believe what you want.

 

[wizards8507]

To add to your defense: I'm pretty sure it's been documented that schools who've played Navy, either lose the following week, or they squeak by. Navy is not a cupcake. They're either a threat to beat your, or a threat to cause a loss the following week.

I don't care, it's an attitude thing. Someone posted a BK article about Navy crybabying and I think it was spot-on. You would never, ever, ever see an Alabama or LSU or Florida State fan crying about how terrible it is that you "have to" play Navy every year. Those teams would be celebrating an instant win added to their schedule in perpetuity.

 

[wizards8507]

Lol..... I end with this, we aren't independent anymore, BYU and Army are the only "true" independents. So continue to believe what you want.

Nobody wants to answer my question that I've asked very directly several times.

What exactly do you want that's easier than Temple, UMass, and Navy?

 

[Cali_domer]

Nobody wants to answer my question that I've asked very directly several times.

What exactly do you want that's easier than Temple, UMass, and Navy?

Navy isn't easy(Not lately), Temple has been picked by many to win the AAC, UMass sucks and should have never been scheduled.

 

[BleedBlueGold]

The first team is on Clemson's schedule. The "vs" team is on ND's schedule.

Wofford vs UMass
Appalachian State vs Navy
Louisville vs Texas
BYE
Notre Dame vs Clemson
GA Tech vs GA Tech
Boston College vs Boston College
Miami vs Pitt
NC State vs Temple
FSU vs USC
Syracuse vs Virginia
Wake Forrest vs Wake Forrest
Middle of the road Power 5 team (South Carolina?) vs Stanford
ACC Championship game - This is the only area ND fails to stack up against Clemson's schedule (aside from the FCS opponents where ND takes the nod).

Look at it comparatively, I can see why other schools and the committee would frown upon putting ND in the playoffs w/o playing a 13th game (be it a top tier team or a conf. champ). I think ND would get killed for scheduling FCS teams. I'm glad they don't. But I think they honestly need to consider a 13th game.

 

[Cackalacky]

The first team is on Clemson's schedule. The "vs" team is on ND's schedule.

Wofford vs UMass
Appalachian State vs Navy
Louisville vs Texas
BYE
Notre Dame vs Clemson
GA Tech vs GA Tech
Boston College vs Boston College
Miami vs Pitt
NC State vs Temple
FSU vs USC
Syracuse vs Virginia
Wake Forrest vs Wake Forrest
Middle of the road Power 5 team (South Carolina?) vs Stanford
ACC Championship game - This is the only area ND fails to stack up against Clemson's schedule (aside from the FCS opponents where ND takes the nod).

Look at it comparatively, I can see why other schools and the committee would frown upon putting ND in the playoffs w/o playing a 13th game (be it a top tier team or a conf. champ). I think ND would get killed for scheduling FCS teams. I'm glad they don't. But I think they honestly need to consider a 13th game.

I have said it a billion times before. ND has to have a 13th game with 1 loss. Maybe if ND is one of 2 undefeated they will get in. I FIRMLY believe that given a few top 5 teams with no or 1 losses, those that play a 13th game will always get the nod ahead of ND with 1 loss and 12 games.

 

[BleedBlueGold]

I have said it a billion times before. ND has to have a 13th game with 1 loss. Maybe if ND is one of 2 undefeated they will get in. I FIRMLY believe that given a few top 5 teams with no or 1 losses, those that play a 13th game will always get the nod ahead of ND with 1 loss and 12 games.

I agree. That 13th game is a conf. championship game for most. A one-loss ND team most likely will always get left out based on this alone if only four teams are making the playoffs. Like I said earlier, an eight-team playoff makes this almost a moot discussion. But then at that point, you'll still be debating 1 and 2-loss teams and who's more deserving of at large bids (given there would be potentially 5 automatic bids based on the power 5 conference champs).

 

[ACamp1900]

We should schedule Hawaii as our 13th game every year, just to piss everyone else off......

 

[IrishJayhawk]

To add to your defense: I'm pretty sure it's been documented that schools who've played Navy, either lose the following week, or they squeak by. Navy is not a cupcake. They're either a threat to beat your, or a threat to cause a loss the following week.

^This

It's a scary percentage, actually. And it's not necessarily a loss because of injuries. It could have to do with the fact that you're preparing for something completely different when you play them.

 

[BobbyMac]

ND and BYU should play the 13th game and if the NCAA doesn't recognize it as God's Championship sue them for religious discrimination.


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[wizards8507]

It's a scary percentage, actually. And it's not necessarily a loss because of injuries. It could have to do with the fact that you're preparing for something completely different when you play them.

But scheduling commitments are long-term. There's no rule that says "Navy must run a triple-option offense in perpetuity" or that USC never can. You don't make scheduling decisions based on the offense that Navy happens to run today.

 

[wizards8507]

ND and BYU should play the 13th game and if the NCAA doesn't recognize it as God's Championship sue them for religious discrimination.

I agree. If the NCAA won't sanction it as a 13th game, call it an "exhibition," hire some officials, and put it on NBC. Talking heads will love it.

 

[BobbyMac]

Navy isn't easy(Not lately), Temple has been picked by many to win the AAC, UMass sucks and should have never been scheduled.

I agree. If the NCAA won't sanction it as a 13th game, call it an "exhibition," hire some officials, and put it on NBC. Talking heads will love it.

If BYU won't, schedule Army as long as they are independent. Play the game near a large military installation like San Antonio. Give soldiers free admission and the rest of the proceeds donate to VA Hospiitals, the Wounded Warrior Foundation or something of the like.

ND can get a 13th game if that's the only criteria.

.

 

[ACamp1900]

ND and BYU should play the 13th game and if the NCAA doesn't recognize it as God's Championship sue them for religious discrimination.


.

 

[woolybug25]

Hawaii in Hawaii as our 13th, something that's already allowed by the NCAA. Negotiate the lion's share of the revenue and put a bye before it, by scheduling it two weeks out from our 12th game. We get three byes in the season and a 13th game we are almost always guaranteed to win.

Plus, we can recruit Polynesians and Cali kids better by saying we go to Hawaii every single year. What kid doesn't want a free trip to Hawaii every year?

 

[wizards8507]

Hawaii in Hawaii as our 13th, something that's already allowed by the NCAA. Negotiate the lion's share of the revenue and put a bye before it, by scheduling it two weeks out from our 12th game. We get three byes in the season and a 13th game we are almost always guaranteed to win.

Plus, we can recruit Polynesians and Cali kids better by saying we go to Hawaii every single year. What kid doesn't want a free trip to Hawaii every year?

Isn't the "Hawai'i exemption" only good for one out of four years or some nonsense like that?

Plus, recruiting those big Samoan cats away from USC will always be a losing battle.

 

[Blaise]

Keep settling for these awesome 8 to 9 win seasons.

Rather lose to Texas 35-31 than Beat Eastern Michigan 77-3....

I could less about being in the playoff if the entire season I was bored

 

[woolybug25]

Isn't the "Hawai'i exemption" only good for one out of four years or some nonsense like that?

Plus, recruiting those big Samoan cats away from USC will always be a losing battle.

Regarding Samoan's, we already have been able to get them (Manti, Swenke, etc). You don't think guaranteeing them an opportunity to play on their home island once a year would be compelling?

Regarding the 4 years, i'm not aware of any rule like that and it's not listed with the rule in the handbook. Most teams want a home & home if they play them. Which causes an issue, in our case, we don't want that game. We'll happily play there every year to gain the 13th game and for recruiting. Here is the complete rule straight from the NCAA handbook:

17.28.2 Alaska/Hawaii, Additional Football Contest
Member institutions located in Alaska and Hawaii shall be permitted to exceed, by one, the maximum number of football contests permitted under Bylaw 17.9.5.1 but otherwise shall conform to the same maximum number of contests and dates of competition permitted other members of the Association.

17.9.5.2 Annual Exemptions. [FBS/FCS]
The maximum number of football contests shall exclude the following:

(k) Hawaii, Alaska, Puerto Rico. [FBS/FCS]
Any football games played in Hawaii, Alaska or Puerto Rico,respectively, either against or under the sponsorship of an active member institution located in Hawaii, Alaska or Puerto Rico, by a Division I member institution located outside the area in question.

http://www.ncaapublications.com/productdownloads/D110.pdf

 

[wizards8507]

Regarding Samoan's, we already have been able to get them (Manti, Swenke, etc). You don't think guaranteeing them an opportunity to play on their home island once a year would be compelling?

Regarding the 4 years, i'm not aware of any rule like that and it's not listed with the rule in the handbook. Most teams want a home & home if they play them. Which causes an issue, in our case, we don't want that game. We'll happily play there every year to gain the 13th game and for recruiting. Here is the complete rule straight from the NCAA handbook:

http://www.ncaapublications.com/productdownloads/D110.pdf

(k) Hawaii, Alaska, Puerto Rico. [FBS/FCS]
Any football games played in Hawaii, Alaska or Puerto Rico,respectively, either against or under the sponsorship of an active member institution located in Hawaii, Alaska or Puerto Rico, by a Division I member institution located outside the area in question.

Since we're throwing out pie-in-the-sky suggestions, we get Navy to open a satellite campus at the Pearl Harbor base and play them in Hawai'i every year.

 

[Blaise]

I would love to play Hawaii or BYU as a 13th game every year, just to shut people up...

 

[zelezo vlk]

(k) Hawaii, Alaska, Puerto Rico. [FBS/FCS]
Any football games played in Hawaii, Alaska or Puerto Rico,respectively, either against or under the sponsorship of an active member institution located in Hawaii, Alaska or Puerto Rico, by a Division I member institution located outside the area in question.

Since we're throwing out pie-in-the-sky suggestions, we get Navy to open a satellite campus at the Pearl Harbor base and play them in Hawai'i every year.

On December 7th no less? Or is that too much?

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G900A using Tapatalk

 

[wizards8507]

On December 7th no less? Or is that too much?

Yeah, I wasn't going there. Pearl Harbor is still a fully-functioning Naval base.

 

[Dizzyphil]

13th game - play the Big 12 conference champion.