SEC Scheduling

[Ndaccountant]

I think I have been pretty fair out here. And show me where I have been trollish about ND. You seem to have an issue with me... and/or Bama. That's fine. After all, it is an Irish board. But constant complaining about another program does get old.

I think both of you were right in the argument.

First, you were correct that, from a recruiting standpoint, there is nothing for Bama to gain by playing in Wisconsin. From a respect standpoint, little upside too since everyone respects the hell out of Saban and Bama right now.

However, let's not pretend either that Bama played all these road games up North when the recruiting ground was more fertile or before the SEC became what it is today. I looked back to find when and where Bama has played true road games. Here is what I found:
2011 - @ Penn State
2010 - @ Duke
2003 - @ Hawai'i (Bowl Sub)
2002 - @ Okla
2002 - @ Hawai'i (Bowl Sub)
2000 - @ UCLA
1996 - @ NC State
1992 - @ Tulane
1991 - @ Memphis
1990 - @ SW Louisiana

As you can see, one trip in the Midwest in the last 25 years, one road trip Ok, one trip to the west coast. Bama has never consistently challenged themselves on the road in the non-conference. This isn't something new, so the strength of the SEC isn't really an excuse. Recruiting perhaps, but I think Bama has largely avoided going on the road outside the SEC.

 

[Legacy]

Ran across this detailed information when visiting the Alabama site - Roll, Bama, Roll

Cupcakes for (Almost) Everyone!

This focuses on the weakest teams in everyone's schedules.

 

[greyhammer90]

How about we do something REALLY REALLY WACKY.

8 team playoff - Power 5 conference champions automatically get in - 3 at large bids for Notre Dame, SEC #2, Pac 12 #2, or Big 12 #2.

It makes so much sense it's stupefying. The only reason I can think why this isn't the system is because we'd have nothing to talk about.

 

[Legacy]

Then, here's the rankings of everyone's non-conference strength of schedules from one site. Obviously, ND as an independent is not ranked. Every FBS team's non-conference schedule is ranked according to its opponents' average 2013 Sagarin rating.

College football's 2014 non-conference strength-of-schedule rankings

What is worth noting is that three of the top 10 schools (USC, FSU and NC) have ND on their non-conference schedule, boosting their SOS.

And despite having ND on their schedules, Purdue, Michigan and Arizona State filled up their remaining non-conference schedule with enough weak teams to rank 86th, 87th, 112th. (Alabama ranked 116th - fourth worst)

 

[Legacy]

Here are Strength of Schedules for 2014 with the NCAA method (opponents' winning percentage from 2013):

2014 College Football Strength of Schedule – NCAA Method

Here is Phil Steele's SOS rankings:
Phil Steele’s 2014 College Football Strength of Schedule Rankings

His method "combines his '9 sets of Power Ratings' with the amount of home and away games. This differs from the NCAA method which is strictly based on the opponent winning percentage from the previous year." (ND is 1st)

While ND, Ark, and Tenn just move around, Steele's method drops Texas A&M, for instance, from 5th (NCAA) to 12th. Kentucky drops from 6th (NCAA) to 15th. Alabama is 61st in Steele's overall SOS ranking

 

[anarin]

How about we do something REALLY REALLY WACKY.

8 team playoff - Power 5 conference champions automatically get in - 3 at large bids for Notre Dame, SEC #2, Pac 12 #2, or Big 12 #2.

It makes so much sense it's stupefying. The only reason I can think why this isn't the system is because we'd have nothing to talk about.

An 8 team playoff!?!?

You think the ncaa does shit that makes sense?

 

[Legacy]

NCAA relevance

NCAA relevance

An 8 team playoff!?!?

You think the ncaa does **** that makes sense?

Maybe the Power 5 will just decide to pay each player of a participating team an extra 10K for making it to the playoff. Why involve the NCAA?

Maybe an eight team playoff is possible in 2026 when the current contract ends.

 

[bobbyok1]

Then, here's the rankings of everyone's non-conference strength of schedules from one site. Obviously, ND as an independent is not ranked. Every FBS team's non-conference schedule is ranked according to its opponents' average 2013 Sagarin rating.

College football's 2014 non-conference strength-of-schedule rankings

What is worth noting is that three of the top 10 schools (USC, FSU and NC) have ND on their non-conference schedule, boosting their SOS.

And despite having ND on their schedules, Purdue, Michigan and Arizona State filled up their remaining non-conference schedule with enough weak teams to rank 86th, 87th, 112th. (Alabama ranked 116th - fourth worst)

And to further make the point (as previously argued in this thread) about weak SEC non-conference scheduling 4 of the top 10 worst non-conference (or easiest) schedules belong to SEC teams. Vanderbilt, Miss State, Alabama and Florida ranked #2-5 worst non-conference schedules. Been playing that tune for a long time now. Just play one another as the "best" conference in football and play crapping teams outside of conference then you keep the stigma going and your rankings high and who can argue otherwise. Great plan as evidenced by the last decade or so.

 

[Legacy]

And to further make the point (as previously argued in this thread) about weak SEC non-conference scheduling 4 of the top 10 worst non-conference (or easiest) schedules belong to SEC teams. Vanderbilt, Miss State, Alabama and Florida ranked #2-5 worst non-conference schedules. Been playing that tune for a long time now. Just play one another as the "best" conference in football and play crapping teams outside of conference then you keep the stigma going and your rankings high and who can argue otherwise. Great plan as evidenced by the last decade or so.

To be fair, let's point out that Tenn(24), South Carolina (29), Georgia (40) are the three SEC teams with a non-conference SOS in the upper half of FBS teams (<63). College football's 2014 non-conference strength-of-schedule rankings

One of the reasons for scheduling cupcakes is to fill all the bowl contracts. The SEC has nine bowl games contracted in addition to either Sugar or Rose and however many SEC teams are in the new four team Playoff. If they have one in the Playoff and one in the Sugar Bowl, they need eleven of their fourteen teams to qualify for bowls.

Last year, though, of the nine SEC teams that went to bowls, only one, Mississippi State at 6-6, would have been in danger of not going to a bowl game without a FCS game and a weak non-conference schedule. The other eight had eight wins or more at the end of the regular season.

 

[phillyirish]

SEC SEC SEC!!!

Don't know where else to put this but it was awesome watching Vanderbilt get trashed by my Temple Owls. I mean I know its only vanderbilt but then again its fucking temple football....

 

[ResLife Hero]

SEC SEC SEC!!!

Don't know where else to put this but it was awesome watching Vanderbilt get trashed by my Temple Owls. I mean I know its only vanderbilt but then again its fucking temple football....

Yeah...
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>"Straight-up outplayed by a Temple team that looked superior in every aspect."

Vandy's in major trouble: <a href="http://t.co/ZpRYUOLq2Y">http://t.co/ZpRYUOLq2Y</a></p>— SB✯Nation CFB (@SBNationCFB) <a href="https://twitter.com/SBNationCFB/statuses/505368069888147456">August 29, 2014</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Embarrassing.

 

[NDhoosier]

In Tennessee;
People around here are not happy about the Vanderbilt game... I thought there was going to be a small riot at the local bars.

 

[irishog77]

In Tennessee;
People around here are not happy about the Vanderbilt game... I thought there was going to be a small riot at the local bars.

A riot over a Vandy game?

People even actually caring about a Vandy game?

You must have been around the 4 people in the entire world who actually cared.

 

[irishfan]

In Tennessee;
People around here are not happy about the Vanderbilt game... I thought there was going to be a small riot at the local bars.

Wait till Tenn loses to Utah State on Sunday.....

 

[irishog77]

Wait till Tenn loses to Utah State on Sunday.....

T'would be a trailer park frenzy.

 

[Black Irish]

To be fair, let's point out that Tenn(24), South Carolina (29), Georgia (40) are the three SEC teams with a non-conference SOS in the upper half of FBS teams (<63). College football's 2014 non-conference strength-of-schedule rankings

One of the reasons for scheduling cupcakes is to fill all the bowl contracts. The SEC has nine bowl games contracted in addition to either Sugar or Rose and however many SEC teams are in the new four team Playoff. If they have one in the Playoff and one in the Sugar Bowl, they need eleven of their fourteen teams to qualify for bowls.

Last year, though, of the nine SEC teams that went to bowls, only one, Mississippi State at 6-6, would have been in danger of not going to a bowl game without a FCS game and a weak non-conference schedule. The other eight had eight wins or more at the end of the regular season.

This is garbage. I believe it, but it's ridiculous. "Excuse me, SEC teams, can you please create a schedule that gets you and your rabidly loyal fan base into our bowl game so we get ratings? Thanks."

 

[drayer54]

SEC East looks like it will achieve mediocrity for sure this year. SEC West looks tough as usual. Vandy looked like sh!t though.

 

[Legacy]

SEC SEC SEC!!!

Don't know where else to put this but it was awesome watching Vanderbilt get trashed by my Temple Owls. I mean I know its only vanderbilt but then again its fucking temple football....

And Vandy's non-conference schedule (Temple, UMass, Charleston Southern, Old Dominion) is rated the easiest in the SEC.

Non-conference schedule rankings: Georgia stands out, but overall SEC is lacking

 

[Huntr]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>Only SEC non-conf P5 games in 2015: SC-UNC, SC-Clem, Ala-Wis, AU-UL, A&M-ASU, Ark-TexTech, UT-OU, UF-FSU, UK-UL, LSU-Syra, UGA-GT</p>— Brett McMurphy (@McMurphyESPN) <a href="https://twitter.com/McMurphyESPN/status/522182177610792961">October 15, 2014</a></blockquote>
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Probably (hopefully!) not gonna see too much more garbage like this. Playoff means SoS is important.

 

[phork]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>Only SEC non-conf P5 games in 2015: SC-UNC, SC-Clem, Ala-Wis, AU-UL, A&M-ASU, Ark-TexTech, UT-OU, UF-FSU, UK-UL, LSU-Syra, UGA-GT</p>— Brett McMurphy (@McMurphyESPN) <a href="https://twitter.com/McMurphyESPN/status/522182177610792961">October 15, 2014</a></blockquote>
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Probably (hopefully!) not gonna see too much more garbage like this. Playoff means SoS is important.

Don't fool yourself. Mississippi St is the holder of 3 top10 wins. Except that 2 of them are no longer top25.

 

[ResLife Hero]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p><a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/FSU?src=hash">#FSU</a>'s 2016 opener with <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/OleMiss?src=hash">#OleMiss</a> officially announced <a href="http://t.co/jsgAEpfXTi">http://t.co/jsgAEpfXTi</a> via <a href="https://twitter.com/Noles247">@Noles247</a></p>— Noles247.com (@Noles247) <a href="https://twitter.com/Noles247/status/535102673775632384">November 19, 2014</a></blockquote>
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Should be a really good OOC game for both teams.

 

[Legacy]

SEC non-conference scheduling 2015

SEC non-conference scheduling 2015

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>Only SEC non-conf P5 games in 2015: SC-UNC, SC-Clem, Ala-Wis, AU-UL, A&M-ASU, Ark-TexTech, UT-OU, UF-FSU, UK-UL, LSU-Syra, UGA-GT</p>— Brett McMurphy (@McMurphyESPN) <a href="https://twitter.com/McMurphyESPN/status/522182177610792961">October 15, 2014</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>


Probably (hopefully!) not gonna see too much more garbage like this. Playoff means SoS is important.

Unfortunately, not much changes with the Strength of Schedule and the choice and location of opponents in the SEC non-conference schedules for 2015. Many of us hoped the SEC would not play light opponents, regional games with the majority home games, and minimize their away and neutral games. They still have a long way to go in their scheduling.

In 2015, of their fifty-six non-conference games, fourteen are against FCS teams. Of the fourty-two games left, the SEC plays only eight away games and five neutral site games. (13 of 56 - 19%)

Home-Away - Three SEC teams do not have any away games (Kentucky, Florida and Missouri).
-- Of the eight away games, three are in the SEC teams home state (Ga-GaTech, Vandy-Mid-Tenn St, Miss St-Southern Miss). That leave five games away from their states.

Power 5 opponents - Four teams do not play any Power 5 opponents (Missouri, both Mississippis and Vanderbilt).

Neutral Site Games - Of the five "neutral" site games, three are in the SEC teams home states (Mo-BYU@Kansas City, Tenn-Bowling Green@Nashville, Texas A&M-Arizona State@Houston).

That leaves seven games of fifty-six (12.5%), where the SEC teams have to travel outside their home states for non-conference games. (Five away, two neutral)
- Of the two neutral games not in their home states, the sites are Atlanta (Auburn-Louisiville, driving distance-108 miles), and Arlington (Alabama-Wisconsin, distance 606 miles). The SEC does not have any neutral site games outside of SEC states.
- Of the five away games, the distance of only two away games is greater than 300 miles (Vandy@Houston, LSU@Syracuse).

The conclusions based on the 2015 SEC non-conference schedules:
-- If you are a Power Five team looking to get home and home games outside of 300 miles from the SEC opponent, you have a 3.5% chance (2 of 56 games).
-- If you want to schedule a neutral site game outside of SEC states, you have a zero percent chance.

 

[ResLife Hero]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>Starting in 2016 BYU, Army, ND count toward SEC’s Power 5 nonleague requirement <a href="http://t.co/cRHkTCBtDo">http://t.co/cRHkTCBtDo</a></p>— Brett McMurphy (@McMurphyESPN) <a href="https://twitter.com/McMurphyESPN/status/578608043144966145">March 19, 2015</a></blockquote>
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[Legacy]

SEC teams load up future schedules with Power 5 foes, Notre Dame, BYU

This article also lists each SEC team's Power 5 opponents scheduled through 2021 (not counting traditional rival games like S.Carolina-Clemson, Ga-GaTech, etc).

LSU already has a Power 5 opponent scheduled yearly through 2025.

On the other end,
-Florida has scheduled only Michigan ('17)
-South Carolina only N.Carolina ('15)
-Kentucky does not have any non-rival Power 5 (non-conference) opponents scheduled
-Alabama only Wisconsin ('15) and USC ('16).

Non-conference Rival games for above teams
Florida will play Florida State '15-'18
South Carolina will play Clemson '15-'18
Kentucky will play Louisville '15-'18
Alabama - none

 

[Legacy]

Ranking the SEC’s non-conference schedules

This lists "possible ranked teams' which, in effect, are the Power 5 teams each SEC team plays. Each team except South Carolina plays one P5 team. SCe plays N.Carolina in addition to Clemson. Only four non-conference opponents for all the SEC teams are ranked in Phil Steele's preseason Top 25 - Clemson (15), ASU (16), Ga Tech (17), and Wisc (18) for the Top 8 toughest ranked SEC non-conference schedules.

If you feel like ranking a "non-conference" schedule for ND, I would include USC and Navy with the six ACC games as "conference" games, leaving Texas, Stanford, UMass and Temple. Those four have a combined 2014 rcord of 23-27. Only Stanford (25) is ranked in Steele's Top 25.

 

[Legacy]

Take the quiz. Let's see how much we know about the SEC scheduling cupcakes.

QUIZ: SEC football opponents or unaccredited universities?

 

[edgesofsanity]

Take the quiz. Let's see how much we know about the SEC scheduling cupcakes.

QUIZ: SEC football opponents or unaccredited universities?

Nice - got 12 out of 14. The trick is if it sounds like a made up college name, pick SEC opponent.

 

[T Town Tommy]

Auburn and Oregon at Arlington in 2019. A little too far off to be excited but if the programs stay where they currently are it should be a good one.

 

[Legacy]

Auburn and Oregon at Arlington in 2019. A little too far off to be excited but if the programs stay where they currently are it should be a good one.

Oregon still needs to fill their 2018 Power 5 opening since A&M backed out of their home-and-home in '18 & '19. Good for Auburn for scheduling a tough Pac 12 team.

Scheduling more home and homes with travel to Big 10 or Pac 12 country is still something Auburn has not worked into their scheduling. Maybe they still just want regional games.

 

[T Town Tommy]

Oregon still needs to fill their 2018 Power 5 opening since A&M backed out of their home-and-home in '18 & '19. Good for Auburn for scheduling a tough Pac 12 team.

Scheduling more home and homes with travel to Big 10 or Pac 12 country is still something Auburn has not worked into their scheduling. Maybe they still just want regional games.

I would just as soon forget the neutral site games and just go home and home. Can't stand games in Atlanta or the Dallas metro area.