Russia Invades Ukraine

[NorthDakota]

For most of this stuff, it could have been a big deal but only if rolled out early when the Russians were reeling from the unsuccessful early stages of the invasion.

If we have them the green light to hit refineries/oil it could shorten Putin's runway to keep the fight going, but that only matters in a longer conflict. At this point it just helps Ukraine hold ground/exact a higher price at the margin.

We don't want oil refineries hit though

 

[PerthDomer]

We don't want oil refineries hit though

We actually like the idea of refineries being hit. There's quite a bit of slack in refinery capacity worldwide. Russia would export crude and import refined product which would gut their ability to import much else. Ukraine's been hitting them, but not enough to keep more than 10% off line at any point.

At this point the question is more crude oil. Gas prices going up would have made Trump more likely to win/pissed of the EU countries, but at this point the market is soft and any oil coming off market hurts Trump at the margin.

If Russia loses its oil/gas revenue it also makes rebuilding their military harder which is good for regional stability.

 

[NorthDakota]

We actually like the idea of refineries being hit. There's quite a bit of slack in refinery capacity worldwide. Russia would export crude and import refined product which would gut their ability to import much else. Ukraine's been hitting them, but not enough to keep more than 10% off line at any point.

At this point the question is more crude oil. Gas prices going up would have made Trump more likely to win/pissed of the EU countries, but at this point the market is soft and any oil coming off market hurts Trump at the margin.

If Russia loses its oil/gas revenue it also makes rebuilding their military harder which is good for regional stability.

What does the Russian military have to do with regional stability?

 

[GATTACA!]

What does the Russian military have to do with regional stability?

Is that a sarcastic question? lol

 

[NorthDakota]

Is that a sarcastic question? lol

There is constantly a two pronged position on Russia.

1) they are so incompetent they can't handle little ol' Ukraine; and
2) Ukraine is all that is standing between a country of 140 million people with a comically bad GDP and awful demographics and NATO (giant GDP and comparatively good demographics) going to war.

Only one of those two items can be true.

I think I've said it before, I'll say it again. Boomers/Gen X never got to fight the war they grew up preparing for. They want to fight the Soviet Union badly. Problem is, USSR disappeared before I was even born. I'm 32. The wall fell when...1989 or something? Russia could roll tanks into Kiev tomorrow and our lives wouldn't change at all.

Europeans would maybe spend a couple extra dollars on defense, for a year or two. They know nothing is coming their way. Poland and the Balts ruling classes might have some PTSD and spend a bit more. But end of the day, they know nothing is going to happen. Ukraine seems to be Russia's red line. That's fine.

Make a deal. The videos of guys dying over there isn't video games. It's rather sad. Toying with another country like they'll ever be akin to Germany or Poland is pretty immoral.

 

[GATTACA!]

There is constantly a two pronged position on Russia.

1) they are so incompetent they can't handle little ol' Ukraine; and
2) Ukraine is all that is standing between a country of 140 million people with a comically bad GDP and awful demographics and NATO (giant GDP and comparatively good demographics) going to war.

Only one of those two items can be true.

I think I've said it before, I'll say it again. Boomers/Gen X never got to fight the war they grew up preparing for. They want to fight the Soviet Union badly. Problem is, USSR disappeared before I was even born. I'm 32. The wall fell when...1989 or something? Russia could roll tanks into Kiev tomorrow and our lives wouldn't change at all.

Europeans would maybe spend a couple extra dollars on defense, for a year or two. They know nothing is coming their way. Poland and the Balts ruling classes might have some PTSD and spend a bit more. But end of the day, they know nothing is going to happen. Ukraine seems to be Russia's red line. That's fine.

Make a deal. The videos of guys dying over there isn't video games. It's rather sad. Toying with another country like they'll ever be akin to Germany or Poland is pretty immoral.

Both are obviously true and not mutually exclusive. Their military is incompetent. They have outdated tech and the core of everything they do is rotted out by corruption. How long would it take the US to defeat Ukraine?

Their incompetence doesn't mean that they can't destabilize the region though. Not sure how what they're doing right now doesn't qualify as destabilizing in your opinion.

Ukraine is their red line how? Them claiming their interest in joining NATO is a threat is just a justification for their invasion. They found justifications for Georgia, Crimea, and now Ukraine. You're naive if you think it would stop there if they suddenly got full control.

As long as Ukraine has the desire to fight and is asking for our help we should help them. First of all because it's the right thing to do. They are a free country that voluntarily gave up their nuclear capabilities in exchange for their sovereignty. Allowing Russia to do as they please sets a horrible example and basically ensures no one will ever consider denuclearization like that again. And two, our support is crippling an antagonistic world power. They're torching their own economy and gutting an entire generation. Frankly it's what they deserve.

 

[Irish#1]

There is constantly a two pronged position on Russia.

1) they are so incompetent they can't handle little ol' Ukraine; and
2) Ukraine is all that is standing between a country of 140 million people with a comically bad GDP and awful demographics and NATO (giant GDP and comparatively good demographics) going to war.

Only one of those two items can be true.

I think I've said it before, I'll say it again. Boomers/Gen X never got to fight the war they grew up preparing for. They want to fight the Soviet Union badly. Problem is, USSR disappeared before I was even born. I'm 32. The wall fell when...1989 or something? Russia could roll tanks into Kiev tomorrow and our lives wouldn't change at all.

Europeans would maybe spend a couple extra dollars on defense, for a year or two. They know nothing is coming their way. Poland and the Balts ruling classes might have some PTSD and spend a bit more. But end of the day, they know nothing is going to happen. Ukraine seems to be Russia's red line. That's fine.

Make a deal. The videos of guys dying over there isn't video games. It's rather sad. Toying with another country like they'll ever be akin to Germany or Poland is pretty immoral.

ND, I respect your opinion, but the highlighted is a naive statement. First, the Boomer generation had Korea and Viet Nam. You're also forgetting about all of the protests across the country demanding we get out of Viet Nam. Those were Boomers protesting. I remember the Russian Missile crisis and feared it was war. Bottom line, as a card carrying member of the Boomer generation, I don't know any Boomer that wishes we had a war where we could flex our muscles. Can't really speak for Gen X, but I've never heard my kids or their friends salivating for a war.

 

[GowerND11]

ND, I respect your opinion, but the highlighted is a naive statement. First, the Boomer generation had Korea and Viet Nam. You're also forgetting about all of the protests across the country demanding we get out of Viet Nam. Those were Boomers protesting. I remember the Russian Missile crisis and feared into a war. Bottom line, as a card carrying member of the Boomer generation, I don't know any Boomer that wishes we had a war where we could flex our muscles. Can't really speak for Gen X, but I've never heard my kids or their friends salivating for a war.

Korea was Greatest Generation and Silent Generation.

The basis of your post still stands though.

 

[NorthDakota]

Both are obviously true and not mutually exclusive. Their military is incompetent. They have outdated tech and the core of everything they do is rotted out by corruption. How long would it take the US to defeat Ukraine?

Their incompetence doesn't mean that they can't destabilize the region though. Not sure how what they're doing right now doesn't qualify as destabilizing in your opinion.

Ukraine is their red line how? Them claiming their interest in joining NATO is a threat is just a justification for their invasion. They found justifications for Georgia, Crimea, and now Ukraine. You're naive if you think it would stop there if they suddenly got full control.

As long as Ukraine has the desire to fight and is asking for our help we should help them. First of all because it's the right thing to do. They are a free country that voluntarily gave up their nuclear capabilities in exchange for their sovereignty. Allowing Russia to do as they please sets a horrible example and basically ensures no one will ever consider denuclearization like that again. And two, our support is crippling an antagonistic world power. They're torching their own economy and gutting an entire generation. Frankly it's what they deserve.

It's obviously true that Ukraine is all that stands between NATO and war with Russia?

Russia isn't going to war with NATO. That means war with the United States. Then we got billions dead.

 

[NorthDakota]

ND, I respect your opinion, but the highlighted is a naive statement. First, the Boomer generation had Korea and Viet Nam. You're also forgetting about all of the protests across the country demanding we get out of Viet Nam. Those were Boomers protesting. I remember the Russian Missile crisis and feared it was war. Bottom line, as a card carrying member of the Boomer generation, I don't know any Boomer that wishes we had a war where we could flex our muscles. Can't really speak for Gen X, but I've never heard my kids or their friends salivating for a war.

No boomers in Korea and I'm referencing young boomers. That was my lack of clarity. When. You have a group spanning 20 years, there are distinctions.

For example, my aunt graduated in 1998 and I graduated in 2010. We are both millennials. We are "same generation" in name only.

 

[Giddyup]

Can any person here actually say what Russia has done negatively to them? They’re a dictatorship (democracy lol) but there’s a lot of them out there, like Venezuela. Just a real question, how do they effect your life negatively?

 

[PerthDomer]

What does the Russian military have to do with regional stability?

Russia is a revisionist power that wants to get the old empire back together. If they could they'd like more of Europe. If they can't rebuild their military and maintain domestic stability they likely won't push the issue.

Had their initial decapitation strike worked I'd be worried they'd be in the Baltics or Moldova/Romania already. As it stands they need to rebuild their military at the cost of a lot of time and money. That gets harder if their petrochemical industry is harmed.

 

[Giddyup]

We’ve invaded countries it’s kind of funny when people say yeah but weak Russia invaded Ukraine let’s give shithole Ukraine 1 trillion dollars.

 

[Giddyup]

But I’m actually not a Russian spy I just don’t think this war is worth wiping humans off the world which would happen if we (NATO) get involved.

 

[PerthDomer]

We’ve invaded countries it’s kind of funny when people say yeah but weak Russia invaded Ukraine let’s give shithole Ukraine 1 trillion dollars.

We invaded Iraw the 1st time because they conquered Kuwait, and unchecked could have gone into Saudi Arabia and controlled most of the world's oil.

We invaded Afganistan because they were harboring Al Qaeda post 9/11.

We invaded Iraq due to bad intelligence and a belief they had nukes and we're working with terrorist groups.

Russia invaded Ukraine because they were moving to integrate more with the EU.

They're very different things. Russia wants to bring the old ww2 era geopolitics back. Our goal is to keep the post WW2 order going.

 

[NorthDakota]

Russia is a revisionist power that wants to get the old empire back together. If they could they'd like more of Europe. If they can't rebuild their military and maintain domestic stability they likely won't push the issue.

Had their initial decapitation strike worked I'd be worried they'd be in the Baltics or Moldova/Romania already. As it stands they need to rebuild their military at the cost of a lot of time and money. That gets harder if their petrochemical industry is harmed.

They aren't invading NATO. That's silly. Let's be realistic.

 

[PerthDomer]

They aren't invading NATO. That's silly. Let's be realistic.

Realistically, would NATO defend its border fringe? The baltics are tiny and a quarter ethnic Russian. NATO doctrine before the Scandinavians joined was to let Russia take those countries and then counter attack. You think we'd launch that counterattack when Russia's threatening to launch nukes? Would Putin?

 

[calvegas04]

The right/moral thing is to support Ukraine and their right to freedom. Supporting Russia is just saying you are okay with millions of people falling under a terrorist dictatorship.

 

[Bishop2b5]

The right/moral thing is to support Ukraine and their right to freedom. Supporting Russia is just saying you are okay with millions of people falling under a terrorist dictatorship.

I realize that in many ways, supporting Ukraine doesn't help the US politically, and you can make a good case that it's not our problem and just hurts us, or at least costs us a lot of money and strains our relationship with a major player, and that other than providing the world with a lot of exceptionally attractive women, Ukraine can't do anything for us. That's all true. However, as you say, I think we do have a moral obligation to support Ukraine against an unlawful and immoral invasion. This is who we are, or who we're supposed to be. We don't do it because it's easy or it helps us. We should just do it because it's right.

 

[NorthDakota]

Realistically, would NATO defend its border fringe? The baltics are tiny and a quarter ethnic Russian. NATO doctrine before the Scandinavians joined was to let Russia take those countries and then counter attack. You think we'd launch that counterattack when Russia's threatening to launch nukes? Would Putin?

If we wouldn't defend them then why were they admitted?

Zero obligation to defend a non-member

 

[PerthDomer]

If we wouldn't defend them then why were they admitted?

Zero obligation to defend a non-member

That's the rub. If we don't help the Ukranians or say have an anti NATO president, Russia is more likely to think we won't call their bluff. Or if they timed their move with say a Chinese attack on Taiwan or Iran making a move in the Middle East we might have to choose who we prioritize.

Fortunately the Scandinavians and Poland have excellent militaries and Russia's going to take a while to rebuild their military.

 

[NorthDakota]

That's the rub. If we don't help the Ukranians or say have an anti NATO president, Russia is more likely to think we won't call their bluff. Or if they timed their move with say a Chinese attack on Taiwan or Iran making a move in the Middle East we might have to choose who we prioritize.

Fortunately the Scandinavians and Poland have excellent militaries and Russia's going to take a while to rebuild their military.

The Scandinavians don't have excellent militaries. They are auxiliary types. I think Sweden's active duty force is the size of my hometown.

Poland historically (500 years ago) was cool. Maybe they still got some fight in them.

 

[calvegas04]

The Scandinavians don't have excellent militaries. They are auxiliary types. I think Sweden's active duty force is the size of my hometown.

Poland historically (500 years ago) was cool. Maybe they still got some fight in them.

They do have excellent trained militaries and well equipped just not very large in size.

Poland is in a massive military modernization.

 

[NorthDakota]

They do have excellent trained militaries and well equipped just not very large in size.

Poland is in a massive military modernization.

The North Dakota national guard could bury them in a day. Let's be honest.

Poland is a paper tiger. I deal with Poles. Sad and sorry people

 

[Giddyup]

That’s a pretty large generalization

 

[calvegas04]

The North Dakota national guard could bury them in a day. Let's be honest.

Poland is a paper tiger. I deal with Poles. Sad and sorry people

North Dakota's finest here

 

[Sea Turtle]

I think you guys are underestimating the ND Guard here. They fought Canada to a standstill in The Pig War.

 

[IrishLax]

 

[Irish#1]

No boomers in Korea and I'm referencing young boomers. That was my lack of clarity. When. You have a group spanning 20 years, there are distinctions.

For example, my aunt graduated in 1998 and I graduated in 2010. We are both millennials. We are "same generation" in name only.

True, Boomers didn't fight in Korea, but many were hitting that impressionable/curious age hearing what their parents said or heard/watched on TV & radio. That contributes to shaping their minds.

 

[ozzman]

MAKS 24 👀🇺🇦 (@maks23.bsky.social)

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