Playoff Picture

[yankeehater]

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[Irish YJ]

I also think it depends on what else happens in other conferences. One conference is getting two teams in (Big 12 is out, I doubt Oregon can do enough to make a claim). If OSU and Bama win out, and we lose to Clemson by 10 or less, I like our chances (Florida is a two loss SEC C loser, Wisconsin might be in the BigC game, but will have played 6 games or so).

The issue might be if Wisconsin or Florida wins out. You're looking at undefeated Wisconsin, one loss and SEC Champ Florida for sure. Clemson will almost undoubtedly get in as ACC champ. Then you pick one of Alabama, Notre Dame, and OSU. I know you can point at OSU not playing anybody, but I think the committee leaves ND out in that situation.

If we do lose, it would have to be a close loss. There's several others who could pop in to the conversation. If we win out, and lose by 7 or less in the ACC-C, it's going to be hard to keep us out.

TAMU - is trending, and could end up a 1 loss team that doesn't go to the SEC-C
FL - if they beat Bama in a close one, both FL and AL could go. Then TAMU may still be there too.
Cinci - already at #7
BYU - already at #8. Both Cinci and BYU are getting abnormally high respect this year for being non-P5 teams.
Oregon - has a cake walk to the PAC-C
Wiscy - if they win out, they beat OSU and are in. A close loss to OSU might also be enough if they beat all the teams in front of them up to the BIG-C.

 

[phork]

Frankly ND needs to beat these next 4 like drum. And then win the ACC-C. Any losses on the way is going to doom them. Ironically in a year where ND is actually in a conference and the conference championship will hurt us lol.
If everything goes as expected, OSU wins BIG, Bama wins SEC then ND/Clemson winner is in, the loser will need help.

It would be VERY ironic if TexasAM gets in over a 1 conference championship loss ND, considering they don't play in a conference champ. If AM loses one more I would guarantee and ND playoff spot.

 

[greyhammer90]

Frankly ND needs to beat these next 4 like drum. And then win the ACC-C. Any losses on the way is going to doom them. Ironically in a year where ND is actually in a conference and the conference championship will hurt us lol.
If everything goes as expected, OSU wins BIG, Bama wins SEC then ND/Clemson winner is in, the loser will need help.

It would be VERY ironic if TexasAM gets in over a 1 conference championship loss ND, considering they don't play in a conference champ. If AM loses one more I would guarantee and ND playoff spot.

I think we're in a good spot. If we lose one of the next four but beat Clemson, I think we're in. If we go undefeated but lose to Clemson in the ACC Championship, I think we're still in so long as we keep it within 10. We just can't afford to have a let down game and lose to Clemson.

 

[NDohio]

Does this hurt OSU's chances?

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">BREAKING <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Maryland?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#Maryland</a> vs <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/OhioState?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#OhioState</a> this Saturday is getting cancelled per source.</p>— Bruce Feldman (@BruceFeldmanCFB) <a href="https://twitter.com/BruceFeldmanCFB/status/1326608596478566401?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">November 11, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

How many games is too few in the eyes of the committee?

 

[zelezo vlk]

Really wasn't sure where else to put this, but this is a great breakdown of the offense from Saturday, and a follow-up from his post about the offense earlier this season. I'll just include the last paragraph.

https://theoutsidezone.substack.com/p/notre-dame-offensive-identity

If Notre Dame is going to seriously compete for a national title, it’s likely going to have to face three straight games (ACC title, playoff game one, playoff game two) with defenses throwing very similar looks at it in blitzing as a way to counter this rushing attack and to force Book out of the pocket. The difference between competing in and even winning those games is going to lie in blitz pickup from the tight ends and from Williams. It’s very hard to ask a running back to play like this in three consecutive games, but if Williams can do that, this becomes a very very dangerous team, running the exact offense that it needs to be running to maximize the talent is has.

 

[RDU Irish]

Really wasn't sure where else to put this, but this is a great breakdown of the offense from Saturday, and a follow-up from his post about the offense earlier this season. I'll just include the last paragraph.

https://theoutsidezone.substack.com/p/notre-dame-offensive-identity

Two of those games would be weeks apart. Conf championship and playoff are not exactly back to back. Playoff to title - well I'd be happy with that first world problem.

We win ACC and doesn't that knock Clemson out of the playoffs?

 

[zelezo vlk]

Two of those games would be weeks apart. Conf championship and playoff are not exactly back to back. Playoff to title - well I'd be happy with that first world problem.

We win ACC and doesn't that knock Clemson out of the playoffs?

You'd gotta think so, but if a second win doesn't vault ND to #1, then the schedule is almost 100% guaranteed to be Ohio State and Alabama, back-to-back

 

[ndbroski]

https://theoutsidezone.substack.com/p/notre-dame-offensive-identity[/QUOTE]

IK its no use at this point, but having Jahmir Smith rn as a passblocking back would be an upgrade over Flemister or Tyree in that aspect.

 

[IHateMarkMay]

You'd gotta think so, but if a second win doesn't vault ND to #1, then the schedule is almost 100% guaranteed to be Ohio State and Alabama, back-to-back

Looking at it from a voter's eye if everything is chalk from here out:

Notre Dame would have beaten #1 Clemson, probably ranked 22ish UNC, and a #4 Clemson.

Alabama would have beaten #13 TAMU, #3 UGA, (currently) #24 Auburn, and #5/6 FLA.

Does beating #1, #4, and #22ish beat out beating #3, #5/6, #13, and #24? Personally, with SEC bias being what it is, I think we would need some help getting to #1.

 

[Wingman Ray]

Looking at it from a voter's eye if everything is chalk from here out:

Notre Dame would have beaten #1 Clemson, probably ranked 22ish UNC, and a #4 Clemson.

Alabama would have beaten #13 TAMU, #3 UGA, (currently) #24 Auburn, and #5/6 FLA.

Does beating #1, #4, and #22ish beat out beating #3, #5/6, #13, and #24? Personally, with SEC bias being what it is, I think we would need some help getting to #1.

Honestly I cannot fathom how they can consider OSU to be the #3 team in the country. B10 is even worse than they have been in years past and OSU has zero real competition with PSU and Mich down. IU? Cmon man!

 

[IHateMarkMay]

Honestly I cannot fathom how they can consider OSU to be the #3 team in the country. B10 is even worse than they have been in years past and OSU has zero real competition with PSU and Mich down. IU? Cmon man!

100% agree. I feel that all polls should either start at a certain week or teams have to play a certain amount of games to be eligible for the poll.

 

[Whiskeyjack]

Honestly I cannot fathom how they can consider OSU to be the #3 team in the country. B10 is even worse than they have been in years past and OSU has zero real competition with PSU and Mich down. IU? Cmon man!

It's the perennial problem with human polls: are you voting based on resume or quality? Our resume is obviously far superior to OSU's right now, but virtually no objective 3rd party would pick the Irish over the Buckeyes on a neutral field. So if you're voting on quality, OSU is still ahead of us.

 

[RDU Irish]

Gotta love all the lower tier teams making headway b/c they moved up rankings before others played. Where would Cinci, BYU, Coastal Carolina, Marshall, SMU, Liberty be if not for the P12, B1G late starts and more time for padding records against patsies?

 

[phillyirish]

Article on ESPN states the BIG 12 commissioner says the potential for a playoff delay has been discussed. This could help the BIG 10 and PAC 12, if it gives them room to make up games.

Imagine is one of the playoff teams has an outbreak the week of the game and it has to be postponed. That could be wild considering the money involved in one of those games.

 

[phork]

If ND loses to Clemson (This is where I'm at because its hard to beat a team twice in one season), then the following must occur.

Florida needs to lose to Alabama in SEC Champ, or earlier.
A&M needs to lose to Auburn.
BYU & Cincy need to lose (but stay undefeated as long as possible as a buffer from Wisky & Oregon.)

I don't know what Lawrence can do to the ND secondary that his backup didnt. But if ND can contain Etienne again and ND cleans up its fumblitis and turnover issues they have a good chance of winning. That game has to be 100% clean.

 

[phillyirish]

Because of Miami’s COVID outbreak, multiple ACC games have been rescheduled/rearranged. Most notably, Miami’s game against GTech has been rescheduled from this weekend to Dec 19, or the same day as the ACC championship. The caveat being that only if that game doesn’t affect the title game. Kind of strange because even though it’s 90% likely the title game is Clemson vs ND, Miami is technically only a tiebreaker away from playing in that game.

https://www.espn.com/college-footba...eshuffles-schedule-amid-miami-covid-19-issues

 

[IHateMarkMay]

OSU opens as a 21 point favorite over IU. So if they win by that amount or more, do they get stay at #3 because they won over an inferior team by the amount they should have, or do they jump to #2 and get credit for beating the #9 team in the nation?

We all know what should happen if they win. Let's just hope they lose.

 

[Legacy]

We open the CFP's rankings at #2 behind Bama.

If we had not played an ACC conference schedule (including Clemson) only, would an undefeated ND with the usual final games be ranked in the top four?

 

[zelezo vlk]

We open the CFP's rankings at #2 behind Bama.

If we had not played an ACC conference schedule (including Clemson) only, would an undefeated ND with the usual final games be ranked in the top four?

But Clemson was on the original schedule?

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[ThePiombino]

We open the CFP's rankings at #2 behind Bama.

If we had not played an ACC conference schedule (including Clemson) only, would an undefeated ND with the usual final games be ranked in the top four?

But Clemson was on the original schedule?

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Clemson was always our Nov 7 game. So yes, yes we would be ranked in the top 4.

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[tko]

Jessie Palmer is going to be giving us the "eye test" on Saturday. Fck these clowns. UNC QB running his mouth is going to have the boys dialed in. Road warriors take care of business.

 

[Sherm Sticky]

Jessie Palmer is going to be giving us the "eye test" on Saturday. Fck these clowns. UNC QB running his mouth is going to have the boys dialed in. Road warriors take care of business.

Friday not Saturday.


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[Legacy]

Hard to keep one the remaining three P5 undefeated teams out of the CFP rankings. I imagine that we would be third if we kept our prior Independent schedule and the B10 and SEC started play when we did.

Western Michigan is dropped since all would play eleven games. In our first eight games in the old schedule, we win against Navy, Wisconsin, Arkansas, Stanford and the ACC games of Wake, Pitts, Duke and Clemson. While the season would have ended this weekend with the USC game previously, the other two were Georgia Tech and L'ville. Not exactly a tough SOS every "Join a Conference" bird would be singing.

But slap my mouth saying it but it's been good to look at conference standings and see ND on top of the ACC and compare the margins by which we have beaten those we played with other conference teams. Some would be ranking a full schedule Ohio State (assuming they had beaten Oregon in their old schedule) ahead of us at this time even with the top B10 teams outside of them being NW and Indiana.

 

[texbender]

The nice thing for ND is that they control their own destiny. Win and you're in. All about taking care of biz at this point.

 

[zelezo vlk]

Unfortunately it sounds like the Ohio State/Illinois game may be canceled. If this happens and Ohio State's next game were canceled, it very well could disqualify the Buckeyes from the BIG CCG. Normally we would cheer for that, but...

Say Northwestern then wins the BIG. Do we really think the CFP committee ignores Ohio State and Northwestern? Highly doubtful and if we lose to Clemson in the ACC CCG, somebody will have to go.

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[ThePiombino]

Unfortunately it sounds like the Ohio State/Illinois game may be canceled. If this happens and Ohio State's next game were canceled, it very well could disqualify the Buckeyes from the BIG CCG. Normally we would cheer for that, but...

Say Northwestern then wins the BIG. Do we really think the CFP committee ignores Ohio State and Northwestern? Highly doubtful and if we lose to Clemson in the ACC CCG, somebody will have to go.

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In no scenario does NW and OSU get in. None. The committee simply cannot justify allowing two teams with such weak resumes into the playoff.

 

[Pops Freshenmeyer]

Unfortunately it sounds like the Ohio State/Illinois game may be canceled. If this happens and Ohio State's next game were canceled, it very well could disqualify the Buckeyes from the BIG CCG. Normally we would cheer for that, but...

Say Northwestern then wins the BIG. Do we really think the CFP committee ignores Ohio State and Northwestern? Highly doubtful and if we lose to Clemson in the ACC CCG, somebody will have to go.

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In that scenario Ohio State would be, at best, 5-0. That would be... something for them to get into the playoff with that record.

Their opponents are collectively 6-13 right now (6-9 not counting their OSU losses). Their remaining opponents, sans Illinois, are 3-6.

If OSU gets another game canceled their conference will bend over backwards to put them in the CCG, I think. Otherwise, no way are they in.

 

[fightingirish26]

5-0 OSU is on the outside looking in, save for absolute chaos everywhere else.

 

[phork]

I was worried the committee would slot ND at 3 behind OSU in which case no margin for error even a close loss to Clemson in the acc championship. At number 2 I am more comfortable, if ND wins out and loses to Clemson, that ND is almost a sure lock now.

It'll be interesting to see arguements where ND is left out over teams with only 6 or 7 games played. If we play all our games we will literally have 4 or 5 more games than a lot.of teams. Past years ND got shit on for not having the 13th data point.

Strange days indeed.