ND's Path to the 2015 Playoffs

[Rhode Irish]

What I want to know is why Oklahoma State is getting so much recognition for beating ISU(3-7 football team) by 4 and the week before beating a decimated TCU team that almost lost to Kansas(0-10) who is possibly the worst football team in the FBS? I don't see why they should jump us to the very least.

Recognition from who? I wouldn't complain about them jumping you until they actually do. I think whoever is saying they will has not been paying attention to what the committee has done and said so far.

 

[ulukinatme]

I was hoping Stanford would win out. Hopefully they don't lose to Cal, but they'll still be a quality win and should be ranked if we beat them in CA, especially if they still end up as PAC-12 champ. As expected Oklahoma can possibly complicate things if they win out, but I still think we have a very good shot to stay ahead of them even if they go 11-1 and have an impressive finish against TCU, Baylor, and OK St. The good part is that TCU and Baylor are essentially out of the way, OK St is just the remaining unbeaten Big 12 team that will definitely get in unless they drop one of their next two games. Ideally OK St loses to Baylor, then Oklahoma drops another to OK St, but we'll see what happens. As long as OK St is out of the way I'll feel pretty good.

Clemson looks like they're going to run the table, as expected. That 2 point loss is looking better and better each week. Chaos can always happen, especially in the B1G in the next few weeks, but I still think it'll be Clemson, B1G champ (Probably tOSU), SEC Champ (Probably 'Bama), and hopefully us at the end.

 

[Old Man Mike]

Johnny and Rhode: preach brothers. Some of our "faithful" ain't too faithful, it seems, and seem to go out of their way to invent negativity --- very similar to trollism. {their "motivation" would make a good psych department study}.

 

[Irish Insanity]

What I want to know is why Oklahoma State is getting so much recognition for beating ISU(3-7 football team) by 4 and the week before beating a decimated TCU team that almost lost to Kansas(0-10) who is possibly the worst football team in the FBS? I don't see why they should jump us to the very least.

I've mentioned they would be one of the few I wouldn't complain if they did. They haven't lost, we have. That's the only reason. I also mention Iowa in the same breath.

 

[edgesofsanity]

I've mentioned they would be one of the few I wouldn't complain if they did. They haven't lost, we have. That's the only reason. I also mention Iowa in the same breath.

So is Houston, but I'd definitely complain if any of them were above us at this point...

 

[drayer54]

Iowa will likely pass ND this week or next. OSU may too. However, OSU will lose to OU or Baylor.

Iowa doesn't matter, because if they win out... the other OSU drops and we move up.

I'm starting to feel like we may need alot more help than we were going to a few weeks back.

 

[irishfan]

Johnny and Rhode: preach brothers. Some of our "faithful" ain't too faithful, it seems, and seem to go out of their way to invent negativity --- very similar to trollism. {their "motivation" would make a good psych department study}.

LOL trolling by being worried that 11-1 won't get us in?

Chances are, everything will work out fine for us if we finish 11-1. But I'm not going to sit here and act like I'm not worried about a 13-0 Clemson, 13-0 Ohio State, 12-1 Bama, and 12-0 Oklahoma State.

Last week, FiveThirtyEight (probably one of the most accurate sports statistic sites out there) gave us a 71% chance of making the playoffs if we go 11-1. Those odds are probably slightly worse after the Stanford/Temple losses. Please, conduct all the psych department studies you want on fans who are worried about the 29% chance that we will go 11-1 and be left out of the playoffs.

 

[pkt77242]

So am I.

I mean I get it.

I do not think we'll be on the outside looking in.

But hey I'm done.

Sorry if you guys feel better being negative then hoping for a positive outcome.

I feel better being positive and expecting a positive outcome.

That's the way I was taught, and I raise my children that way.

When life hands you lemons, then you eat them, drink their juice. I think we'll have Oranges in our future at the very least.

Huh? How was I being negative?

 

[johnnycando]

^

Was meant for the general negative consensus.

If you fit that category then I meant you.

I'm not saying you do.

 

[pkt77242]

LOL trolling by being worried that 11-1 won't get us in?

Chances are, everything will work out fine for us if we finish 11-1. But I'm not going to sit here and act like I'm not worried about a 13-0 Clemson, 13-0 Ohio State, 12-1 Bama, and 12-0 Oklahoma State.

Last week, FiveThirtyEight (probably one of the most accurate sports statistic sites out there) gave us a 71% chance of making the playoffs if we go 11-1. Those odds are probably slightly worse after the Stanford/Temple losses. Please, conduct all the psych department studies you want on fans who are worried about the 29% chance that we will go 11-1 and be left out of the playoffs.

I linked to it a few posts up but their current probability for ND to make the playoffs is 24%.

 

[IrishinSyria]

I linked to it a few posts up but their current probability for ND to make the playoffs is 24%.

To be fair, that also incorporates the odds that we lose to BC and or Stanfurd. Last time I checked, Stanfurd was slightly favored by most advanced metrics, but we'll go ahead and call it a coinflip...

That means Silver's site actually is saying that there's a (slightly greater than) 50% chance we make the playoffs if we win out. In about 50% of scenarios, we don't even get to that discussion, in the 50% of scenarios where we do win out we get picked half the time.

That strikes me as about right. I really think it's a coin flip in-between us and an 11-1 Oklahoma and that the Ohio St (or Iowa)/Alabama/Clemson/Okie St situation is a loser for us. There's also a bunch of scenarios where we get in no matter what (think Bama losing to Auburn and Florida losing to Florida St).


edit: I can't see how you can possibly think people are being negative for trying to work out what will happen in different scenarios. I think we have a good chance at getting in if we win out, but people are kidding themselves if they don't think we're the most likely candidate to get TCUed this year.

 

[IrishFanJMercy]

If our DB's continue to play 15 yards off the line Stanford will kill us in the short passing game all day.

 

[Sherm Sticky]

IMO just need ok state to lose and we should be in good shape as long as Clemson wins out.


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[Sherm Sticky]

If our DB's continue to play 15 yards off the line Stanford will kill us in the short passing game all day.

Stanford has a lot of problems they need to address, especially on defense.


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[Sherm Sticky]

To be fair, that also incorporates the odds that we lose to BC and or Stanfurd. Last time I checked, Stanfurd was slightly favored by most advanced metrics, but we'll go ahead and call it a coinflip...

That means Silver's site actually is saying that there's a (slightly greater than) 50% chance we make the playoffs if we win out. In about 50% of scenarios, we don't even get to that discussion, in the 50% of scenarios where we do win out we get picked half the time.

That strikes me as about right. I really think it's a coin flip in-between us and an 11-1 Oklahoma and that the Ohio St (or Iowa)/Alabama/Clemson/Okie St situation is a loser for us. There's also a bunch of scenarios where we get in no matter what (think Bama losing to Auburn and Florida losing to Florida St).


edit: I can't see how you can possibly think people are being negative for trying to work out what will happen in different scenarios. I think we have a good chance at getting in if we win out, but people are kidding themselves if they don't think we're the most likely candidate to get TCUed this year.

If ND wins out and Oklahoma wins out I just don't see Oklahoma getting in ahead of ND. Reason is common opponent in Texas.

Also, has anyone given thought to if MSU wins out. With wins over Oregon, OSU, Iowa and Michigan. They would def be in the playoffs and most likely the only big 10 team.


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[Irish Insanity]

If ND wins out and Oklahoma wins out I just don't see Oklahoma getting in ahead of ND. Reason is common opponent in Texas.

Also, has anyone given thought to if MSU wins out. With wins over Oregon, OSU, Iowa and Michigan. They would def be in the playoffs and most likely the only big 10 team.


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The reason OU worries me is there SOS down the stretch looks better than ours. As far as MSU, they'll take OSU out by doing it so basically they'll swap and won't take an extra spot. I think that's why nobody is talking much about it. Like Iowa will if they win out.

 

[Sherm Sticky]

The reason OU worries me is there SOS down the stretch looks better than ours. As far as MSU, they'll take OSU out by doing it so basically they'll swap and won't take an extra spot. I think that's why nobody is talking much about it. Like Iowa will if they win out.

Agree that only one big 10 team gets in.

I still just can't see how if Oklahoma and ND have the same record the committee puts Oklahoma in. They lost to a sub .500 team who ND blew out and ND's loss would be to the number 1 team (if Clemson wins out). Just don't see Oklahoma jumping ND


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[Rhode Irish]

LOL trolling by being worried that 11-1 won't get us in?

Chances are, everything will work out fine for us if we finish 11-1. But I'm not going to sit here and act like I'm not worried about a 13-0 Clemson, 13-0 Ohio State, 12-1 Bama, and 12-0 Oklahoma State.

Last week, FiveThirtyEight (probably one of the most accurate sports statistic sites out there) gave us a 71% chance of making the playoffs if we go 11-1. Those odds are probably slightly worse after the Stanford/Temple losses. Please, conduct all the psych department studies you want on fans who are worried about the 29% chance that we will go 11-1 and be left out of the playoffs.

I don't think there is any chance Okie State wins out. The reason to worry would be an 11-1 Oklahoma jumping us, but I don't think that will happen. At the very least, if that is going to happen our fate has already been sealed by the schedule makers so there's no use in fretting over it. I think you just worry about winning the games and make the committee take it away from you.

 

[STLcardz-NDirish]

Not worried about Oklahoma state. Have you watched them play? And I think we would get in over a 1 loss Oklahoma. We look at who teams have played to develop a measuring stick. When looking at Notre dame's measuring stick, it shows they nearly beat (and certainly out gained) the #1 team in the country. When you look at Oklahoma's measuring stick it shows they beat an overrated (Baylor almost lost to 3-6 Kansas state and struggled with 3-7 Iowa state) #10 team in the country. All I'm saying is Oklahoma hasn't proved they can hang with a top 5 team. We have. Therefore you cannot penalize ND In favor of Oklahoma. Texas just puts that cherry right on top.

 

[ickythump1225]

Iowa will likely pass ND this week or next. OSU may too. However, OSU will lose to OU or Baylor.

Iowa doesn't matter, because if they win out... the other OSU drops and we move up.

I'm starting to feel like we may need alot more help than we were going to a few weeks back.

On the basis of what? That impressive 5 point win over a below .500 Minnesota team? We had a comparative game and handled our business.

 

[GATTACA!]

The reason OU worries me is there SOS down the stretch looks better than ours. As far as MSU, they'll take OSU out by doing it so basically they'll swap and won't take an extra spot. I think that's why nobody is talking much about it. Like Iowa will if they win out.

I dont understand this mentality. So what if their SOS down the stretch is better than ours? The only thing that should matter is your SOS for the entire season. They haven't played anyone all year and lost to a garbage Texas team. Why should the fact that the only tough teams they play are at the end of the season?

Oklahoma will never get in over an 11-1 ND this is a pointless discussion.

 

[WaveDomer]

Remember last week the top 4 were easy and ND was well above number 5? I think we are good.

 

[IrishinSyria]

I dont understand this mentality. So what if their SOS down the stretch is better than ours? The only thing that should matter is your SOS for the entire season. They haven't played anyone all year and lost to a garbage Texas team. Why should the fact that the only tough teams they play are at the end of the season?

Oklahoma will never get in over an 11-1 ND this is a pointless discussion.

I don't know, wins over Tennessee (proj. 8-4), Baylor (proj. 10-2 or 11-1), TCU (proj. 10-2 or 11-1), and Okie St (proj. 10-2) would match up well with our 4 best wins... Stanford, USC?, Navy, and... Temple?

The argument, if it comes to it, will inevitably be what counts more: performance against a common opponent (favors ND) or quality wins (favors Oklahoma) or "quality of loss" (favoring ND). If it's close, Oklahoma winning the Big XII championship could hurt us. Nobody really knows what will happen though, because the committee is not internally consistent in what test they apply: SOS seems to have held the BIG XII teams back but done nothing to stop Ohio State, for example. Basically, anyone who claims to know for sure whether the committee will choose a 1 loss Irish team or a 1 loss Oklahoma team is full of it. It's as close to a coin flip decision as you can get.

 

[IrishSteelhead]

I just hope things aren't decided (Okie State finishes undefeated) before kickoff at Stanford. Regardless if that game ends up having no bearing on the post-season, the team better be ready to win that game physically and emotionally.

 

[Irish Insanity]

Agree that only one big 10 team gets in.

I still just can't see how if Oklahoma and ND have the same record the committee puts Oklahoma in. They lost to a sub .500 team who ND blew out and ND's loss would be to the number 1 team (if Clemson wins out). Just don't see Oklahoma jumping ND


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'What have you done for me lately' is what worries me.

I dont understand this mentality. So what if their SOS down the stretch is better than ours? The only thing that should matter is your SOS for the entire season. They haven't played anyone all year and lost to a garbage Texas team. Why should the fact that the only tough teams they play are at the end of the season?

Oklahoma will never get in over an 11-1 ND this is a pointless discussion.

You don't think it looks better for them than us, or a lot of teams, if they end up running the table the last 3 games against teams that may all end with 1, max of 2 , losses? While we run the table on 3 teams combined with a .500 record, they're running the table against a 29-4 record.
(I shot from the hip. I didn't look up any records but I doubt I'm far off)

 

[gkIrish]

I dont understand this mentality. So what if their SOS down the stretch is better than ours? The only thing that should matter is your SOS for the entire season. They haven't played anyone all year and lost to a garbage Texas team. Why should the fact that the only tough teams they play are at the end of the season?

Oklahoma will never get in over an 11-1 ND this is a pointless discussion.

I think it's incredibly short-sighted to have this mentality. There are plenty of good arguments for why they would get in ahead of us and plenty of good arguments for why they wouldn't. It's not clear cut. To say otherwise is just ND bias.

 

[Domina Nostra]

I think it's incredibly short-sighted to have this mentality. There are plenty of good arguments for why they would get in ahead of us and plenty of good arguments for why they wouldn't. It's not clear cut. To say otherwise is just ND bias.

Haha. I think its a little clear cut to say its "ND Bias." It may be common-opponent bias.

There are a lot of football fans who would be pissed off if a team that lost to Texas on a neutral field (who we blew out and who got blown out by Iowa State) jumped a team whose only loss was to the # or #2 team at their place.

 

[STLcardz-NDirish]

Ohio State still has MSU, Michigan, and Big10 champ game
Alabama still has Auburn(anything can happen in rivalry games) and SEC champ game
Iowa still has Nebraska and Big10 champ game
Oklahoma still has TCU and OKst

What are the odds those 4 teams win all those games? extremely low. All we need is one of those to happen and we are guaranteed in. Personally I think we are in regardless, if we win out.

But Just like last week, teams we don't expect to lose will (we could even fall victim to this reality).

Win out and we are in.

 

[gkIrish]

Haha. I think its a little clear cut to say its "ND Bias." It may be common-opponent bias.

There are a lot of football fans who would be pissed off if a team that lost to Texas on a neutral field (who we blew out and who got blown out by Iowa State) jumped a team whose only loss was to the # or #2 team at their place.

Are you willing to acknowledge that it's not just about comparing each team's only loss?

Ohio St. lost to a bad Virginia Tech team last year while TCU lost @# 5 or 6 Baylor by 3. If it was only about who you lost to then TCU would have been in.

 

[rocket66]

It's going to be a close call. We might need an "osu vs Wisky " performance when we play Stanford to remove any doubt for the committee. A convincing win on the road over a top 15 team would be enough to secure a spot, imo.


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