NCAA Playoff Committee Rankings 2014 (Unranked)

[irishfan]

Michigan State already beat Nebraska.

And they will play them again in B1G Championship

 

[woolybug25]

My initial reaction was "No", but looking at the standings, I think the one takeaway for me is that the filtering seems to go:

1.) Record
2.) Perceived Quality Wins
3.) Bad Loss

Looking at it that way, I'd think they'd fall to the top of the 2-loss teams, maybe staying ahead of the few bottom 1-loss teams.

How do you figure? If anything, I would say that they put very little credence into the quality of losses. Otherwise, we wouldn't have an MSU team that got prison raped by Oregon, or Oregon for that matter... who lost to an unranked team. Then the obvious, that we were passed by both of those team despite losing closely, on the road, to the #2 team in the country.

 

[Buster Bluth]

What if Stanford wins out? What if UNC keeps winning?

Dude Stanford is staring at a 6-6 season right now.

Assuming Notre Dame finished 11-1 (I think they go 10-2 though), this is how I see the quality of the schedule finishing:


Florida State: 13-0

Arizona State: 10-3
Louisville: 8-4
Southern Cal: 8-4
Navy: 7-5
Rice: 7-5
Stanford: 6-6
Northwestern: 5-7
Michigan: 4-8
Syracuse: 3-7
Purdue: 3-7

It's mediocre at best.

 

[woolybug25]

Ty Fuqing Willingham...

 

[Rhode Irish]

That perpetuates my point. If Bama lost to Ole Miss, and barely squeaked by Arky, why is Bama sitting at 6? Their wins are barely better than ours. Playing a little of devil's advocate here but I hope y'all can see my point.

Especially because their big "we're back" win was against a Texas A&M team that I am convinced is terrible.

 

[Buster Bluth]

Honest question....should we want Louisville to beat Florida State? A sizeable win over a (9-3) Louisville squad would look better, and show that the Irish are gaining steam, having just beaten the team that beat the team they controversially lost to earlier in the season.

 

[koonja]

Honest question....should we want Louisville to beat Florida State? A sizeable win over a (9-3) Louisville squad would look better, and show that the Irish are gaining steam, having just beaten the team that beat the team they controversially lost to earlier in the season.

Definitely. The committee discounts losses, so we might as well have lost to the #10 team rather than #2 if it means we have a chance to beat the #15 team later on, rather than that team beating unranked.

GO CARDS!

 

[nd_fan]

Honest question....should we want Louisville to beat Florida State? A sizeable win over a (9-3) Louisville squad would look better, and show that the Irish are gaining steam, having just beaten the team that beat the team they controversially lost to earlier in the season.

No we need FSU to win out or our "good loss" will look bad

 

[Rhode Irish]

Honest question....should we want Louisville to beat Florida State? A sizeable win over a (9-3) Louisville squad would look better, and show that the Irish are gaining steam, having just beaten the team that beat the team they controversially lost to earlier in the season.

Yeah I was thinking the same thing. The close loss to #2 FSU clearly hasn't helped us, so maybe if Louisville can get into the #10-14 range for our game wins against them and ASU will give us the SOS boost we need.

 

[Rocknes Ghost]

Ty Fuqing Willingham...

Fire Ty!

That feels right.

 

[MNIrishman]

No we need FSU to win out or our "god loss" will look bad

No other schools can claim a God Loss like ND can!

 

[Woneone]

How do you figure? If anything, I would say that they put very little credence into the quality of losses. Otherwise, we wouldn't have an MSU team that got prison raped by Oregon, or Oregon for that matter... who lost to an unranked team. Then the obvious, that we were passed by both of those team despite losing closely, on the road, to the #2 team in the country.

The Bad Loss was more for the lower 1-loss teams (OSU / Utah).

The Oregon game was not a prison raping, and I hope the members of the committee don't view it as such. MSU was, in my opinion, in control until about half way through the 3rd quarter, then boom. It was much closer than the score indicated.

Oregon lost the currently 12th ranked team, but beat a team in the top 18. And, if I'm right after a quick cursory glance, each 1-loss team ahead of us has a win against a team in the top 20. We don't have one in the top 25.

Maybe I'm wrong, but I think the committee is being conservative. I think (yea, I know, captain obvious) that record will be the overriding factor in this. I don't think a 2-loss SEC team jumps a respectable 1-Loss team. To break ties, it looks like they look at what they portray as quality wins (how that changes week to week, who knows). If ASU is Top 12'ish when we beat them, we'll be fine.

Well, just in case I'll be rooting for USC to win out, so we can spank them.

Edit: And based on this, I agree with rooting for L'ville Thursday.

 

[nd_fan]

No other schools can claim a God Loss like ND can!

yea yea it was a typo

 

[ep1987]

Based on the Long's comments in the "Committee Chair Jeff Long Explains Rationale Behind Rankings" article ... Hello Sun Bowl.

I thought this format sucked when it was first announced. Still do.


Here's their Top 25 with Sagarin's Strength of Schedule following the Won Loss Record.


1. MissSt (7-0) 17
2. FSU (7-0) 41
3. AUB (6-1) 2
4. Miss (7-1) 7
5. ORE (7-1) 34
6. ALA (7-1) 3
7. TCU (6-1) 48
8. MSU (7-1) 63
9. KSU (6-1) 37
10. ND(6-1) 36
11. UGA (6-1) 22
12. Arizona (6-1) 49
13. Baylor (6-1) 54
14. ASU (6-1) 30
15. NEB (7-1) 58
16. OSU (6-1) 60
17. Utah (6-1) 38
18. OU (5-2) 11
19. LSU (7-2) 9
20. WVU (6-2) 13
21. Clem (6-2) 25
22. UCLA (6-2) 12
23. ECU (6-1) 114
24. Duke (6-1) 116
25. UL (6-2) 66

So two teams are above ND that shouldn't be and two teams are below ND that shouldn't be.

If we win out we almost certainly make the playoffs. We'll lack a signature win but have a tonne of good wins with no cupcakes and the narrow loss to FSU will be enough to keep us ahead of any 2 loss team (except maybe a 2 loss SEC champ). There's a tonne of football to be played and teams ahead of us will fall.

Notre Dame is less than 50% to win out but we don't need to worry about getting in if we do.

 

[Fbolt]

What is interesting is that this poll completely disregarded the other polls, at least in re: to ND. With that, will this poll - or is this poll - attempting to influence the others?

That is something I can see.

Bottom line-we can whine, cry and eat cheese. ND has to win out and then see where they stand at the end.

 

[Grahambo]

I had an epic rant all ready to go..then I said fuck it.

This is bullshit and plays right into the SEC bias. And I'm not even sure the win over FSU would have placed them in the Top 4.

 

[wizards8507]

1. I checked the thread to see how the meltdown was going. You guys didn't disappoint, thanks!

2. Check the Stanford gameday thread. I predicted that they weren't worth a damn and that beating them would be useless.

3. Remember when EVERYONE said how freaking awesome the committee would be? I didn't.

4. EVERYONE is on the nuts of the SEC West, not just ESPN. In fact, the SEC is significantly lower overall in the ESPN power rankings than the committee rankings.

5. Yes, this is an "I told you so" post. I don't care. I've been ridiculed all season for being a hater and every other thing. We haven't beaten ANYBODY this year and the rankings reflect that.

 

[autry_denson]

Yeppers. It's setup now that even 2 loss SEC teams will be put in front of us. So now we have a system where they don't even have to beat eachother. Just show up, beat your cupcakes and scream "ess see see" and boom... you're in the playoffs.

I would bet a lot of $ that no two-loss team will be in the playoffs ahead of ND with 1 loss. These are smart people, for the most part. They would be mocked and discredited if that scenario happened, and they all know that.

One real problem with this system is the decision to publish rankings at this point in the season. Ranking systems are path-dependent, in the sense that the desire for coherence from week to week may outweigh the desire for a final ranking that makes sense and matches the overall quality of the seasons put together by each of these teams. This places an unnecessary constraint on the committee - their rankings have to reflect week-to-week changes while also settling on a final 4 teams that represent the best teams in the land. These goals are at odds with each other, and inflate the importance of timing of wins and losses relative to overall quality. It could, as a result, generate some bad outcomes that are consistent w the temporal pattern of rankings but don't capture the overall quality of the team in an unbiased way.

They should have just waited the season out and announced the 4 playoff teams. This week-to-week rankings theme is a marketing gimmick, and it's going to distort the outcome.

That said, it won't distort things enough to put a 2 loss team ahead of ND. Absolutely no way that happens.

 

[woolybug25]

1. I checked the thread to see how the meltdown was going. You guys didn't disappoint, thanks!

2. Check the Stanford gameday thread. I predicted that they weren't worth a damn and that beating them would be useless.

3. Remember when EVERYONE said how freaking awesome the committee would be? I didn't.

4. EVERYONE is on the nuts of the SEC West, not just ESPN. In fact, the SEC is significantly lower overall in the ESPN power rankings than the committee rankings.

5. Yes, this is an "I told you so" post. I don't care. I've been ridiculed all season for being a hater and every other thing. We haven't beaten ANYBODY this year and the rankings reflect that.

edit - I hope you read it before I deleted it, Wizard. Just trying not to get banned tonight.

 

[GATTACA!]

Yeah I was thinking the same thing. The close loss to #2 FSU clearly hasn't helped us, so maybe if Louisville can get into the #10-14 range for our game wins against them and ASU will give us the SOS boost we need.

Plus it adds the opportunity for us to take their playoff spot. They play no one the rest of the way while we still have a top15 ASU and what would become a top15 Louisville by the time we get to them with a win over FSU.

 

[IrishLax]

Doesn't matter. Don't waste your energy.

And no, I don't think we're one of the best 4 teams. Vegas guys think we're about the #10-11 team in the country in terms of "strength" ... and like I've said repeatedly, I won't start caring about where we're slotted until we get through ASU. We're through that tough game 8-1 and then it's time to start really paying attention.

There are so many hurdles to us even going 11-1 that it's a complete exercise in futility to start worrying about where we're ranked in fucking October.

 

[Grahambo]

Doesn't matter. Don't waste your energy.

And no, I don't think we're one of the best 4 teams. Vegas guys think we're about the #10-11 team in the country in terms of "strength" ... and like I've said repeatedly, I won't start caring about where we're slotted until we get through ASU. We're through that tough game 8-1 and then it's time to start really paying attention.

There are so many hurdles to us even going 11-1 that it's a complete exercise in futility to start worrying about where we're ranked in fucking October.

True but doesn't make it any less bullshit.

66-3 win over Navy! We can do this!

 

[Cackalacky]

1. I checked the thread to see how the meltdown was going. You guys didn't disappoint, thanks!

2. Check the Stanford gameday thread. I predicted that they weren't worth a damn and that beating them would be useless.

3. Remember when EVERYONE said how freaking awesome the committee would be? I didn't.

4. EVERYONE is on the nuts of the SEC West, not just ESPN. In fact, the SEC is significantly lower overall in the ESPN power rankings than the committee rankings.

5. Yes, this is an "I told you so" post. I don't care. I've been ridiculed all season for being a hater and every other thing. We haven't beaten ANYBODY this year and the rankings reflect that.

Haha. There are several posters thst have made the same points you have but this is petty and sad.

 

[Irish#1]

Question... does the loser of the Auburn (3) v Ole Miss (4) game this weekend fall out of the top 10?

While we lose to the #2 team and get punished, look for the loser of this game to sit around 6 or 7. If that indeed happens you know there is some major bias going on.

 

[DomeX2 eNVy]

If TCU beats WVU by 10 or more at WVU; would you rank them ahead of Alabama who beat WVU by 10 on a neutral (southern) field; and that is Bama's quality win so far?

I sure would; but I'm not holding my breath.

 

[BGIF]

edit - I hope you read it before I deleted it, Wizard. Just trying not to get banned tonight.

Wooly with the diplomacy, who knew.


Actually, I liked the original post.

 

[irishfan]

It seems like a lot of teams are getting the benefit of the doubt for a loss while others are not.

You can't look at K-State and Michigan State and think that MSU should be ranked higher. Wins over nearly identical teams. K-State with a tight loss to #3. MSU with an 18-point loss to #5. I know one was on the road. But 18 points is BAD.

Bama's best win is #20 WVU. Yes, they beat A&M by 59. They also beat Arkansas by 1 and Tenn by 14. They are having a very up and down year. Yet they are clearly being boosted up by a "quality" loss to #6 Ole Miss.

My biggest complaint is that the committee honestly seems like they looked at the 2 toughest games everyone played. And nothing else. MSU's 2nd best win is.....against Michigan? It honestly seems like they saw the loss to Oregon and the win over Nebraska and that's it.

 

[IrishinSyria]

Doesn't matter. Don't waste your energy.

And no, I don't think we're one of the best 4 teams. Vegas guys think we're about the #10-11 team in the country in terms of "strength" ... and like I've said repeatedly, I won't start caring about where we're slotted until we get through ASU. We're through that tough game 8-1 and then it's time to start really paying attention.

There are so many hurdles to us even going 11-1 that it's a complete exercise in futility to start worrying about where we're ranked in fucking October.

Dude, fans are going to fan. It's a complete exercise in futility to do anything but watch and enjoy the games. Us worrying about recruiting, or week 13 rankings is no more productive than us worrying about week 8 rankings.

I don't envy the committee's job though. You can make a case for basically anyone from #3-17 to be higher or lower than they currently are.

 

[irishfan]

Doesn't matter. Don't waste your energy.

And no, I don't think we're one of the best 4 teams. Vegas guys think we're about the #10-11 team in the country in terms of "strength" ... and like I've said repeatedly, I won't start caring about where we're slotted until we get through ASU. We're through that tough game 8-1 and then it's time to start really paying attention.

There are so many hurdles to us even going 11-1 that it's a complete exercise in futility to start worrying about where we're ranked in fucking October.

Can we start worrying in 4 days when it's November?

 

[ulukinatme]

Pretty disappointed we were ranked that low. I expected we may be 1-2 spots lower than our AP ranking, but 10 was more than I expected. I'm surprised Ole Miss is in the top 4 honestly. Aside from a lucky win against 'Bama, they don't have anything else of note on their resume. A&M is no where near as good as people thought, and Boise State is no longer coached by Petersen.

I could see cases where the other teams ahead of us would get a pass like TCU and KSU, not sure about Michigan State though since they got destroyed in the 2nd half by Oregon. I think our game against FSU was more impressive in comparison. That's why I expected us around #8 or even #7.