January 1 | Oklahoma State | Fiesta Bowl

[Whiskeyjack]

Alabama coulda/shoulda hung 38 on them. Feel like Saban took his foot off the gas so they can get more G5 easy matchups in future playoffs.

ND Haters said the same about their semifinal victory over us last year.

 

[ThePiombino]

Alabama coulda/shoulda hung 38 on them. Feel like Saban took his foot off the gas so they can get more G5 easy matchups in future playoffs.

This is a silly take.

 

[IrishSteelhead]

Why did the line go from ND -2.5 to a Pick Em today? Need to know before I put a pretty penny on the Fighting Freemans.


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[IrishLax]

Why did the line go from ND -2.5 to a Pick Em today? Need to know before I put a pretty penny on the Fighting Freemans.


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I was just about to come here to post this. Scared that the fix is in or that there is some late breaking news that Vegas knows but we don’t.

 

[Irishize]

Why did the line go from ND -2.5 to a Pick Em today? Need to know before I put a pretty penny on the Fighting Freemans.


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Only thing I can think of is Domer fans started to bet ND moving the line. Pretty obvious the sharps had no feel for this game b/c the line hasn’t moved until now.

 

[IrishSteelhead]

Only thing I can think of is Domer fans started to bet ND moving the line. Pretty obvious the sharps had no feel for this game b/c the line hasn’t moved until now.

That would move it further away from a PK though if that was the case. The opposite happened. Sharps wont place their bets until tomorrow morning. They wait until the day of usually.

*I yoloed the bet already, so it certainly is some cataclysmic news


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[Sea Turtle]

We are far more talented than OSU. We should win by two scores. We need to.

 

[EvilleIrish]

A line moving that late either means a bunch of sharp money is coming in on Ok St or there’s somebody out for ND.

 

[IrishLax]

A line moving that late either means a bunch of sharp money is coming in on Ok St or there’s somebody out for ND.

Pretty much. I wish I knew which one? Either someone got COVID really late today OR a bunch of sharp money was waiting until tonight to come pouring in on Oklahoma State. Almost all early betting was on ND.

 

[EvilleIrish]

Pretty much. I wish I knew which one? Either someone got COVID really late today OR a bunch of sharp money was waiting until tonight to come pouring in on Oklahoma State. Almost all early betting was on ND.

Really weird. Don’t see this too often.

 

[IrishSteelhead]

Really weird. Don’t see this too often.

It is. *Sharp money isnt going to move the line a field goal in a few hours. It has to be multiple players out for this to happen.

Our two key players are already out, so it must be at least a handful of starters or something to that effect.

*unless one of T Boone Pickens heirs dropped a billion on the Pokes


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[IrishLax]

Really weird. Don’t see this too often.

Correct, even when there is crazy money one way (like 90%+ on Michigan tonight) you just do not ~3 point late shifts. When you do, there is almost always a specific reason (like players not being available).

 

[IrishLax]

It is. Sharp money isnt going to move the line a field goal in a few hours. It has to be multiple players out for this to happen.

Our two key players are already out, so it must be at least a handful of starters or something to that effect.


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Yeah this is pretty much what I’m thinking and it means people tested positive for COVID this evening (or got results back later today) and the news hasn’t come out publicly. If that’s NOT it then I just really don’t have another plausible explanation.

 

[Trait Expectations]

COVID related betting surges?

 

[IrishSteelhead]

Yeah this is pretty much what I’m thinking and it means people tested positive for COVID this evening (or got results back later today) and the news hasn’t come out publicly. If that’s NOT it then I just really don’t have another plausible explanation.

I cashed out my bet until we find out WTF is going on.


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[Whiskeyjack]

Yeah this is pretty much what I’m thinking and it means people tested positive for COVID this evening (or got results back later today) and the news hasn’t come out publicly. If that’s NOT it then I just really don’t have another plausible explanation.

That would be a remarkable coincidence given our COVID protocols. Whole team vaxxed, not testing asymptomatic players, everyone reported available within the last 24 hours, etc.

So that would mean several key starters just began manifesting symptoms, were tested as a result, and all came back positive.

 

[Ndaccountant]

My hunch is the pros bet OSU and big. Honestly, it makes sense. The value was OSU, not ND. Its going to likely be a low scoring game and there is no KW to bust things open. I know Tyree and Diggs are good, but KW is just so important given the OL play. My hunch is OSU drops 8 most of the day, daring ND to go deep. Its going to be a struggle to score. My hunch is everyone will be Pyning for a QB change by mid 2nd quarter.

 

[IrishSteelhead]

That would be a remarkable coincidence given our COVID protocols. Whole team vaxxed, not testing asymptomatic players, everyone reported available within the last 24 hours, etc.

So that would mean several key starters just began manifesting symptoms, were tested as a result, and all came back positive.

Ok. So lets pretend for a second the football team isnt solely comprised of milk drinking choir boys.

Is it possible a few broke curfew, and were found at Christies Cabaret?

Or people truly think BKs abrupt departure will cause a sloppy performance. Personally, I see this as a WVU under Bill Stewart bowl game. Team is gonna be excited as hell and play their asses off.


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[Ndaccountant]

Ok. So lets pretend for a second the football team isnt solely comprised of milk drinking choir boys.

Is it possible a few broke curfew, and were found at Christies Cabaret?

Or people truly think BKs abrupt departure will cause a sloppy performance. Personally, I see this as a WVU under Bill Stewart bowl game. Team is gonna be excited as hell and play their asses off.


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Possible, but not likely. Every betting site I have read said OSU and the Under.

 

[IrishLax]

My hunch is the pros bet OSU and big. Honestly, it makes sense. The value was OSU, not ND. Its going to likely be a low scoring game and there is no KW to bust things open. I know Tyree and Diggs are good, but KW is just so important given the OL play. My hunch is OSU drops 8 most of the day, daring ND to go deep. Its going to be a struggle to score. My hunch is everyone will be Pyning for a QB change by mid 2nd quarter.

It’s also possible that all sharps were holding their bets until COVID news was official and that if public was big on ND then this is just a ~1 point market correction off the opening line. But the last time I remember sharp money moving a line this hard against ND was that Michigan game in 2017 that we actually ended up winning when all was said and done. It’s very rare that a line moves this much right before kickoff.

Some books also will preemptively move lines before they take sharp action (or refuse to take a bet at the publicly offered line). But still, this kind of line movement is weird and it sure isn’t good.

 

[irish o'phile]

Uh oh. Hopefully, we don’t all wake up to a New Years ND Covid surprise.

 

[SBirishlawyer]

Are any of the pay sites late nighting it to track this down?

 

[zelezo vlk]

Who knows. But my Longhorn friend was shocked I thought ND would beat the Pokies straight up.

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[SBirishlawyer]

Gotta be honest it is impossible for me to shake the ptsd of all the other major bowl losses going back to what 91 or 93

 

[irish o'phile]

Gotta be honest it is impossible for me to shake the ptsd of all the other major bowl losses going back to what 91 or 93

Seriously, seeing the OKst orange and black legit gave me 2001 Oregon State flashbacks. ND has to start winning these kinds of games.

 

[SBirishlawyer]

Praying freeman is the hero we deserve. But felt like KW sitting out was probably the difference maker. He was by far our best offensive weapon and they way he led and rallied the team changed games. Im extra miffed he sits out bc be is a captain. When you accept that C i think that its a reasonable expectation you play out the season.

 

[Irishize]

That would move it further away from a PK though if that was the case. The opposite happened. Sharps wont place their bets until tomorrow morning. They wait until the day of usually.

*I yoloed the bet already, so it certainly is some cataclysmic news


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You are correct. I gotta quick posting while drinking. Should’ve said the opposite or folks just figuring it’s a toss up so take the dog?

 

[irish o'phile]

ND has the overall talent edge, and the opponent doesn’t have their best coordinator. It all comes down to the ND offensive line. Barring whatever shifted the betting line being something terrible, I think ND wins this. The recruiting is far better than it has been for decades and the coaching and strength program are legit. Crossing my fingers.

 

[Irishokie]

Is it because we lost to Cinci and others are seeing how they did in the playoffs against the eventual champs?

 

[Whiskeyjack]

ND has the overall talent edge, and the opponent doesn’t have their best coordinator. It all comes down to the ND offensive line. Barring whatever shifted the betting line being something terrible, I think ND wins this. The recruiting is far better than it has been for decades and the coaching and strength program are legit. Crossing my fingers.

Agreed. Subject to your caveat about unknown bad news, I still think we'll win with at least a two possession lead.