Hurricane (The Cyclone) Season 2018

[Huntr]

So Hurricane Michael is about to liven the place up a bit. I know IrishinFL is also in Tally, maybe a couple of other posters, too. Stay safe, boys.

 

[BGIF]

The NHC 2:00 pm Advisory projects:

Michael will move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico Tuesday and Tuesday night, is expected to move inland over the Florida Panhandle or Florida Big Bend area on Wednesday, and then move northeastward across the southeastern United States Wednesday night and Thursday.

Apalachicola peninsula is the centerline of the projected cone but the spaghetti models run from the Big Bend area to Biloxi.

 

[IrishSteelhead]

We are supposed to leave for Destin in less than a week. Should we cancel due to the hurricane and Red Tide?

*we have no $$$ tied up in any reservations or anything, staying at a friends


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[Huntr]

We are supposed to leave for Destin in less than a week. Should we cancel due to the hurricane and Red Tide?

*we have no $$$ tied up in any reservations or anything, staying at a friends


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Won't really know until Tuesday evening/Wednesday morning. Would be best to ask your friends at that time.

 

[BGIF]

We are supposed to leave for Destin in less than a week. Should we cancel due to the hurricane and Red Tide?

*we have no $$$ tied up in any reservations or anything, staying at a friends


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Red Tide - Statewide Status

Red Tide Current Status

NEW: Daily Sample Map External Website
This map contains the last eight days of sampling and is updated daily at 5 p.m.
Please be sure to click on individual dots for sampling details.

Red Tide Status Update for October 5, 2018


The next mid-week red tide status report will be posted on Wednesday, October 10.
=======================================


https://www.wtsp.com/article/news/tropical-storm-michaels-impact-on-red-tide-may-not-be-good-news/67-601849441

Tropical Storm Michael's impact on red tide may not be good news
The storm could have a significant impact on red tide...and that might not be a good thing.
Author: Isabel Mascarenas
Published: 9:07 PM EDT October 7, 2018
Updated: 11:25 PM EDT October 7, 2018

ST. PETERSBURG, Fla. - “This could be that storm,” says Dr. David Hastings, a professor of Marine Science and Chemistry at Eckerd College.

Tropical Storm Michael could be the storm that has a significant impact on red tide.

“There are two possibilities,” said Hastings.

He says it comes down to wind and amount of rain.

“The hopeful one is that strong winds from the hurricane blow red tide offshore,” says Hastings.

But if Tropical Storm Michael turns into a rain maker, it could be bad news .

“The heavy rain will dilute farm and agriculture areas of all the nutrients, nitrates, phosphates and rain them into the beaches and coastal areas that serve to fertilize the red tide, exactly what we don’t want,” explains Hastings.

Dr. Hastings says heavy rain and runoff could turn the already 145-mile-long bloom that stretches more than 10 miles out into the Gulf into an even bigger algae bloom.

“If there are a lot of nutrients released into the water from the heavy rain, it would be a bad thing and it doesn’t matter how close the storm is. I think it’s a likely possibility,” says Hastings.

With millions of dollars going towards research, Dr. Hastings says it’s time money went to better regulation.

“Eight to 10 years ago, our water management districts were excellent, were better at monitoring, but in the last eight to 10 years, we’ve seen a decrease in monitoring and a decrease in concern for the nutrients going into the ocean,” says Hastings.

Better regulation may help solve some of the mystery behind red tide says Hastings. He says, “We know the ingredients that go into Red Tide but we don’t know the exact recipe.”

 

[Irish YJ]

We are supposed to leave for Destin in less than a week. Should we cancel due to the hurricane and Red Tide?

*we have no $$$ tied up in any reservations or anything, staying at a friends


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

If staying with friends, play it by ear. Hurricane is supposed to be in and out fast I believe, and hurricanes can actually be good to combat Red Tides.

 

[IrishSteelhead]

Thanks for the info guys. Guess we will see later this week.


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[Irish YJ]

Thanks for the info guys. Guess we will see later this week.


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Just read the above report posted by BGIF.
Also pinged my buddy from SW FL. He said fast moving storms (like this) are typically positive (disrupting them) for red tides. It's the slow movers with tons of rain that aren't good. He said regardless, the early impact is disruption.

 

[loomis41973]

MIl headed down there Friday to Panama City beach. Won't arrive until Saturday. She's bound and determined to go.

 

[BGIF]

NHC 10:00 pm Projection now has the Center of The Cone making landfall near the Gulf Co/Bay Co boundary. The county seat of Bay County is Panama City.

Earlier today there was a mandatory evac order for parts of Bay Co.


And for those considering travelling from Indiana, Destin is now with the Projected Cone.

Spaghetti models seem to be favoring this move to the West.


Destin is a little more than 50 miles west of Panama City. The NHC 10:00 pm notes winds near 90 mph winds ewith hurricane force winds extending out to 35 miles from the Center and tropical force winds extending up to 175 miles from the Center.

IF the current projection holds with landfall near the Gulf Co/Bay Co those tropical force winds would extend into Mobile Bay in Alabama.

 

[BGIF]

NHC 10 am has Michael strengthening with the track coming continuing to move toward the west closer to the Panama City area.

 

[Irishize]

We are supposed to leave for Destin in less than a week. Should we cancel due to the hurricane and Red Tide?

*we have no $$$ tied up in any reservations or anything, staying at a friends


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Friends of mine are down there now. They posted pics of all the dead fish on the shore & that the Red Tide is pretty intense. They’re making the best of it but if I didn’t have any money on the line, I’d cancel.

 

[Irishize]

https://youtu.be/A8bRlF9bZws

 

[BleedBlueGold]

Have a hotel booked for my wife's Fall Break in Pensacola Beach. Decided to stay in Birmingham, AL tomorrow night and wait out the storm. I'll call the hotel on Thursday and check the status. Hoping the best for everyone involved. Worst case, we spend break in Nashville and not Pensacola. We shall see.

 

[Sherm Sticky]

There is a poster on this site who is originally from Minnesota and now lives in that area. IrishinFL is his handle I believe.

 

[Irish#1]

One of our customers has a facility in Crestview, FL. (just north of Destin). They just notified us they will be closed tomorrow due to the weather.

 

[Huntr]

Mexico Beach, Port St. Joe and St. George/Apalachicola gonna get creamed. Predicted rainfall in Tally only like 4 or 5 inches and I'd bet we only get tropical force winds once it loops NE. We'll see.

 

[IrishInFl]

Mexico Beach, Port St. Joe and St. George/Apalachicola gonna get creamed. Predicted rainfall in Tally only like 4 or 5 inches and I'd bet we only get tropical force winds once it loops NE. We'll see.

And I'm in the Northeastern portion of town.

 

[BGIF]

NHC 10:00 pm Advisory has Michael Cat 3 approaching Cat 4.

A northward motion is expected through tonight, followed by a northeastward motion on Wednesday and Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Michael will move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico through tonight. The center of Michael's eye is then expected to move inland over the Florida Panhandle or Florida Big Bend area on Wednesday, and then move northeastward across the southeastern United States Wednesday night and Thursday, and move off the Mid-Atlantic coast away from the United States on Friday.

Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher gusts. Michael is now a strong category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some further strengthening is expected overnight and on Wednesday, and Michael is forecast to become a category 4 hurricane before it makes landfall in the Florida Panhandle or the Florida Big Bend area. Weakening is expected after landfall as Michael moves across the southeastern United States.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km).

The minimum central pressure recently measured by the reconnaissance aircraft was 947 mb (27.97 inches).

The 10 pm Projected Track now has Michael making landfall around the Bay Co/Gulf Co Line near Mexico Beach about 15 miles E.S.E of Tyndall AFB. IF that projected track held with landfall at Mexico Beach, Hurricane Force winds would extend well out into the bay past St George and Dog Islands piling up hour storm surge in Apalachee Bay. Tropical force winds would extend across the bay to the west coast of Florida's Peninsula, past Steinhatchee to the Gainsville Metro Area. It's 188 miles from Mexico Beach to Gainsville, as the cormorant, palm fronds, and aluminum siding flies.

 

[BGIF]

BULLETIN

Hurricane Michael Intermediate Advisory Number 14A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
100 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018

...MICHAEL BECOMES AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...AND HEAVY
RAINFALL EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.7N 86.6W
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM SSW OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM SW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...210 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB...27.91 INCHES


Data from Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 130 mph
(210 km/h) with higher gusts. Michael is now a category 4 hurricane
on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional
strengthening is possible today before Michael makes landfall in the
Florida Panhandle or the Florida Big Bend area. Weakening is
expected after landfall as Michael moves across the southeastern
United States.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175
miles (280 km).

The 1am Projected Tracks still for Mexico Beach.

 

[BGIF]

4am Bulletin

Michael about 145 miles SSW of Panama City. Moving at 13 miles an hour. (Panama City is already getting tropical from outer bands that extend 185 miles from center.

Pressure continues to drop

140 mph winds

Projected Track has shifted 15-20 miles to the WEST smack dab at the middle of Tyndall AFB.

Tropical force winds extend 185 miles from center. (Daphne, AL on the East coast of Mobile Bay is 143 miles from Tyndall. Mobile, AL is about 188 miles.)

Storm Surge at Tyndall 9-13 feet. Tyndall is listed at Elevation 10.

 

[IrishInFl]

Apparently there's a chance it gets to cat 5.Tallahassee is in big trouble, but it looks like Panama City is totally screwed. If it wasn't for family here, I'd be in Jacksonville by yesterday.

 

[BGIF]

Weather Channel reports pressure has dropped from 937 mb to 933 mb. Lowest pressure storm to hit the Panhandle. NWS reports no Cat 4 Storm has hit this area before.

 

[Huntr]

Apparently there's a chance it gets to cat 5.Tallahassee is in big trouble, but it looks like Panama City is totally screwed. If it wasn't for family here, I'd be in Jacksonville by yesterday.

I watched the WCTV forecast this morning and have been all over the NHC updates. I think our window for most activity is like later afternoon through midnight-1 am. We're going to get maybe 60 mph winds late tonight, and that will suck hard enough, but nothing like PCB, Mex Bch and SGI. Those places are going to be flattened. We were thinking of heading to Apalachicola this past Sunday, too, or maybe down to Angelo's, but ran out of time, so we didn't get there. Wish we had, now.

Feel for those folks in Eastpoint who lost their shit in the fire earlier this summer and now have to face this. A lot of them are still in RVs and FEMA trailers.

 

[IrishInFl]

I watched the WCTV forecast this morning and have been all over the NHC updates. I think our window for most activity is like later afternoon through midnight-1 am. We're going to get maybe 60 mph winds late tonight, and that will suck hard enough, but nothing like PCB, Mex Bch and SGI. Those places are going to be flattened. We were thinking of heading to Apalachicola this past Sunday, too, or maybe down to Angelo's, but ran out of time, so we didn't get there. Wish we had, now.

Feel for those folks in Eastpoint who lost their shit in the fire earlier this summer and now have to face this. A lot of them are still in RVs and FEMA trailers.

Franklin county is in big trouble. It's one of the poorest in the state, and this doesn't help.

 

[Huntr]

Power flickering already and there's very little wind. Yay, Talquin...

 

[calvegas04]

Why would one want to live in FL again?

 

[ACamp1900]

Why would one want to live in FL again?

JJ Grey

 

[zelezo vlk]

Publix

 

[Irish YJ]

Got about an hour before the eye hits. Prayers for those in the path. Looks likes it getting pretty bad in areas between PCB and Apalachicola.

This one came on quick. Wonder how the weather folks were so "off" in the earlier predictions.