Gambling Degenerate Thread
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Dale
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[TWEET]https://twitter.com/brett_mcmurphy/status/1425455712738713602?s=21[/TWEET]
Interesting line to post. Don’t see this at most books. I’d if I had access have to go on that first group and then small on a Alabama on its own (others are a wasted throw in lowering the odds, even if barely).
I don’t normally do Futures at less than lottery tickets odds though. I think it’s not worth the time value in most cases unless it’s a stone cold lock. I did play OSU to win the Big Ten when it was -110 which was shocking.
Interesting line to post. Don’t see this at most books. I’d if I had access have to go on that first group and then small on a Alabama on its own (others are a wasted throw in lowering the odds, even if barely).
I don’t normally do Futures at less than lottery tickets odds though. I think it’s not worth the time value in most cases unless it’s a stone cold lock. I did play OSU to win the Big Ten when it was -110 which was shocking.
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I wonder if there's a way to arbitrage this. Like taking group 1 + the future on Bama on another book.
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Who all here lives in a state where sports betting is legal? Michigan and Indiana opened up for it earlier this year and there's been some talk Ohio could have it by the end of the year.
greyhammer90
the drunk piano player
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It's legal in TN now, which is really surprising since it seems like our state government likes to get involved and legislate morality in every other aspect of life.
Dale
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I personally can’t lay money with Georgia until I see the offense. I’ll probably look for a live opportunity in that game
Dale
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I did my own returning production + havoc #s this year with some borrowing on offensive metrics since they were too hard to calculate. My plan is to bet based off the data and reading/experts not take it a step further and make it a power rating like many do with similar data.
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You only bet on games you think you have the data on?
I play 3-10 games a week that I feel are locks for income over action. But I play games like Clemson/UGA for fun. Georgia & 3 in Charlotte feels right on so I took Clemson of course to root against SEC and forget that I don't like Clemson for a couple of hours. I don't like the game as money maker but I couldn't imagine not being in on the SEC's demise.
Dale
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not really that I don’t have data on Georgia’s offense just don’t trust it. I’d say I’m somewhat the same as you just described, I’ll bet research driven on B12/B10/SEC this year but big games I’ll go gut, and sometimes means just live since I’ll be watching anyways
BrownerandFry
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Umm, I'm keeping hidden on this, but a simple cautionary note.
GAmbling is a business, not a straw pool
So be very very judiciious at allowing one's tastes to dictate your asset allocation in betting..
On GA versus Clemson?
Bobby, you know the whole saga of JT Daniels
Golden Child, dazzled them at the Dome camps
FRosh year star.
then discoveered
bottled beer
southern california companision
the toxic cocktail of adulation and sloth
got fat first, hurt second, Slovised third..
He wandered in the desert and wound up in Athens.
He leanned Dawg habits and found out that Kirby Smart is not the scared little chump that Helton is.
Daniels is born again.
and just do the numerical analysis on his starts last year.
Second, list to "In the Garage" second episdoe. Massive tell in there on trevor Lawrence from no less than Kyle Hamilton.
DJ ain't Lawrence now and may never be.
Third,
just pull the lineups up from ourlads and other sites.
Sure they can change
But then do a quick "Blue chip analysis" on the starting lineups of both squads.
You will either believe your prejudice or your lying lstatistically analytical eyes.
Your choice, not mine.
GAmbling is a business, not a straw pool
So be very very judiciious at allowing one's tastes to dictate your asset allocation in betting..
On GA versus Clemson?
Bobby, you know the whole saga of JT Daniels
Golden Child, dazzled them at the Dome camps
FRosh year star.
then discoveered
bottled beer
southern california companision
the toxic cocktail of adulation and sloth
got fat first, hurt second, Slovised third..
He wandered in the desert and wound up in Athens.
He leanned Dawg habits and found out that Kirby Smart is not the scared little chump that Helton is.
Daniels is born again.
and just do the numerical analysis on his starts last year.
Second, list to "In the Garage" second episdoe. Massive tell in there on trevor Lawrence from no less than Kyle Hamilton.
DJ ain't Lawrence now and may never be.
Third,
just pull the lineups up from ourlads and other sites.
Sure they can change
But then do a quick "Blue chip analysis" on the starting lineups of both squads.
You will either believe your prejudice or your lying lstatistically analytical eyes.
Your choice, not mine.
greyhammer90
the drunk piano player
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What is it about this board that we always have this guy?
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Domer Domain is a Loquacious Free Zone.
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Stats, schmatz... I'll lay $50 to root against the SEC. If I get an extra $50 back, bonus.
Irish du Nord
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I honestly think Georgia is never going to live up to expectations. Glad about that too, what a slimy program. I have no issue outwardly cheering for Clemson in this game, in addition to believing they are a better team.
Black Irish
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It's not a true Degenerate Gambler thread until someone posts a story about losing all his money on a booze & coke filled weekend in Atlantic City and having to either blow a dude in a bus station bathroom or rob a liquor store to have enough money to get back home.
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Legal for me. Did well betting on NCAA lacrosse playoffs and Premier Lacrosse League, but have done poorly on everything else. Going to stick to NCAA football and lacrosse moving forward.
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I'm looking forward to it for sure. I've thought about driving 15 minutes north to place some bets, might have to do that once football starts. Which books/apps does everyone use?
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I use FanDuel and Caesars. Caesars has lacrosse lines.
BleedBlueGold
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I use Draft Kings. Started out with golf bets. "I'll just put $25 on each of the four Majors," turned into "GIVE ME ALL THE ODDS BOOSTS!" I hit on a few NBA bets. Bet a lot during the Finals. Did well with the British Open. Bombed during the Olympics (men's 4x100 relay killed). I cashed out my initial deposit and put the rest of my House money on NFL futures. Bold move Cotton.
As of July 1, it's technically legal in South Dakota, but only in Deadwood and there are 0 sports books open at this time. They waited until July to even start talking about the regulations. Supposedly they will have final regulations approved September 8 and will be ready when the NFL season starts. We'll see.
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The O/U win total for ND is 8.5 on FanDuel right now. I ended up taking the over.
Right now, ND projects to have 4 difficult games, 2 mediocre games, and 6 layups. So unless you expect them to get upset multiple times while a TD+ favorite or you expect them to do worse than 2-2 against USC/Wisconsin/Cinci/UNC then I don't see how you think 9 wins isn't the floor barring injuries, a COVID outbreak, or something else crazy.
Right now, ND projects to have 4 difficult games, 2 mediocre games, and 6 layups. So unless you expect them to get upset multiple times while a TD+ favorite or you expect them to do worse than 2-2 against USC/Wisconsin/Cinci/UNC then I don't see how you think 9 wins isn't the floor barring injuries, a COVID outbreak, or something else crazy.
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I'm likely to take USC over 8.5 as well but waiting until the last possible second because their teams recently seem to be made of glass. I have a hard time seeing them picking up more than 2 losses in conference play.
Dale
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Doesn’t feel great but Stroud 40/1 to win the Heisman is my ticket to a winning season lol. Took it months ago during spring ball thought it was ridiculous at that #. It’s been moved down for weeks but with him the official starter seeing closer to 14/1.
Dale
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ND has too many check boxes to the bad side apparently to not doubt (unless you are Bama) according to Vegas.
- Replace QB
- Replace WRs
- Replace OL
- Scheme change on D
That’s how some national betting guys I’ve listened to see it.
Id take the over as well but have a don’t bet ND superstition
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#3 and #4 on that list are what concern me. I feel like ND is getting discounted because of difficulty of schedule... but they don't actually play any "tier 1" teams like Bama. And BK has shown the ability to beat the teams he "should" rather consistently. I feel like as long as the defense doesn't have a big drop off from Lea and the OL plays adequately they should be fine. From what I've heard from fall camp, both QB and WR have been upgraded. Hope that's not all hype.
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I will ride my bike to Deadwood if The Gem Steakhouse adds the Swearengen Sportsbook... and a brothel. (I've got ugly friends)
Irish du Nord
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Gonna be tough to win the Heisman after pOSU starts 0-2...
EvilleIrish
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ND down to -7.5 and ND is +100 on that line.