Foreign Policy

[dublinirish]

caricature has always been a part of UK politics going back to Spitting Images that ran in the 80's. Believe me cartoon balloons are very tame in comparison

 

[Irish YJ]

caricature has always been a part of UK politics going back to Spitting Images that ran in the 80's. Believe me cartoon balloons are very tame in comparison

I'm perfectly fine with it. I love the entertainment. And it goes to show the US is not the only shit show.....

Farage's point that they would never have allowed a baby Obama is spot on though. I think it really backfired on Khan though. His polling has been taking a hit, so he probably thought this was something cute that would get him a bump. It might, but now he will either 1) have a baby Khan floating around, or 2) deny the request of the Khan baby balloon, and be seen as a hypocrite. No win / no win

 

[Legacy]

China's tariffs will hit farm states hard, spare service-heavy states (USA Today)

The ripple effect should also hit the shipping industry hitting those states with international ports. Also worth considering is that although Alaska would evidence decreases in their fishing industry trade, other states whose fisherman catch in waters off Alaska, e.g. Washington, should also see their GDP suffer.

Tariffs threaten Alabama's auto industry, Doug Jones says (al.com)

China has been expanding its investments in energy supply with agreements with the U.S. for pipelines in Alaska and West Virginia as well as a port in Texas, partial ownership or long-term leases in Australia, and treaties with Canada as well as becoming a trade partner in the new Transpacific Partnership after Trump withdrew from the previous one. Trade partners in the new treaty include Mexico and Canada. Recently, the Canadian government acquired Canadian pipeline from Kinder Morgan in order to complete the project. That pipeline would transport heavy oil from the oil sands in Alberta to British Columbia ports. How that will affect the capacity sent through American pipelines for international transport will be determined. Obviously, the Chinese agreements for projects in the U.S. may be ended or suspended.

Did Canada buy an oil pipeline in fear of being sued by China? (Guardian)

 

[Irish YJ]

Combined average Tariff and Tax Rate
US - 9% (<3% tariff)
China - 27% (7% tariff)

And on cars
US - 2%
China - 25%

And the currency manipulation through the 2000s that 1) helped them grow the US trade deficit, and 2) allowed them to buy up more than a trillion $ in US debt (which is probably the biggest national security risk).

https://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2011/03/infographic-how-china-manipulates-its-currency/73201/

 

[connor_in]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Trump repeatedly railed against the Nord Stream 2 pipeline between Russia and Germany, asking why the US should protect Germany from Russia when Berlin purchases so much gas from Moscow. Putin won’t like that line one bit. Interesting to see if it comes up in Helsinki <a href="https://t.co/j019Mi4lJl">pic.twitter.com/j019Mi4lJl</a></p>— John Hudson (@John_Hudson) <a href="https://twitter.com/John_Hudson/status/1016949738141126656?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">July 11, 2018</a></blockquote>
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">My thoughts on President Trump's remarks in Brussels this morning: <a href="https://t.co/x0k3k0lOkA">pic.twitter.com/x0k3k0lOkA</a></p>— John Kerry (@JohnKerry) <a href="https://twitter.com/JohnKerry/status/1017066924805632002?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">July 11, 2018</a></blockquote>
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-cards="hidden" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">John Kerry criticized the Nord Stream 2 pipeline while he was Secretary of State in March 2016 saying there was no question it undermined Eastern European security lol <a href="https://t.co/on8FLKioA8">https://t.co/on8FLKioA8</a> <a href="https://t.co/xIMETX6P6B">https://t.co/xIMETX6P6B</a></p>— Saagar Enjeti (@esaagar) <a href="https://twitter.com/esaagar/status/1017070374826192898?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">July 11, 2018</a></blockquote>
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Secretary Kerry underscores U.S. view that Nord Stream II would have adverse impact in Europe <a href="https://t.co/JA9ElOnMX9">pic.twitter.com/JA9ElOnMX9</a></p>— EnergyAtState (@EnergyAtState) <a href="https://twitter.com/EnergyAtState/status/727951171072233472?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">May 4, 2016</a></blockquote>
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Biden: Nord Stream 2 pipeline is a 'bad deal' for Europe <a href="https://t.co/hQdMT6yvJ0">https://t.co/hQdMT6yvJ0</a> <a href="https://t.co/DQYxZ1IebR">pic.twitter.com/DQYxZ1IebR</a></p>— Reuters UK (@ReutersUK) <a href="https://twitter.com/ReutersUK/status/768856731183120387?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">August 25, 2016</a></blockquote>
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[Irish YJ]

Kerry needs to STFU and go back to swiftboating, joking about presidents getting killed, and insulting Iraq war veterans. He's always been a flip flopper.

 

[loomis41973]

Kerry needs to STFU and go back to swiftboating, joking about presidents getting killed, and insulting Iraq war veterans. He's always been a flip flopper.

A life long catcher.

 

[Irish YJ]

A life long catcher.

And he's not even relevant anymore... people don't care.
Perhaps he and HRC are thinking about joining up and losing again in 2020.

 

[Legacy]

North Dakota soybean processors hit hard by tariffs as China cancels orders

Iowa, U.S. soybean farmers disproportionately impacted by escalating trade war with China

Trump voters hit hard by tariffs are standing by him — for now

 

[Irish YJ]

British PM May warns rebels: Back me or risk 'no Brexit at all'
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-may/british-pm-may-warns-rebels-back-me-or-risk-no-brexit-at-all-idUSKBN1K412A

May is playing with fire. I don't know who is at more risk, her or Merkel.

 

[Legacy]

NAFTA's Impact on U.S. Agriculture

 

[Legacy]

In Face Of Protectionism, EU And Japan Sign Huge Open-Trade Deal (NPR)

Japan and the European Union have signed a massive trade deal that creates an open-trade zone for more than 600 million people. The EU and Japan account for about one-third of GDP worldwide.

The deal has been in the works for years, but the parties reached an agreement in principle a year ago, several months after President Trump pulled the United States out of the Trans-Pacific Partnership, a major trade deal with Japan and 10 other nations.

At a EU-Japan summit on Tuesday in Tokyo, the envoys were clear that the agreement was intended to send a message about the value of trade and cooperation.

"The document we signed today is much more than a trade agreement," said European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker. "What we're saying is that we believe in open, fair and rules-based trade. What we are saying is that a trade agreement is not a zero-sum game, but a win-win for the involved parties."

A new trade deal between the EU and Japan (The Economist)

FREE-TRADE agreements have seemed out of fashion as President Donald Trump has set about scotching some of America’s. But on July 5th Cecilia Malmström, the EU trade commissioner, and Fumio Kishida, the Japanese foreign minister, announced they had achieved consensus on a Japan-EU Economic Partnership Agreement (JEEPA). In front of the cameras, they swapped Japanese Daruma dolls, talismans of perseverance and good luck, and, they hope, of a win-win agreement.

The timing of JEEPA was just as carefully co-ordinated. When negotiations started in 2013, it was neither side’s main priority. But now both want to show that they can fill the vacuum left by America’s withdrawal under Mr Trump from its role as the world’s trade leader. To highlight its political importance, they note that this is the first trade agreement to mention the Paris climate accord, another deal Mr Trump has spurned. Haste is handy: the EU wanted success before Brexit negotiations and national elections swamp its agenda.

The deal is about more than political symbolism, however. Average tariffs between the two sides are already low, but prizes are still there to be grasped. Exporters from the EU pay €1bn ($1.1bn) in export duties to Japan each year, and on agricultural products face average tariffs of 21%. JEEPA will slash Japanese tariffs on beef, pork and wine, eliminating 85% of the tariffs on agricultural food products going into Japan. European producers of Roquefort cheese or prosecco can cheer: their products become two of 205 protected “geographical indications”. Similarly, only feta from Greece will be sold under that name.

 

[MJ12666]

In Face Of Protectionism, EU And Japan Sign Huge Open-Trade Deal (NPR)


A new trade deal between the EU and Japan (The Economist)

A new trade deal between the EU and Japan (The Economist)

Quote:

FREE-TRADE agreements have seemed out of fashion as President Donald Trump has set about scotching some of America’s. But on July 5th Cecilia Malmström, the EU trade commissioner, and Fumio Kishida, the Japanese foreign minister, announced they had achieved consensus on a Japan-EU Economic Partnership Agreement (JEEPA). In front of the cameras, they swapped Japanese Daruma dolls, talismans of perseverance and good luck, and, they hope, of a win-win agreement.

The timing of JEEPA was just as carefully co-ordinated. When negotiations started in 2013, it was neither side’s main priority. But now both want to show that they can fill the vacuum left by America’s withdrawal under Mr Trump from its role as the world’s trade leader. To highlight its political importance, they note that this is the first trade agreement to mention the Paris climate accord, another deal Mr Trump has spurned. Haste is handy: the EU wanted success before Brexit negotiations and national elections swamp its agenda.

The deal is about more than political symbolism, however. Average tariffs between the two sides are already low, but prizes are still there to be grasped. Exporters from the EU pay €1bn ($1.1bn) in export duties to Japan each year, and on agricultural products face average tariffs of 21%. JEEPA will slash Japanese tariffs on beef, pork and wine, eliminating 85% of the tariffs on agricultural food products going into Japan. European producers of Roquefort cheese or prosecco can cheer: their products become two of 205 protected “geographical indications”. Similarly, only feta from Greece will be sold under that name.

Interesting that they claim that this is a "Free Trade" deal when it includes tariffs.

 

[ACamp1900]

Interesting that they claim that this is a "Free Trade" deal when it includes tariffs.

Fake Free Trade???

 

[Legacy]

Moscow Mystery: Where Did All Its Treasuries Go? (Bloomberg)

Its American debt holdings have plunged far more than any other nation’s.

Major foreign holders of U.S. treasury securities, as of March 2018 (in billion U.S. dollars)

Top 3 - China $1.18 Trillion, Japan $1.03 Trillion, Ireland $317 Billion

Who Owns the U.S. National Debt?

The Biggest Owner Is You!

Intragovernmental Holdings. This is the portion of the federal debt owed to 230 other federal agencies. Intragovernmental holdings total $5.6 trillion, almost 30 percent of the debt. Why would the government owe money to itself? Some agencies, like the Social Security Trust Fund, take in more revenue from taxes than they need. Rather than stick this cash under a giant mattress, these agencies buy U.S. Treasurys with it.

By owning Treasurys, they transfer their excess cash to the general fund, where it is spent. Of course, one day they will redeem their Treasury notes for cash. The federal government will either need to raise taxes or issue more debt to give the agencies the money they will need.

Which agencies own the most Treasurys? Social Security, by a long shot. The U.S. Treasury published a report as of December 31, 2017. The data is in the Monthly Treasury Statement, Table 6. Schedule D-Investments of Federal Government Accounts in Federal Securities. It's updated quarterly.

As of that date, the total debt was $20.5 trillion and intragovernmental debt was $5.67 trillion.

Current Foreign Ownership of U.S. Debt
In April 2018, China owned $1.18 trillion of U.S. debt. It's the largest foreign holder of U.S. Treasury securities. The second largest holder is Japan at $1.03 trillion. Both Japan and China want to keep the value of the dollar higher than the value of their currencies. That helps keep their exports affordable for the United States, which helps their economies grow. Despite China's occasional threats to sell its holdings, both countries are happy to be America's biggest foreign bankers. China replaced the United Kingdom as the second largest foreign holder on May 31, 2007.

If China decides that owning U.S. Treasuries is not in their best interests and/or retaliates for a trade war and they start to unload them as more people retire and draw SS...
If the federal government continues to spend and needs to borrow more money and sees exports income drop....
If we withdraw from NAFTA or see more trade between other nations instead of with us....
If the economy retracts...

 

[Legacy]

Roundly criticized.

White House readies plan for $12 billion in emergency aid to farmers caught in Trump’s escalating trade war

The funds will come through direct assistance, a food purchase and distribution program, and a trade promotion program.

It will rely in part on a Depression-era program called the Commodity Credit Corporation, a division of the Agriculture Department created in 1933 to offer a financial backstop for farmers.

Soybean prices have fallen particularly hard in the past few months, though Trump has tried to deflect blame and promised to somehow take care of these farmers, many of whom are from politically crucial states like Iowa and Wisconsin.

The new plan at the Agriculture Department would advance emergency funds for these farmers but likely not provide a long-term solution if the trade disputes with China and other countries persist.

Because the program was created during the Depression, it does not rely on new congressional approval. It allows the CCC to borrow up to $30 billion from the Treasury Department to “stabilize, support, and protect farm income and prices.”

Still, some Republicans several months ago had warned against using the CCC as part of a trade-war related bailout, saying it could distort market forces and pay farmers for products they don’t produce. And there was biparitsan criticism from Republicans and Democrats on Tuesday to what the White House was trying to do. At least two Republicans said the plan equated to a type of welfare program for farmers.

"Our farmers have been in nonstop, saying they want trade, not aid, and now they’re being put on welfare,” said Sen. Bob Corker (R-Tenn.). “So the tariff policies that have been put in place by the administration are now causing them to invoke a welfare policy for our farmers which I’m sure is not what they wish. So pressure is continuing to build. We’re getting more and more complaints I know the administration is also and hopefully soon this ill-thought out policy will end.”

Sens. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) and Ben Sasse (R-Neb.), meanwhile, had equally harsh criticism about the Trump administration’s new plan.

“If tariffs punish farmers, the answer is not welfare for farmers — the answer is remove the tariffs,” Paul wrote on Twitter.

Other comments:
Senator Ben Sasse, Republican of Nebraska:

This trade war is cutting the legs out from under farmers and White House’s ‘plan’ is to spend $12 billion on gold crutches. This administration’s tariffs and bailouts aren’t going to make America great again, they’re just going to make it 1929 again.

Brian Kuehl, the executive director of trade group Farmers for Free Trade:

The best relief for the president’s trade war would be ending the trade war. This proposed action would only be a short-term attempt at masking the long-term damage caused by tariffs.

Meanwhile, Trump's proposed cutting crop insurance and the Farm Bill passed by the House would allow farm subsidies and crop insurances as well as significant cuts to SNAP (food stamp program). Many small to medium farmers rely SNAP both for food assistance and as providing customers to buy their crops.

TRUMP PROPOSES 33% CUT IN CROP INSURANCE

House farm bill seeks to restrict food stamp benefits while allowing subsidies for billionaires

Since 2002, Congress has added in multiple means-testing for federal farm subsidies to prevent them from going to the hands of wealthy farm-owners. But tucked away in Sec. 1603 of new bill, is an exemption for "pass-through" businesses from the means testing requirements.

In practice, this would mean that with a simple accounting trick, billionaire farm owners would once again be eligible for lucrative farm subsidies.

"It'a basically cronyism," said Daren Bakst, a Senior Research Fellow in agriculture policy at the conservative Heritage Foundation.

"Someone in Beverly Hills might be getting a check because somehow they're 'farming' in Iowa," Bakst added. "There are too many people who think they can get away with providing billions of dollars to a small section of the agriculture industry, and they think they can do it because they think people aren't paying attention."

A study by the EWG showed that prior to the 2008 rule change, 50 members of the Forbes 400 list received subsidies, including Richard DeVos, the billionaire father of Education Secretary Betsy DeVos (net worth: $5.6 billion), Microsoft co-founder Paul Allen (net worth: $17.8 billion), and Charles Schwab (Net worth: $6.4 billion).

For farmers on SNAP, House farm bill cuts would hurt in more ways than one

 

[dublinirish]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">"Propaganda today is not a wall, not a dike holding back information from reaching the people. It is a flood, overwhelming our critical thinking." <a href="https://twitter.com/Kasparov63?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@Kasparov63</a> - <a href="https://t.co/tY1NldmPwT">https://t.co/tY1NldmPwT</a></p>— Julian Dominguez (@StetCred) <a href="https://twitter.com/StetCred/status/1027195243022757889?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">August 8, 2018</a></blockquote>
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[Legacy]

In one move, Trump eliminated US funding for UNRWA and the US role as Mideast peacemaker (Brookings, Sept 7, 2018)

Same article as Fox News' (AP)
Trump Administration Ends $200 Million in Funding for Syria Stabilization Programs
(AP, Time, August 17, 2018)

 

[Irish YJ]

Hate to see Haley go.

I'd be good with Dina Powell or Richard Grenell. I'd kinda prefer Grenell stay doing what he's doing though. He's been tough on the Europeans. Same situation with Huntsman in Russia. Hook could be a dark horse. Nauert is another interesting name out there.

 

[TDHeysus]

Hate to see Haley go.

Nikki Haley is going to be a tough act to follow....

Condeleeza Rice would be an absolute homerun-shot if she were to be appointed. A very-smart, independent, experienced, supremely qualified person who happens to be black and female - the left would flip the F out.

 

[Irish YJ]

Nikki Haley is going to be a tough act to follow....

Condeleeza Rice would be an absolute homerun-shot if she were to be appointed. A very-smart, independent, experienced, supremely qualified person who happens to be black and female - the left would flip the F out.

Don't see that happening as long as Bolton is the USNSA

 

[Bluto]

The role of Christians in the struggle for justice in Palestine

https://mondoweiss.net/2018/09/christians-struggle-palestine/

Interesting article about and perspective from Palestinian Christians.

 

[BGIF]

Nikki Haley is going to be a tough act to follow....

Condeleeza Rice would be an absolute homerun-shot if she were to be appointed. A very-smart, independent, experienced, supremely qualified person who happens to be black and female - the left would flip the F out.

Yeah, yeah, yeah but ... what does her high school yearbook say?

 

[Irish YJ]

The whole ME circus is getting interesting. I've been hoping for Saudi to be exposed for years.

Funny how the Turkish timing of the Pastor's release corresponds with them mounting the case against the Saudis.

-US intercepts of plot to lure the reporter
-Video of the guy going in and never coming out
-And supposedly the video and audio of the crime has now been shared with US intel.

It'll be interesting.

But WTF if Turkey has unquestionable proof, do they have a joint investigation with SA? Why the need?

All that said, unless we're going to totally stay out of ME bullshit, I'd still sell them arms. SA>Iran...

 

[Legacy]

Carl Icahn

Carl Icahn

Icahn says today that tariffs are "a dangerous game" and have helped cause market crashes. The S&P dropped 4% last week, especially in tech, in part due to concerns about rising borrowing costs and slowing global markets.

Icahn has heavy investments in tech and energy. He was a Special Advisor to Trump on deregulation and a close friend. Icahn resigned in August, 2017 after a New York article that detailed his conflicts of interest. In March 2018, Icahn denied that he had any knowledge that Trump was going to raise tariffs on steel imports before selling thirty million dollars of stock in a company that would be hit hard by steel tariffs. The company's stock dropped twenty percent during the time Icahn was selling his stake.

China's agreement to invest in liquid natural gas with Cheniere Energy, the only exporter of LNG, and in which Icahn had a large stake, has been ended by China in recent rounds of "extremely dangerous" tariffs. Icahn began reducing his stake in Cheniere in June as the China-U.S. trade war increased.

 

[Irish YJ]

US sends Cali fighter planes for joint exercises in the Ukraine. Russians are pissed.

Good thing Trump is so soft on the Russians...

 

[Irish YJ]

Breaking... Saudi admits death. Said it was a product of a quarrel inside the embassy. I think they said the Saudis have arrested 18 people, but didn't catch all of it.

 

[Irish YJ]

So Merkel is a lame duck, done in by her immigration and pro-EU stance. It will be interesting if the SPD now pulls out and triggers an earlier election. SfD has to be licking their chops right now. Merz, who Merkel ran out of the party years ago, looks to be the one to replace her as party chair. He's a flat tax guy, and much more conservative on immigration.

This is not good for Macron...

 

[Irish YJ]

Turkish paper: CIA had recording of Saudi prince demanding Khashoggi be 'silenced'
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...demanding-khashoggi-be-silenced-idUSKCN1NR0XR

At this point, anyone that believes the SA BS is just a fool. Regardless, SA>Iran and the rest of the ME. Khashoggi was a Muslim Brotherhood follower, a buddy of OBL, and a SA spook before he fell out with the ruling party. Would not tank relations with SA over him for one minute.

 

[Legacy]

The Farm Bill has been passed "in principle" with specifics on programs funding of the $87 billion per year. The House bill with work requirements for food stamp recipients and which was opposed in the Senate was dropped in agreements between the House and Senate. Farm crop losses are impacted by the tariffs and trade war with China, as quantified in Agriculture and local web sites.

ON CAPITOL HILL, TENTATIVE AGREEMENT FOR A ‘STATUS QUO’ FARM BILL (Successful Farming, 11/29/18)

If SNAP work requirements are jettisoned, the farm bill is “primarily a status quo bill, I guess would be the best summary,” said Ferd Hoefner of the National Sustainable Agriculture Coalition. There would be no major changes to farm subsidies, public nutrition programs, or crop insurance. For conservation programs, money would shift somewhat from working lands stewardship to easement programs that retire fragile land from production or prevent development.

To offset losses the Trump Admin will subsidized farmers to the tune of $4.7 billion.
U.S. AG SALES TO CHINA TO FALL BY 45% IN TRADE WAR
(Successful Farming, 11/30/2018)

China, formerly the No. 1 customer for U.S. ag exports, will buy a comparatively paltry $9 billion worth of those exports this fiscal year, a startling 45% cutback due to the trade war, said the USDA on Thursday. Soybeans, in particular, are paying the price, with markedly smaller sales worldwide at the same time a record crop will swell the U.S. stockpile to an unprecedented size.

Specific to Iowa losses and impact to their state economy:
Tariffs could have big impact on these farmers (Futurity, Sept 30, 2018)