Expectations

[IrishLax]

I don't know if this really deserves its own thread, but couldn't think of anywhere else to put this.

One thing that has struck me last night is how Freeman has a completely different set of expectations from Brian Kelly during his first two years. Sure, people were happy with the blowout win over a top 10 USC team with the reigning Heisman winner at QB, but on many levels it was "expected"... which tempers enthusiasm, and is also interesting when you consider what that means for where the bar is set for Freeman and his teams.

Kelly was inheriting what was considered a "bad" team... despite on paper / recruiting rankings having a LOT more talent on offense with guys like Rudolph, Floyd, TJ Jones, 5* Dayne Crist (who ended up being a bust), a bunch of highly rated OL, and a bunch of highly rated RBs (many of whom would play in the NFL). But they were considered bad because they were coming off of middling seasons... Weis' last year, in particular, was a weird one though as every game he lost was a one score game that ND could've or should've won. Ironically, pre-season win totals set by Vegas for Kelly in his first couple of years were very similar to what was set for Freeman these past two years.

Nevertheless, when Brian Kelly totally sucked for his first two seasons people graded him on a curve. Barely beating a very bad USC team on the road thanks to a miracle drop by Ronald Jones? Euphoria. Beating a moderately ranked Utah team at home for the first of only two ranked wins in his first two years? Rush the field and act like you won a Super Bowl. And I get it... the highs are higher when you're coming off of long stretches of very low lows... but Kelly's seat was very comfortable despite objectively mediocre-to-bad results. We're talking losses four losses to unranked teams in 2010 (including to Navy and Tulsa though Tulsa would finish #24 in the country) and another four unranked losses in 2011 (including South Florida) and a total record of 16-10. He also routinely got blown out against top ranked teams from 2010 through 2016 with an average season of 8.5 wins and 4.5 losses.

Simply put -- there is no chance in hell that people will give Freeman 7 years if he's averaging 8-5 style seasons -- yet it was tolerated by Kelly and was acceptable to most people even through the 4-8 disaster in Year 7. Why are expectations so much higher now? Is it because Kelly showed in the two recent playoff appearances that it is very possible for ND to compete at the highest levels so because we know it can be done and have seen it? Do we have a new "playoffs or bust" mindset? Is it because standards across CFB have changed with the move away from the BCS system? I'm just having a hard time squaring how much better Freeman has been then Kelly in competing against elite teams relative to how much talk there is about "bad coaching" and the like. Even more so applies to Al Golden whose stats are top tier but people have generally been unhappy with him through two years.

 

[CANONIZEFATHERSORIN]

Yes kelly revived the program. I want AP Top 15 finishes, so im looking for consistent 10-3, 11-2 finishes. If Marcus can manage that consistently ill be happy

 

[Irish4life]

I think people gave Kelly a pass because of how bad things were from 97-09...and also 2012 happened. If 2012 was a 10-2 season BK gets fired in 2016.

 

[IrishTusker]

Freeman hasn't been blown out yet either, which seemed to happen a lot under Kelly, especially on the road. Saban for example almost never gets blown out. The theory of Freeman's hire -high risk/high reward- is still plausible. The problem this year is the OC and offense generally, which is mostly not Freeman's fault. Looking forward to a new AD who does not meddle in these hires, Jerry Jones-style. We need experience and we have the resources to pay for it.

Freeman is also likeable and gets ND, unlike Kelly. (Although I grant that Kelly is a good coach.) The fact that Joe Montana is only back in SB now tells you something.

 

[Irish4life]

Freeman hasn't been blown out yet either, which seemed to happen a lot under Kelly, especially on the road. Saban for example almost never gets blown out. The theory of Freeman's hire -high risk/high reward- is still plausible. The problem this year is the OC and offense generally, which is mostly not Freeman's fault. Looking forward to a new AD.

Freeman is also likeable and gets ND, unlike Kelly. (Although I grant that Kelly is a good coach.) The fact that Joe Montana is only back in SB now tells you something.

Louisville was a blowout, we got a garbage time TD to make the score seem better than it was.

 

[irishff1014]

I think the mentality and the up beat atmosphere that Freeman has brought in with him. He wants to recruit, he wants the plays to be loved and held accountable at the same time. He wants Notre Dame to be the big name in all sports. Look how supportive he is of all the sports ND has. He isn’t getting blown out and he is putting a very competitive team together. The atmosphere that the fans and students bring. Everything is so much pumped up and exciting. He is so much more personable than Kelly every was.

We as fans as asking to much from a first time head coach. Me included. I should have expected more errors than what I actually thought would happen.

The Freeman culture at Notre Dame is second to none and Hartman said that last night.

 

[NDPhilly]

Amazing feeling knowing that and ND teams will “show up” for big games under Freeman, something that always up in the air under Kelly.

IMO that ability to get players up for big games + recruiting are not “teachable” traits for a coach. Hire a legit OC and improve in game decisions and we’re in business.

 

[FOTY977]

Recency bias. Fans are pretty funny and kind of dumb (takes one to know one) in general. Feeling like a QB and some “heart” in the leadership department being the only thing between ND and a title the last 5 years. At face value feels like missing pieces are filled with Freeman, so why not win it at all right now?

I don’t think much of this is correct, but captures the generally uninformed public’s take.

 

[BeauBenken]

I think one reason for the high expectations is honestly because of how well Freeman led teams have looked in some of these big time games -- close games with OSU; crushing USC and Clemson -- makes people realize that the potential is there to not just get to the playoffs but win some of these big games.

 

[Grahambo]

I don't know if this really deserves its own thread, but couldn't think of anywhere else to put this.

One thing that has struck me last night is how Freeman has a completely different set of expectations from Brian Kelly during his first two years. Sure, people were happy with the blowout win over a top 10 USC team with the reigning Heisman winner at QB, but on many levels it was "expected"... which tempers enthusiasm, and is also interesting when you consider what that means for where the bar is set for Freeman and his teams.

Kelly was inheriting what was considered a "bad" team... despite on paper / recruiting rankings having a LOT more talent on offense with guys like Rudolph, Floyd, TJ Jones, 5* Dayne Crist (who ended up being a bust), a bunch of highly rated OL, and a bunch of highly rated RBs (many of whom would play in the NFL). But they were considered bad because they were coming off of middling seasons... Weis' last year, in particular, was a weird one though as every game he lost was a one score game that ND could've or should've won. Ironically, pre-season win totals set by Vegas for Kelly in his first couple of years were very similar to what was set for Freeman these past two years.

Nevertheless, when Brian Kelly totally sucked for his first two seasons people graded him on a curve. Barely beating a very bad USC team on the road thanks to a miracle drop by Ronald Jones? Euphoria. Beating a moderately ranked Utah team at home for the first of only two ranked wins in his first two years? Rush the field and act like you won a Super Bowl. And I get it... the highs are higher when you're coming off of long stretches of very low lows... but Kelly's seat was very comfortable despite objectively mediocre-to-bad results. We're talking losses four losses to unranked teams in 2010 (including to Navy and Tulsa though Tulsa would finish #24 in the country) and another four unranked losses in 2011 (including South Florida) and a total record of 16-10. He also routinely got blown out against top ranked teams from 2010 through 2016 with an average season of 8.5 wins and 4.5 losses.

Simply put -- there is no chance in hell that people will give Freeman 7 years if he's averaging 8-5 style seasons -- yet it was tolerated by Kelly and was acceptable to most people even through the 4-8 disaster in Year 7. Why are expectations so much higher now? Is it because Kelly showed in the two recent playoff appearances that it is very possible for ND to compete at the highest levels so because we know it can be done and have seen it? Do we have a new "playoffs or bust" mindset? Is it because standards across CFB have changed with the move away from the BCS system? I'm just having a hard time squaring how much better Freeman has been than Kelly in competing against elite teams relative to how much talk there is about "bad coaching" and the like. Even more so applies to Al Golden whose stats are top tier but people have generally been unhappy with him through two years.

With BK, the program, from a Subway alum’s perspective, felt very business-like. It also had a very smug undertone that at times was off-putting but having been through the Davie/Willingham/Weis era’s, it was welcomed because he brought winning with him. The moment he had a scintilla of winning, he was nearly off to the Eagles. Just never felt right with BK.

With MF, it feels much more personal. It’s like he has a charisma about him that makes you want to run through a wall for him. He brought soul and spirit to the program which felt was lacking previously. He seems genuine in what he says and seems to actually…care. There’s just a vibe with him that you’d never get with BK.

Now, MF does have to win. Despite the heartbreak to OSU, the sluggish Duke game, and the debacle at Louisville, the guys came prepared and fought all game long. That’s an indication that the program is on the right track. He’s learning. But he’s also winning. This offseason can be another step in the right direction with the coaching hires he’s going to have to make.

 

[IrishLax]

I think one reason for the high expectations is honestly because of how well Freeman led teams have looked in some of these big time games -- close games with OSU; crushing USC and Clemson -- makes people realize that the potential is there to not just get to the playoffs but win some of these big games.

Yeah in stark contrast to Kelly, here is how Freeman has done against top rated opponents:

• @ #2 Ohio State ... bad offense, but they were leading on the road until the very end of the third quarter and competed the whole game.
• @ #16 Syracuse ... blew them out.
• vs #4 Clemson ... blew them out.
• @ #6 USC ... not a great performance on the road, lost by two scores.
• vs #19 South Carolina ... won a close one.
• vs #6 Ohio State ... let one get away on a last second play.
• @ #17 Duke ... won a gutty one.
• @ #25 Louisville ... bad road performance in 3rd night game in a row against an undefeated team.
• vs #10 USC ... blowout win.

So against top 10 teams he is 2-3 and didn't shit the bed in any of them. He is 5-4 in ranked games, with only one game (Louisville) where his team didn't "show up." It's impossible to overstate how much better this is than Kelly in his first two years when it comes to "competing" being ready to play against opponents that are considered elite.

I'm not saying having high expectations are bad... for team like Alabama the expectations are "title or bust" because they earned that with yearly success... but taking a big picture view of things it's glaring how poorly Kelly performed in some areas until Kelly 2.0 started getting elite defensive production from Elko/Lea from 2017 onward. Freeman teams you expect to compete well in every game regardless of how "elite" the opponent is, and his bigger issue seems to be consistency against poor opponents rather than pooping our pants every time ND is on a big stage.

 

[Irishdrunk]

The expectations are set by Savvy Jack and the BOT, and therein lies your problem. Nothing has changed to make me think ND is serious about getting a Natty.

Make no mistake, this is Jack's program, not Marcus's program.

 

[Huntr]

BK took over what was an 8-4 type of program.

MFMF took over a 10-2 type of program.

 

[IrishTusker]

The expectations are set by Savvy Jack and the BOT, and therein lies your problem. Nothing has changed to make me think ND is serious about getting a Natty.

Make no mistake, this is Jack's program, not Marcus's program.

Okay. Jack's leaving soon though, and the next President will probably be similar to Jenkins. There is close to zero chance that Swarbrick went to Jenkins/BOT and they told him we can't pay a buyout. That was all Swarbrick/Powlus.

 

[NDPhilly]

I also thought ND competed pretty well at USC last year considering they had Drew Pyne out there

 

[thekid33]

Great questions.

I think that despite the talent on the team that BK took over the floor seemed much lower because of how Charlie's tenure ended.

BK left after an 11-1 season and had taken the program to a title game and 2 playoffs.

So, when MF took over, the floor seemed much higher than when BK took over

But, that 11-1 record was deceiving. They could and probably should have lost to to Toledo and Virginia Tech. And, there wasn't any talent returning at QB or WR.

So, I think MF has been essentially penalized by both the success (wins) and failures (recruiting) of the Kelly era.

I think BK benefitted from following a bunch of poor coaches, so a few 8 and 9 win seasons seemed like heaven.

When MF took over the job the perception was that the floor and ceiling were higher than when BK took over.

Yes, MF has learned on the job and made mistakes. But, I already trust him way more than BK to max out the potential of this program.

He recruits better. He thus far doesn't get blown out in almost every big game. He's not an asshole to people. He's not transactional in his relationships. He genuinely seems to love ND and "get it."

Whether or not he gets us over the hump remains to be seen.

But, our fan base should support him and feel lucky to have him.

That doesn't mean he isn't above criticism. But, the criticism should be legitimate and not irrational.

 

[irishandy]

Notre Dame will always have high expectations, you either love them or hate them just like the New York Yankees.

When Kelly was hired for ND he had HC experience, I will always give Kelly credit for changing the culture of the football program in a positive way in 2016.

With Freeman Notre Dame is his first HC job and he brings a different excitement that Kelly didn't bring. He won a big game last year with Clemson @ home and yesterday may not have have big game like the Ohio State game, but they way they beat USC and USC being a rival is a nice win for Freeman.

Freeman is the right coach to lead this program and overall I am happy with him so far.

 

[KPENN]

The expectations are set by Savvy Jack and the BOT, and therein lies your problem. Nothing has changed to make me think ND is serious about getting a Natty.

Make no mistake, this is Jack's program, not Marcus's program.

We get it. You don’t have to do this in every thread.

 

[ozzman]

 

[IrishTusker]

Kelly also benefitted from USC being down most of the time he was at ND. In 2013 Kiffin fired two weeks before the ND game; in 2015 Sarkisian was on leave or whatever the week before the ND game. This USC team is probably better than any USC team Kelly beat. Maybe 2017 was similar, we'll see how USC looks the rest of the way.

 

[OrlaNDomer]

Once the 12 team playoff starts I fully expect ND to be making playoffs just about every year. Like 4/5. I think 10-2 ND makes playoffs most years. Maybe I'm crazy, but that's where I'm at.

 

[Irishdrunk]

Once the 12 team playoff starts I fully expect ND to be making playoffs just about every year. Like 4/5. I think 10-2 ND makes playoffs most years. Maybe I'm crazy, but that's where I'm at.

Next year's schedule looks easier than this year's schedule as of right now. Staff needs to figure if they portal a QB or not. I would think if a decent QB is available they should do that.

 

[Luckylucci]

Kelly didn’t even take over serious football program. These are not even remotely the same. The facilities, nutrition, and S&C were full blown disasters before Kelly.

Freeman took over a well oiled machine that just needed a reasonable influx of talent at a couple of positions.

I honestly have no idea how the two can can even be considered close.

 

[calvegas04]

I think the expectations are a bit higher because we were sold on continuation.

 

[PutuporShutup]

The bar to reach is NOT Brian Kelly, we wanted and need better. M
Freeman also inherited a program that was in an extremely good spot. Of course some weaknesses.

We’re in year two and have not fixed wr and overall offense weakness

Like others have said and lax showed, freeman has this team believing and prepared to win vs the very big games. We were not well prepared to play 60 minutes at duke or Louisville.

An average OC with this talent and we’re probably 8-0, #2 in the country

 

[ulukinatme]

Expectations are if our OC was at least mediocre we would have been playing for a championship in January.

 

[stlnd01]

Kelly didn’t even take over serious football program. These are not even remotely the same. The facilities, nutrition, and S&C were full blown disasters before Kelly.

Freeman took over a well oiled machine that just needed a reasonable influx of talent at a couple of positions.

I honestly have no idea how the two can can even be considered close.

The difference is entirely in what came before.

BK took over a program that had mostly been wandering the wilderness for 15 years. Freeman took over a program that was competing for CFP berths.

So yeah expectations in the first couple seasons are higher. Anything less than competing for CFP berths feels like we’re going backward.

 

[Plankton]

Yeah in stark contrast to Kelly, here is how Freeman has done against top rated opponents:

• @ #2 Ohio State ... bad offense, but they were leading on the road until the very end of the third quarter and competed the whole game.
• @ #16 Syracuse ... blew them out.
• vs #4 Clemson ... blew them out.
• @ #6 USC ... not a great performance on the road, lost by two scores.
• vs #19 South Carolina ... won a close one.
• vs #6 Ohio State ... let one get away on a last second play.
• @ #17 Duke ... won a gutty one.
• @ #25 Louisville ... bad road performance in 3rd night game in a row against an undefeated team.
• vs #10 USC ... blowout win.

So against top 10 teams he is 2-3 and didn't shit the bed in any of them. He is 5-4 in ranked games, with only one game (Louisville) where his team didn't "show up." It's impossible to overstate how much better this is than Kelly in his first two years when it comes to "competing" being ready to play against opponents that are considered elite.

I'm not saying having high expectations are bad... for team like Alabama the expectations are "title or bust" because they earned that with yearly success... but taking a big picture view of things it's glaring how poorly Kelly performed in some areas until Kelly 2.0 started getting elite defensive production from Elko/Lea from 2017 onward. Freeman teams you expect to compete well in every game regardless of how "elite" the opponent is, and his bigger issue seems to be consistency against poor opponents rather than pooping our pants every time ND is on a big stage.

Freeman also didn't state in a post-game presser about how a segment of the roster weren't "his" guys, like someone else did.

 

[MacIrish75]

Expectations are good. But, handing a rookie coach this program was like handing a 16 year old the keys to a Corvette. Not a Ferrari. Not a Lambo. Still a learning curve and that’s what we’re seeing.

 

[LSWho?]

Expectations are good. But, handing a rookie coach this program was like handing a 16 year old the keys to a Corvette. Not a Ferrari. Not a Lambo. Still a learning curve and that’s what we’re seeing.

I didn't want MF hired initially, because I didn't think ND needed to suffer the consequences of inexperience, like not seeking a transfer portal QB, 10 men on the field, bad clock management, etc. I thought ND should pay with money for experience in order to avoid paying with losses for inexperience.

But once you go down this path with MF, you have to commit to it. You cannot be outraged that your 37-year old, first-time head coach is making mistakes: you chose this path. But the reason you chose it is that you think you might have a generational coach when all is said and done, one that will make ND fans remember him the way Florida fans remember Spurrier, Ohio State fans remember Tressel, and the way ND fans still feel about Lou Holtz. A coach that leaves a statue behind and reinvigorates the mythology of the program.

If this team has an experienced OC, they're 8-0 and aiming for a playoff berth. Even with a better OC, I don't know that we're good enough to beat Georgia; I doubt that we are in fact. But I know they would show up and compete, and that's enough for me to know we are on the right track.