Expectations for 2012?

[Patulski]

I'll comment on the subject of hand wringing over the loss of Lynch-I have posted many times that it was very significant. Its not the loss of this particular guy as much as it is the fact that a significant player would ever think of leaving Notre Dame once he was locked in. Never would have happened in past days due to the fact that you just dont leave the marquis school in college football especially if you are a star type player. I understand the situation but there have been other hard to deal with guys who stayed matured and were basically told you cant leave this school. Today Notre Dame does not have that clout with kids because of the deteriation of the success of this program. In the long run if these issues are true its best he did leave but the mere fact that he did speaks volumes on the deteriation of the storied college football program. Even Dorsey Levens had a beef he was behind 3 future NFL stars and it was time to play somewhere else-he did and then stood out himself in the NFL. My point is very very few guys ever left when they were performing well and I'm sure Lynch was not the first guy who was a special cares type of guy. Think about what I am saying here its not about Lynch-its about Notre Dame football. Of course you dont want guys around showing disrespect to people in authority and of course he will show us the errors of his ways if he struggles somewhere else but the mere fact that he left shows that now its ok to leave Notre Dame. There was a time when that was not an option.

I remember Arnold Ale leaving. Ale was the only freshman starter on the 1988 NC team. So, "never would have happened in past days" is simply not true.

There's no denying we're not the program we were, but it did happen when our mystique was powerful.

 

[NDPhilly]

Alright I want to here you guys game by game predictions. Let see it.

 

[PraetorianND]

First time poster, long time lurker...

I have been trying to put a number on how many wins we will have this season but have found it really difficult because of our QB situation, turnover history, and our ability to fall on our faces for one game every year. There are definitely levels of winnable games this season so I decided an aggregated likelihood of each games' winnability was best.

Here Goes:

Navy - 85%
Purdue - 80%
Michigan State - 60%
Michigan - 50%
Miami - 75%
Stanford - 65%
BYU - 80%
Oklahoma - 45%
Pitt - 90%
BC - 95%
WF - 90%
USC - 40%

Average = 71.25% = 8.55 Games

I think this ends up being a pretty good guess for our regular season win total. I think we can win between 8 and 9 games and I actually believe a 10 game season is possible (including a bowl win).

Thoughts? Am I overconfident in our ability to win some games?

 

[PraetorianND]

Great first post! Welcome to IE.

Looks like a good prediction to me. 8.5 is about right for the O/U on wins, I think.

Simulations like this, though far more complex, are how Phil Steele, Football Outsiders, etc. project wins and losses. Nice job on generating a W/L prediction with some measure of objectivity.

Thanks Whiskey!

I've had this discussion with so many of my ND friends and everyone gives me a number of wins and it is just very unrealistic.

I think part of the beauty of football (especially pro) is that there is always a chance a team can beat another team. Otherwise whoever was ranked #1 at the beginning of the season would end up the NC, and how often does that happen?

Plus ND has a strange ability to not do what is expected like losing to USF and destroying MSU in the same season.

 

[Bogtrotter07]

Isn't it sad that there is more of an any one team can beat another in pro than college football?

 

[tommyIRISH23]

Alright I want to here you guys game by game predictions. Let see it.

I think this team is a lot like last years team in that it still needs momentum to be on its side, I don't think theyre at that place where theyll beable to rally and stop the bleeding when things are going bad. I think last season with all its heart-break had more to do with mental toughness than bad luck. But, I do think that if we get onto a roll and can start 4/5-0 we could end up being a problem for Oklahoma and SC.

Michigan, in my opinion, will be the difference between 7/8 win season and a 9/10 win season. I think it helps tremendously that it is not only home, but under the lights because I have to imagine they'll play with a 300 lb chip on their shoulders bc of the UM and SC games last season. It may just be me, but in general Kellys guys seem tougher (not talking about Teo, CW, Eifert, Slaughter), maybe bc they aren't as jaded from the catastrophe of the last two Weis years. THey seem like they just want to "ball out" and have some "swag".

If ND beats Michigan and keeps it momentum up to Oklahoma I believe that this team will be extremely dangerous, especially with that defense. ND's line is going to be a nightmare for opposing offenses.

 

[stlnd01]

If ND beats Michigan and keeps it momentum up to Oklahoma I believe that this team will be extremely dangerous, especially with that defense. ND's line is going to be a nightmare for opposing offenses.

If by "beats Michigan and keeps its momentum" you mean "is undefeated going into Oklahoma," then, yeah, we'll be extremely dangerous. And highly ranked. We'll see, though. I'd still be thrilled with two-out-of-three-against-UM-MSU-Stanford-and-beat-the-rest.

 

[Black Irish]

I think MSU will be the litmus test for the season, because ND could wind up in the opposite situationcas last year. Instead of going in 0-2 with something to prove, the Irish should be 2-0 and looking ahead at Michigan the next week. ND could be looking past Sparty, taking for granted that they beat them last year when MSU had more talent. Playing on Sparty's home turf doesn't help, either. If the Irish roll hard on MSU, giving no quarter, then I will feel much more optimistic about the UM game. Our boys just can't let up this season.

 

[Chamellion]

I don't think we'll be looking past Msu, one of our biggest rivals and a team with an extremely dangerous defense and run game. That would be a sure sign of an undiciplined team.

 

[Patulski]

10 year records against upcoming 2012 opponents:

Wake Forest: 1-0
Miami: 1-0
Purdue: 7-3
Stanford: 7-3
Navy: 7-3
BYU: 2-1
Pittsburgh: 5-3
MSU: 5-5
Michigan: 4-6
Boston College: 3-5
USC: 1-9
Oklahoma: 0-0

 

[Bogtrotter07]

Interesting perspective.

 

[tommyIRISH23]

It looks like ND is starting to garner some faith outside its fan base. I just read an article where a Georgia Bulldog fan makes a bold prediction that the winner of the ND/USC game will be playing for the NC this year. He insisted that he wasn't crazy, and even goes as far as saying that he really dislikes ND but claims to have studied ND and strongly believes that they are going to have a very good team this year.

A little far out there even for the most irrational ND fan, but its nice to see BK getting props for the work he's done from the rest of the CFB world.

 

[BobD]

I expect jimmymac and the other IE members that are ND students to make sure Golson is on time everyday.

 

[tadman95]

Hearsay alert:

I read another board where someone posted that II had an article stating that Golson had really hit the tape room and had really improved his understanding of the offense.

(I don't care if they draw the plays up on the dirt on the field, play him. He is the best athlete on the team.)

The article also apparently said he was doing much better in the class room which is good to hear.

 

[Irish4Life14]

How can we stop denard robinson from tearing our hearts out 2 years in a row?

I say we force him to throw the football deep down the field and contain his running game by having Manti spy him the entire game.

I really hope that Michigan tries to execute a pro style offense, as this will limit the number of times denard will be in open space.

 

[Chamellion]

Can anyone with a subscription confirm the existence of said article?

 

[BobD]

Can anyone with a subscription confirm the existence of said article?

This?

The USC - Notre Dame Rematch for the National Championship. The Pac X Strikes Back - Dawg Sports

 

[NDPhilly]

Can anyone with a subscription confirm the existence of said article?

Look in the everett golson thread.

 

[stlnd01]

It looks like ND is starting to garner some faith outside its fan base. I just read an article where a Georgia Bulldog fan makes a bold prediction that the winner of the ND/USC game will be playing for the NC this year. He insisted that he wasn't crazy, and even goes as far as saying that he really dislikes ND but claims to have studied ND and strongly believes that they are going to have a very good team this year.

A little far out there even for the most irrational ND fan, but its nice to see BK getting props for the work he's done from the rest of the CFB world.

Yes, nice to get some props. Though I'd note a lot of people are predicting the winner of the USC/ND game will play for the title... and that that team will be USC.

 

[Chamellion]

This?

The USC - Notre Dame Rematch for the National Championship. The Pac X Strikes Back - Dawg Sports

I meant the Golson article, but that would be interesting. A ND championship and Eagles Super Bowl, would be a dream year in sports.

 

[Irish YJ]

I do think it's possible that we are unbeaten when we play USC if (1) the QB situation is worked out, and Golson hits his stride by game 3, and (2) our CBs step up. We should be able to handle UM if we don't fade like last year, and OK is very beatable IMO. Possible, yes, but we have to figure out 2 very important positions...

 

[tommyIRISH23]

Yes, nice to get some props. Though I'd note a lot of people are predicting the winner of the USC/ND game will play for the title... and that that team will be USC.

Really? Like who? I havent seen that anywhere. Most of the predictions I've seen have been in the 6-8 win categorie?

 

[NDhoosier]

Really? Like who? I havent seen that anywhere. Most of the predictions I've seen have been in the 6-8 win categorie?

no, its more in the 7-10 win range...

 

[Kanye West]

8-13 wins depending on turnovers, DB, and QB play. I'll take our front seven on both sides of the ball (RBs and Oline and TE) against 90% of CFB. If our DBs and QBs can step up we could be dangourous.

 

[NDinL.A.]

no, its more in the 7-10 win range...

8-13 wins depending on turnovers, DB, and QB play. I'll take our front seven on both sides of the ball (RBs and Oline and TE) against 90% of CFB. If our DBs and QBs can step up we could be dangourous.

I'd say more like 6-10 wins. 6 wins is most definitely in play. We have a brand new QB (most likely a freshman), an insanely difficult schedule, a game in Ireland to help give us jetlag going into an assumingly easy win against a team itching to get revenge, major depth issues in the secondary, inexperience at the CB position, questions at 3 of the 4 LB positions (yes, that is true - Fox/Calabrese disappointed, Shembo and Ishaq are inexperienced at their positions, as are Spond and Council), and questions at WR.

Now, there are definitely tons of positives that we all know about, but to think 6 wins isn't on the table means you haven't been paying enough attention. With our schedule, it can happen.

And sorry Kanye, 13 wins is a dream and would be a miracle.

 

[D-BOE34]

How do we give teams like BYU, Miami, Stanford, MSU, NAVY (really) Purdue ...excuses to beat us but not say how we can still win?

BYU - tough game but we should win. (scary)
Miami- really? according to what?. They lost anything good they had.
Stanford - Yup, teams don't drop off when they lose the best QB in CFB
MSU - Will be a better game last than last year but we still won 31-17 (New QB and we stopped the best thing they had, also. K. Cousins)
Navy - I didn't realize they weren't traveling either. Not to mention the extreme lack of talent they have to ours
Purdue - Wow. We travel back. Jet lag? Let us sleep everyday and we should still whoop ***.


If you think we are going to drop the easy games, then assume we drop all games. You will drink less and be much happier. I have been back and forth but now I call myself nuts. Not Kool-aide either. Goodluck with Mich, USC and OK. We should have beat the team projected as a dark horse Nat Champ this year (FSU) by a big margin. Tommy is gone folks. Hope you're ready...

 

[GreatGolson]

In light of BKs announcement reguarding Rees/Carlo do any expectations change?

 

[notredomer23]

In light of BKs announcement reguarding Rees/Carlo do any expectations change?

still 7-11 IMO

 

[stlnd01]

Tommy and Carlo change nothing. Neither is really a difference-maker. I think we beat BYU, Miami, Navy and Purdue (and all the various unranked teams on our schedule). Because we're clearly better than they are.
But the events of the last 15 years have conditioned me to place reasonable odds on us losing to a team we're clearly better than. May happen once.

I also think we're potentially better than Michigan, Stanford and MSU. But they're all strong opponents, so who really knows at this point. Right now, to me, all three are tossups. Figure 1-2 or 2-1.

I think Oklahoma and USC are better than we are. Which doesn't mean we can't beat them, but does reduce the odds. Especially given our recent history against top-quality opponents. Playing both on the road doesn't help. Hard for me to really think we win either at this point.

So, 8 or 9 wins, with a fair likelihood of 7 or 10. Gun to my head, I guess 9. Better to be the optimist.

In some ways, actually, more important to me is how we lose. Do we give USC a serious run? Or get rolled yet again? Can we slow down Oklahoma's offense? I'd rather we lose four dogfights to good teams than get blown out three times. Losses will determine how good we look and feel going into '13.

 

[Redbar]

I just have a feeling that we will see the most focused and disciplined Coach Kelly team we have seen in South Bend. I think they will be a bit more consistent without the peaks and valleys on the field and off. I think we will come to play very hard, and even if you don't see 9 or 10 wins you will begin to see the team have that mindset that Coach Kelly preaches about. I don't see us coming out flat in big games and I don't think we get blown out as long as we stay healthy particularly at DB.