Drowning Kiribati

[woolybug25]

Ran across this article and found it pretty interesting. On two notes, really; A) The realities of Climate Change and B) How to deal with these refugees. Sad story for these people as the industrial world is going to wipe them out.

Kirimati, AKA Christmas Island, is one of the 33 small islands which make up the world's lowest-lying nation, Kiribati.

The 103,000 citizens of Kiribati may soon become refugees, perhaps the first mass movement of people fleeing the consequences of global warming rather than war or famine.

Kiribati: Climate Change Destroys Pacific Island Nation - Businessweek

Here's another article focused on the refugees:

If the I-Kiribati (the term for Kiribati nationals) and other Pacific islanders are not refugees, the question remains, what are they—and what conventions can be put in place to protect them?

Climate Change Sinking Pacific Islands: Should U.S. Take Migrants In? | New Republic


Thoughts???

 

[GoldenToTheGrave]

I live on the south shore of Long Island. Much of my town is build on reclaimed marsh land, and a lot of places are flooding now even from a few days of rain. My house didn't flood in Sandy or Irene, but the areas closer to the water were devastated.

Things are going to get real bad here in my lifetime.

 

[connor_in]

I know many of you will call me a kook, flat-earth, deny-eralist but oh well...

Global-warming ‘proof’ is evaporating | New York Post

 

[scUM Hater]

Maybe someone from Dubai can help.

 

[DSully1995]

the cost outweigh the benefit in most climate change issues...

Bjorn Lomborg: Global priorities bigger than climate change | Video on TED.com

 

[Bluto]

I know many of you will call me a kook, flat-earth, deny-eralist but oh well...

Global-warming ‘proof’ is evaporating | New York Post

If the shoe fits...anyhow.

Closer to home based on topography and projected sea level rise New Oreleans and much of the State of Florida will be underwater sooner rather than later and if you think sea level rise is bad news read up on ocean acidification due to carbon deposition. As anyone who has ever owned a fish tank can tell you PH of the water is a big deal.

As to solutions, I doubt humans come up with anything considering how many resources are tied up in the energy economy as it presently exists. Frankly it seems pretty clear that humans are on a trajectory to overextend the carrying capacity of the planet for our species and we are going to decimate ourselves. That's typically what happens in ecosystems when one species becomes "too succesfull" and causes a radical disruption in the symbiotic nature of any ecosystem. Kind of a bummer considering our ability to think rationally is supposed to be one of the things that separates us from other species.

 

[BGIF]

The high ground in Kiribati used to about 400 feet higher and there was a lot more land before climate change started.

Of course back then one could walk from Holland to England, from Russia to Palin's house, and from Miami to Key West.

New York, Seattle, Chicago, and South Bend were all under ice ... hundreds of feet of ice.

Then all those hunter gather fires, and the rising levels of carbon dioxide expelled from a growing population of old, white men melted all that ice forcing Noah to build his ark. If he hadn't taken a bull and a cow there'd be a lot less CO2 produced daily, (Noah is a prime contributor to the problem).

Then the waters began to rise (even though it didn't rain for 40 days and 40 nights) and ... they are still rising.


Sorry Golden but you have two problems. Seas are rising (slowly) but the land under your town built on reclaimed marsh is subsiding. The seas may stop rising but the subsiding will continue as the area continues to add more surface loading while pumping more groundwater. Going to a solar powered hair dryer is going to resolve the problem of building in inappropriate places.

 

[woolybug25]

I know many of you will call me a kook, flat-earth, deny-eralist but oh well...

Global-warming ‘proof’ is evaporating | New York Post

To each their own, but simply putting one's head in the ground and ignoring it seems like a bad strategy to me.

People can debate "why" it is happening, but it is scientific fact that the world is warming and that warming (and melting polar caps) is raising seas levels. Little Kiribati is just the first place staring evacuation in the face. The reality is that 634 million people live in coastal areas that are only 10 meters above sea level. Two-thirds of the world's population lives within 100 kilometers of a coastline.

So there are real health and safety issues that we will need to figure out in our lifetimes. These people aren't just going to drown, they are going to evacuate.

 

[caligold]

Booked a trip to go surfing on one of its sister islands, roughly 2k miles west with a similar name. Saw a similar article 1 day later on Bloomberg. Nearly flipped my lid when I saw this thinking this disease ridden speck was where I was going. Thankfully not. That said my 2 cents:

1. In the article I read they have 3 different leaders of Christian faiths there telling them don't worry god will save you. Assuming climate change and sea levels stop rising, which faith's version of god gets credit?

2. Some level of responsibility lies on the rest of the world for this. The best way to explain this is via a metaphor. You throw a rock in a pond. You see the splash but fail to notice that waves propagate in all directions from the splash to the shore and affect things on the shore. Singularly as an individual your splash may not be enough to cause harm, but the collective splash of the global population, maybe.

Certainly an article to get one to abstractly think about how their movements in the world can have non-linear affects.

 

[woolybug25]

Booked a trip to go surfing on one of its sister islands, roughly 2k miles west with a similar name. Saw a similar article 1 day later on Bloomberg. Nearly flipped my lid when I saw this thinking this disease ridden speck was where I was going. Thankfully not. That said my 2 cents:

1. In the article I read they have 3 different leaders of Christian faiths there telling them don't worry god will save you. Assuming climate change and sea levels stop rising, which faith's version of god gets credit?

2. Some level of responsibility lies on the rest of the world for this. The best way to explain this is via a metaphor. You throw a rock in a pond. You see the splash but fail to notice that waves propagate in all directions from the splash to the shore and affect things on the shore. Singularly as an individual your splash may not be enough to cause harm, but the collective splash of the global population, maybe.

Certainly an article to get one to abstractly think about how their movements in the world can have non-linear affects.

Baller.

I tried to book a fly fishing trip to Christmas Island and ran into the same thing. It's becoming a pretty dangerous endeavor to travel to places like this.

 

[GoldenToTheGrave]

Sorry Golden but you have two problems. Seas are rising (slowly) but the land under your town built on reclaimed marsh is subsiding. The seas may stop rising but the subsiding will continue as the area continues to add more surface loading while pumping more groundwater. Going to a solar powered hair dryer is going to resolve the problem of building in inappropriate places.

I absolutely understand that most of the issues in my area are from building on land that probably should never have been built upon. Doesn't change the fact that NOAA shows a rising sea level that's accelerating. Fortunately my house was built on what was solid ground (potato farms in the 20s), while much of the rest of my town was built on marshes back in the 1970s.

If things really do get bad, waterfront property in my area will probably have to be abandon, and I think the Long Island Railroad grades will ultimately be turned into sea walls.

 

[caligold]

Baller.

I tried to book a fly fishing trip to Christmas Island and ran into the same thing. It's becoming a pretty dangerous endeavor to travel to places like this.

Nah, just lucky to know one. Better to be lucky than good. Yeah from my research the only real risk I run on Xmas Island is getting my chromosomes tweaked around by the years of nuclear bomb testing done out there. 1 flight a week = I hope I don't dysentery.

 

[connor_in]

To each their own, but simply putting one's head in the ground and ignoring it seems like a bad strategy to me.

People can debate "why" it is happening, but it is scientific fact that the world is warming and that warming (and melting polar caps) is raising seas levels. Little Kiribati is just the first place staring evacuation in the face. The reality is that 634 million people live in coastal areas that are only 10 meters above sea level. Two-thirds of the world's population lives within 100 kilometers of a coastline.

So there are real health and safety issues that we will need to figure out in our lifetimes. These people aren't just going to drown, they are going to evacuate.

from same article I posted ( Global-warming ‘proof’ is evaporating | New York Post )

somehow wasn’t front-page news that committed believers in man-made global warming recently admitted there’s been no surface global warming for well over a decade and maybe none for decades more. Nor did we see warmists conceding that their explanation is essentially a confession that the previous warming may not have been man-made at all.

That admission came in a new paper by prominent warmists in the peer-reviewed journal Climate Dynamics. They not only conceded that average global surface temperatures stopped warming a full 15 years ago, but that this “pause” could extend into the 2030s.

Also... came upon this today as well
Report: Scientists predict a century of global cooling | The Daily Caller

the warmists have been proved wrong time and again, each time reacting with little more than pictures of forlorn polar bears on ice floes and trying to shut down the opposition. (More bad timing: Arctic ice increased by almost a third this past year, while that at the South Pole was thicker and wider than it’s been in 35 years

Yeah yeah yeah...i know...burn the witch

Remember, just because a majority of scientists agree on something, doesn't mean they are correct...just ask Copernicus, Columbus, Yeager, etc.

 

[ACamp1900]

Now, there are definitely greater scientific minds on this board than I, but I do teach college level science courses at a local college every now and then and of course this topic gets brought up quite a bit… while researching for these discussions it astonishes me how much data there is going every which way but straight… and how much corruption there is in the field of ‘climate science’… especially with the IPCC

Anyway, the world may be heading down a road to ruin at the hands of man,… it very well may be… and it may not… but stating it’s a fact the world’s is still warming or the ocean depths are cooling and the caps are still melting is just not true across the board… at least for now (The data is obviously known to evolve and it can certainly shift back towards apocalyptic climate models soon, or further away)…

Some interesting stuff here... that doesn't debunk anything... but at least makes it clear nothing is established fact and we still have things to consider...

Terrifying Flat Global Temperature Crisis Threatens To Disrupt U.N. Climate Conference Agenda - Forbes

MIT Climate Scientist Dr. Richard Lindzen Rips UN IPCC Report: ‘The latest IPCC report has truly sunk to level of hilarious incoherence’ — ‘It is quite amazing to see the contortions the IPCC has to go through in order to keep

Climate scientists told to 'cover up' the fact that the Earth's temperature hasn't risen for the last 15 years | Mail Online

And now it's global COOLING! Return of Arctic ice cap as it grows by 29% in a year | Mail Online


Global Warming? Temperature Up 'Very Close to Zero' Over 15 Years | CNS News



... now back to these island nations and how to help.

 

[woolybug25]

I hear ya fellas, but I can go and find 100's of articles that say the opposite. There is far more data out there supporting climate change than not. You guys can claim that its all part of some liberal consiperacy, but that doesn't change the fact that water levels are rising. The fact that the folks in Kiribati are looking at evacuation is more evidence of that. If you look at every time lapse of any coast in the world, you will see that they are disapearing and doing so on an exceedingly fast pace.

That all being said, I don't really want to turn this thread into a political (because lets be real, this is a political view difference) debate.

Let me ask you guys this... do you deny that the ocean is rising? If not, do you also agree that if it continues at the pace it has been on the last 50 years, the world will have a serious issue with hundreds of millions of people being displaced?

 

[ACamp1900]

I hear ya fellas, but I can go and find 100's of articles that say the opposite. There is far more data out there supporting climate change than not. You guys can claim that its all part of some liberal consiperacy, but that doesn't change the fact that water levels are rising.

dafaq are you talking about??? anyway, I told myself to just leave it alone...

 

[woolybug25]

dafaq are you talking about??? and no, there isn't more data... that IS the data...anyway, I told myself to just leave it alone...

I must be missing something... I opened all of your links and they are all opinion articles. With the most credible being Forbes and the others being random outlets (especially the CSN News one that had some kind of bug with it. I suggest others don't open it, as I had to restart my cpu after).

The data i'm talking about is whatever "data" the opinion articles you guys posted used. There is an endless amount of research, data, etc on this topic.

But again... do you guys agree the oceans are rising? I don't care why, just do you agree with that?

Because the USGS does, and they have a bunch of "data" that they used to form that opinion.
USGS: Science Topics: sea-level change

 

[Irish Steeler]

Ran across this article and found it pretty interesting. On two notes, really; A) The realities of Climate Change and B) How to deal with these refugees. Sad story for these people as the industrial world is going to wipe them out.

Kiribati: Climate Change Destroys Pacific Island Nation - Businessweek

Here's another article focused on the refugees:


Climate Change Sinking Pacific Islands: Should U.S. Take Migrants In? | New Republic


Thoughts???

Complete myth! LOL!

 

[woolybug25]

Complete myth! LOL!

You obviously didn't read the article. I don't think there is much question that Kiribati is in real trouble. If you really think it's a myth, then go buy some land there. It's really cheap right now.

Also... Bloomberg is such a liberal rag...

 

[IrishinTN]

 

[connor_in]

I hear ya fellas, but (1) I can go and find 100's of articles that say the opposite. There is far more data out there supporting climate change than not. (2) You guys can claim that its all part of some liberal consiperacy, but (3a) that doesn't change the fact that water levels are rising. The fact that the folks in Kiribati are looking at evacuation is more evidence of that. If you look at every time lapse of any coast in the world, you will see that they are disapearing and doing so on an exceedingly fast pace.

That all being said, I don't really want to turn this thread into a political (because lets be real, this is a political view difference) debate.

Let me ask you guys this... (3b) do you deny that the ocean is rising? If not, do you also agree that if it continues at the pace it has been on the last 50 years, the world will have a serious issue with hundreds of millions of people being displaced?

1) You can find 100's of article that say global warming hasn't "paused" over the last 10-15 years? Even the biggest backers of AGW, the IPCC, seem to admit that it has "paused"

2) I did not claim it to be a liberal conspiracy.

3) Ocean levels...they may be rising, honestly I do not know for certain (not looked into this aspect for a while) and will believe you that they are. However, can you absolutely prove that AGW is the cause? If water levels are still rising but warming paused 10-15 yrs ago, and the ice at the poles is growing, how could AGW be the cause? Here is a question for you...if we sacrifice a virgin to a volcano, will that stop it? No. So, if we are wrong about the actual cause of what has occurred, then the steps we take to combat it may very well not change anything we want changed. Just because we came from behind when i changed my hat into a rally cap, I didn't put into effect the change that occurred.

Wooly...I like you man, and I am not trying to argue with you to be a DB. I just have serious concerns about doing things that may have other harmful effects which in the end don't do anything to stop what we want stopped. I once read about the national parks. When they were started, they wanted to preserve the natural ecosystem that existed. However, things as simple as no longer allowing hunting (animal population control) or clearing old growth led to serious consequences that nearly ruined the ecosystems they were trying to preserve. I am sorry if this view upsets you, but it is my $.02.

 

[irishog77]

I must be missing something... I opened all of your links and they are all opinion articles. With the most credible being Forbes and the others being random outlets (especially the CSN News one that had some kind of bug with it. I suggest others don't open it, as I had to restart my cpu after).

The data i'm talking about is whatever "data" the opinion articles you guys posted used. There is an endless amount of research, data, etc on this topic.

But again... do you guys agree the oceans are rising? I don't care why, just do you agree with that?

Because the USGS does, and they have a bunch of "data" that they used to form that opinion.
USGS: Science Topics: sea-level change

I don't. Not if polar ice caps are growing and global temps are cooling.

I think this, in a nutshell, is why I and many others have been and remain skeptical of all the environmentalists out there claiming "disaster."

Look, I'm a good steward and believe in recycling, reducing waste, using energy effective methods for power and fuel, etc. I think we ALL should act in this manner. The problem is how can ice caps be growing and sea levels be rising, concurrently? When for years we heard of the threats of "global warming," then when the "science" didn't add up, it became "client change," thus fitting into the "science," it can cause one to shake his head.

I brought this up a couple years ago. I know this may be a bit of an oversimplification, but here's why I take what "environmentalists" say with a grain of salt. Is it better for the environment to use a powered hand dryer or paper towels in a public restroom? One requires a factory and energy to produce, using manufactured parts to build, composed of parts that will never (essentially) decompose in the ground, and energy to power. The other requires a factory and energy to produce, uses manufactured parts to build, and a renewable resource (trees for paper) that also decomposes rapidly, but we're also told it's bad to cut trees down. I have heard from "enlightened" people on the matter...and the answer has always been along the lines "it's a complicated matter." If science is on your side, it shouldn't really ever be that complicated to answer. But yet here we are.

I think my question(s) for you, Wooly, is how are global temperatures lowering and ice caps growing, but ocean levels rising? And if this is the case, then isn't it possible that human beings' actions aren't to blame?

 

[GATTACA!]

To each their own, but simply putting one's head in the ground and ignoring it seems like a bad strategy to me.

People can debate "why" it is happening, but it is scientific fact that the world is warming and that warming (and melting polar caps) is raising seas levels. Little Kiribati is just the first place staring evacuation in the face. The reality is that 634 million people live in coastal areas that are only 10 meters above sea level. Two-thirds of the world's population lives within 100 kilometers of a coastline.

So there are real health and safety issues that we will need to figure out in our lifetimes. These people aren't just going to drown, they are going to evacuate.

The earth naturally goes through cycle of warming and cooling. I believe it was in the late 70s people where convinced that another ice age was coming it had gotten so cold. (I'll find the article later) The earth will continue to heat and cool regardless of our actions. To think the warming of a planet more than 4 billion years old is miopic IMO.

 

[IrishJayhawk]

The earth naturally goes through cycle of warming and cooling. I believe it was in the late 70s people where convinced that another ice age was coming it had gotten so cold. (I'll find the article later) The earth will continue to heat and cool regardless of our actions. To think the warming of a planet more than 4 billion years old is miopic IMO.

Scientists' data models take that all into account.

 

[woolybug25]

1) You can find 100's of article that say global warming hasn't "paused" over the last 10-15 years? Even the biggest backers of AGW, the IPCC, seem to admit that it has "paused"

2) I did not claim it to be a liberal conspiracy.

3) Ocean levels...they may be rising, honestly I do not know for certain (not looked into this aspect for a while) and will believe you that they are. However, can you absolutely prove that AGW is the cause? If water levels are still rising but warming paused 10-15 yrs ago, and the ice at the poles is growing, how could AGW be the cause? Here is a question for you...if we sacrifice a virgin to a volcano, will that stop it? No. So, if we are wrong about the actual cause of what has occurred, then the steps we take to combat it may very well not change anything we want changed. Just because we came from behind when i changed my hat into a rally cap, I didn't put into effect the change that occurred.

Wooly...I like you man, and I am not trying to argue with you to be a DB. I just have serious concerns about doing things that may have other harmful effects which in the end don't do anything to stop what we want stopped. I once read about the national parks. When they were started, they wanted to preserve the natural ecosystem that existed. However, things as simple as no longer allowing hunting (animal population control) or clearing old growth led to serious consequences that nearly ruined the ecosystems they were trying to preserve. I am sorry if this view upsets you, but it is my $.02.

Whoa... let's back up here... I never said that you offended me or pissed me off. The opposite in fact. I was just saying that I didn't want to debate why the oceans are rising, but rather have a conversation on what we are going to do to adapt to them. That's all.

I think my question(s) for you, Wooly, is how are global temperatures lowering and ice caps growing, but ocean levels rising? And if this is the case, then isn't it possible that human beings' actions aren't to blame?

If you look at some of the data out there, in particularly the USGS studies, they show that ocean levels are indeed rising and on a steadily increasing pace. Ice caps grow and shrink over time, no doubt, but the growth is not growing at a faster pace to keep up with the faster pace of melt (again, just my opinion based of scientific study). Most of any increases you are seeing is going on in the last 10 years. So they are trying to use the freezing part of the cycle to proved that it's growing. That's like judging whether a year was cooler by only measuring in winter and ignoring summer.

Again... don't kill the messenger. Talk to the USGS.

The earth naturally goes through cycle of warming and cooling. I believe it was in the late 70s people where convinced that another ice age was coming it had gotten so cold. (I'll find the article later) The earth will continue to heat and cool regardless of our actions. To think the warming of a planet more than 4 billion years old is miopic IMO.

Again... is the ocean rising? Is it going to stop anytime soon? If it isn't then we need to have real conversations about what to do with all of the displaced people. That's all i'm saying, not sure why no one is willing to take their political scope out of the situation. If you don't believe that its rising to a point that is dangerous, then tell that to any of the millions of people living near the deteriating coast lines. Again.. if you are that positive... then go buy land in Kiribati. It would be a no brain investment. You can get hundreds of acres of beautiful beachfront for nothing.

 

[IrishJayhawk]

Remember, just because a majority of scientists agree on something, doesn't mean they are correct...just ask Copernicus, Columbus, Yeager, etc.

Copernicus was an early scientist who was fighting non-scientific Church beliefs about the earth being the center of the universe. I don't think this is the example you want...

 

[IrishJayhawk]

If you look at some of the data out there, in particularly the USGS studies, they show that ocean levels are indeed rising and on a steadily increasing pace. Ice caps grow and shrink over time, no doubt, but the growth is not growing at a faster pace to keep up with the faster pace of melt (again, just my opinion based of scientific study). Most of any increases you are seeing is going on in the last 10 years. So they are trying to use the freezing part of the cycle to proved that it's growing. That's like judging whether a year was cooler by only measuring in winter and ignoring summer.

Again... don't kill the messenger. Talk to the USGS.

Exactly. The macro trend remains true. It's very rare that trend lines end up going in one direction without some jagged moments.

 

[irishog77]

Again... is the ocean rising? Is it going to stop anytime soon? If it isn't then we need to have real conversations about what to do with all of the displaced people. That's all i'm saying, not sure why no one is willing to take their political scope out of the situation. If you don't believe that its rising to a point that is dangerous, then tell that to any of the millions of people living near the deteriating coast lines. Again.. if you are that positive... then go buy land in Kiribati. It would be a no brain investment. You can get hundreds of acres of beautiful beachfront for nothing.

C'mon, man! I can also buy a house and lot in Detroit for the amount of money I find in my couch cushions...but I'm still not going to purchase it. Our lack of enthusiasm to buy real estate on this island, halfway around the world, is not evidence of our belief that we don't feel strongly enough on ocean levels rising.

 

[connor_in]

Whoa... let's back up here... I never said that you offended me or pissed me off. The opposite in fact. I was just saying that I didn't want to debate why the oceans are rising, but rather have a conversation on what we are going to do to adapt to them. That's all.



If you look at some of the data out there, in particularly the USGS studies, they show that ocean levels are indeed rising and on a steadily increasing pace. Ice caps grow and shrink over time, no doubt, but the growth is not growing at a faster pace to keep up with the faster pace of melt (again, just my opinion based of scientific study). Most of any increases you are seeing is going on in the last 10 years. So they are trying to use the freezing part of the cycle to proved that it's growing. That's like judging whether a year was cooler by only measuring in winter and ignoring summer.

Again... don't kill the messenger. Talk to the USGS.



Again... is the ocean rising? Is it going to stop anytime soon? If it isn't then we need to have real conversations about what to do with all of the displaced people. That's all i'm saying, not sure why no one is willing to take their political scope out of the situation. If you don't believe that its rising to a point that is dangerous, then tell that to any of the millions of people living near the deteriating coast lines. Again.. if you are that positive... then go buy land in Kiribati. It would be a no brain investment. You can get hundreds of acres of beautiful beachfront for nothing.

Glad to hear that I am not making you angry, as I said, I enjoy your posts and am not looking for a pissing match

As for the bolded part, unless you determine the cause correctly and attack that, then you can only attack the symptoms. Thus you would be looking at adaptation techniques such as moving (evacuation), dikes (hello, Netherlands), or harvesting earth from elsewhere (potentialy nearby sea bottom) and adding it to the areas being affected (see pics above of Dubai)

 

[woolybug25]

C'mon, man! I can also buy a house and lot in Detroit for the amount of money I find in my couch cushions...but I'm still not going to purchase it. Our lack of enthusiasm to buy real estate on this island, halfway around the world, is not evidence of our belief that we don't feel strongly enough on ocean levels rising.

It's a joke, but one that actually has some validity to it. I mean, Christmas Island is a tourist destination. Right now, the property value is practically nothing, despite it being an expensive place to visit. If someone is that absolutely positive that the President of Kiribati, their people, the science community, etc are all wrong... then you should buy it up and make millions once it rebounds to it's recent value.

Detroit is a bad comparison. First of all, while cheap, Detroit property is far more expensive than Kiribati. Furthermore, it is distressed because of economic conditions not environmental conditions. Most of the distressed Detroit property has been distressed for decades, it's just at an all time low. If Detroit bounced back, you would still have property in the ghetto. If Kiribati bounced back, you would have beachfront property in the pacific. Two very different scenarios.