Democratic Primary Thread (Updated Poll #2)

[Irish YJ]

Not sure if anyone watched the debate last night, but Yang crushed it. Media still trying to not give him a fair shot, and it may be too little too late.

Biden also had his best debate yet, and Pete was solid.

Bernie and Warren look like they're running out of gas.

I watched a tiny bit, and watched a few "reviews". Agree on Yang and Biden, but would add Klobucher in the "good" categories.

Everyone else I thought were losers.

Didn't see anyone really going after each other except a little picking on Mayor Pete. But like I said, only watched a few bits while I was doing other stuff.

One of Bernie/Warren need to drop if the other is going to have any success. It probably needs to be Bernie dropping. Not that I think Warren as a good chance, but she's probably got a better chance than Bernie. I think he's got only got one answer to every single question. Consolidating their support would at least give one a nice uptick.

Last note... the Dems acting like the Economy is in a scary place was legit idiocy.

 

[no.1IrishFan]

Not sure if anyone watched the debate last night, but Yang crushed it. Media still trying to not give him a fair shot, and it may be too little too late.

Biden also had his best debate yet, and Pete was solid.

Bernie and Warren look like they're running out of gas.

My wife and I also thought Yang crushed it. I’d like to hear more about his foreign policy positions. When talking economics, he appears to be 3 steps ahead of everyone else, regardless of how people feel about the freedom dividend.

 

[Rogue219]

Klobuchar questioning Sneaky Pete's electability was a damn fun moment.

Warren still think Bernie is her friend. Bernie is no one's friend. If he were an ice cream flavor, he'd be pralines and dick.

 

[BGIF]

Bloomberg Trying To Create More Jobs Than Trump

Bloomberg Trying To Create More Jobs Than Trump

It only smells like peonage. Bloomie's financial manager was SHOCKED to learn the prisoner's weren't being paid $15 like Bernie's all of workers are.


I'll bet Bloomie was really trying to close the wage differential between men and women since most of the executive offices are filled by men and most of the prison cells are filled ... by men. Men that serve up to 60% longer sentences than women for the same crime.

Of course sentence discrimination for men isn't a wedge issue. How about equal pay for equal work and equal sentences for equal crimes?


DECEMBER 24, 2019 / 2:18 PM / UPDATED 8 HOURS AGO
Michael Bloomberg says his White House campaign unknowingly used prison labor

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Billionaire U.S. presidential candidate Michael Bloomberg on Tuesday said his campaign had unknowingly used prison workers to make telephone calls on his behalf.

Bloomberg, who last month entered the Democratic Party race to face Republican President Donald Trump in the November 2020 election, said the campaign had ended its relationship with a company that used prison labor for making phone calls.

“We do not support this practice and we are making sure our vendors more properly vet their subcontractors moving forward,” Bloomberg said in a statement.

Bloomberg said the campaign learned of the ties to prison labor when a reporter called. The Intercept, a news website, was first to report the use of prison labor.

Ranked by Forbes as the eighth-richest American, Bloomberg has spent more on campaign ads in the last few weeks than his main Democratic rivals have all year.

He has so far failed to crack into the top tier of candidates in public opinion polls.

A Reuters/Ipsos opinion poll conducted on Dec. 18-19 showed about 5% of Democratic-leaning voters support the billionaire former mayor of New York. Recent polls show former Vice President Joe Biden, Senator Bernie Sanders and Senator Elizabeth Warren are the party’s leading candidates.

 

[IrishLax]

Final refresh coming after the January debate. Will be VERY interesting to see what happens if/when Pete wins Iowa and Bernie wins New Hampshire.

Dark horse candidate: Baby Yoda.

 

[ulukinatme]

Final refresh coming after the January debate. Will be VERY interesting to see what happens if/when Pete wins Iowa and Bernie wins New Hampshire.

Dark horse candidate: Baby Yoda.

If Baby Yoda was a candidate, he'd win right now. His popularity is through the roof.

 

[BGIF]

JANUARY 2, 2020 / 8:29 AM / UPDATED 12 HOURS AGO
Castro drops out of 2020 U.S. presidential race
Doina Chiacu

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Julian Castro, the grandson of a Mexican immigrant who became San Antonio mayor and a U.S. housing secretary, suspended his 2020 Democratic presidential run on Thursday after a candidacy overshadowed by more famous liberals.

The charisma and assertiveness that helped make Castro, 45, a rising star in the Democratic Party did not translate into enough support to compete against better-known candidates, including progressive U.S. Senators Bernie Sanders of Vermont and Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts.

He had struggled to raise money for what was seen as a long-shot bid, and another Texan who was seeking the party’s nomination before dropping out in November, former U.S. Representative Beto O’Rourke, siphoned some attention from Castro in the early days of his campaign.

“It’s with profound gratitude to all of our supporters that I suspend my campaign for president today,” Castro wrote in a Twitter post.

“But with only a month until the Iowa caucuses, and given the circumstances of this campaign season, I have determined that it simply isn’t our time,” Castro said in a video released by his campaign.

Castro championed immigrant rights and was a strong critic of Trump and his policies.

He did not flinch from criticizing his fellow Democrats either, notably going after former U.S. Vice President Joe Biden, the early front-runner among Democrats, during a Sept. 12 debate.

However, other Democratic candidates posted gracious messages for Castro on Twitter after he announced his withdrawal from the race. Among them, Biden said Castro had led his campaign with “grace and heart,” while Sanders praised him for his “fight for a humane immigration system” and Warren thanked him for being a “powerful voice.”

Castro’s departure could intensify criticism that, for a party that prides itself on its diversity, most of the top Democratic candidates are white. Asian-American Andrew Yang was the only minority candidate to appear beside six others in the most recent debate on Dec. 19.

The race for the party’s presidential nomination remains up for grabs just weeks before the first votes are cast in Iowa on Feb. 3, with the New Hampshire primary to follow on Feb. 11.

There is a three-way battle at the top of national opinion polls among Biden, Sanders and Warren, and South Bend, Indiana’s former mayor, Pete Buttigieg, has risen to lead some polls in early voting states.

 

[BGIF]

Marianne Williamson lays off entire campaign staff
BY ED O'KEEFE
UPDATED ON: JANUARY 2, 2020 / 10:44 PM / CBS NEWS

Democratic presidential candidate Marianne Williamson has laid off her entire campaign staff, her former New Hampshire state director Paul Hodes confirmed to CBS News. But Williamson is not expected to completely exit the race — at least, not yet.

"To the contrary," Hodes said in a telephone interview. "My understanding is that she plans to continue."

Williamson issued a statement confirming she was still campaigning, stating that she "cannot afford a traditional campaign." "*I am not suspending my candidacy, however; a campaign not having a huge war chest should not be what determines its fate," Williamson said:

"As long as I feel a connection with voters that gets to the heart of things, bringing forth the conversation that would win the 2020 election and help transform this country, I will remain in the race."

Williamson appeared at the first Democratic presidential debates over the summer, but failed to meet the fundraising and polling thresholds to appear at later exchanges. She has not qualified for the January 14 debate in Iowa.

Williamson is an author who has dismissed characterizations of her as a "spiritual guru," telling Major Garrett on "The Takeout" podcast earlier this year that referring to her in this way is "dismissive" and makes her seem "like I'm a less intelligent thinker, a little woo-woo." Instead, she argued that her emphasis on spirituality is what made her a strong and viable presidential candidate. Williamson, who made some of her personal income off spiritual renewal and self-help books, has made a mark in the crowded Democratic field with her unique phrasing and messaging.

News of the Williamson campaign layoffs come the same day other Democratic contenders announce their fundraising figures from the fourth quarter of 2019, and as former Housing and Urban Development Secretary Julian Castro announced he's dropping out of the race.

Williamson ran a campaign that largely declined to criticize her Democratic opponents, instead highlighting the need for unity and kindness.

 

[drayer54]

Pretty atypical behavior for an energy exec. I'd like to see where the money went.


Hunter Biden linked to 2016 identity theft involving deceased brother

The court papers were filed Monday in an Arkansas court as part of a paternity battle over a child the Hunter Biden shares with Lunden Roberts, who met the scandal-plagued businessman at a Washington, D.C., strip club where she worked. While the question of whether or not Biden is a father is no longer an issue — a DNA test confirmed he is the baby's father — the parents are at odds over issues such as child support.

The court papers, which cite a Prescott, Ariz., police report, describe what allegedly happened on the morning of Oct. 28, 2016, when a Hertz rental car employee reportedly received a phone call around 10 a.m. and subsequently discovered "suspicious" items inside one of the rental cars.

“Stolen identities were used to check defendant Robert Hunter Biden into an Arizona facility and providing false statements to the Prescott Police Department,” the document states. “These stolen identities include his deceased brother Joseph R. Beau Biden III, and Joseph McGee.”

An attorney for Biden, whose full name is Robert Hunter Biden, did not immediately respond to FOX Business’ request for comment. His brother, who went by Beau Biden, died in 2015.

https://www.foxbusiness.com/lifesty...dentity-theft-case-involving-deceased-brother

 

[Irish YJ]

Pretty atypical behavior for an energy exec. I'd like to see where the money went.


Hunter Biden linked to 2016 identity theft involving deceased brother


https://www.foxbusiness.com/lifesty...dentity-theft-case-involving-deceased-brother

The Bidens be like

 

[drayer54]

I can't imagine being a deadbeat dad who fathered a child with a stripper while dating a dead brothers widow and during the paternity case having embarrassing identity theft headlines distracting from corruption headlines during a parents POTUS campaign. He'll probably be back on cocaine soon anyways since his odds of being an energy exec in Iran just diminished dramatically.

 

[Irish YJ]

I can't imagine being a deadbeat dad who fathered a child with a stripper while dating a dead brothers widow and during the paternity case having embarrassing identity theft headlines distracting from corruption headlines during a parents POTUS campaign. He'll probably be back on cocaine soon anyways since his odds of being an energy exec in Iran just diminished dramatically.

 

[Irish#1]

Pretty atypical behavior for an energy exec. I'd like to see where the money went.


Hunter Biden linked to 2016 identity theft involving deceased brother





https://www.foxbusiness.com/lifesty...dentity-theft-case-involving-deceased-brother

The Bidens be like

Why do I have a feeling there's more to come?

 

[Irish#1]

I can't imagine being a deadbeat dad who fathered a child with a stripper while dating a dead brothers widow and during the paternity case having embarrassing identity theft headlines distracting from corruption headlines during a parents POTUS campaign. He'll probably be back on cocaine soon anyways since his odds of being an energy exec in Iran just diminished dramatically.

You've got this all wrong. What a noble guy to provide comfort to his dead brother's wife in a time of stress. As far as the stripper, he just offering her some comfort as well. You'd be under a lot of stress if everyday that you went to work, guys were making suggestive comments, copping a quick touch like it was nothing. Most of these girls are decent girls just trying to pay for their college tuition.

Cocaine is just a way for him to unwind. Can you imagine the stress he is under, trying to comfort so many women? He's probably burning the candle at both ends. Have some compassion.

 

[BGIF]

Scratch Booker

Scratch Booker

Cory Booker Ends 2020 Presidential Campaign After Failing to Qualify for Tuesday’s Democratic Debate
POSTED 8:05 AM, JANUARY 13, 2020, BY CNN WIRE, UPDATED AT 08:15AM, JANUARY 13, 2020

Sen. Cory Booker announced Monday that he will end his campaign after failing to qualify for the Democratic debate planned for Tuesday in Iowa.

“It was a difficult decision to make, but I got in this race to win, and I’ve always said I wouldn’t continue if there was no longer a path to victory,” Booker said in an email to supporters Monday.

The New Jersey Democrat’s announcement came a day before six presidential candidates will participate in the CNN/Des Moines Register’s debate in Des Moines, Iowa. He did not qualify for the event. It also came as the Senate gears up for the impeachment trial of President Donald Trump.

“Our campaign has reached the point where we need more money to scale up and continue building a campaign that can win — money we don’t have, and money that is harder to raise because I won’t be on the next debate stage and because the urgent business of impeachment will rightly be keeping me in Washington,” Booker wrote.

His announcement marks another departure of a high-profile black candidate from the 2020 race. After not making the December debate, Booker criticized the rules that kept him from qualifying for the event and was outspoken about the growing lack of diversity on stage.

The New Jersey Democrat ran for president aiming to restore a sense of community and mend the moral fabric of America.

Booker launched his candidacy in February 2019 with a message he would remain faithful to throughout his campaign, calling on Americans who are feeling “a common pain” to come together in “common purpose” for greater justice and systemic change.

Booker pressed for reforming the nation’s gun laws, including establishing a national gun license program. He advocated expansive criminal justice reform, including legalizing marijuana and expunging records of those already convicted for marijuana-related crimes. And Booker frequently shone a light on policy blindspots concerning marginalized communities, citing his own low-income, minority-majority neighborhood in Newark.

But unlike some of his rivals, Booker focused less on policy than on the “spiritual” side of the presidency. He viewed the White House as a moral post from which to inspire and guide a dispirited nation.

Even as his campaign failed to pick up steam, Booker rejected pivoting from that message or overhauling his strategy. Instead, he continued to preach the need for “radical love” — resisting the political incentive structure, in the age of Trump, that rewards channeling the anger of some Democratic activists.

At times, Booker’s stump speech could assume the quality of a TED Talk or a sermon, moving members of the audience to tears and converting many to supporters. But ultimately that small-scale passion did not translate into broader support for Booker, who polled in the low single digits for much of his campaign.

His advisers maintained that, if only Booker could introduce himself to more voters, he stood a chance of becoming more competitive. But a few factors prevented the sort of breakout moment that many political prognosticators believed would come for Booker, but never did.

Throughout 2019, Booker’s fundraising paled in comparison to that of the top-tier Democratic candidates, limiting his capacity to expand his campaign team and advertise on television. In December, Booker failed to qualify for the debate stage, in part because his campaign did not have enough money to boost his polling.

Booker could also be difficult to define as a candidate. Although he aimed for a middle-road between the party’s most progressive candidates and its moderate entrants, Booker might have landed in a political no-man’s-land, without a clear ideological brand to attract undecided voters.

Booker’s background as a former mayor and Rhodes Scholar did not receive the same attention as those of others, like Pete Buttigieg, another Rhodes Scholar and now-former mayor of South Bend, Ind., who became an object of the public’s and media’s fascination.

Booker also was not eager to highlight contrasts with his rivals, even as other candidates benefited from such attacks.

One exception was when Booker, over the summer, took on former Vice President Joe Biden for using the term “boy” in a manner demeaning to African Americans. When Biden suggested Booker should be the one to apologize, Booker did not back down.

“I was raised to speak truth to power and that I shall never apologize for doing that,” Booker told CNN’s Don Lemon at the time. “And Vice President Biden shouldn’t need this lesson.”

Booker was consistently lauded for his debate performances, when he often commanded the stage. But those were ultimately not enough to boost his profile in the crowded 2020 primary.

When Booker failed to meet the polling requirements for the December Democratic debate, he acknowledged it was a setback for his campaign, but vowed to keep pushing on, citing his strong organization in Iowa and other early states.

But his path to an upset was further complicated by the looming impeachment trial in the Senate, which would have pulled him off the campaign trail.

In his announcement to supporters, Booker said he would do “everything in my power to elect the eventual Democratic nominee for president, whomever that may be, and to elect great Democrats to the Senate and up and down the ballot.”

 

[Irish#1]

Cory Booker Ends 2020 Presidential Campaign After Failing to Qualify for Tuesday’s Democratic Debate
POSTED 8:05 AM, JANUARY 13, 2020, BY CNN WIRE, UPDATED AT 08:15AM, JANUARY 13, 2020

Whenever they announce another candidate has dropped out, I keep hearing the Jeopardy theme playing for the next one.

 

[IrishLax]

Weird debate, not sure if anyone watched. The tiff between Bernie and Warren will be interesting to follow. Warren showing her true colors and a liar and opportunist.

Does Bloomberg steal a bunch of Biden votes? If not he has to have the inside track at this point. Bernie -- surging in polls -- had his feet held to fire on socialist positions, and it didn't seem to play well.

 

[BGIF]

OBJECTION! Asked and Answered

OBJECTION! Asked and Answered

Weird debate, not sure if anyone watched. The tiff between Bernie and Warren will be interesting to follow. Warren showing her true colors and a liar and opportunist.

...

I thought Abby Phillip's follow question to Warren after Sanders denied Warren's allegation about a women being able to win the 2020 election was right out of Debbie Wasserman Schultz's biased playbook.

"Senator Warren, what did you think when Senator Sanders told you a woman could not win the election?"

This was immediately after Phillip queried Sanders, "I do want to be clear here. You're saying you never told Senator Warren that a woman could not win the election?"

Sanders had just replied,"That is correct,"

Asked and answered.

 

[IrishLax]

Democratic Primary Thread (Updated Poll #2)

Updated following January debate. Who, if anyone, do you plan to vote for in the upcoming primaries?

EDIT: huh, I wonder why that didn't work.

 

[BleedBlueGold]

Weird debate, not sure if anyone watched. The tiff between Bernie and Warren will be interesting to follow. Warren showing her true colors and a liar and opportunist.

Does Bloomberg steal a bunch of Biden votes? If not he has to have the inside track at this point. Bernie -- surging in polls -- had his feet held to fire on socialist positions, and it didn't seem to play well.

Can you elaborate or post a video link? I didn't watch the debate.

Updated following January debate. Who, if anyone, do you plan to vote for in the upcoming primaries?

EDIT: huh, I wonder why that didn't work.

Indiana votes late, so depends on who is on the ticket. I'm still Yang Gang and Tulsi (even though, recently, I disagree with both of them on Iran) so I'm hoping I can push the button for one of them.

 

[Whiskeyjack]

The absence of Yang and Gabbard last night was sorely felt.

Also, this WaPo quiz on which Democratic candidate you most agree with was clarifying. Lockstep radicalism on social issues and nothing on foreign policy, only disagreeing on economic and regulatory policy.

 

[Whiskeyjack]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Tucker Carlson calling Bernie Sanders the “most credible change candidate” in the Democratic primary last night made me remember the Morning Consult poll in May that found Fox News viewers are more likely to support him than CNN viewers, MSNBC viewers, NYT readers, etc. <a href="https://t.co/kozFWUxE8N">pic.twitter.com/kozFWUxE8N</a></p>— Holly Otterbein (@hollyotterbein) <a href="https://twitter.com/hollyotterbein/status/1217145679698513920?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 14, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

 

[ACamp1900]

change candidate???

 

[IrishLax]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Tucker Carlson calling Bernie Sanders the “most credible change candidate” in the Democratic primary last night made me remember the Morning Consult poll in May that found Fox News viewers are more likely to support him than CNN viewers, MSNBC viewers, NYT readers, etc. <a href="https://t.co/kozFWUxE8N">pic.twitter.com/kozFWUxE8N</a></p>— Holly Otterbein (@hollyotterbein) <a href="https://twitter.com/hollyotterbein/status/1217145679698513920?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 14, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

This is fascinating. It reinforces that Warren is a total phony that has no appeal to people that aren't dogmatic progressives. She's a proven liar and charlatan.

Bernie has his own hypocrisies, but no one can claim that he isn't "authentic" on some levels and trying to speak to real problems.

 

[ulukinatme]

The absence of Yang and Gabbard last night was sorely felt.

Also, this WaPo quiz on which Democratic candidate you most agree with was clarifying. Lockstep radicalism on social issues and nothing on foreign policy, only disagreeing on economic and regulatory policy.

Yup, got Gabbard, Yang was 2 behind her. Lowest scores with Steyr, Bernie, and Warren. If the Democrats want the moderates and a shot at beating Trump, they'd clamor more for the first two.

 

[ulukinatme]

 

[BleedBlueGold]

Shocker, I got Yang and Gabbard. No matches on a few questions though.

 

[BGIF]

"Bernie is my friend" but I'll sucker punch him with an open mike.

"Bernie is my friend" but I'll sucker punch him with an open mike.

Audio Reveals Warren, Sanders Trading Barbs After Iowa Debate
‘I think you called me a liar on national TV,’ the Massachusetts senator said

By Eliza Collins WSJ Jan. 15, 2020 10:32 pm ET

https://www.wsj.com/articles/audio-reveals-warren-sanders-trading-barbs-after-iowa-debate-11579145528

Audio of the tense postdebate exchange between Sen. Bernie Sanders and Sen. Elizabeth Warren made public Wednesday night revealed continued raw feelings over purported comments by Mr. Sanders.

The progressive presidential candidates’ dispute centers on a 2018 meeting between the two longtime allies. Ahead of Tuesday night’s Democratic debate in Iowa, Ms. Warren said Mr. Sanders told her in that meeting that a woman couldn’t win the presidency. Mr. Sanders had denied he said that, and he denied it again during the debate.

“Well as a matter of fact, I didn’t say it,” the Vermont senator said when asked about controversy by moderators. He added: “It’s incomprehensible I would think that a woman cannot be president of the United States.”

Ms. Warren, when asked during the debate about the alleged remarks, responded: “Bernie is my friend and I’m not here to fight with Bernie,” and played up the electoral prospects of women in 2020.

But at the close of the debate, the Massachusetts senator and Mr. Sanders appeared to be engaged in a tense exchange, but what they said wasn’t revealed until Wednesday night.

“I think you called me a liar on national TV,” Ms. Warren said, according to audio released by CNN.

“What?” Mr. Sanders responded.

“I think you called me a liar on national TV,” she repeated.

“You know, let’s not do it right now. If you want to have that discussion, we’ll have that discussion,” Mr. Sanders said.

Ms. Warren responded: “Anytime.”

“You called me a liar,” Mr. Sanders said. “You told me—all right, let’s not do it now,” he said before walking away.

Businessman Tom Steyer was standing between them during the exchange. As Mr. Sanders walked away, Mr. Steyer went to talk to him and said: “I don’t want to get in the middle of it. I just want to say hi, Bernie.”

“Yeah, good, OK,” Mr. Sanders responded.

 

[BGIF]

The absence of Yang and Gabbard last night was sorely felt.

Also, this WaPo quiz on which Democratic candidate you most agree with was clarifying. Lockstep radicalism on social issues and nothing on foreign policy, only disagreeing on economic and regulatory policy.

I'm an Independent. Interestingly, when I printed out the quiz results ionly 7 of the 9 candidates appeared. Sanders and Warren were truncated. I closed out the window after printing when I reopened under my history my answers were gone. I think I did have a couple with them, 2 or 3.

Bloomberg 10
Biden 8
Yang 8
Buttigieg 6
Klobuchar 6
Gabbard 6
Steyer 6
Sanders ??
Warren ??

Last spring I though Biden was the Dems only hope to beat Trump. I though the others too radical or too unknown. I was surprised to see in the Otterbein tweet that Sanders did so well with Independents. Trump needs to pick up Indies if he's going to get re-elected. Otterbein's referenced poll is old, last May. I don't recall Biden ever polling that high but doubt he's declining performances will keep him as the front runner as the debates and primaries continue.

 

[BGIF]

JANUARY 16, 2020 / 5:12 AM / UPDATED AN HOUR AGO
Investors see smoother path for U.S. stocks as Warren's election odds slip
April Joyner

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Traders are less worried about political uncertainty in the run-up to the U.S. presidential election, with former Vice President Joe Biden remaining strong in the polls while Senator Elizabeth Warren has lost ground.

Implied volatility, which measures expectations for outsized equity price moves, has fallen significantly in the past few months for healthcare, financials and energy - sectors considered at risk of disruption or increased regulation under a Democratic president.

The decline in expectations for volatility tracks the poll numbers for Warren, who is considered to be among the most left-leaning Democratic candidates. Warren’s standing peaked in October, according to Reuters/Ipsos polling, and has trailed off since then.

“We were seeing a lot more volatility in September, October, November, when the odds of Elizabeth Warren getting elected were higher,” said Chris Murphy, co-head of derivative strategy at Susquehanna Financial Group. “Joe Biden seems to be the market’s safe candidate.”

Even a boost for Senator Bernie Sanders, another progressive candidate, has had little effect on implied volatility as Biden, seen as a moderate, has maintained a position at or near the lead in several polls.

GRAPHIC - Warren drops, volatility sinks:

GRAPHICS AT THE LINK:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-stock-options/investors-see-smoother-path-for-u-s-stocks-as-warrens-election-odds-slip-idUSKBN1ZF17Y

For instance, 30-day implied volatility for the Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLV.P) has dropped to 12.2% as of Wednesday morning, from 18.9% in early October, according to data from options analytics firm Trade Alert.

“So much of the Iowa anxiety was coming at a time when Warren was trending higher,” said Michael Purves, founder of Tallbacken Capital Advisors in New York, in reference to the Iowa caucuses, the first presidential nominating contest, on Feb. 3. “That anxiety has dissipated.”

Jitters related to the Democratic presidential primaries have not entirely disappeared. CBOE Volatility Index .VIX futures expiring in late February show a bump in expectations for volatility. The futures reflect the outlook for the month-long period following that date, which encompasses Super Tuesday on March 3, when several key states, including California and Texas, hold primaries.

Still, “I would expect us to be seeing a lot more Super Tuesday positioning if there was some,” Murphy said.

GRAPHIC - Positioning for U.S. election volatility:

Reuters Graphic
Options markets may reflect greater anticipation of risk around the U.S. presidential election in November.


Both VIX futures and the benchmark S&P 500 U.S. stock index .SPX show a significant bump in implied volatility near the Nov. 3 vote, compared to either the preceding or following periods.

“Traders have already started pricing in a hefty election risk premium” around November, wrote Mandy Xu, equity derivatives strategist at Credit Suisse in New York, in a research note on Monday.