Democratic Primary Thread (Updated Poll #2)

[Polish Leppy 22]

Anyone have a clue what Creepy Uncle Joe said over the weekend or why he said it? Long hairs on his legs and loves kids jumping on his lap?

 

[Irish YJ]

Anyone have a clue what Creepy Uncle Joe said over the weekend or why he said it? Long hairs on his legs and loves kids jumping on his lap?

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/...any-grossed-out-with-story-about-his-leg-hair

During the campaign speech, Biden, 77, described how children used to play with his blond leg hairs in the swimming pool while telling a story about his time working as a lifeguard.

“By the way, you know, I sit on the stand and it’d get hot. I got a lot of — I got hairy legs that turn blonde in the sun,” Biden said. “And the kids used to come up and reach in the pool and rub my leg down so it was straight and then watch the hair come back up again.”

He concluded his tale by saying, “I love kids jumping on my lap.”

 

[Polish Leppy 22]

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/...any-grossed-out-with-story-about-his-leg-hair

Terrifying and disturbing

 

[Irish#1]

It just keeps getting better.

also mocked for nibbling his wife’s finger during a campaign speech in Iowa on Saturday.

 

[BleedBlueGold]

Down goes Kamala!! Buh Bye!

 

[BleedBlueGold]

It just keeps getting better.

Eh, the video of this wasn't as bad as it seems in print. His wife was wildly hand-talking and almost hit him in the face. He playfully bit back at her hand. Nothingburger.

 

[IrishLax]

Eh, the video of this wasn't as bad as it seems in print. His wife was wildly hand-talking and almost hit him in the face. He playfully bit back at her hand. Nothingburger.

More people need to get a clue and do the same. Only the following candidates should even be allowed on the debate stage at this point unless polling numbers change:

-Biden
-Sanders
-Warren
-Buttigieg
-Yang

The second tier of people polling around 2-3% that *could* make an argument for inclusion are:

-Bloomberg
-Klobuchar
-Booker

After that, they need to go away. All the riff-raff is polling at a combined 7% which is not insignificant.

 

[BleedBlueGold]

I'd add Gabbard to that second tier. Probably put Yang in that second tier as well instead of the first. Fine with everyone else dropping out. Curious where Kamala's support goes. Split between Warren/Biden/Pete?

Tulsi made a comment on Rogan's podcast the other day about Pete essentially buying 4% polling points through $9million in social media advertising. Is that true?* I don't think she was suggesting anything shady. From the sound of it, she was just speaking on how current polls are mostly based on name recognition, and less about actual support, and Pete spending millions in ads correlates to his bump, ie. more ads = greater name recognition, but doesn't necessarily equal support. Not to put words in her mouth, that's just my evaluation of what she said.

*Is it true in that him spending $9M on ads corresponded with a bump in the polls?

 

[Polish Leppy 22]

I'm gonna miss Kamala calling Democrat primary voters racist because they weren't ready for a black woman to be the candidate.

 

[Irish YJ]

I'm gonna miss Kamala calling Democrat primary voters racist because they weren't ready for a black woman to be the candidate.

I think both parties are ready, just not for her as the one.

 

[NorthDakota]

Kamala is a disaster. Just bad all around lmao.

 

[BGIF]

Down goes Kamala!! Buh Bye!

HEY! It's not her fault. "Only billionaires have a shot" and she wasn't born into privilege like the rest of us.

She has a net worth of only $6 million, poor baby.

 

[BGIF]

More people need to get a clue and do the same. Only the following candidates should even be allowed on the debate stage at this point unless polling numbers change:

-Biden
-Sanders
-Warren
-Buttigieg
-Yang

The second tier of people polling around 2-3% that *could* make an argument for inclusion are:

-Bloomberg
-Klobuchar
-Booker

After that, they need to go away. All the riff-raff is polling at a combined 7% which is not insignificant.

You damn Republicans always want to restrict things. Democrats believe in equal opportunity for everyone ... unless they're polling higher.

Democrats believe in The Big Tent so why not put it into practice with The Big Debate Stage.

A chicken in every pot, free college education for everyone regardless of ability, and a free podium on stage for every candidate, viable or not.

 

[Irish YJ]

You damn Republicans always want to restrict things. Democrats believe in equal opportunity for everyone ... unless they're polling higher.

Democrats believe in The Big Tent so why not put it into practice with The Big Debate Stage.

A chicken in every pot, free college education for everyone regardless of ability, and a free podium on stage for every candidate, viable or not.

How about free pot in every bong in lieu of, or in addition to the free chicken in every pot? Just wait till health care covers free weed for every oppressed and anxious member of society. Literally a lit US.

 

[IrishLax]

I'm gonna miss Kamala calling Democrat primary voters racist because they weren't ready for a black woman to be the candidate.

I will always remember that Kamala was *tied in second place* before this --
<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/Y4fjA0K2EeE?start=258" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture" allowfullscreen></iframe>

 

[IrishLax]

Some final thoughts on the field as we near the December debate and the last reset of this poll --

Biden was tracking at a "low" of 26% on the RCP average in July after the first debate. He basically maintained between 25% and 30% of 5 months and sits at 27%. That's good enough to win in a four horse race & riff-raff eating up 10%+ of the vote. His major existential threat is Bloomberg... if Bloomberg didn't enter he'd basically be a lock at this point because...

Elizabeth Warren's chickens have come home to roost. And by chickens I mean lies and terrible policy positions. She peaked at 27% in October and caught Biden. This was a steady rise from 8% when the debates started. Over the past 4 months, she has lost approximately half her support and sits at 14%.

Bernie Sanders is basically Joe Biden with a smaller base. He has a floor of about 15% and a ceiling of 20%. He currently sits at 16%.

The only person with momentum right now is Buttigieg. He has gone from 5% to 12% since October. It is clear that he is stealing Warren supporters, and he currently leads in some Iowa polls.

The only person outside of those 4 with positive momentum is Yang. He is tracking at 4%. He realistically needs to be polling at double digits by February to have any shot.

 

[Irish YJ]

Some final thoughts on the field as we near the December debate and the last reset of this poll --

Biden was tracking at a "low" of 26% on the RCP average in July after the first debate. He basically maintained between 25% and 30% of 5 months and sits at 27%. That's good enough to win in a four horse race & riff-raff eating up 10%+ of the vote. His major existential threat is Bloomberg... if Bloomberg didn't enter he'd basically be a lock at this point because...

Elizabeth Warren's chickens have come home to roost. And by chickens I mean lies and terrible policy positions. She peaked at 27% in October and caught Biden. This was a steady rise from 8% when the debates started. Over the past 4 months, she has lost approximately half her support and sits at 14%.

Bernie Sanders is basically Joe Biden with a smaller base. He has a floor of about 15% and a ceiling of 20%. He currently sits at 16%.

The only person with momentum right now is Buttigieg. He has gone from 5% to 12% since October. It is clear that he is stealing Warren supporters, and he currently leads in some Iowa polls.

The only person outside of those 4 with positive momentum is Yang. He is tracking at 4%. He realistically needs to be polling at double digits by February to have any shot.

I just wonder how many of the Warren and Bernie supporters jump to the other once one of them drops. I think most of Bernie's supporters would jump to Warren, and vice versa. I just don't see Mayor Pete taking a bunch unless both drop.

I think you'll basically end up with the Bloomberg/Biden crowd vs the Warren/Sanders/M.Pete crowd. As we get closer, will be interesting to see some of the back room deals on endorsements from those that drop. I just don't see the DNC supporting Sanders or Warren as electable, so Mayor Pete could sneak out that crowd.

Looks like a mess to me. It's going to be hilarious when Booker drops and the woke crowd has all white folk.

 

[RDU Irish]

https://www.hawaiipublicradio.org/post/gabbard-cries-foul-democratic-national-committee-poll-dispute#stream/0

Only one poll but why would you exclude a major New Hampshire service?

Tulsi and Yang are the only two I could possibly stomach. So much of these things are raw name recognition still. Bernie has no chance - he only benefited from the anti-Hillary crowd last time to get over a 25% ceiling. Dems have at least another generation to go before they outright choose socialism. Closet socialism is A-OK for now.

 

[Irishize]

Some final thoughts on the field as we near the December debate and the last reset of this poll --

Biden was tracking at a "low" of 26% on the RCP average in July after the first debate. He basically maintained between 25% and 30% of 5 months and sits at 27%. That's good enough to win in a four horse race & riff-raff eating up 10%+ of the vote. His major existential threat is Bloomberg... if Bloomberg didn't enter he'd basically be a lock at this point because...

Elizabeth Warren's chickens have come home to roost. And by chickens I mean lies and terrible policy positions. She peaked at 27% in October and caught Biden. This was a steady rise from 8% when the debates started. Over the past 4 months, she has lost approximately half her support and sits at 14%.

Bernie Sanders is basically Joe Biden with a smaller base. He has a floor of about 15% and a ceiling of 20%. He currently sits at 16%.

The only person with momentum right now is Buttigieg. He has gone from 5% to 12% since October. It is clear that he is stealing Warren supporters, and he currently leads in some Iowa polls.

The only person outside of those 4 with positive momentum is Yang. He is tracking at 4%. He realistically needs to be polling at double digits by February to have any shot.

Good summary Lax.

I didn’t vote for Trump or Hillary. The country has not imploded under Trump & it probably wouldn’t have under Hillary either. Part of me recoils when Trump gets petty via Twitter or if someone says something remotely negative about him. But I can’t help but enjoy it when he so easily trolls the Dems and triggers them on a daily basis. He plays w/ their emotions like a cat to a mouse.

All that to say, if you’re a Democrat....is this the best your party has to offer? Other than Yang & Tulsi, the Dems are putting up a bunch of caricatures. Don’t get me wrong, it’s happened before. I remember thinking the same thing during Obama’s re-election campaign b/c the Republicans put up a bunch of stiffs that all represented the status quo. The carried that over to the 2016 election and I believe that’s why Trump won.

 

[BleedBlueGold]

Some final thoughts on the field as we near the December debate and the last reset of this poll --

Biden was tracking at a "low" of 26% on the RCP average in July after the first debate. He basically maintained between 25% and 30% of 5 months and sits at 27%. That's good enough to win in a four horse race & riff-raff eating up 10%+ of the vote. His major existential threat is Bloomberg... if Bloomberg didn't enter he'd basically be a lock at this point because...

Elizabeth Warren's chickens have come home to roost. And by chickens I mean lies and terrible policy positions. She peaked at 27% in October and caught Biden. This was a steady rise from 8% when the debates started. Over the past 4 months, she has lost approximately half her support and sits at 14%.

Bernie Sanders is basically Joe Biden with a smaller base. He has a floor of about 15% and a ceiling of 20%. He currently sits at 16%.

The only person with momentum right now is Buttigieg. He has gone from 5% to 12% since October. It is clear that he is stealing Warren supporters, and he currently leads in some Iowa polls.

The only person outside of those 4 with positive momentum is Yang. He is tracking at 4%. He realistically needs to be polling at double digits by February to have any shot.

I understand that the polls are all we have to go by, but I wouldn't put too much stock into them. Too many flaws.

Couple of points:

IIRC, Warren's surge happened around the time Bernie had that health scare? Maybe I'm wrong. Maybe it had nothing to do with it. Idk. Just a thought. She's been called out a ton (rightfully so) ever since her surge. Luckily, she's been brought back to the rest of the pack.

I asked about this yesterday (I have no idea the legitimacy behind it), but Tulsi pointed out (rightfully so) that early polls are mostly based on name recognition and that Pete essentially "bought" his surge by spending a ton of money on advertising. She mentions how his surge doesn't necessarily reflect support, just better name recognition among pollsters.

Lastly, I know the number swing would suggest it, but I don't see how Pete is stealing form Warren. Pete is not a Progressive. Most pro-Warren Progressives can't stand Pete. And the moderates who are likely to vote Pete sure as hell aren't favoring Warren.

https://www.hawaiipublicradio.org/post/gabbard-cries-foul-democratic-national-committee-poll-dispute#stream/0

Only one poll but why would you exclude a major New Hampshire service?

Tulsi and Yang are the only two I could possibly stomach. So much of these things are raw name recognition still. Bernie has no chance - he only benefited from the anti-Hillary crowd last time to get over a 25% ceiling. Dems have at least another generation to go before they outright choose socialism. Closet socialism is A-OK for now.

At this point, Tulsi has my vote. I love how she called out Kamala and Pete.

 

[IrishLax]

I understand that the polls are all we have to go by, but I wouldn't put too much stock into them. Too many flaws.

Couple of points:

IIRC, Warren's surge happened around the time Bernie had that health scare? Maybe I'm wrong. Maybe it had nothing to do with it. Idk. Just a thought. She's been called out a ton (rightfully so) ever since her surge. Luckily, she's been brought back to the rest of the pack.

I asked about this yesterday (I have no idea the legitimacy behind it), but Tulsi pointed out (rightfully so) that early polls are mostly based on name recognition and that Pete essentially "bought" his surge by spending a ton of money on advertising. She mentions how his surge doesn't necessarily reflect support, just better name recognition among pollsters.

Lastly, I know the number swing would suggest it, but I don't see how Pete is stealing form Warren. Pete is not a Progressive. Most pro-Warren Progressives can't stand Pete. And the moderates who are likely to vote Pete sure as hell aren't favoring Warren.

At this point, Tulsi has my vote. I love how she called out Kamala and Pete.

Those aren't the people, IMO, Pete is stealing. He's stealing the half of Warren's base that was polling for her after initial debates... the crew that thinks Biden is too old/moderate/whatever but also doesn't like outright socialism so won't support Bernie... but was not in love with her policies once she had her feet held to the fire. This group is basically the same transient 10% that first went for Kamala Harris then transitioned over to Warren and has now transitioned over to Pete Buttigieg. That's an over-simplification, but Buttigieg seems to be solidly leading in Iowa at this point on the back left-but-not-far-left politics and being a reasonable sounding guy who isn't part of the political machine. He's getting the group of people that can't stomach one of the big three for [insert reason].

 

[BleedBlueGold]

Those aren't the people, IMO, Pete is stealing. He's stealing the half of Warren's base that was polling for her after initial debates... the crew that thinks Biden is too old/moderate/whatever but also doesn't like outright socialism so won't support Bernie... but was not in love with her policies once she had her feet held to the fire. This group is basically the same transient 10% that first went for Kamala Harris then transitioned over to Warren and has now transitioned over to Pete Buttigieg. That's an over-simplification, but Buttigieg seems to be solidly leading in Iowa at this point on the back left-but-not-far-left politics and being a reasonable sounding guy who isn't part of the political machine. He's getting the group of people that can't stomach one of the big three for [insert reason].

Makes sense. I agree with all of that. I might push back a little on Pete not being part of the machine. His comments about sending troops into Mexico for aid if need be is literally the type or interventionism that the establishment war machine favors. Someone on his communications team even sided with Tulsi over that he-said, she-said incident during the last debate.

I get what you're saying though. He's attracting that moderate crowd who wants the young buck and also isn't fully to the left as Bernie and Warren.

 

[Irish YJ]

Democrats pick Hillary Clinton as 2020 front-runner in new party poll
https://nypost.com/2019/12/09/democrats-pick-hillary-clinton-as-2020-frontrunner-in-new-party-poll/

Dems with HRC

 

[GoIrish41]

Some final thoughts on the field as we near the December debate and the last reset of this poll --

Biden was tracking at a "low" of 26% on the RCP average in July after the first debate. He basically maintained between 25% and 30% of 5 months and sits at 27%. That's good enough to win in a four horse race & riff-raff eating up 10%+ of the vote. His major existential threat is Bloomberg... if Bloomberg didn't enter he'd basically be a lock at this point because...

Elizabeth Warren's chickens have come home to roost. And by chickens I mean lies and terrible policy positions. She peaked at 27% in October and caught Biden. This was a steady rise from 8% when the debates started. Over the past 4 months, she has lost approximately half her support and sits at 14%.

Bernie Sanders is basically Joe Biden with a smaller base. He has a floor of about 15% and a ceiling of 20%. He currently sits at 16%.

The only person with momentum right now is Buttigieg. He has gone from 5% to 12% since October. It is clear that he is stealing Warren supporters, and he currently leads in some Iowa polls.

The only person outside of those 4 with positive momentum is Yang. He is tracking at 4%. He realistically needs to be polling at double digits by February to have any shot.

Good analysis.

I wonder what would happen if Bernie/Warren decided to run together on the same ticket. Combined, they would be polling at about 30% right now, but I suspect that if they combined forces they would provide a shot in the arm for the Progressive wing of the party and generate a lot of new excitement. In addition, they'd have an extensive ground organization that had previously supported two upper tier candidates.

I read an piece in WaPo the other day that said there have been a record 3.9 million new voter registrations across the country since the 18 election and that well over half of those new voters are under the age of 34. This number represents a near doubling of the new registrations ahead of the 2018 Blue Wave election. I believe these new registrations favor progressive candidates in general. A swell of young progressives heading to the polls would be favorable to the Democratic party in general, and progressives in particular.

It is my opinion that if Millennials make up their minds to come out in force in 2020, they will decide the result of the election. There is more of them than anyone else, and the energy within the Democratic Party is with them, not with moderate candidates -- whether they are candidates with decades of experience like Biden or a fresh new face like Mayor Pete. If you want to motivate Democratic turnout, they key is the youth vote. Just one guy's opinion.

Of course, egos being what they are, I have trouble seeing this come to pass, but I do believe it is the easiest path to victory for the Dems.

 

[Irishize]

Democrats pick Hillary Clinton as 2020 front-runner in new party poll
https://nypost.com/2019/12/09/democrats-pick-hillary-clinton-as-2020-frontrunner-in-new-party-poll/

Dems with HRC

The Clintons have joined the select group of Twinkies & cockroaches as the only survivors of a nuclear holocaust.

 

[Irish YJ]

The Clintons have joined the select group of Twinkies & cockroaches as the only survivors of a nuclear holocaust.

Dems "just can't quit them" lol

 

[Irish#1]

Democrats pick Hillary Clinton as 2020 front-runner in new party poll
https://nypost.com/2019/12/09/democrats-pick-hillary-clinton-as-2020-frontrunner-in-new-party-poll/

Dems with HRC

Curious as to how the poll was presented. Sounds like she was presented as an option among the candidates. I wonder what percentage she would have garnered as a write-in if she hadn't been presented as an option?

 

[BGIF]

Pelosi Incensed

Pelosi Incensed

Democrats pick Hillary Clinton as 2020 front-runner in new party poll
...

Hillary claims she can win for the second time. (Hey Legacy why don't you point out to Democrats that the winner of the Electoral College wins the Presidency according to our Constitution since you're on a civics crusade.)


While Hillary is stumping, Pelosi's fuming. Nancy's already got Donald on Trumped Up Charges. IF she can entangle Pence as collateral damage (co-conspirator) ... the Order of Succession then elevates the Speaker of The House to Air Force 1.


Hillary's trying to out coup the coup maker-in-chief.

 

[IrishLax]

Not sure if anyone watched the debate last night, but Yang crushed it. Media still trying to not give him a fair shot, and it may be too little too late.

Biden also had his best debate yet, and Pete was solid.

Bernie and Warren look like they're running out of gas.

 

[Irish#1]

Not sure if anyone watched the debate last night, but Yang crushed it. Media still trying to not give him a fair shot, and it may be too little too late.

Biden also had his best debate yet, and Pete was solid.

Bernie and Warren look like they're running out of gas.

Had a birthday dinner to attend. Doesn't surprise me about Bernie and Warren, especially Warren ever since she's been caught fibbing a few times and then her fiasco on how to pay medical for everyone.

Pete or Tulsi are the two best in the entire group.