COVID-19

ab2cmiller

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Troubling graph. Here's the link to the CDC website for the data. I had to confirm that it was accurate before posting. Data was last updated towards the end of August. Could actually be worse for June and July given lags in death reporting. Wonder what it would look like if we had updated data.

https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/AH-Monthly-Provisional-Counts-of-Deaths-by-Age-Gro/ezfr-g6hf

[TWEET]https://twitter.com/gummibear737/status/1486035156892794886[/TWEET]
 

ulukinatme

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Does your wife have the ability to order tests through her work for herself? I have friends with wives in health care that got vaxxed at like 3AM through hook-ups. You wouldn't expect that in a first world country lol.

At the start of the 2021 my wife couldn't get vaccinated as a nurse at her job, it was weird. I don't know if it was a company policy to follow state/federal guidelines by age or if it was the shortage of vaccines they were facing at the time, no idea. It was a few months before she got her first jab, and she ended up getting it from her former boss that runs an assisted living facility. She basically told her, "You can't get it at your work? Come see me." which was pretty cool since my wife was swabbing noses of 12-15 positive COVID people a day at the time when she wasn't giving out shots. Pays not to burn bridges sometimes.

As far as tests for herself and our family, I don't know how they're handling that. Other than the one exposure for my son where my wife had to go through that process over the phone she's only been using rapids on us (He needed a confirmation to return to school). She's brought rapid tests home 2-3 times to check the family and I was the only one that ever came back positive. I know other nurses are doing the same at her work to make sure they're not bringing anything home to their families, I assume the tests are getting written off or covered by the company cause she's not paying for them and their boss knows it's happening.
 

PerthDomer

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Troubling graph. Here's the link to the CDC website for the data. I had to confirm that it was accurate before posting. Data was last updated towards the end of August. Could actually be worse for June and July given lags in death reporting. Wonder what it would look like if we had updated data.

https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/AH-Monthly-Provisional-Counts-of-Deaths-by-Age-Gro/ezfr-g6hf

[TWEET]https://twitter.com/gummibear737/status/1486035156892794886[/TWEET]

A natural cause death is any death not related to trauma. I'll tell you this summer we saw a surge of both delta and non covid viral infections as mitigation was released. Lots of deaths from bacterial infections we hadn't seen since before the pandemic. Throughout the pandemic peds mortality had been lower than normal because the things that kill kids were mitigated. This summer we saw winter level surges of picu patients. Some were due to delta, but more were RSV or pneumonia or sepsis or bacterial meningitis.

Also, a large number of kids are unvaccinated. Which is great, because differential mortality would jump out like a sore thumb.

in terms of mandates there are costs and benefits. The costs to mandating are polarization, distrust in government, attempts to get rid of childhood imms etc. The cost of doing nothing is hospitals above capacity, compromised care for non covid pts etc.

before Delta there were no government mandates outside of hospitals because we were close enough to herd immunity. Delta had a very high R0 and was roughly 2.5 times more deadly than the Wuhan strain. (Roughly add 12 to 14 years to your age or tack on poorly controlled diabetes to your initial risk).

This lead to crisis levels of care and moved the needle on mandates. My guess post omicron is if things settle out and seem OK the government backs off Covid control measures. The risk though always exists that we get some doomsday variant, but having enough of the protease inhibitor decreases that risk significantly.
 

notredomer23

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Troubling graph. Here's the link to the CDC website for the data. I had to confirm that it was accurate before posting. Data was last updated towards the end of August. Could actually be worse for June and July given lags in death reporting. Wonder what it would look like if we had updated data.

https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/AH-Monthly-Provisional-Counts-of-Deaths-by-Age-Gro/ezfr-g6hf

[TWEET]https://twitter.com/gummibear737/status/1486035156892794886[/TWEET]

I can't believe I am going to gatekeep the CDC but this is a case of where you can make data show whatever you want it to IMO. He convenient doesn't look at All-Cause death because it wouldn't fit his narrative. The all cause death in June and July is actually amongst the lowest it had been since the start of the Pandemic for 15-24. These are all preliminary analysis and I suspect the data that he thinks is fishy (the category: Symptoms, signs and abnormal clinical and laboratory findings, not elsewhere classified (R00-R99)) would play itself out normally the next time the CDC updates this data. Which in turn people will think is fishy anyway. So really no winning here.
 

ab2cmiller

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I can't believe I am going to gatekeep the CDC but this is a case of where you can make data show whatever you want it to IMO. He convenient doesn't look at All-Cause death because it wouldn't fit his narrative. The all cause death in June and July is actually amongst the lowest it had been since the start of the Pandemic for 15-24. These are all preliminary analysis and I suspect the data that he thinks is fishy (the category: Symptoms, signs and abnormal clinical and laboratory findings, not elsewhere classified (R00-R99)) would play itself out normally the next time the CDC updates this data. Which in turn people will think is fishy anyway. So really no winning here.

Can you point me to an all cause mortality chart for ages 15-24 for the past 3 years or so? I did some googling but nothing came up that was obvious.

Thanks
 

notredomer23

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Can you point me to an all cause mortality chart for ages 15-24 for the past 3 years or so? I did some googling but nothing came up that was obvious.

Thanks

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet...SX5JFvUtdibuvYDrALdOzro5XAnjNd6M0_l8/pubhtml#

He shared this a few tweets down. IF when the the CDC gets off their ass and updates this data and those numbers are still outliers, then I agree it's very troubling. But given the all-cause mortality, I am guessing the numbers will be updated and look *hopefully* normally.
 

PerthDomer

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https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet...SX5JFvUtdibuvYDrALdOzro5XAnjNd6M0_l8/pubhtml#

He shared this a few tweets down. IF when the the CDC gets off their ass and updates this data and those numbers are still outliers, then I agree it's very troubling. But given the all-cause mortality, I am guessing the numbers will be updated and look *hopefully* normally.

If you want real time information on public health info I'd go look at British or Israeli data. CDC is slow as hell. If you think the US government is engaging in a conspiracy to suppress bad vaccine info you'd have to believe every world leader is part of a cabal that's hiding this because everyone's data on vaccines and adverse events is lining up.
 

RDU Irish

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It so easy to be selfish and make fun of others who may not have fared as well as you did. So on point. With the use of masks and all the recommendations, my family and I made it all the way through this without getting COVID.... until a month ago. Then my whole family got it. Luckily we were vaxed and it wasnt as bad (as expected becasue of the vax) as my mother in law who was on a respirator and unconscious for 5 weeks. But cool you dont like masks.. As I said before communciable and virulent diseases dont give a shit about your personal freedoms. THe virus must be a libtard.

Literally this weekend - my wife has a co-worker hacking up a lung and looking like shit who was 5 days off her positive covid diagnosis- let's fire the unvaxed and then make exceptions to bring symptomatic covid cases in to work due to staffing shortages. Oh - and the travel staff brought in at top dollar typically don't have the same vax requirements of regular staff. But SciENce!
 

RDU Irish

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Strong disagree. Questioning any or all of:

-the effectiveness of masks (especially cloth)
-the effectiveness of lock downs
-long term mental, developmental, and emotional health of people (especially children and adolescents) in lockdowns and isolation
-the effectiveness of natural immunity
-a "vaccine" produced at "warp speed'
-the foreknowledge that changing and evolving variants would emerge, and how the vaccine would work on these variants not yet in existence
-the transmission and infection rate of those vaccinated
-sending infected, elderly patients back into nursing homes
-the golden opportunity for health officials to highlight, and come down on, Americans overall health in regards to obesity, high blood pressure, and diabetes, but have remained virtually silent
-covid surface transmission
-requiring and mandating people who have been infected (sometimes twice) to not only get vaccinated, but boosted as well
-why people in politics and privilege are not required to live by the rules for the rest of society, often times done by people who made the "rules"
-how the virus becomes MORE dangerous and infectious at certain times of the day (curfews)
-why monoclonal treatments were laughed at as quack science
-the color of one's skin factoring in
-why the count of infected keeps changing, along with the methodology of said counting
-and why a person who died from a car wreck, but was counted as a covid death

These are merely some examples off the top of my head. I could go on.

Questioning these is not at all "out of the realm of reason." Yet, any who have even wondered about these things, and even for a moment questioned "settled science," have been labeled anti-science, anti-vax, science deniers, and lunatics.

Best post I have seen on this topic anywhere you crazy anti-vax science denier.
 

bobbyok1

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Anecdotal story to do with what you will . . .

My 5 year old son got COVID, tested positive with an at home test. We are all healthy, no more COVID in the home.

Went and got the whole family tested at a drive up test site. Results came back in 72 hours ish.

None of us are vaccinated. 3 positives, 2 negatives. My wife, 8 year old, and 5 year old were positive. My 3 year old and I were negative. Symptoms/results:

POSITIVE
Wife (39)- Mild aches for 36-48 hours. Mild cold like symptoms of runny nose, sore throat. Mild fatigue for 5-7 days
8 year old- Runny nose, mild fatigue 36-48 hours.
5 year old- Fever chills 24-36 hours, runny nose 3-4 days

NEGATIVE
3 year old- No symptoms, possible runny nose congestion (came later, 7-10 days after initial symptoms for others)
Myself (45)- No symptoms, possible runny nose congestion (I have chronic sinus/asthma issues due to Samter's Triad diagnosis, hard to distinguish)

On the whole, our personal experience was a very mild sickness in our home, we have dealt with worse (and I know plenty of both vaxxed and unvaxxed who have had a much harder time)

I take recommended dosage of vitamin C, D, Zinc, Quercetin daily (have for many months)
I had regular interaction with my family, including hugs, laying by my kids at bedtime, normal everyday life stuff without masks.

This is not an arrogant post, but one of real life interactions with COVID. Some questions that come to my mind:

1. Why didn't I get the highly contagious variant of Omicron based upon the above facts? Or if I did, why no significant symptoms to speak of?
2. Should we be making claims that "the vaccine made my symptoms less?" or "my supplements made my symptoms less?" We were not vaccinated and had very minor symptoms. And yet, was it my supplements that keep me healthy? My wife wasn't taking any supplements.

It seems like a healthy does of humility would do us all good, myself included.
 
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Valpodoc85

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So good to hear you and your family are doing well. A few answers to your questions based on my experience. Initially, Covid seemed to have a less than 40% pass thru. In the pre vaccine days saw many husbands who were neg and wife's pos despite "close" contact prior to the positive test. Omicron seems to be in the 60% range which is very high for a virus but still gives plenty of room for experiences such as yours. I would suggest this is more likely than the supplements. It would seem genetics play a part and may also determine severity of illness.
 

RDU Irish

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Bobby - Judging from your pic your wife must be half your age, reps. You rightfully observe that confirmation bias has fertile ground. Could be milder symptoms by chance or could be the "name an action taken" - be it vaccine, booster, vitamins, sheep dewormer, bourbon or a bag of dicks (to include Toronto).

Co-worker out two weeks ago as 4 of 5 in her house were sick. Two tested positive, two negative. She is only one vaccinated, had by far the worst symptoms and tested negative. All four had the same symptoms to varying degrees. Basketball coach requiring an EKG on her teenage son before he is allowed to return to the court, shouldn't he require that of the vaccinated kids too?
 

ulukinatme

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Anecdotal story to do with what you will . . .

My 5 year old son got COVID, tested positive with an at home test. We are all healthy, no more COVID in the home.

Went and got the whole family tested at a drive up test site. Results came back in 72 hours ish.

None of us are vaccinated. 3 positives, 2 negatives. My wife, 8 year old, and 5 year old were positive. My 3 year old and I were negative. Symptoms/results:

POSITIVE
Wife (39)- Mild aches for 36-48 hours. Mild cold like symptoms of runny nose, sore throat. Mild fatigue for 5-7 days
8 year old- Runny nose, mild fatigue 36-48 hours.
5 year old- Fever chills 24-36 hours, runny nose 3-4 days

NEGATIVE
3 year old- No symptoms, possible runny nose congestion (came later, 7-10 days after initial symptoms for others)
Myself (45)- No symptoms, possible runny nose congestion (I have chronic sinus/asthma issues due to Samter's Triad diagnosis, hard to distinguish)

On the whole, our personal experience was a very mild sickness in our home, we have dealt with worse (and I know plenty of both vaxxed and unvaxxed who have had a much harder time)

I take recommended dosage of vitamin C, D, Zinc, Quercetin daily (have for many months)
I had regular interaction with my family, including hugs, laying by my kids at bedtime, normal everyday life stuff without masks.

This is not an arrogant post, but one of real life interactions with COVID. Some questions that come to my mind:

1. Why didn't I get the highly contagious variant of Omicron based upon the above facts? Or if I did, why no significant symptoms to speak of?
2. Should we be making claims that "the vaccine made my symptoms less?" or "my supplements made my symptoms less?" We were not vaccinated and had very minor symptoms. And yet, was it my supplements that keep me healthy? My wife wasn't taking any supplements.

It seems like a healthy does of humility would do us all good, myself included.

By many accounts the current Omicron variant is pretty mild compared to Delta and some earlier strains. I'm unvaccinated as well and I had similar mild symptoms back at Christmas. We should remember that the current vaccine hasn't been altered since it was originally created for the Wuhan variant, so it may help provide some protection and reduce symptoms still even if Omicron is lighter but that doesn't mean it's not helping. They're expecting a new jab will be available around March that'll be built around Omicron...although we already have the new BA.2 variant or whatever starting to make rounds. I would take it with a grain of salt, but you're basically doing the same regimen I used when I did contract COVID. I didn't take the Quercetin, a nurse suggested it with the others, but it wasn't readiily available and the information online suggested it wasn't necessary or guaranteed to help.

So I think we should all be grateful that the current strain hasn't been quite as dangerous even though it seems to be easier to spread. We seem to be getting closer and closer to the pandemic changing to endemic which would be a good thing in a sense so we can maybe get back to normal. Fortunately my family didn't seem to get it when I had it, only my wife is vaccinated for her job. I went the opposite route and completely quarantined myself away from them all when I was sick lol. No hugs even on Christmas day, I pretty much watched them open presents then went back to bed for the entire day.
 

bobbyok1

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Bobby - Judging from your pic your wife must be half your age, reps. You rightfully observe that confirmation bias has fertile ground. Could be milder symptoms by chance or could be the "name an action taken" - be it vaccine, booster, vitamins, sheep dewormer, bourbon or a bag of dicks (to include Toronto).

Co-worker out two weeks ago as 4 of 5 in her house were sick. Two tested positive, two negative. She is only one vaccinated, had by far the worst symptoms and tested negative. All four had the same symptoms to varying degrees. Basketball coach requiring an EKG on her teenage son before he is allowed to return to the court, shouldn't he require that of the vaccinated kids too?

If I had the intellect or the influence of the guy in the picture I am sure I'd be doing other things with my time than IE, lol

Definitely grateful we had mild symptoms. Whatever the case, taking care of your day to day health never hurts. And I am looking forward to this thing becoming an endemic and all these mask, vaccinations, vax cards, testing, etc being a non issue (even though some will likely be reluctant to give them up or see them as unessential).
 

ACamp1900

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If I had the intellect or the influence of the guy in the picture I am sure I'd be doing other things with my time than IE, lol.

Kind Sir,

I’ll have it duly noted that this fine site is for true intellectuals. Only astute (or ass toot, whichever, fuck you) men of culture with the highest of intelligent such as myself need post here. In this establishment we discuss the finer things,… sports, food and bewbs.

Please rephrase your aforementioned statement or kindly consider GingTFO.

Sincerly,

The Cultured Masses for dat Asses
 

bobbyok1

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Kind Sir,

I’ll have it duly noted that this fine site is for true intellectuals. Only astute (or ass toot, whichever, fuck you) men of culture with the highest of intelligent such as myself need post here. In this establishment we discuss the finer things,… sports, food and bewbs.

Please rephrase your aforementioned statement or kindly consider GingTFO.

Sincerly,

The Cultured Masses for dat Asses

What I meant to say was . . .

​​​​​​If I had the intellect or the influence of the guy in the picture I am sure I'd be telling everyone on IE how great my life is compared to theirs
 

ACamp1900

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What I meant to say was . . .

​​​​​​If I had the intellect or the influence of the guy in the picture I am sure I'd be telling everyone on IE how great my life is compared to theirs

^^
The epitome of culture,… I underestimated you sir. Perhaps some time we should discuss bewbs.
 

PerthDomer

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Anecdotal story to do with what you will . . .

My 5 year old son got COVID, tested positive with an at home test. We are all healthy, no more COVID in the home.

Went and got the whole family tested at a drive up test site. Results came back in 72 hours ish.

None of us are vaccinated. 3 positives, 2 negatives. My wife, 8 year old, and 5 year old were positive. My 3 year old and I were negative. Symptoms/results:

POSITIVE
Wife (39)- Mild aches for 36-48 hours. Mild cold like symptoms of runny nose, sore throat. Mild fatigue for 5-7 days
8 year old- Runny nose, mild fatigue 36-48 hours.
5 year old- Fever chills 24-36 hours, runny nose 3-4 days

NEGATIVE
3 year old- No symptoms, possible runny nose congestion (came later, 7-10 days after initial symptoms for others)
Myself (45)- No symptoms, possible runny nose congestion (I have chronic sinus/asthma issues due to Samter's Triad diagnosis, hard to distinguish)

On the whole, our personal experience was a very mild sickness in our home, we have dealt with worse (and I know plenty of both vaxxed and unvaxxed who have had a much harder time)

I take recommended dosage of vitamin C, D, Zinc, Quercetin daily (have for many months)
I had regular interaction with my family, including hugs, laying by my kids at bedtime, normal everyday life stuff without masks.

This is not an arrogant post, but one of real life interactions with COVID. Some questions that come to my mind:

1. Why didn't I get the highly contagious variant of Omicron based upon the above facts? Or if I did, why no significant symptoms to speak of?
2. Should we be making claims that "the vaccine made my symptoms less?" or "my supplements made my symptoms less?" We were not vaccinated and had very minor symptoms. And yet, was it my supplements that keep me healthy? My wife wasn't taking any supplements.

It seems like a healthy does of humility would do us all good, myself included.

COVID's a weird virus. While far more contagious on a population level than the flu, this is driven by a small number of people. Most don't spread the virus. For the flu you get less super spreaders but a lot more people spreading to 3 or 5 people (in home/close contact). We think the explosion in pediatric cases may be because kids were protected from transmission early and the household spread wasn't as much as say a flu and now people are bringing kids to places where superspreader events can happen.

Think about it like this. In covid about 5% of infected people spread it to hundreds of others. Another 15% spread it to 10 or so. 20% infect one or 2. 60% don't spread it. For the flu like 1% spread to more than 10 people but 60% spread it to 3 to 5 people. So covid is more contagious but if you are thinking about yourself your odds of infecting the whole family are higher for the flu than covid.

The numbers aren't exact, just using them to make the pattern clear.
 

PerthDomer

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And to be clear the median estimate of case fatality rate for omicron is higher than the Wuhan variant and close to alpha. It's just lower than delta and we have a lot of people with some degree of immunity getting infected. This is still really bad.
 

TorontoGold

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By many accounts the current Omicron variant is pretty mild compared to Delta and some earlier strains. I'm unvaccinated as well and I had similar mild symptoms back at Christmas. We should remember that the current vaccine hasn't been altered since it was originally created for the Wuhan variant, so it may help provide some protection and reduce symptoms still even if Omicron is lighter but that doesn't mean it's not helping. They're expecting a new jab will be available around March that'll be built around Omicron...although we already have the new BA.2 variant or whatever starting to make rounds. I would take it with a grain of salt, but you're basically doing the same regimen I used when I did contract COVID. I didn't take the Quercetin, a nurse suggested it with the others, but it wasn't readiily available and the information online suggested it wasn't necessary or guaranteed to help.

So I think we should all be grateful that the current strain hasn't been quite as dangerous even though it seems to be easier to spread. We seem to be getting closer and closer to the pandemic changing to endemic which would be a good thing in a sense so we can maybe get back to normal. Fortunately my family didn't seem to get it when I had it, only my wife is vaccinated for her job. I went the opposite route and completely quarantined myself away from them all when I was sick lol. No hugs even on Christmas day, I pretty much watched them open presents then went back to bed for the entire day.

Not a gotcha or leading question - do you have reading on the new vaccine that's being developed? Think it would really interesting to read.
 

ab2cmiller

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And to be clear the median estimate of case fatality rate for omicron is higher than the Wuhan variant and close to alpha. It's just lower than delta and we have a lot of people with some degree of immunity getting infected. This is still really bad.

Where can I find this data?
 

bobbyok1

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And to be clear the median estimate of case fatality rate for omicron is higher than the Wuhan variant and close to alpha. It's just lower than delta and we have a lot of people with some degree of immunity getting infected. This is still really bad.

Not denying your take here, but this seems completely contrary to the basic numbers. How would a much higher rate of cases as we have with Omicron, and a slight increase in fatalities equate to Omicron being higher than Wuhan and on par with Alpha, just lower than Delta in case fatality rate?

Does "case fatality rate" mean total deaths? Or does it mean death per infection?

​​​​​​https://ftp.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/#graph-cases-daily
 

notredomer23

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And to be clear the median estimate of case fatality rate for omicron is higher than the Wuhan variant and close to alpha. It's just lower than delta and we have a lot of people with some degree of immunity getting infected. This is still really bad.

I respect the work you've done, but this seems to fly contrary to dozens of studies that have been released including the most recent MMWR from the CDC. Looking at the current case data, if deaths lag by 3 weeks, the case fatality ratio would be around 0.3%. And this the first variant for the full wave where at home tests have been widely available causing a massive undercount of documented cases.
 

PerthDomer

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I respect the work you've done, but this seems to fly contrary to dozens of studies that have been released including the most recent MMWR from the CDC. Looking at the current case data, if deaths lag by 3 weeks, the case fatality ratio would be around 0.3%. And this the first variant for the full wave where at home tests have been widely available causing a massive undercount of documented cases.

I'm using British data. The calculations by the cdc compare to delta which is 2.3 times as deadly as the Wuhan strain roughly. It also assumes only those with documented infections (real numbers are probably 2 to 3 times that) which will skew the numbers to make the disease look less deadly and natural immunity less effective.

Think about the math like this. of 100 people infected 60 are immunized with no mortality. 10 have had prior infection with 1 death. 30 have no immunity with 6 deaths.

You'd say 20% mortality with vaccines 100% effective and natural infection roughly 50% effective.

But say we missed half the prior infections and the numbers are 60 with vaccination still 100%, effective. Now 2 deaths in 20 with natural immunity and 5 dead in 20 with no immunity.

You get the vaccine 100% effective with a 25% mortality rate and natural infection 75% effective.

That's the mistake the cdc makes. Delta cases on average infected more immune naive people than omicron got. That's also the promise, because the pool of immune naive people keeps shrinking, so if you got a new variant twice as bad as delta... the death toll might be less bad than omicron.

The other thing it misses is that people who are vulnerable to covid have died... so the population infected is less susceptible to a covid death.
 

PerthDomer

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Also. Imagine if delta were the 1st variant. You'd have double the admits per case and based on spread a much higher peak before we knew what hit us. We might not have offered intubation to anyone under 50... That's why we need to make sure we're ready for the next pandemic. It could be way worse next time.
 

ab2cmiller

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Here's a thread walking through the data from an epidemiologist

https://twitter.com/famulare_mike/st...827443201?s=20

Didn't see anything in the twitter feed about British data. Most of what this guy was analyzing was data specific to the state of Washington and contained quite a bit of speculation as it was very early in Omicron. It's all the way back to Dec 3rd.

This tweet was just crazy.

[TWEET]https://twitter.com/famulare_mike/status/1466581196314271745[/TWEET]

Again, if you could provide some source for the British data you are referencing.
 

ab2cmiller

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Here's his follow-up analysis where he admitted he was wrong and with the new data he's referencing the UK data which points to Omicron being 1/3 as severe as Delta which would place it .73 as severe as 2020-SARS-2.

[TWEET]https://twitter.com/famulare_mike/status/1482097501674950657[/TWEET]
 

irishog77

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Here's his follow-up analysis where he admitted he was wrong and with the new data he's referencing the UK data which points to Omicron being 1/3 as severe as Delta which would place it .73 as severe as 2020-SARS-2.

[TWEET]https://twitter.com/famulare_mike/status/1482097501674950657[/TWEET]

Thanks for looking this up and posting. I appreciate Perth taking time to try and explain numbers better, but something wasn't making sense with all the other numbers I've seen.
 
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