COVID-19

[Irishize]

Make sure to watch the '73 Sugar Bowl.

And the ‘75 Orange Bowl

 

[Irishize]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HRH8zJ8dqpQ&feature=youtu.be


Lines snake around arena for California food bank.

 

[Bishop2b5]

Make sure to watch the '73 Sugar Bowl.

*%&* #@$^&~! Too soon! That one still stings. Man, you guys had our number and were a thorn in our side in the 70's.

 

[NDRock]

Make sure to watch the '73 Sugar Bowl.

Yep, you don’t often see two teams playing in the title game who both end up as NCs.

 

[NorthDakota]

I guess my point is, if these people can't see what's happening around the world and that other countries are implementing those measures - why do they believe it should be any different for them?

Trust me, I don't think politicians play by the same rules that "the people" do.

It should be different because most countries have substantially less individual freedom than the United States.

 

[NDdomer2]

indiana said 47% of icu beds are available and only like 22% used for covid and 32% for non covid. 75% of ventilators are available and 14% are for covid and 11% for non covid.

only 25% of all hospitalized patients need ICU, only 6% of positive for covid need ICU.

 

[Wild Bill]

I guess my point is, if these people can't see what's happening around the world and that other countries are implementing those measures - why do they believe it should be any different for them?

Trust me, I don't think politicians play by the same rules that "the people" do.

Because Americans do not trust our ruling class, including politicians, business leaders, media, etc. They've given us plenty of reasons not to trust them. This is on them, not the people who are pissed off about the policies being implemented.

 

[Irish#1]

Yep, you don’t often see two teams playing in the title game who both end up as NCs.

And one doesn't deserve it. AMIRITE?

 

[Sea Turtle]

This isn't the flattened curve we were promised:

https://finance.yahoo.com/amphtml/news/isn-t-flattened-curve-were-220023017.html

 

[Irishize]

This isn't the flattened curve we were promised:

https://finance.yahoo.com/amphtml/news/isn-t-flattened-curve-were-220023017.html

It’s looking like the best coarse of action was to slowly and judiciously open back up the public once PPE/ventilators were confirmed to be enough. Keep the elderly, the infected & the immuno-compromised quarantined and let the healthy re-enter the workplace where necessary while others work from home if they’re infected, immuno-suppressed, etc.

If not, when they re-open the economy in the fall, the same thing will happen all over again and aging every six months.

 

[Circa]

There are movies about the end of the world on TV and in the theaters basically every day lol.

And Parasite was a film with different subject matter... I'd start 'thinking' instead of 'listening' had this pandemic resulted in the wealthy suffering at the hands of the poor for any reason.

The Patterns of manipulation and mind control are the origination of my bases... No One Knew Charles Manson was apart of the CIA and their (cia's) psychologist either... along with the guy that killed the guy that killed Kennedy.(Ruby) Manson was seeing that Dr. for years before the murder's took place. Ruby saw him also and the same Dr. was with him numerous times while he was in prison before the Warren Report.

MKUltra/ Manchurian candidate were called conspiracies until the Senate had a hearing about it. (and those that still listen to mainstream media still think they are conspiracies). It's not' what we are told that we need to worry about. It's why.
The Military Industrial Complex Is the Deep State Trump has even talked about in his daily briefings. He's the first President to talk of such a things since Kennedy. (Can't hardly kill a sitting President anymore without fallout). A virus will do.


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[Circa]

indiana said 47% of icu beds are available and only like 22% used for covid and 32% for non covid. 75% of ventilators are available and 14% are for covid and 11% for non covid.

only 25% of all hospitalized patients need ICU, only 6% of positive for covid need ICU.

Have a ball... I'm not a, 'I told you all so type'. So I won't do that and never have done that to anyone but, It's just time to realize Grocery stores and essential businesses aren't immune to this thing. We all go to the essential parties and we all aren't dead. Social Distancing Is a hoax. Use common sense and don't leave the house if your sick!!!!!

If 50% of parents could afford to take off work when their children had the flu/cold, and sent them to school because they can't afford child-care. We would all be less sick.

The funny thing about this,... They say kids can't get It and we shut down a Country?

We all done lost our minds.

They say kids are only carriers... Well murders are carriers of weapons too and the murder rate is essentially higher than this virus could give us. Keep the 2nd amendment... lose the dumbass social (we don't want rioting/politicing/ gatherings.) distancing laws.

We wanna be like XI. Not I, said the blind man!

 

[Circa]

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It's actual Insanity when you start to understand how many musicians are tied to politicians and dirt money...

 

[Circa]

Don't be a clown. I said some of them are really enjoying their newfound powers during a pandemic. Fining people for going outside? Requiring people to wear masks in public? Here in PA, Dairy Queen is open but the liquor stores are closed. It's moronic, and the sad part is these "steps" are now being elevated even though we're on the back end of this thing.

Ever notice that these politicians are completely unaffected by the policies they put in place? Has that reality ever hit you?

DUDE!.... I completely agree.(Reps) I didn't read your post as complaining either. I read It and asked myself: what Is really going on.
People are followers, (obviously) and have counted on the Government to lead in so many factions of life that when an odd situation occurs the smart ones fall first... Then the real average everyday citizen follows.

People worry about their next bill, whether It be getting nails/ haircut or any weird human habit and the bills aren't being paid to keep lights on. I'm sure people are worrying about normal things and It's egregious.

 

[Circa]

The models have been shown to be flawed but the premise of "flattening the curve" with social distancing is universally agreed upon. If you don't support some sort of lockdown then you think the entire world has it wrong save a handful of outlier countries. OK.. I guess. Everyone can have an opinion, but it doesn't make it right.

No It hasn't. it has been a scare tactic and that Is abhorrent.
If I can't go to the grocery store without having my Temperature taken, then the issue remains the problem and you as well as many others are willing to give up freedom over the technicality of being alive.

Safety in the workforce started ramping up significantly after 9/11. I'm happy my job Is safer. But it's not that much safer because people are ignorant these days, comparatively. (They think they already know everything)

Bush Senior talked about 1 World Order 30 years ago. The puzzle remains and we are all sheep being herded.

(being alive in this day and age Is a technicality If you watch mainstream media)

 

[Circa]

Don't you know this pandemic was created by the Hollywood elite so they could make a blockbuster film about this? They already have three sequels planned after the release of the first.

Yep. I know you think everything ya ain't heard from FOX/CNN Is Bullshit. I'm a follower too.

I guess we all should just say 'fuck It, government Is the savior' like the Germans, Japanese, Italians and all of the other propagandists from 70 years ago...
No matter what. We are In A Very Scary Time.

 

[Irishize]

COVID-19 Antibody Seroprevalence in Santa Clara County, California


https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.14.20062463v1


This gives covid-19 a fatality rate of about 0.12% per serology detected infection.

This is probably lower than worst-hit areas (e.g. Lombardy, NYC), higher than many others (almost all countries near the equator). Time will tell how close to average it is.

 

[Irishize]

Does a High COVID-19 Viral Load Make You Sicker?


https://www.thedailybeast.com/does-a-high-covid-19-viral-load-make-you-sicker

 

[PerthDomer]

The santa clara data needs to be put in context. They had a little over 1% positives... then extrapolated that based on county demographics to get to 2 to 4%. The sest is between 98.3 and 99.9% specific... if it were 99% specific over half the positives would be predicted to be false positives. Santa Clara is also quite healthy as a county and has access to a really good health system. It was also the hardest hit northern california county.

My take is another sudden reopening would get us right back to where we came from.

 

[InKellyWeTrust]

No It hasn't. it has been a scare tactic and that Is abhorrent.
If I can't go to the grocery store without having my Temperature taken, then the issue remains the problem and you as well as many others are willing to give up freedom over the technicality of being alive.

Safety in the workforce started ramping up significantly after 9/11. I'm happy my job Is safer. But it's not that much safer because people are ignorant these days, comparatively. (They think they already know everything)

Bush Senior talked about 1 World Order 30 years ago. The puzzle remains and we are all sheep being herded.

(being alive in this day and age Is a technicality If you watch mainstream media)

I'm not sure I entirely understand your point. But here is some information on viruses in general and COVID 19 specifically:

1) viruses require a host to replicate. Most are not viable outside a host for very long.
2) respiratory viruses (eg coronavirus) are transmitted via respiratory droplets
3) they are usually very transmissible. An average person with COVID 19 will transmit the virus to 3 other people IF NO PRECAUTIONS ARE TAKEN
4) because they are very contagious they travel through populations quickly, especially if that population has no herd immunity. A human immune system had never seen COVID 19 until 4 months ago. In other words, we have no herd immunity to this virus at all.
5) for math nerds, 3x3x3x3x3... once you reach critical mass this starts to snowball over entire populations quickly.
6) changing gears, most viruses dont "like" to kill their hosts or even make them quickly severely ill. This would hurt its viability (see point 1) and transmillability (see point 3). They like to find a "happy medium" - cause illness but continue to transmit
7) Viruses are usually very adaptable. They shift their genetic material very deftly to keep themselves more viable.
8) COVID 19 is the perfect nightmare. It has shifted its RNA just enough to find the ideal host in humans. Causing the average infected to be mildly ill for the first several days, allowing us to go about our business with "a little cold". Sneezing and coughing and snotting all over, spreading those respiratory droplets for our friends to inhale. Then, after its need's are met (ie it's been transmitted to 3 other people perpetuating its viability to more hosts), only then does the illness for the host really start.
9) 7-14 days after symptoms first appear, some hosts (the humans) will get critically sick with a disease called ARDS (and more). Basically the lungs lose almost all capacity to exchange oxygen. These people (5-10% of those infected) need ICU beds with ventilators and breathing tubes to keep them alive. But some wont live. Somewhere between 1-4% of its hosts (infected humans) die of overwhelming respiratory disease called ARDS (and more).

IF we all do our job and stay away from each other - instead of 3 people getting that virus from some snotty ass, hopefully none will. If that number gets below 1 for long enough this asshole virus dies.

So, in conclusion: SOCIAL DISTANCING! It's not made up to control our freedom. It's based on f***ing science.

Everyone is entitled to their own opinion. Stick with your oppressive conspiracy theories. I'll stick with the science. It's fine if we dont agree. If you think this entire pandemic is meant only to limit our freedoms I'm not sure we can have an honest discussion about it.

Also, we've done a great job in general (once our country actually started taking this thing seriously) and we still have 35k deaths in basically 1 month. Unimitigated it absolutely would be much higher. How much? I dont think anyone can honestly say but nobody is trying to limit freedoms, just protecting the masses from eachother. I sincerely hope we can all go back to business as usual and have no further spikes but I just dont see it.

 

[Circa]

I'm not sure I entirely understand your point. But here is some information on viruses in general and COVID 19 specifically:

1) viruses require a host to replicate. Most are not viable outside a host for very long.
2) respiratory viruses (eg coronavirus) are transmitted via respiratory droplets
3) they are usually very transmissible. An average person with COVID 19 will transmit the virus to 3 other people IF NO PRECAUTIONS ARE TAKEN
4) because they are very contagious they travel through populations quickly, especially if that population has no herd immunity. A human immune system had never seen COVID 19 until 4 months ago. In other words, we have no herd immunity to this virus at all.
5) for math nerds, 3x3x3x3x3... once you reach critical mass this starts to snowball over entire populations quickly.
6) changing gears, most viruses dont "like" to kill their hosts or even make them quickly severely ill. This would hurt its viability (see point 1) and transmillability (see point 3). They like to find a "happy medium" - cause illness but continue to transmit
7) Viruses are usually very adaptable. They shift their genetic material very deftly to keep themselves more viable.
8) COVID 19 is the perfect nightmare. It has shifted its RNA just enough to find the ideal host in humans. Causing the average infected to be mildly ill for the first several days, allowing us to go about our business with "a little cold". Sneezing and coughing and snotting all over, spreading those respiratory droplets for our friends to inhale. Then, after its need's are met (ie it's been transmitted to 3 other people perpetuating its viability to more hosts), only then does the illness for the host really start.
9) 7-14 days after symptoms first appear, some hosts (the humans) will get critically sick with a disease called ARDS (and more). Basically the lungs lose almost all capacity to exchange oxygen. These people (5-10% of those infected) need ICU beds with ventilators and breathing tubes to keep them alive. But some wont live. Somewhere between 1-4% of its hosts (infected humans) die of overwhelming respiratory disease called ARDS (and more).

IF we all do our job and stay away from each other - instead of 3 people getting that virus from some snotty ass, hopefully none will. If that number gets below 1 for long enough this asshole virus dies.

So, in conclusion: SOCIAL DISTANCING! It's not made up to control our freedom. It's based on f***ing science.

Everyone is entitled to their own opinion. Stick with your oppressive conspiracy theories. I'll stick with the science. It's fine if we dont agree. If you think this entire pandemic is meant only to limit our freedoms I'm not sure we can have an honest discussion about it.

Also, we've done a great job in general (once our country actually started taking this thing seriously) and we still have 35k deaths in basically 1 month. Unimitigated it absolutely would be much higher. How much? I dont think anyone can honestly say but nobody is trying to limit freedoms, just protecting the masses from eachother. I sincerely hope we can all go back to business as usual and have no further spikes but I just dont see it.

ok. I guess we'll all die of memes and thought provoking processes.

I'm not Interested in copy/paste information that everyone has already read and heard.
Take care of yourself and your families. I'm not going to run for office, so I'm not that interested in changing your mind. All I'm curious about Is,... If people listen to all sides when shit splatters from the fan blowing your way.... Why do you think things have gone sideways for years?

We are In an amazing time. I love the fact that you responded with some heart. What bothers me Is that you seem attached to your belief. I personally can go both ways If scientific facts prove the Fauche/Brixe BS. This has been political from the beginning.
I promise you, In 2 months when things start becoming more cut throat...(they will because of the economy), we shall see.

I don't think you took things off of a page, I'm pretty sure you have listened and thought that the words are law.

Peace! No social ambiguity

 

[Legacy]

First-wave COVID-19 transmissibility and severity in China outside Hubei after control measures, and second-wave scenario planning: a modelling impact assessment

Background
As of March 18, 2020, 13 415 confirmed cases and 120 deaths related to coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in mainland China, outside Hubei province—the epicentre of the outbreak—had been reported. Since late January, massive public health interventions have been implemented nationwide to contain the outbreak. We provide an impact assessment of the transmissibility and severity of COVID-19 during the first wave in mainland Chinese locations outside Hubei.

Methods
We estimated the instantaneous reproduction number (Rt) of COVID-19 in Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Wenzhou, and the ten Chinese provinces that had the highest number of confirmed COVID-19 cases; and the confirmed case-fatality risk (cCFR) in Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Wenzhou, and all 31 Chinese provinces. We used a susceptible–infectious–recovered model to show the potential effects of relaxing containment measures after the first wave of infection, in anticipation of a possible second wave.

Findings
In all selected cities and provinces, the Rt decreased substantially since Jan 23, when control measures were implemented, and have since remained below 1. The cCFR outside Hubei was 0·98% (95% CI 0·82–1·16), which was almost five times lower than that in Hubei (5·91%, 5·73–6·09). Relaxing the interventions (resulting in Rt >1) when the epidemic size was still small would increase the cumulative case count exponentially as a function of relaxation duration, even if aggressive interventions could subsequently push disease prevalence back to the baseline level.
(Cont)

Excerpts:

Although the aggressive countermeasures appear to have reduced the number of reported cases, the absence of herd immunity against COVID-19 suggests that counts could easily resurge when these interventions are relaxed, as business, factory operations, and schools resume.

As COVID-19 continues to spread globally, escalating case importation from overseas or residual infected seeds within China (despite the almost 2-month-long containment policy nationwide), coupled with the resumption of economic activities, a second wave of COVID-19 appears probable. Thus, we simulated the potential consequences of relaxing restrictions in anticipation of a recrudescence of infections.

Discussion
The findings from our modelling impact assessment suggest that the comprehensive package of non-pharmaceutical interventions China undertook, including social distancing and population behavioural change, has substantially reduced transmissibility of COVID-19 across the country. The daily number of local COVID-19 cases has dropped substantially to nearly zero in areas outside Hubei since late February; however, a second wave of COVID-19 transmission is possible because of viral reintroduction (particularly international importation—eg, from Italy or elsewhere in Europe, Iran, USA, and other rapidly burgeoning secondary epicentres22) that has been exponentially increasing since March, 2020, as well as viral transmissibility that might rebound with the gradual resumption of economic activities, and thus normal levels of social mixing. Close monitoring of the instantaneous effective reproduction number and real-time tuning of policy interventions to ensure a manageable second wave remains the over-riding public health priority.

 

[SonofOahu]

I think this is what you were referencing Oahu. See this is the law of unintended consequences - financial strain on the entire medical system b/c everything has been shut down for an underwhelming pandemic. Outside of a few smelly sardine packed urban areas in crappy climates - not much to write home about.

Forgive me, I frequently associate hospital admins with MDs who haven't touched a patient for decades and rotate between staff meetings while technically responsible as the "supervising physician". Those folks love to feel important and make decisions that tend to cause more harm than good, IMO (which I am entitled to have). Frequently people in medicine (not immune to Peter principle despite genius MDs involved) are promoting to admin roles b/c they can do less harm or they just want it while everyone else just wants to see patients. Now let me snowflake this and say - of course not all are bad, there are plenty of good MD admins out there!

Bankrupted by COVID is not just for restaurants and unwashed idiots now is it! Fauci has made this bed where our entire healthcare system could be in financial ruin due to shut down of "non-essential" services and reducing demand across the board due to people afraid to leave their house. Novel concept on an impromptu radio interview this AM - office seeing well patient in AM and sick patient in PM - holy smokes is that allowed! Lady says they are slow - and the dumb interviewer finishes with thanking her knowing they are double busy right now - wtf she called in to win a prize at 9:30AM and just said they are trying to stay busy- not busy AF.

Hospitals and doctor offices have always been a great place to go to get sick or sicker -IMO. My parents are feeling pretty good now - haven't been going to near daily doctor visits b/c suddenly their picayune self afflicted complaints don't seem so important. Not getting sick from waiting rooms and not dealing with never ending modifications to their daily drug cocktails. They go to the doctor for attention, something to do more often than not.

I'm a business guy, not an MD. I won't even argue that MDs can make bad administrators. Not because they want to save money, quite the opposite. Many times they push for unnecessary expenses to benefit some, not all, patients.

Again, I cannot stress this fact enough: the reason why it seems like COVID-19 is a non-event is because of the extent to which we shut down the country. There are two reasons why systems had to shut down their elective procedures:

1. To conserve PPE
2. To mitigate infection exposure

There's also the fact that they wanted to open up as much space as possible, but there were only a few cities who saw that level of activity. Everywhere else in the US rightfully shut it down before we hit Italy status. Those who are sitting smug right now should hold their breath (both literally and figuratively) as they push for a too-early reopening.

 

[SonofOahu]

The stupid part is that it wasn't mandated from the start. It's perfectly reasonable to wear a mask. Talk about a misinformation campaign our media and officials were fed to believe that even home made masks offered no protection at the beginning.

I think it wasn't mandated from the start because of the PPE shortages, hence all the donations and focus on getting PPE. But, the actual medical professionals on IE can speak more to why the messaging has switched.

This. At the time, there were catastrophic shortages of PPE. Now, there are still shortages, just not as bad. Given a run of positives or rule-outs, we'll face shortages again. China is spitting out a lot of PPE, but not everything is quality. We've tried the KN95s, and everyone has been failing the fit test. There's an article saying that Missouri was sending back an order of 45,000 KN95 respirators.

The homemade masks are not meant to protect you from the virus, they are there to protect others from you. The cloth masks are basically a social-contract saying that you are protecting those around you from your droplets, while they protect you from theirs. That's why everyone is supposed to wear those masks.

 

[SonofOahu]

Don't be a clown. I said some of them are really enjoying their newfound powers during a pandemic. Fining people for going outside? Requiring people to wear masks in public? Here in PA, Dairy Queen is open but the liquor stores are closed. It's moronic, and the sad part is these "steps" are now being elevated even though we're on the back end of this thing.

Ever notice that these politicians are completely unaffected by the policies they put in place? Has that reality ever hit you?

The government has to do what they have to do because people are stupid enough to think this whole thing is stupid...

 

[InKellyWeTrust]

ok. I guess we'll all die of memes and thought provoking processes.

I'm not Interested in copy/paste information that everyone has already read and heard.
Take care of yourself and your families. I'm not going to run for office, so I'm not that interested in changing your mind. All I'm curious about Is,... If people listen to all sides when shit splatters from the fan blowing your way.... Why do you think things have gone sideways for years?

We are In an amazing time. I love the fact that you responded with some heart. What bothers me Is that you seem attached to your belief. I personally can go both ways If scientific facts prove the Fauche/Brixe BS. This has been political from the beginning.
I promise you, In 2 months when things start becoming more cut throat...(they will because of the economy), we shall see.

I don't think you took things off of a page, I'm pretty sure you have listened and thought that the words are law.

Peace! No social ambiguity

Most of this is copied and pasted, from a post I made on Facebook 1 month ago. Like most physicians I have taken many, many science courses over my life including virology, microbiology (3x), pathology, human pathophysiology, biochemistry, organic chemistry, etc, etc. I'm not saying this to prove anything, but to say I have read and read and read many scientific texts. If I listen, I listen to the scientists. I don't care about the politics much, really, I don't. And if you think my mind was set from the start, it wasn't. Go read the first few pages of this thread. I made several posts downplaying the likely severity of this before more information was available from other countries besides China. Once more data was available I realized how wrong I was. I'm big enough to admit when I'm wrong about something, trust me, I've been wrong about many things over my life. But I feel strongly now after reading many credible articles about this thing.

 

[TorontoGold]

The government has to do what they have to do because people are stupid enough to think this whole thing is stupid...

Seriously, if the people tuned out both sides (ie this is not a democratic hoax! Or Joe flip flopping on travel restrictions) and just listened to the scientists and doctors they would be better served.

 

[Polish Leppy 22]

The government has to do what they have to do because people are stupid enough to think this whole thing is stupid...

a) you should clarify whether you're referring to the feds or state gov's. I understand the feds had to shut things down, but some of these governors' actions have gone too far. And they're enjoying it.

b) some of those people who think some of their freedoms being taken away are in areas/states unaffected by covid19.

c) the economic and mental health effects from this are still not being discussed

 

[Greenore]

Seriously, if the people tuned out both sides (ie this is not a democratic hoax! Or Joe flip flopping on travel restrictions) and just listened to the scientists and doctors they would be better served.

I'm not deliberately trying to be a contrarian, but the following article exposes a problem.

https://nationalpost.com/opinion/co...582-24f5-4b2e-b35a-ce607909f341#comments-area

Cheers and Go Irish!!

 

[TorontoGold]

a) you should clarify whether you're referring to the feds or state gov's. I understand the feds had to shut things down, but some of these governors' actions have gone too far. And they're enjoying it.

b) some of those people who think some of their freedoms being taken away are in areas/states unaffected by covid19.

c) the economic and mental health effects from this are still not being discussed

Anytime you hear a governor speak you can really hear the enjoyment of them taking away things from their citizens.

You have access to the information of what's happened around the world, right? Go look at what happened in South Korea. People went to church from different areas of the country and the brought it back to their respective town. There's complete parallels there to what happened with the people playing army dressup in Michigan. If those people spread it to their small rural towns, was it worth it?

The economic and mental health effects are literally all over the news. If you hold investments you're bound to run into numerous articles. If you follow liberal or leftist people on twitter, you'll get your dose of mental health articles. You can't stick your head in the sand and claim that people aren't talking about something. As Circa has said multiple times, do you own research/reading. It's not up to someone else to educate you.