COVID-19

[Irishize]

The santa clara data needs to be put in context. They had a little over 1% positives... then extrapolated that based on county demographics to get to 2 to 4%. The sest is between 98.3 and 99.9% specific... if it were 99% specific over half the positives would be predicted to be false positives. Santa Clara is also quite healthy as a county and has access to a really good health system. It was also the hardest hit northern california county.

My take is another sudden reopening would get us right back to where we came from.

Agreed but it’s more insightful than the woefully wrong IMHE model.

This is why I haven’t been a proponent of another sudden reopening. I’m more of the mind of a gradual based on individual’s co-morbidities.

For those that want to keep the economy shut down “until further notice”, I want to hear your rationale for doing that up to one year or more b/c not only is that genocide...it just won’t happen in the United States.

If we agree that it’ll be at least one year from today that we have a vaccine, the public policy needs to focus on taking care of the afflicted and the vulnerable while also putting a plan into place to start the economy back up on a tiered basis.

Otherwise we’ve just wasted the first six moths of 2020 b/c it didn’t prevent deaths as much as it delayed them and it guarantees another spike. Practically every promise that gov’t officials (incl POTUS) & media have made have been wrong thus far.

 

[TorontoGold]

Agreed but it’s more insightful than the woefully wrong IMHE model.

This is why I haven’t been a proponent of another sudden reopening. I’m more of the mind of a gradual based on individual’s co-morbidities.

For those that want to keep the economy shut down “until further notice”, I want to hear your rationale for doing that up to one year or more b/c not only is that genocide...it just won’t happen in the United States.

If we agree that it’ll be at least one year from today that we have a vaccine, the public policy needs to focus on taking care of the afflicted and the vulnerable while also putting a plan into place to start the economy back up on a tiered basis.

Otherwise we’ve just wasted the first six moths of 2020 b/c it didn’t prevent deaths as much as it delayed them and it guarantees another spike. Practically every promise that gov’t officials (incl POTUS) & media have made have been wrong thus far.

This is a fairly good article that provides some positives on reopening back to normal gradually. https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/covid-19-bc-modelling-data-1.5535716

Essentially, it shows that after a month of being at the peak and on the down slope you can return to 60% normalcy pretty easily.

 

[Irishize]

I'm not deliberately trying to be a contrarian, but the following article exposes a problem.

https://nationalpost.com/opinion/co...582-24f5-4b2e-b35a-ce607909f341#comments-area

Cheers and Go Irish!!

You are right...and no one wants to address said problem

 

[Greenore]

You are right...and no one wants to address said problem

LOL. I'm not right just confused. I believe in science and medicine. But which scientists and doctors are correct?

Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice...

Cheers and Go Irish!!

 

[Irishize]

This is a fairly good article that provides some positives on reopening back to normal gradually. https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/covid-19-bc-modelling-data-1.5535716

Essentially, it shows that after a month of being at the peak and on the down slope you can return to 60% normalcy pretty easily.

Agreed. My hope is that the shutdown from March through whatever buys us enough time to invest in overstock of PPE & ventilators. In addition, it allows more time to test remdesivir, Calquence & others in the treatment of COVID_19.

The stat that has been consistent is the one showing that the overwhelming majority of COVID-19 deaths have been in people over 45 w/ co-morbidities. That include NYC and other hotspots. The human body is a beautiful thing...if you take care of it. Most American adults don’t, making them vulnerable.

I’ll be redundant (b/c this is a message board so it’s required) and state that no one is calling for a “sudden re-opening” of the economy. You can bathe yourself in scientific smugness all day long (at least when it aligns w/ your beliefs) but you still have to acknowledge the catastrophic effects of collapsing the United States economy b/c it WILL lead to more deaths that were not the direct result of COVID-19. Closing ones eyes and plugging ones ears will not prevent it from effecting the folks in their ivory towers.

 

[Irishize]

LOL. I'm not right just confused. I believe in science and medicine. But which scientists and doctors are correct?

Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice...

Cheers and Go Irish!!

Correct.

I don’t believe there’s a person on this board that doesn’t believe in science. It’s the scientists that throw a wrench in the works. Most are doing the right thing and going on the data they have. The others have agendas for one reason or another. Playing the “science” card is not a trump card (no pun intended).

 

[TorontoGold]

Agreed. My hope is that the shutdown from March through whatever buys us enough time to invest in overstock of PPE & ventilators. In addition, it allows more time to test remdesivir, Calquence & others in the treatment of COVID_19.

The stat that has been consistent is the one showing that the overwhelming majority of COVID-19 deaths have been in people over 45 w/ co-morbidities. That include NYC and other hotspots. The human body is a beautiful thing...if you take care of it. Most American adults don’t, making them vulnerable.

I’ll be redundant (b/c this is a message board so it’s required) and state that no one is calling for a “sudden re-opening” of the economy. You can bathe yourself in scientific smugness all day long (at least when it aligns w/ your beliefs) but you still have to acknowledge the catastrophic effects of collapsing the United States economy b/c it WILL lead to more deaths that were not the direct result of COVID-19. Closing ones eyes and plugging ones ears will not prevent it from effecting the folks in their ivory towers.

Agree with the sentiment of the first two paragraphs of your post. I'm not asking this to be a dink, but is there predictive models or forecasts that show deaths from the economy being shut down for an extended time? Theres roughly 110-120 suicides a day in the US compared to the 2,500 deaths we saw from COVID in the US yesterday. I agree with the idea of getting back to work, but it would interesting to see some data to support the claim of "more people will die from the shutdown than the virus".

 

[Irishize]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Chilling footage from Maryland, US where hundreds are lined up to get a free bag of food or $30 voucher from store. <br><br>Lines wrapping around parking lot and building itself, show extent of desperation: <a href="https://t.co/o1fppWHvA4">pic.twitter.com/o1fppWHvA4</a></p>— Joyce Karam (@Joyce_Karam) <a href="https://twitter.com/Joyce_Karam/status/1251271911088295936?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 17, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

 

[Irishize]

Agree with the sentiment of the first two paragraphs of your post. I'm not asking this to be a dink, but is there predictive models or forecasts that show deaths from the economy being shut down for an extended time? Theres roughly 110-120 suicides a day in the US compared to the 2,500 deaths we saw from COVID in the US yesterday. I agree with the idea of getting back to work, but it would interesting to see some data to support the claim of "more people will die from the shutdown than the virus".

I’ll try to link the data but IIRC the US accounts for 37K deaths for every 1% drop in unemployment. It’s not just suicides (I’m sure you know that). A physician who was helping on the front lines in Indiana had a patient who was in need of a bypass. He delayed it b/c it wasn’t deemed essential. Patient died.

GI docs perform “non-essential” colonoscopies on a daily basis until now. So if a patient has a malignant mass, it will continue to grow until they can get the scope. Same for ovarian cancer. Most of those poor ladies dont discover their condition until they’re Stage 3/4....now it’s all but guaranteed that.

If you’re a head of household and you lose your livelihood b/c it was deemed non-essential, you are now or will be struggling to afford food, shelter & medicine for your family. Of those three, which one do you think rates a distant third when money is scarce?

Thankfully, none of us on this board lived through the Great Depression but this is being forecast to be worse than that if it continues. If one thinks the US Treasury can simply print more money to deliver to the displaced, you may want to google “Weimar Republic” or “hyperinflation”. For those that love to call Trump a Nazi, wait until you read how Hitler came to power.

 

[Irishize]

Agree with the sentiment of the first two paragraphs of your post. I'm not asking this to be a dink, but is there predictive models or forecasts that show deaths from the economy being shut down for an extended time? Theres roughly 110-120 suicides a day in the US compared to the 2,500 deaths we saw from COVID in the US yesterday. I agree with the idea of getting back to work, but it would interesting to see some data to support the claim of "more people will die from the shutdown than the virus".

How have those predictive models & forecasts for this pandemic worked out? I’m not trying to be dismissive of the statisticians & epidemiologists b/c they can only forecast w/ the data they have (which is minimal), but they’ve been woefully wrong from the Imperial College (which had zero controls leading it to scare the hell out of everyone before the author admitted the mistake) to the currently reviewer IMHE model which the Trump Admin has seemed to coalesce around.

 

[Irishize]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Nancy Pelosi standing in front of a $24,000 fridge saying how proud she is cutting off small businesses struggling in this crisis. <br><br> <a href="https://t.co/oUkd1YqWay">https://t.co/oUkd1YqWay</a> <a href="https://t.co/inYKFlcJlj">pic.twitter.com/inYKFlcJlj</a></p>— Comfortably Smug (@ComfortablySmug) <a href="https://twitter.com/ComfortablySmug/status/1250530831547891713?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 15, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

 

[Bluto]

So I’ve given the whole the Feds acted as soon as they could based on the information available and the Chinese duped us all theories a bit more thought. For me the biggest hole in this line of reasoning is the US intelligence apparatus. I have a hard time believing that the CIA, Military and Homeland Security folks were completely unaware of what was going on in China long before the story started blowing up in the press. One piece of evidence that would support this notion is that according to the Nation the Pentagon in 2017 put together an Influenza Pandemic and Infectious Disease response plan that predicted pretty much everything that has played out. Now, I think there is a distinct possibility that there was a failure to synthesize the info and or even pay attention to it as it was coming out.

 

[Irish YJ]

So I’ve given the whole the Feds acted as soon as they could based on the information available and the Chinese duped us all theories a bit more thought. For me the biggest hole in this line of reasoning is the US intelligence apparatus. I have a hard time believing that the CIA, Military and Homeland Security folks were completely unaware of what was going on in China long before the story started blowing up in the press. One piece of evidence that would support this notion is that according to the Nation the Pentagon in 2017 put together an Influenza Pandemic and Infectious Disease response plan that predicted pretty much everything that has played out. Now, I think there is a distinct possibility that there was a failure to synthesize the info and or even pay attention to it as it was coming out.

I'd agree with the bolded to an extent, but I also think some of the voices may have been given less credence due to the WHO playing it down and more or less carrying China's water. I mean hindsight is great, but before now, most thought we could actually trust the WHO on matters like this, even though they have questionable past in some areas.

Honestly I'm shocked a bit still that China would lie and cover up as much as they did given the potential global impact. And on top of that, the WHO shitting the bed as bad as they did is just extreme to me too. If you look at the entire timeline of facts, there's no way anyone can be intellectually honest and not want blood from both China and the WHO.

 

[TorontoGold]

How have those predictive models & forecasts for this pandemic worked out? I’m not trying to be dismissive of the statisticians & epidemiologists b/c they can only forecast w/ the data they have (which is minimal), but they’ve been woefully wrong from the Imperial College (which had zero controls leading it to scare the hell out of everyone before the author admitted the mistake) to the currently reviewer IMHE model which the Trump Admin has seemed to coalesce around.

Yes, the novel coronavirus models have had flaws. Dismissing all other forecasts because of a couple flawed ones isn't a rational approach.

I'm speaking more to the numerous models that a rational government would create to forecast numerous scenarios. I've been critical (lol very critical) on the Trump admin, but I truly believe people like Navarro and Mnuchin have had teams look into the economic impact well before the shit hit the fan.

 

[Greenore]

I think I posted this quote to the forum several years ago:

"People tend to use statistics like a drunk uses a lamp post... for support rather than illumination".

I don't know the author.

Only re-posting due to subject relevance.

Cheers and Go Irish!!

 

[Sea Turtle]

Stunning if true

https://www.redstate.com/elizabeth-...ten-countries-and-makes-a-stunning-discovery/

 

[Irishize]

Yes, the novel coronavirus models have had flaws. Dismissing all other forecasts because of a couple flawed ones isn't a rational approach.

I'm speaking more to the numerous models that a rational government would create to forecast numerous scenarios. I've been critical (lol very critical) on the Trump admin, but I truly believe people like Navarro and Mnuchin have had teams look into the economic impact well before the shit hit the fan.

No one said to “dismiss all other forecasts...”...nobody. But to rely on the ones that have been proven flawed and wildly erroneous is beyond ignorant.

Everyone set aside what you think about Marco Rubio’s politics and listen to his remarks. In this situation all options are bad...for the sake of America, we have to pick the least bad option. To further set aside politics (b/c this isn’t’ the appropriate thread but I know some people jump to conclusions), Rubio’s comments were re-tweeted by an MSNBC commentator.



<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">This is genuinely refreshing. <a href="https://t.co/l6FizbWCIe">https://t.co/l6FizbWCIe</a></p>— Noah Rothman (@NoahCRothman) <a href="https://twitter.com/NoahCRothman/status/1250464397027348480?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 15, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

 

[BGIF]

I think I posted this quote to the forum several years ago:

"People tend to use statistics like a drunk uses a lamp post... for support rather than illumination".

I don't know the author.

Only re-posting due to subject relevance.

Cheers and Go Irish!!

Andrew Lang

 

[Greenore]

Andrew Lang

Thanks BGIF!

IMHO, so profound and equally humbling.

Cheers and Go Irish!!

 

[InKellyWeTrust]

1) you have to get the number of active infections down to a fraction of what they are now. This would likely be state to state, city to city decisions because of the diversity of our country's demographics
2) to be able to know the true number of active infections we have to be able to broaden the scope of testing to include ALL those with compatible symptoms. This would need to be perhaps 500k to a million per day, at least to start. The turnaround time also needs to improve significantly and be more homogeneous across our population.
3) there would need to be some sort of practical way to contact trace and test close contacts of positive cases in order to shut down local and regional outbreaks before they are unmanageable by individual quarantines alone.
4) a reliable antibody test to, at minimum, be used in healthcare and essential jobs with close contact to hundreds of people per day.
5) not a requirement but something that would dramatically improve our situation is an evidence-based, effective treatment preferably one that would decrease need for hospitalizations

Bottom line - more testing, ability to trace contacts that wouldn't infringe on our constitution, and well on the backend of the curve. Also, each state/metro area needs to make the decision for themselves based off all the above. BUT, there needs to be country wide parameters in place because we dont want one boneheaded mayor or governor making a poor decision risking the work and effort of all the others across the country.

No one said to “dismiss all other forecasts...”...nobody. But to rely on the ones that have been proven flawed and wildly erroneous is beyond ignorant.

Everyone set aside what you think about Marco Rubio’s politics and listen to his remarks. In this situation all options are bad...for the sake of America, we have to pick the least bad option. To further set aside politics (b/c this isn’t’ the appropriate thread but I know some people jump to conclusions), Rubio’s comments were re-tweeted by an MSNBC commentator.



<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">This is genuinely refreshing. <a href="https://t.co/l6FizbWCIe">https://t.co/l6FizbWCIe</a></p>— Noah Rothman (@NoahCRothman) <a href="https://twitter.com/NoahCRothman/status/1250464397027348480?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 15, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

I agree with Rubio which is outlined in a post I shared from last week (above). The main problem with this - the infrastructure needed to make his 1st and 2nd point a reality. We aren't close to testing numbers that would allow a safe reopening in most places. And the contact tracing? I've heard nothing concrete yet as to how federal, state, or local governments plan to do it, much less be in position to fully role it out. I hope we get lucky and the virus decides it hates warm weather.

 

[Bluto]

https://www.foxbusiness.com/money/stimulus-intended-to-help-coronavirus-ravaged-small-businesses-instead-rewarding-hedge-funds-brokerages

"The banker says he spoke to FOX Business because he is concerned about the inequality gap involving the pandemic stimulus and the social unrest it could create. He said the spending being directed at Wall Street through various Federal Reserve programs as well as the hedge fund loophole in the loan program dwarfs the stimulus designed for Main Street businesses."

Capitalism! Thanks guys...FML...LoL

 

[Bluto]

No one said to “dismiss all other forecasts...”...nobody. But to rely on the ones that have been proven flawed and wildly erroneous is beyond ignorant.

Everyone set aside what you think about Marco Rubio’s politics and listen to his remarks. In this situation all options are bad...for the sake of America, we have to pick the least bad option. To further set aside politics (b/c this isn’t’ the appropriate thread but I know some people jump to conclusions), Rubio’s comments were re-tweeted by an MSNBC commentator.



<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">This is genuinely refreshing. <a href="https://t.co/l6FizbWCIe">https://t.co/l6FizbWCIe</a></p>— Noah Rothman (@NoahCRothman) <a href="https://twitter.com/NoahCRothman/status/1250464397027348480?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 15, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

So, Rubio crashed and burned in his attempt to be president largely over a failed attempt at drinking bottled water. Meanwhile....f*#!in hell.

 

[Ndaccountant]

https://www.foxbusiness.com/money/stimulus-intended-to-help-coronavirus-ravaged-small-businesses-instead-rewarding-hedge-funds-brokerages

"The banker says he spoke to FOX Business because he is concerned about the inequality gap involving the pandemic stimulus and the social unrest it could create. He said the spending being directed at Wall Street through various Federal Reserve programs as well as the hedge fund loophole in the loan program dwarfs the stimulus designed for Main Street businesses."

Capitalism! Thanks guys...FML...LoL

Any true believer in capitalism agrees this is fd up. Let em fail. Reward with no risk is anti capitalism.

 

[Bluto]

Any true believer in capitalism agrees this is fd up. Let em fail. Reward with no risk is anti capitalism.

I don't have a problem propping up financial institutions per se. As an owner of a small mom and pop restaurant that is getting raked over the coals with whats going however, I'm like thanks for nothing ya pricks. That includes Donald, McConnell and the "radical leftists" Pelosi and Schumer. This whole PPP program has been completely fucked and frankly I'm not surprised that a bunch of investment fund pricks beat me and just about every other mom and pop shop to the punch.

 

[SouthSideChiDomer]

https://www.foxbusiness.com/money/stimulus-intended-to-help-coronavirus-ravaged-small-businesses-instead-rewarding-hedge-funds-brokerages

"The banker says he spoke to FOX Business because he is concerned about the inequality gap involving the pandemic stimulus and the social unrest it could create. He said the spending being directed at Wall Street through various Federal Reserve programs as well as the hedge fund loophole in the loan program dwarfs the stimulus designed for Main Street businesses."

Capitalism! Thanks guys...FML...LoL

This is like the same thing as when the business roundtable changed their definition of a corporation to emphasize a commitment to all stakeholders instead of just shareholders. They've realized that with the current system the game might soon be up because generally they are reducing the purchasing ability of much of their customer base while also causing social unrest that might lead to political upheaval which might not work out well for them. That's a lot of existential risk that the government can't bail them out of.

 

[NorthDakota]

So, Rubio crashed and burned in his attempt to be president largely over a failed attempt at drinking bottled water. Meanwhile....f*#!in hell.

Rubio is a solid RINO. I am a fan of his.

 

[Legacy]

So I’ve given the whole the Feds acted as soon as they could based on the information available and the Chinese duped us all theories a bit more thought. For me the biggest hole in this line of reasoning is the US intelligence apparatus. I have a hard time believing that the CIA, Military and Homeland Security folks were completely unaware of what was going on in China long before the story started blowing up in the press. One piece of evidence that would support this notion is that according to the Nation the Pentagon in 2017 put together an Influenza Pandemic and Infectious Disease response plan that predicted pretty much everything that has played out. Now, I think there is a distinct possibility that there was a failure to synthesize the info and or even pay attention to it as it was coming out.

The detailed and extensive preparation for exactly this type of global pandemic that resulted in legal authority through Congressional Acts with subsequent planning in multiple executive branch agencies began over fifteen years ago. Congress in recognizing the considerable impact to public health, our economy and to our security provided funding for federal snd state preparedness planning and supplies while delineating responsibilities.

Those Acts have been reviewed and renewed with consolidation of authority after 9/11 under DHS with direct involvement of DoD, HHS and the Director of National Intelligence and their experienced deputies and staff. Further lessons were learned about our public health response apparatus functioning after the 2009 swine flu to strengthen our pandemic response.

People with that needed experience and expertise forced out or outside of that carefully planned response structure were raising early alarms. It's accurate to say there were few left who had that ability to synthesize that info or even to appreciate the existential threats the novel coronavirus presented. Navarro, Azar, the National Security Council, the CDC and Fauci among others may have tried to raise alarms - but, as you say, were not paid attention to or dismissed.

It strains credibility to now assign blame for a collosal failure to act in preparation to some outside malevalent force, though totally within character to escape culpability.

Or as Denis Kaufman, who served as head of the Infectious Diseases and Countermeasures Division at the Defense Intelligence Agency from 2014 to 2017, said in The Nation article you mentioned:

"The intelligence community has warned about the threat from highly pathogenic influenza viruses for two decades, at least. They have warned about coronaviruses for at least five years."

"There have been recent pronouncements that the coronavirus pandemic represents an intelligence failure…. It’s letting people who ignored intelligence warnings off the hook.”

 

[irishff1014]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Nancy Pelosi standing in front of a $24,000 fridge saying how proud she is cutting off small businesses struggling in this crisis. <br><br> <a href="https://t.co/oUkd1YqWay">https://t.co/oUkd1YqWay</a> <a href="https://t.co/inYKFlcJlj">pic.twitter.com/inYKFlcJlj</a></p>— Comfortably Smug (@ComfortablySmug) <a href="https://twitter.com/ComfortablySmug/status/1250530831547891713?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 15, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

A full trash bag has more worth than this worthless bitch.

 

[SonofOahu]

a) you should clarify whether you're referring to the feds or state gov's. I understand the feds had to shut things down, but some of these governors' actions have gone too far. And they're enjoying it.

b) some of those people who think some of their freedoms being taken away are in areas/states unaffected by covid19.

c) the economic and mental health effects from this are still not being discussed

A. Trump didn't move fast enough, and his weeble-wobbling between taking things seriously then blowing it off compounds the issue. States can do what makes sense for the whole state, not just for some idiots who don't think the problem can come to them too.

B. Their feelings are, frankly, irrelevant to public health. Allowing some to move freely while locking down others will not work in America. Look at how quickly NY moved to squash that idea, even though that's what China did to Wuhan. It's really all or nothing.

C. I'll say it for the dozen-th time in this forum: If the GOP cared about mental health, they would stop trying to gut Medicaid. Our economy will suffer worse fates, if we keep starting and stopping due to COVID flare-ups. But, hey, I have cash sitting on the sideline, right now, let's do it! Open everything back up so we can go right back to exponential growth rates and market crashes.

 

[SonofOahu]

So I’ve given the whole the Feds acted as soon as they could based on the information available and the Chinese duped us all theories a bit more thought. For me the biggest hole in this line of reasoning is the US intelligence apparatus. I have a hard time believing that the CIA, Military and Homeland Security folks were completely unaware of what was going on in China long before the story started blowing up in the press. One piece of evidence that would support this notion is that according to the Nation the Pentagon in 2017 put together an Influenza Pandemic and Infectious Disease response plan that predicted pretty much everything that has played out. Now, I think there is a distinct possibility that there was a failure to synthesize the info and or even pay attention to it as it was coming out.

Like I said, WE knew that something odd was going on in late December. "We" means personnel at my hospital. There is absolutely no way that the government and its intelligence apparatus did not communicate things.

The simple fact is that intelligence does not currently exist in the White House.