COVID-19

[Irishize]

How the hell did America avoid shutting their economy down through the measles and then polio epidemics?

Homes were quarantined on a regular basis during each of those epidemics. I don’t know how contagious measles or polio were in comparison to COVID-19 but I know which of the three I’d rather be dealing w/ personally and as a large population.

I’m fine w/ projecting infections rates etc based on “ifs, ands or buts” but why not an equal number of projected scenarios about the economy based on shutting it down?

The Great Depression yielded 30+% unemployment. The housing crash led to 10% unemployment and the entire nation flipped out.

Something isn’t right here.

 

[Ndaccountant]

Moody's view of the multi wave approach of economic pain is chilling. IMF is already calling for nations to forgive developing world debt. This will be exceedingly painful economically for some time and there is going to be some tense moments on sovereign debt.

 

[Ndaccountant]

How the hell did America avoid shutting their economy down through the measles and then polio epidemics?

Homes were quarantined on a regular basis during each of those epidemics. I don’t know how contagious measles or polio were in comparison to COVID-19 but I know which of the three I’d rather be dealing w/ personally and as a large population.

I’m fine w/ projecting infections rates etc based on “ifs, ands or buts” but why not an equal number of projected scenarios about the economy based on shutting it down?

The Great Depression yielded 30+% unemployment. The housing crash led to 10% unemployment and the entire nation flipped out.

Something isn’t right here.

Not to be overly dramatic, but the economic pain was going to happen one way or another. The seeds for this were planted over the last 20 years, was just a matter of "what" sprouted it to life. I am not going to say it was some grand illusion, but there is merit in saying all was not what it seemed.

 

[Bluto]

That sucks. Never easy to do. Hope we don’t get to where I have to do the same thing.

The restaurant I’m a partner in laid has off 80% of our staff. Luckily we were set up for to go orders through the majority of the existing app services and the menu has several items that travel well and are good as leftovers. We’ve been able to pivot to that very quickly and relatively successfully.

This is going to wipeout the majority of fine dining establishments in San Francisco and the Bay Area in general.

 

[loomis41973]

How the hell did America avoid shutting their economy down through the measles and then polio epidemics?

Homes were quarantined on a regular basis during each of those epidemics. I don’t know how contagious measles or polio were in comparison to COVID-19 but I know which of the three I’d rather be dealing w/ personally and as a large population.

I’m fine w/ projecting infections rates etc based on “ifs, ands or buts” but why not an equal number of projected scenarios about the economy based on shutting it down?

The Great Depression yielded 30+% unemployment. The housing crash led to 10% unemployment and the entire nation flipped out.

Something isn’t right here.

Geez. The price of manufactured hysteria.

Will post the rest on the political side.

 

[Circa]

How the hell did America avoid shutting their economy down through the measles and then polio epidemics?

Homes were quarantined on a regular basis during each of those epidemics. I don’t know how contagious measles or polio were in comparison to COVID-19 but I know which of the three I’d rather be dealing w/ personally and as a large population.

I’m fine w/ projecting infections rates etc based on “ifs, ands or buts” but why not an equal number of projected scenarios about the economy based on shutting it down?

The Great Depression yielded 30+% unemployment. The housing crash led to 10% unemployment and the entire nation flipped out.

Something isn’t right here.

IDK If going full on at this moment Is appropriate but i agree that we are bordering on lunacy. I wanna start stating numbers from 2009 and 2003 and 1918..... It's a cause that Facebook, Twitter, Reddit.. and so on have deemed inappropriate. People seem to want DRAMA! People love the newest thing to talk about.
This all will reveal itself in due time. It's really annoying tho, I can't use my own ways of protecting myself and others as I have done my whole life.
I just keep thinking of the Doors song: People Are Strange when you're a stranger.

It's as If Social media has made our politicians act like fools. Peace and Love my Friends.

 

[Irish YJ]

Moody's view of the multi wave approach of economic pain is chilling. IMF is already calling for nations to forgive developing world debt. This will be exceedingly painful economically for some time and there is going to be some tense moments on sovereign debt.

IMF can suck balls. We already give away far too much. I'm going to go out on a limb and say China isn't going to forgive debt...

 

[Circa]

The restaurant I’m a partner in laid has off 80% of our staff. Luckily we were set up for to go orders through the majority of the existing app services and the menu has several items that travel well and are good as leftovers. We’ve been able to pivot to that very quickly and relatively successfully.

This is going to wipeout the majority of fine dining establishments in San Francisco and the Bay Area in general.

Do you really believe that? Fine establishments aren't erected with the big bad wolf blowing down the doors. This Is a test of the untested. It's a way that numbers are being created.
I'm worried as well as the next,... but I'm not going to change my life over a bug that has the propensity to scare everyone.

 

[Bluto]

Do you really believe that? Fine establishments aren't erected with the big bad wolf blowing down the doors. This Is a test of the untested. It's a way that numbers are being created.
I'm worried as well as the next,... but I'm not going to change my life over a bug that has the propensity to scare everyone.

I kind of have no idea what this even means.

As to fine dining establishments (many of which are smaller operations believe it or not) yes. Most go out of business within 2-3 years as is but this is crushing even successful and long established places.

The place I’m a partner in is more of a mid price point place and like I said we’re managing healthy to go sales with 4 employees and my partner stepping in 4 nights a week. We’re the only place still open that’s not corporate fast food for a couple square blocks and have received panicked calls from other owners in the City looking for advice on how to transition their POS systems and the like. Sorry to say but if this goes on much longer those places are all toast.

Only thing I have seen that is comparable is the Loma Prieta earthquake.

 

[MNIrishman]

IMF can suck balls. We already give away far too much. I'm going to go out on a limb and say China isn't going to forgive debt...

That debt is how China is consolidating geopolitical power. Given their responsibility for this crisis, they really ought to be paying reparations to... the world. I'm sure the role of the CCP will be swept under the rug, though.

 

[Circa]

I kind of have no idea what this even means.

As to fine dining establishments (many of which are smaller operations believe it or not) yes. Most go out of business within 2-3 years as is but this is crushing even successful and long established places.

So explain to me were the Chef is going? Rent Is a bitch to keep some of these places afloat but If 1 months rent sinks them where they special to begin with?

I could hire the Chef tomorrow... Part time as a laborer and I'm already an Essential worker... They would be too. the paper work starts the day their hired.
This crying wolf and worrying Is something people are reading from the social conundrum 'our' facebook/IG/Twitter has created.

 

[Circa]

I kind of have no idea what this even means.

As to fine dining establishments (many of which are smaller operations believe it or not) yes. Most go out of business within 2-3 years as is but this is crushing even successful and long established places.

The place I’m a partner in is more of a mid price point place and like I said we’re managing healthy to go sales with 4 employees and my partner stepping in 4 nights a week. We’re the only place still open that’s not corporate fast food for a couple square blocks and have received panicked calls from other owners in the City looking for advice on how to transition their POS systems and the like. Sorry to say but if this goes on much longer those places are all toast.

Only thing I have seen that is comparable is the Loma Prieta earthquake.

I apologize for reacting quickly without knowing your personal situation. I can imagine the stress Is over the top. Hopefully this bill that everyone Is talking about will help you and your partners.

 

[Bluto]

So explain to me were the Chef is going? Rent Is a bitch to keep some of these places afloat but If 1 months rent sinks them where they special to begin with?

I could hire the Chef tomorrow... Part time as a laborer and I'm already an Essential worker... They would be too. the paper work starts the day their hired.
This crying wolf and worrying Is something people are reading from the social conundrum your facebook has created.

Lol. Ok.

 

[Irish YJ]

That debt is how China is consolidating geopolitical power. Given their responsibility for this crisis, they really ought to be paying reparations to... the world. I'm sure the role of the CCP will be swept under the rug, though.

They've been basically buying and foreclosing power all over the world while we're giving it away. We've been playing shoots and ladders while they're playing monopoly. I guess we're rich in "good will"....

 

[Ndaccountant]

IMF can suck balls. We already give away far too much. I'm going to go out on a limb and say China isn't going to forgive debt...

Exactly the point. Nations can stop repaying debt owned to China. No matter what, sooner or later there is going to need to be a re-balance. I personally will assume that will not go over well.

 

[Circa]

They've been basically buying and foreclosing power all over the world while we're giving it away. We've been playing shoots and ladders while they're playing monopoly. I guess we're rich in "good will"....

I just listened today to a pretty good Joe Rogan podcast that explains what China has been doing and why.
I'll post It in the Joe Rogan Thread... Courtesy of me.

 

[Irish YJ]

Exactly the point. Nations can stop repaying debt owned to China. No matter what, sooner or later there is going to need to be a re-balance. I personally will assume that will not go over well.

The IMF won't just be asking China. They will absolutely try to shake our tree.

Our IMF quota is by far the highest of any country. We provide over 2.5x the quota China does, and IIRC 17% of the total in the world. We're giving it all away.... China isn't interested in good will. Instead they're getting something for their money.

 

[Irish YJ]

I just listened today to a pretty good Joe Rogan podcast that explains what China has been doing and why.
I'll post It in the Joe Rogan Thread... Courtesy of me.

I'm very familiar with what they've been doing. It's pretty disgusting that we sat back and watched it happen all these years.

 

[Circa]

I'm very familiar with what they've been doing. It's pretty disgusting that we sat back and watched it happen all these years.

I agree completely. It's amazing really.
I usually think I'm alone. Mainly because of the characters i work with. Nobody can relate.

But, I will say there isn't something we can't learn yet...

 

[Ndaccountant]

The IMF won't just be asking China. They will absolutely try to shake our tree.

Our IMF quota is by far the highest of any country. We provide over 2.5x the quota China does, and IIRC 17% of the total in the world. We're giving it all away.... China isn't interested in good will. Instead they're getting something for their money.

Right, but I am speaking to events outside the IMF.

Countries worldwide owed more than 6% of world GDP in debt to China. The bulk of this happens outside the IMF or other traditional mechanisms. Dozens of countries in Africa and CIS owe over 20% of their own country GDP to China. This doesn't even factor in swaps. At some point, most likely in the not too distant future, there will be a significant liquidity crisis, outside of the IMF's views.

There are numerous different ways "to make China pay". In the end, they will end up paying one way or another. But that fact alone will have significant consequences worldwide.

 

[Irishize]

Not to be overly dramatic, but the economic pain was going to happen one way or another. The seeds for this were planted over the last 20 years, was just a matter of "what" sprouted it to life. I am not going to say it was some grand illusion, but there is merit in saying all was not what it seemed.

I’m not talking about economic pain. Everyone knows we are overdue for a recession.

But a complete collapse of the American economy? Over a flu virus?

 

[BeauBenken]

It will take at least another week or 2 before we see the effect of New York's stay at home orders.

Sorry. To be clear, what I had heard was essentially homicides had stooped low enough that actually less people are dying than the usual because people are forced to stay home.


Not that COVID-19 deaths specifically had lowered because of staying at home.

 

[Ndaccountant]

I’m not talking about economic pain. Everyone knows we are overdue for a recession.

But a complete collapse of the American economy? Over a flu virus?

The underlying liquidity issues have been on-going for 6 months, well before this. Any recession was going to trigger a dramatic reversal, no matter the cause.

EDIT...I should be more clear. The Fed's balance sheet grew by 10% in Q4 last year, as repo lending froze. This is nearly $400 Billion. To put that into perspective, that is more than half the amount the Fed purchased with their initial QE launch between Nov of 2008 and Mar of 2009. Of course, the Fed ended up being more over time, but that gives you the appreciation for the magnitude of the action a few months ago.

The scramble for cash happened again this past month, hence the oft reported "margin calls" and the forced liquidation of securities to cover.

 

[BGIF]

WE HAVE A DEAL!

WE HAVE A DEAL!

MARCH 24, 2020 / 5:07 AM / UPDATED 7 MINUTES AGO
U.S. Congress, negotiators reach deal on $2-trillion coronavirus aid package
Richard Cowan, David Morgan

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. senators and Trump administration officials have reached an agreement on a massive economic stimulus bill to alleviate the economic impact of the coronavirus outbreak, White House official Eric Ueland said early on Wednesday.

“We have a deal,” Ueland told reporters after days of negotiations on the package, expected to be worth $2 trillion.

The Senate’s Republican majority leader, Mitch McConnell, was expected to speak on the Senate floor shortly about the agreement.

The text of the pact was not expected to be available until later on Wednesday.

The package had been expected to include a $500 billion fund to help hard-hit industries and a comparable amount for direct payments of up to $3,000 to millions of U.S. families, as well as $350 billion for small-business loans, $250 billion for expanded unemployment aid and $75 billion for hospitals.

It aims to cushion the economic blow from a pandemic that has killed more than 660 people in the United States and sickened more than 50,000, shuttered thousands of businesses, thrown millions out of work and led states to order 100 million people - nearly a third of the population - to stay at home.

The money at stake in the stimulus legislation exceeds what the U.S. government spends on national defense, scientific research, highway construction and other discretionary programs.

 

[Legacy]

India has gone into a "total lockdown" of the entire country of 1.3 billion people for three weeks. PM Modi: "To save India, to save its every citizen, you, your family ... every street, every neighbourhood is being put under lockdown." including all air and train travel, businesses and schools. Health researchers have warned the government that more than a million people in India could be infected with the coronavirus by mid-May.

In the United Kingdom, Oxford infectious disease researchers have determined that the novel coronovirus reached the UK in mid-Jan and may have now infected half of the UK. Boris Johnson will be speaking to the nation about steps above and beyond closing all schools, pubs, restaurants, cafés, gyms and cinemas as the number of cases surges. and urging residents to make only essential trips. Some speculate he may close the Underground. The government says they are only two weeks behind the state of the infection in Italy and foresee the NHS being overrun with patients. The government plans to open a new hospital and is requesting 250,000 volunteers. The government sent letters to 1.5 million at-risk and vulnerable citizens telling them to stay in their homes. Another concern is the over 300,000 who are homeless. The UK speculates the restrictions may last into May.

In Russia, Putin dons a protective suit and respirator to visit a hospital. He praised the work of doctors and health professionals. The government on Tuesday closed nightclubs, cinemas and children’s entertainment centres to slow the spread of the virus. Sergei Sobyanin, a close ally of Putin's and the Mayor of Moscow told Putin at a meeting,“A serious situation is unfolding.” saying the real number of cases was unclear but that they were increasing quickly. “In reality, there are significantly more sick people.” Two senior lawmakers, including Vyacheslav Volodin, the speaker of the lower house of parliament, on Tuesday proposed legislation that would make it an offence punishable by jail time to violate quarantine measures imposed to limit the virus's spread. Under their proposals, people who flout mandatory quarantine could be jailed for up to seven years if their actions led to the death of two or more people, or for up to three years if it led to mass infection.

China is easing its total lockdown after two months as mortality rates begin to fall.

Yesterday, Italy reported 743 new deaths in one day now totalling 6,820, and Spain reported 514 new deaths.

 

[Legacy]

How Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation will spend $3.7 million on Seattle-area coronavirus response

 

[Legacy]

Fears of US drug shortages grow as India locks down to curb the coronavirus (CNBC)

Key Points:
-- China is the world’s largest supplier of active pharmaceutical ingredients.
-- India imports nearly 70% of its APIs from China.
-- Rohit Bhat estimated that Indian pharmaceutical companies supply approximately 40-50% of all U.S. generic drugs.

India has also said that exports of hydroxychloroquine will be limited to fulfilling existing contracts, while certain shipments on humanitarian grounds may also be allowed on a case-by-case basis.

 

[SonofOahu]

He actually has a number of Tweets claiming the United States is where it originated and that we're responsible for it. A bunch of tweets like this:

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Rt: I really think COVID-19 has been here in America for awhile. Do you guys remember how sick everyone was during the holidays/early January? And how everyone was saying they had the “flu” and the flu shot “didn’t work”? <a href="https://t.co/VNkKh6wwKN">https://t.co/VNkKh6wwKN</a></p>— Lijian Zhao 赵立坚 (@zlj517) <a href="https://twitter.com/zlj517/status/1241611441586700288?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 22, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

This is on top of Chinese news stations claiming it came from the United States. This is a concerted disinformation effort by the CCP. They're trying to deflect blame because their inaction + cover ups at the onset of the outbreak in Wuhan are directly responsible for the lack of containment and ultimately this global pandemic.

Ah, got it. Fuck him, then.

 

[SonofOahu]

Sorry to get a little technical, but I worked in the pharmaceutical industry for most of my carrier and the process basically is that the FDA approves a drug for a specific purpose generally after data from phase III trials are completed, submitted to the FDA and reviewed. Once approval is granted the drug can only be marketed for use to treat the condition for which it was initially intended. However since the drug was approved as safe to prescribe, the FDA has no restrictions on prescribing the drug for any purpose, even if that purpose is to treat a condition that it was not specifically approved to treat Using the drug to treat a condition for which it was not initially approved is called “off‐​label” because the label is only allowed to state the condition for which its use was FDA‐​approved and the manufacturer cannot market the drug for any other purpose without facing severe civil penalties. So technically the FDA would not approve the off-label use of Chloroquine as they cannot prevent it.

What this guy said. The whole "label" issue isn't an issue util you are given the black box designation.

 

[SonofOahu]

On a different issue:


https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...avirus-approved-by-60-in-gallup-poll-k86e29ot

I'd like to see a healthcare poll. His incompetence is shielded from the general public because they don't understand exactly how fucked up this whole situation is. Even most people in healthcare were not fully aware of how sunk we were, until the Italy videos started to hit and their PPE started to run out.