COVID-19

[koonja]

IMO..this shutdown needs to end and soon. The economic destruction will dwarf whatever the Chinese virus will bring. People can feel free to stay home if they choose or go out and take their chances. Again, this is just my opinion although i'm not alone.

Rabies and Yellow Fever have each killed more Americans this month.

 

[GowerND11]

Rabies and Yellow Fever have each killed more Americans this month.

You get off on this kind of stuff don't you?

 

[Irish YJ]

Rabies and Yellow Fever have each killed more Americans this month.

Not comparable. Neither are human to human transmission/spread.

 

[bcole2]

Rabies and Yellow Fever have each killed more Americans this month.

Not sure if sarcasm? From the CDC website: “Human rabies cases in the United States are rare, with only 1 to 3 cases reported annually. Twenty-three cases of human rabies have been reported in the United States in the past decade (2008-2017). Eight of these were contracted outside of the U.S. and its territories.”

 

[loomis41973]

Wish we could spend as many resources and handwringing over even 1 of the top 10 causes of death in America EVERY day.

1. Daily Heart Disease Deaths: 1,773
2. Daily Cancer Deaths: 1,641
3. Daily Medical Malpractice Deaths: 685
4. Daily Accident Deaths: 465
5. Daily Lower Respiratory Disease Deaths: 439
6. Daily Stroke Deaths: 401
7. Daily Alzheimer Deaths: 332
8. Daily Diabetes Deaths: 229
9. Daily Drug Deaths: 192
10. Flu: 152

 

[Sea Turtle]

Wish we could spend as many resources and handwringing over even 1 of the top 10 causes of death in America EVERY day.

1. Daily Heart Disease Deaths: 1,773
2. Daily Cancer Deaths: 1,641
3. Daily Medical Malpractice Deaths: 685
4. Daily Accident Deaths: 465
5. Daily Lower Respiratory Disease Deaths: 439
6. Daily Stroke Deaths: 401
7. Daily Alzheimer Deaths: 332
8. Daily Diabetes Deaths: 229
9. Daily Drug Deaths: 192
10. Flu: 152

You say 'flu', and people say 'what'? You say 'Corona virus' and you have a full panic on spring break.

 

[Irish YJ]

Wish we could spend as many resources and handwringing over even 1 of the top 10 causes of death in America EVERY day.

1. Daily Heart Disease Deaths: 1,773
2. Daily Cancer Deaths: 1,641
3. Daily Medical Malpractice Deaths: 685
4. Daily Accident Deaths: 465
5. Daily Lower Respiratory Disease Deaths: 439
6. Daily Stroke Deaths: 401
7. Daily Alzheimer Deaths: 332
8. Daily Diabetes Deaths: 229
9. Daily Drug Deaths: 192
10. Flu: 152

You could outlaw booze, cigs, and McDonalds and knock out at least 50% of those deaths lol.

 

[loomis41973]

You could outlaw booze, cigs, and McDonalds and knock out at least 50% of those deaths lol.

...and yet.

 

[Circa]

I've seen so much of this type of crap. I wish these knuckleheads would press pause on their "outrage" for the time being. I mean hell, if Ilhan Omar of all people can press pause, why can't these nitwits.

Why would they stop If they keep on making millions of dollars off of Knuckleheads that can't figure out the way they are abusing 'us' with the power they hold.
We are the Dogs.
<iframe src="https://giphy.com/embed/q9CUdHKGAaiNG" width="480" height="323" frameBorder="0" class="giphy-embed" allowFullScreen></iframe><p><a href="https://giphy.com/gifs/dog-mrw-q9CUdHKGAaiNG"

 

[Circa]

You could outlaw booze, cigs, and McDonalds and knock out at least 50% of those deaths lol.

LOL. Your probably right but then we would go back to the prohibition era and we would see our kin being strung up on bridges too. The war on drugs hasn't worked because It's always a war on the poor... and I'm poor too.
If anyone thinks stopping drugs from coming over our border Is an answer... Your naive.
If we stopped Booze and Cigs the black market would cause the deathrate to quadruple.

 

[Sea Turtle]

IMO..this shutdown needs to end and soon. The economic destruction will dwarf whatever the Chinese virus will bring. People can feel free to stay home if they choose or go out and take their chances. Again, this is just my opinion although i'm not alone.

Yep. This is where I'm at.

 

[Irish YJ]

https://www.mediterranee-infection....-and-azithromycin-as-a-treatment-of-covid-19/

 

[GowerND11]

https://www.mediterranee-infection....-and-azithromycin-as-a-treatment-of-covid-19/

Very interesting. I also saw something that the Aussies were working on (or with) using other drugs that were having some success. Not sure if they were the same.

 

[Irish YJ]

Very interesting. I also saw something that the Aussies were working on (or with) using other drugs that were having some success. Not sure if they were the same.

Testing has been small, but results are good. And this is already FDA approved.
Roche and another drug company are having success with another drug.

https://www.ft.com/content/11ff91ac-696a-11ea-800d-da70cff6e4d3

 

[Irish YJ]

Two Obama era health appointees got a bit hostile with each other on MSNBC. One saying the fed was too big and needed to get out of the way of local and state gov, the other saying we need more fed oversight. The pro-State gov guy stormed out saying he doesn't have time for this BS.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Former FEMA Administrator Craig Fugate storms out of an MSNBC interview after being criticized <br><br>Andy Slavitt: What you other guest is suggesting here is not helpful. <br><br>Fugate: I don't have time to listen to bull shit, people! <br><br>[storms off] <a href="https://t.co/q3UsM1Id3S">pic.twitter.com/q3UsM1Id3S</a></p>— Lis Power (@LisPower1) <a href="https://twitter.com/LisPower1/status/1240704925912293377?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 19, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

 

[Irish YJ]

Italy's coronavirus deaths surge by 627 in a day, elderly at high risk
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...7-in-a-day-elderly-at-high-risk-idUSKBN2172VL

 

[NDdomer2]

Charts like these don't take things like simple context into consideration. Italy has 60M people, while the US has 330M. Also, nearly 200k Americans visit China each month, and 300k Chinese visit the US each month. That's half a million per month of exposure before Trump locked things down. Italy didn't even make the list of either inbound or outbound from China. In short, we've likely had more than 10x the exposure, and we're 5+ X the population of Italy, so you should expect to see massive jumps ahead of the absolute numbers. And using absolutes in itself instead of a per capita stat is an exceptionally flawed way to look at things and measure.

Again, I'm not trying to downplay, or be argumentative, but some of what is being presented lacks very simple context, and is presented in a way that any decent stats person would jump all over.

Thank you. Looking at cases alone is not a true comparison to say how we are taking with Italy.

 

[Bluto]

Italy's coronavirus deaths surge by 627 in a day, elderly at high risk
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...7-in-a-day-elderly-at-high-risk-idUSKBN2172VL

Seems like older males and smokers in general account for a large percentage of sick and deceased.

 

[Wild Bill]

Wish we could spend as many resources and handwringing over even 1 of the top 10 causes of death in America EVERY day.

1. Daily Heart Disease Deaths: 1,773
2. Daily Cancer Deaths: 1,641
3. Daily Medical Malpractice Deaths: 685
4. Daily Accident Deaths: 465
5. Daily Lower Respiratory Disease Deaths: 439
6. Daily Stroke Deaths: 401
7. Daily Alzheimer Deaths: 332
8. Daily Diabetes Deaths: 229
9. Daily Drug Deaths: 192
10. Flu: 152

What's your breaking point on this virus with respect to deaths? At what point would you consider an economic shutdown worthwhile?

 

[Wild Bill]

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/20/coronavirus-rescue-checks-may-shortchange-americans-on-social-security.html

Sorry BGIF

 

[IrishLax]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Latest case trajectories for major countries: <br><br>• US case-count still surging<br>• Italy-scale outbreaks remain inevitable for most countries. It remains shocking to me that countries aren’t acting earlier<br><br>• Read more here about flattening curves in Asia: <a href="https://t.co/7A0ICnzEVm">https://t.co/7A0ICnzEVm</a> <a href="https://t.co/VepqsoFsTp">pic.twitter.com/VepqsoFsTp</a></p>— John Burn-Murdoch (@jburnmurdoch) <a href="https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1241092055494995972?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 20, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

 

[Irish YJ]

Seems like older males and smokers in general account for a large percentage of sick and deceased.

There are a lot of things working against Italy. Age profile, distrust of gov, culture, population density, and a whole lot more.

And it's health care system, which is ranked top 5, and actually number one in the world by many, is simply not near what it's made out to be. I think after this whole thing is past us, grading of health care systems and attitudes about what works and what doesn't, will change a lot. Here in the US, it's become very apparent how badly the FDA needs a cleansing and overhaul.

On population density.....

Thank you. Looking at cases alone is not a true comparison to say how we are taking with Italy.

There's just so much wrong with most of the charts and graphs put out by MSM these days. That Vox graph is not even grade school correct in it's approach.

 

[IrishLax]

There are a lot of things working against Italy. Age profile, distrust of gov, culture, population density, and a whole lot more.

And it's health care system, which is ranked top 5, and actually number one in the world by many, is simply not near what it's made out to be. I think after this whole thing is past us, grading of health care systems and attitudes about what works and what doesn't, will change a lot. Here in the US, it's become very apparent how badly the FDA needs a cleansing and overhaul.

What it really shows is that it doesn't matter how good your healthcare is if you run out of doctors and beds and supplies. It's still shocking to me that there is any debate about the protocols being put in place. The reason why all these countries are going through quarantines and lockdowns is because you have to flatten the curve before your reach the point of no return. Nobody wants the corresponding economic ruin, but the alternative is collapse of your healthcare system and a different kind of societal/economic upheaval.

None of the concern has anything to do with a variable mortality rates, it has everything to do with making sure you have the capacity to treat very sick people. Sick people who can saved through things like intubation, etc... which you can't do that if you run out of supplies/people/infrastructure to administer required treatments.

 

[Irish YJ]

What it really shows is that it doesn't matter how good your healthcare is if you run out of doctors and beds and supplies. It's still shocking to me that there is any debate about the protocols being put in place. The reason why all these countries are going through quarantines and lockdowns is because you have to flatten the curve before your reach the point of no return. Nobody wants the corresponding economic ruin, but the alternative is collapse of your healthcare system and a different kind of societal/economic upheaval.

None of the concern has anything to do with a variable mortality rates, it has everything to do with making sure you have the capacity to treat very sick people. Sick people who can saved through things like intubation, etc... which you can't do that if you run out of supplies/people/infrastructure to administer required treatments.

I absolutely agree on needed protocols to slow the spread. I disagree though that health care system type and approach doesn't matter. SKO and other countries for example have done this dance before. SKO has streamlined regs (as opposed to our bloated and slow FDA) and partnered closely with the private sector instead of relying on big gov. In other words, speed. Italy is bloated and is full on big gov, which by the way, people don't trust at all.

And YOU may be concerned about capacity to treat the sick (which is absolutely critical), but these graphs tell us zero about capacity stress. All it shows it absolute numbers since "case 100". Doesn't factor in per capita, population or population density, hospital capacity as it relates % of population, etc... Those are very basic things that are required to understand spread rate and capacity stress. Instead, it's a simpleton look of cases and deaths void of any context or statistical meaning.

 

[BGIF]

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/20/coronavirus-rescue-checks-may-shortchange-americans-on-social-security.html

Sorry BGIF

Thanks for thinking of me, W.B.

From what I'm hearing we should get something as we're net taxpayers. I'm on SSI and my wife is on SSA Disability. BUT, I have to take RMD, 401K Required Minimum Distribution annually which is taxable and if we buy something substantial we sometimes have to sell stock and pay tax on our hard "unearned" income. That won't be a problem this year.


By the way my wife and I are willing to be adopted if anybody is looking for dependents.

And if Loomis gets his wish and the old people are successfully eliminated so he's not inconvenienced, our house, on a couple of acres, will be available. Mortgage is paid off. We have no dependents except our 4 legged children. AND, I do have more than a month's or two's worth of T.P., foodstuffs, sanitizer, shotguns, pistol, and ammo, etc, as I was expecting CoVid to be bad and started "prepping" back in January a little at a time.

With our combined comorbidities, CAD, CKD, DM II, Lupus, Parkinson's, RA, Immune Deficiency, Strokes, etc, etc, the red dots targets on our foreheads look like both NCIS and the Swat Team have us lit up like a Turkey Shoot.

One day at a time.

 

[BGIF]

Interesting interview on Martha McCollum's show tonight. Dr Jacob Glanville's whose company in developing a Compassionate Antibody TREATMENT, NOT a vaccine where most of the work seems to be focused. The article that accompanies the interview says that expect the treatment in 3 to 4 weeks. HOWEVER, he doesn't expect it to be delivered until the Fall. IF it works it we still won't be receiving it for 24 weeks ... or so. 6 months.

https://www.foxnews.com/media/dr-jacob-glanville-antibody-neutralize-coronavirus

 

[SonofOahu]

There are a couple of things I would like to point out regarding some of the arguments I'm seeing in this thread.

Koon - with all due respect to your physician friend, an orthopod is probably one of the worst types of physicians to discuss a pandemic issue with. They are specialists whose worldview stops at the edge of a blade, drill, or saw. Also, you are seeing this issue from an insurance company's actuarial analysis. Like I said, in certain numbers and figures, this disease does not look bad. It's not as deadly as Ebola, it's not as effective as SARS, but it's much, much worse in the "human" aspect of medicine.

We are witnessing the collapse of the illusion that first-world medicine will save all. COVID-19 is the viral version of the Powell Doctrine: it is using decisive force against its enemy and overwhelming the systems it is facing. Like Lax pointed out, the problem is that there will be a significant shortage of resources to combat this virus. Here's something close to "home":

https://www.deaconess.com/How-to-make-a-Face-Mask

That isn't some high-school project, that's a hospital asking its community for help in sewing homemade masks because it was running out of PPE. If nothing else scares and saddens you, that really should. It should also really, really anger you that our federal government has fallen asleep at the wheel in the fight against pandemic disease. Not going into the obvious political arguments, there is absolutely no reason that our Strategic Supply should be so poorly managed.

I am in charge of hospital operations, so let me tell you what this week has been like. Besides the constant planning for the impending crush, I was on a state-wide call where our hospital association told us that some facilities in Washington State were triaging vents. They are in crisis mode. Anyone over 80 y/o was not going to go on a vent; he/she was going to be discharged home because the hospitals needed to use the resource on patients with a better chance for recovery. I read through the disaster plan of a hospital on another island. Their plan calls for similar resource-saving decisions should they reach their overflow capacity. Anyone over 65 has seven (7) days to show improvements on a vent, or the vent will be pulled and redeployed to another patient. The gallows-humor of this plan is that it makes Sarah Palin's death panels come to life!

We are getting our "Dooms Day" plans in place, and we'll need to create similar policies for pulling equipment from patients who are losing the fight. We are also planning quick construction on the unit that will be our last stand. We figure we can shove 30 beds in a unit made for 20, in case we get overrun with patients. Never, in a million years, did I think my day-job would include deciding which person was going to possibly live and which person would definitely die.

So, this is the part of this whole situation that the numbers don't play out. The professionals on the front line see this for what it is: an impending tsunami of life and death that will most likely crush us because of a combination of willful stupidity and understandable ignorance. Sure, two million deaths doesn't sound like a lot. Two million deaths that you are powerless against despite your best efforts is soul crushing.

 

[SonofOahu]

This is an interesting virus. The symptoms are more insidious. It seems like it starts like most colds - sore throat, low grade fever, headache and nasal congestion. Then 7-10 days later the respiratory distress starts for those that get more severe illness.

This is also why it's so difficult for people to wrap their heads around how dangerous it can be. It's also why we are 2-3 weeks behind it right now. Well that and the lack of testing. The testing and ppe are going to be our biggest regrets when we look back on this crisis.

So, doctor, have you come around to my side of the fence, yet?

 

[Legacy]

Former CDC director: There's a long war ahead and our Covid-19 response must adapt

A family member, who is a provider, had a difficult discussion with her mom, who is a long-term asthmatic which can be difficult to control. She asked her if she would want a ventilator to go to someone younger if it came to that choice. Better to have that discussion now.

Hospitals set up coronavirus tents, seek emergency credit and $100 billion in US aid as they face onslaught of cases

Some providers are not going home to families but staying with others in so-called Dirty Rooms.

 

[InKellyWeTrust]

So, doctor, have you come around to my side of the fence, yet?

If this were about "sides", then yes. But the issue we had a few weeks ago was lack of available information. I can tell you every doctor I talked to had a similar perspective then. If this information was disseminated to people on the front lines we could have shifted momentum sooner and implored for testing sooner. This is the problem with our health care system. The ones planning and the ones doing are often not privy to the same information. If hospitals were really planning for this for months, as my hospital admins have repeatedly told us, then why the hell are we in this situation now? Who the hell let this happen? Where is the PPE? Where are the tests? How can an economic system as robust as health care sit idly by until we are overcome with the reality of being overwhelmed? These are the questions our healthcare system will be in trial for when this is over.