COVID-19

[BleedBlueGold]

Interesting story from a friend over the weekend. Take it how you want...

They've been absolutely terrified of Covid and have self-quarantined since early March. Work from home, grocery delivery, no friends, no family, etc. On a whim, decided to get the antibody test and they all came back positive. Were told their exposure could've been within the last month. Never got sick, no symptoms, haven't been around a single person outside of their own household....yet test positive for antibodies.

Doesn't seem legit to me.

 

[irishff1014]

Interesting story from a friend over the weekend. Take it how you want...

They've been absolutely terrified of Covid and have self-quarantined since early March. Work from home, grocery delivery, no friends, no family, etc. On a whim, decided to get the antibody test and they all came back positive. Were told their exposure could've been within the last month. Never got sick, no symptoms, haven't been around a single person outside of their own household....yet test positive for antibodies.

Doesn't seem legit to me.

I read a few articles that the antibody test have some accuracy issues. I don't know how the test works in showing signs but how can they tell when you got it? I wonder if they got when all this first started. I would be willing to be the number of people that had it is equal to or more than the ones that showed symptoms.

 

[ab2cmiller]

Interesting story from a friend over the weekend. Take it how you want...

They've been absolutely terrified of Covid and have self-quarantined since early March. Work from home, grocery delivery, no friends, no family, etc. On a whim, decided to get the antibody test and they all came back positive. Were told their exposure could've been within the last month. Never got sick, no symptoms, haven't been around a single person outside of their own household....yet test positive for antibodies.

Doesn't seem legit to me.

Not sure how they could tell from an antibody test that the exposure could've been in the last month.

Do they live in an apartment where there is a shared ventilation system with other occupants in the building?

Always a chance that they got it early on ..... or this Covid thing has been around much longer than what we are led to believe. They tested waste water samples from towns in Italy and samples from December 18th were positive, a full two months earlier than the first confirmed case.
https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-06-virus-italy-december.html

 

[Valpodoc85]

Just a guess, likely to be a false positive. This means they have antibodies that are like Cov-2 antibodies but are not Cov-2 antibodies. The covid antibody test have been rushed to market and we are unsure as to the likelihood of false positives. This usually gets worked out in later testing when bringing a test to market. If they are being told they were infected in the last month it’s because IgM was positive. It is a first reactor. IgG shows up later

 

[ab2cmiller]

Just a guess, likely to be a false positive. This means they have antibodies that are like Cov-2 antibodies but are not Cov-2 antibodies. The covid antibody test have been rushed to market and we are unsure as to the likelihood of false positives. This usually gets worked out in later testing when bringing a test to market. If they are being told they were infected in the last month it’s because IgM was positive. It is a first reactor. IgG shows up later

Thanks for the info doc.

 

[Irishize]

Just a guess, likely to be a false positive. This means they have antibodies that are like Cov-2 antibodies but are not Cov-2 antibodies. The covid antibody test have been rushed to market and we are unsure as to the likelihood of false positives. This usually gets worked out in later testing when bringing a test to market. If they are being told they were infected in the last month it’s because IgM was positive. It is a first reactor. IgG shows up later

Thanks for your insight. I think this is the most logical conclusion based on what details were provided.

 

[notredomer23]

Little COVID anecdote below:

One of my brother's best friends and his wife went to Spain around Christmas. They were very ill for about a week when they got back with COVID symptoms (remember this is first week of January so this possibility was on no one's radar). She has been battling cancer (forget which one but maybe esophageal) for a few years now in and out of remission so she has a compromised immune system. He actually got it worse than she did though. Anyway, they take antibody tests about a week ago and each test was positive with showing the antibodies present since early January. Turns out, she was on the dexamathasone at the time and she believes that's why her symptoms were mild.

 

[BleedBlueGold]

I read a few articles that the antibody test have some accuracy issues. I don't know how the test works in showing signs but how can they tell when you got it? I wonder if they got when all this first started. I would be willing to be the number of people that had it is equal to or more than the ones that showed symptoms.

Not sure how they could tell from an antibody test that the exposure could've been in the last month.

Do they live in an apartment where there is a shared ventilation system with other occupants in the building?

Always a chance that they got it early on ..... or this Covid thing has been around much longer than what we are led to believe. They tested waste water samples from towns in Italy and samples from December 18th were positive, a full two months earlier than the first confirmed case.
https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-06-virus-italy-december.html

Just a guess, likely to be a false positive. This means they have antibodies that are like Cov-2 antibodies but are not Cov-2 antibodies. The covid antibody test have been rushed to market and we are unsure as to the likelihood of false positives. This usually gets worked out in later testing when bringing a test to market. If they are being told they were infected in the last month it’s because IgM was positive. It is a first reactor. IgG shows up later

False positive was my first thought. They literally have been boarded up in their own home since early March. To their recollection haven't been sick or had signs/symptoms even dating back to early this winter or last year.

 

[Irish#1]

The wife and I are getting tested Wednesday. She had some symptoms back in early April but has been fine since. She has asthma and HBP so I think it's a good idea. I've not had any symptoms, but agreed to get tested since it's free and they are encouraging us older folks to get tested.

Watch the results come back positive for me and negative for her! lol

 

[Irish#1]

From Irish Illustrated

As of Monday, 91 Notre Dame football student-athletes have received Covid-19 testing. Of those 91, one tested positive for Covid-19, according to University Physician Dr. Matt Leiszler. The football student-athlete, who is asymptomatic, is self-isolating and his parents have been informed.

Furthermore, through contact tracing, four football student-athletes are in self-quarantine, all of whom are asymptomatic at this time.

Of the 91 football student-athletes who were tested, four tested positive for the Covid-19 antibody.

Additionally, 50 staff members (i.e. coaches, athletic trainers, student staff, etc.) were administered Covid-19 testing. All of the staff members tested negative.

 

[Irishize]

While The NY Times has lost credibility in some areas, this is a great interactive piece on the spread of COVID_19. And they were fair & balanced IMO as I believe 100% of the “fault” doesn’t lie w/ either political party. That said, Reps will still blame Dem governors & mayors & Dems will still blame Trump for everything negative that’s ever happened in the history of the country.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-spread.html

 

[Irishize]

WTH CDC?!? The “Science” Community has taken a credibility hit during this pandemic.

https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/499085-cdc-acknowledges-mixing-up-coronavirus-testing-data

 

[TorontoGold]

While The NY Times has lost credibility in some areas, this is a great interactive piece on the spread of COVID_19. And they were fair & balanced IMO as I believe 100% of the “fault” doesn’t lie w/ either political party. That said, Reps will still blame Dem governors & mayors & Dems will still blame Trump for everything negative that’s ever happened in the history of the country.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-spread.html

I think it's fair to blast Cuomo, his nursing home move for example seemed to lead to a bunch of deaths. DeSantis having his temper tantrum a while back looks pretty stupid now. Don't know what's happening in Cali right now, seems like the Bay area is doing well and the rest of the state is just blowing up. Texas appears to have opened up too soon. Hopefully Arizona can get a handle on things.

Seems pretty silly to claim it was a Blue State only problem like some had claimed in April.

 

[Irish YJ]

I think it's fair to blast Cuomo, his nursing home move for example seemed to lead to a bunch of deaths. DeSantis having his temper tantrum a while back looks pretty stupid now. Don't know what's happening in Cali right now, seems like the Bay area is doing well and the rest of the state is just blowing up. Texas appears to have opened up too soon. Hopefully Arizona can get a handle on things.

Seems pretty silly to claim it was a Blue State only problem like some had claimed in April.

I'm not surprised at all about FL. Given it's a destination place, and lately an "escape", I personally thought it would see one of the biggest second waves.

I have friends and family with condos and houses in the Naples and Sanibel area. Many of them were down there from Indy in the last couple of months. One has been down there since early May. They said that they've never seen so many folks from NY and NJ. Not saying it's a spring break environment, but simply a ton of folks are down there getting out of the NE. I had planed to take friends and family down for two weeks the last week in May, but canceled.

It's really more about deaths though. Early on when FL had a lot of cases, they had very little deaths per capita unlike other states. If that continues (low death rate) even with the cases spiking, they're doing something right. I also think we're seeing a lot more testing catching asymptomatic folks at the same time. Time will tell.

 

[Irishize]

I think it's fair to blast Cuomo, his nursing home move for example seemed to lead to a bunch of deaths. DeSantis having his temper tantrum a while back looks pretty stupid now. Don't know what's happening in Cali right now, seems like the Bay area is doing well and the rest of the state is just blowing up. Texas appears to have opened up too soon. Hopefully Arizona can get a handle on things.

Seems pretty silly to claim it was a Blue State only problem like some had claimed in April.

I’m sure there were as many anti-Trumpers being silly in April claiming it was all his fault. Goes both ways. No side has moral superiority.

As far as TX & AZ, I think the “reporting” needs to be clarified b/c I’m finding different feedback from reports directly from their respective state’s media.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">1/ “We saw just a rash of people that came in for relatively treatable conditions that had just waited to the point that it deteriorated. That’s kind of added to the ICU stress on top of just having the COVID patients.” Dr. Robert Hancock, Texas College of Emergency Physicians <a href="https://t.co/2kM9LfOfeI">https://t.co/2kM9LfOfeI</a></p>— Aaron Ginn (@aginnt) <a href="https://twitter.com/aginnt/status/1275868742287634435?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">June 24, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

 

[TorontoGold]

I'm not surprised at all about FL. Given it's a destination place, and lately an "escape", I personally thought it would see one of the biggest second waves.

I have friends and family with condos and houses in the Naples and Sanibel area. Many of them were down there from Indy in the last couple of months. One has been down there since early May. They said that they've never seen so many folks from NY and NJ. Not saying it's a spring break environment, but simply a ton of folks are down there getting out of the NE. I had planed to take friends and family down for two weeks the last week in May, but canceled.

It's really more about deaths though. Early on when FL had a lot of cases, they had very little deaths per capita unlike other states. If that continues (low death rate) even with the cases spiking, they're doing something right. I also think we're seeing a lot more testing catching asymptomatic folks at the same time. Time will tell.

Yup, I agree (hell hath frozen over?!).

My family is putting our place in Naples on the market once this wraps up (personally I think it's an overreaction, as Naples is a beautiful place).

Seems like hospitalization rates are picking up in Florida, which will lead to more deaths unfortunately.
The local Tampa news has a decent infographic on the hospitalization rate in this article https://www.wtsp.com/article/news/h...eaths/67-4bbd0c35-6742-4f51-a59a-ea1d101f54ea

 

[notredomer23]

Any idea who is being hospitalized in Florida, Texas, etc? Is it shifting to the younger demo also or are they just spreading it?

 

[yankeehater]

I think it's fair to blast Cuomo, his nursing home move for example seemed to lead to a bunch of deaths. DeSantis having his temper tantrum a while back looks pretty stupid now. Don't know what's happening in Cali right now, seems like the Bay area is doing well and the rest of the state is just blowing up. Texas appears to have opened up too soon. Hopefully Arizona can get a handle on things.

Seems pretty silly to claim it was a Blue State only problem like some had claimed in April.

Cali has been an "S" show for a while. From LA County first not having the resources to test the homeless so they sent the fire departments, who are not professionally trained to do so, out to administer the Covid tests. Unfortunately, the tests they were provided were not the rapid response ones so when the results came back in 24-48 hours they had no way to locate the homeless who were positive.

LA Mayor Garcetti contradicted their new case numbers 3 times in one speech yesterday versus what their website stated. The numbers ranged from 500 to 2,500.

And also people have been flooding through the border from Mexico as their hospitals got overrun. A nurse from a hospital in Riverside posted a video, which I can no longer find, telling the story of her hospital. She claims from one shift to the next her hospital went from empty to full of undocumented covid patients and now there is no room for local residents if they become infected. I posted a story of similar occurrences down at the border.

https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/worl...erwhelmed-by-patients-from-mexico/ar-BB14FW2P

 

[Irish YJ]

Yup, I agree (hell hath frozen over?!).

My family is putting our place in Naples on the market once this wraps up (personally I think it's an overreaction, as Naples is a beautiful place).

Seems like hospitalization rates are picking up in Florida, which will lead to more deaths unfortunately.
The local Tampa news has a decent infographic on the hospitalization rate in this article https://www.wtsp.com/article/news/h...eaths/67-4bbd0c35-6742-4f51-a59a-ea1d101f54ea

Hospitalization rates are up a good amount, but ICU rates not near as much IIRC.

I don't think the deaths per capita will really correspond perfectly to hospitalization rates, just like it didn't earlier this year, especially compared to other states.

Naples and SW FL property markets are some of the best in the country. If they're going to sell, I'd wait for the post Covid rebound. I almost bought a vacation place there about 7 years ago. I didn't, and it was resold last summer for 4x the sell price 7 years earlier. Of course not all places see that type of increase, but the market has been pretty insane the last decade.

 

[Irish#1]

I think it's fair to blast Cuomo, his nursing home move for example seemed to lead to a bunch of deaths. DeSantis having his temper tantrum a while back looks pretty stupid now. Don't know what's happening in Cali right now, seems like the Bay area is doing well and the rest of the state is just blowing up. Texas appears to have opened up too soon. Hopefully Arizona can get a handle on things.

Seems pretty silly to claim it was a Blue State only problem like some had claimed in April.

We have offices in Waco and Greenville. Per our employees, Texas never really closed. Sounds like the guidelines weren't followed by many and they are reaping what they sowed now.

 

[RDU Irish]

Hospitalization rates are up a good amount, but ICU rates not near as much IIRC.

I don't think the deaths per capita will really correspond perfectly to hospitalization rates, just like it didn't earlier this year, especially compared to other states.

Naples and SW FL property markets are some of the best in the country. If they're going to sell, I'd wait for the post Covid rebound. I almost bought a vacation place there about 7 years ago. I didn't, and it was resold last summer for 4x the sell price 7 years earlier. Of course not all places see that type of increase, but the market has been pretty insane the last decade.

Housing demand is hopping here in NC - coastal areas from what I hear are hot. Combo of work from home (i.e. anywhere) migrating out of cities and soon to retire securing future non-city haven. Those with means plucking second homes to use now and keep for later.

 

[RDU Irish]

Hospitalization rates had nowhere to go but up in a lot of places - then you have increased testing driving more "cases". Labor and Delivery for example - wife has had two COVID positives in the last few weeks, both asymptomatic that would not have been tested a month ago but now they test everyone. I am sure they count as COVID hospitalizations for their 2-3 day stay.

 

[Legacy93]

Hospitalization rates had nowhere to go but up in a lot of places - then you have increased testing driving more "cases". Labor and Delivery for example - wife has had two COVID positives in the last few weeks, both asymptomatic that would not have been tested a month ago but now they test everyone. I am sure they count as COVID hospitalizations for their 2-3 day stay.

To your point about hospitalization rates having nowhere to go but up, I've been struggling with how most reported data points are presented without context or comparison and so are useless.

For example, if I say "hospitalization bed usage has risen to 90% of capacity over the past month", you would rightfully be concerned because only 10% capacity remains and a continuation of the apparent trend is going to lead to a real problem. However, if I change that comment to read "hospitalization bed usage has risen to 90% of capacity over the past month, consistent with the typical capacity usage for this time of year", I would think you'd have a lot more hope that things won't spiral out of control. I'd hope that more news outlets / public servants would put time into contextualizing stories and data, but I guess fear sells and consolidates power.

 

[TorontoGold]

To your point about hospitalization rates having nowhere to go but up, I've been struggling with how most reported data points are presented without context or comparison and so are useless.

For example, if I say "hospitalization bed usage has risen to 90% of capacity over the past month", you would rightfully be concerned because only 10% capacity remains and a continuation of the apparent trend is going to lead to a real problem. However, if I change that comment to read "hospitalization bed usage has risen to 90% of capacity over the past month, consistent with the typical capacity usage for this time of year", I would think you'd have a lot more hope that things won't spiral out of control. I'd hope that more news outlets / public servants would put time into contextualizing stories and data, but I guess fear sells and consolidates power.

Is there any good dashboards or models out there that layers the hospitalization rates over historical norms? Would be very helpful to just see the facts.

 

[Irish YJ]

Is there any good dashboards or models out there that layers the hospitalization rates over historical norms? Would be very helpful to just see the facts.

I posted a few a while back. I can't remember the name of the best one. The second was the IHME site.

 

[PerthDomer]

Houston has shut down elective day surgery, is admitting adults to a peds hospital, and is up to 100% capacity. Arizona's test positivity is 25%. Florida 15%. Those are concerning and not driven by more testing. The concerning thing is as young people socialize/work this will break into older groups as it has in sweden. Remember, hospitalizations lag outpatient diagnosis by a week or 2, ICU by 2 weeks, deaths by 3.

 

[TorontoGold]

I posted a few a while back. I can't remember the name of the best one. The second was the IHME site.

Yeah IHME one is good, but doesnt layer with past years data to account for any variance.

 

[Legacy93]

Houston has shut down elective day surgery, is admitting adults to a peds hospital, and is up to 100% capacity. Arizona's test positivity is 25%. Florida 15%. Those are concerning and not driven by more testing. The concerning thing is as young people socialize/work this will break into older groups as it has in sweden. Remember, hospitalizations lag outpatient diagnosis by a week or 2, ICU by 2 weeks, deaths by 3.

Completely agree there are most certainly localized issues within certain cities & states. I'm not sure where you are seeing Houston is at 100% capacity (is that just Houston metro?); when I took a look at the TX online dashboard there is 15% capacity remaining in the Houston "Trauma Service Area". Either way, I hope more people speak about this the way you are - identifying there are areas within the US that are experiencing issues but the issues are localized, not globalized. It isn't dissimilar from the EU where US States = EU Countries -- some where hit harder than others at first and now its hitting hard elsewhere.

https://txdshs.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/0d8bdf9be927459d9cb11b9eaef6101f

 

[zelezo vlk]

Texas looks to be shutting back down or at least easing back into some restrictions. Governor Abbott announced that bars are closing and restaurants will be back to reduced capacity. Grocery stores have begun requiring masks again.

 

[Legacy93]

Is there any good dashboards or models out there that layers the hospitalization rates over historical norms? Would be very helpful to just see the facts.

I don't believe historical hospitalizations levels are as easy to find as the current rates (given no one really cared about it as much as we do now). I focused on Houston and found some historical data from 2016 that says average occupancy (over the year) was around 68%, which compares to roughly 85% now. So, that certainly indicates some potential for concern, but again that 68% is only for average over the year and could fluctuate seasonally. Sorry I don't have a better answer handy.